Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Forge, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:24PM Friday December 6, 2019 12:09 AM EST (05:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:50PMMoonset 2:16AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 931 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Overnight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers late.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of snow early, then snow likely late in the morning. A chance of snow showers early in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow Sunday night.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain during the day, then rain showers likely Monday night.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then lake effect snow showers likely Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Forge, NY
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location: 43.68, -74.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 060331 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1031 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. Snow showers early this evening will diminish tonight. Then, an Alberta Clipper will bring a widespread light snow event during the daytime tomorrow with some impacts to the evening commute expected. High pressure returns for the weekend leading to dry and cooler conditions.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 10 PM, light snow showers and flurries diminished this evening as weak ridging at the surface continues to build in. Winds have weaken except across the Berkshires where winds are being enhanced by the terrain. Winds here will weaken as the night progresses. Some partial clearing has occurred. With the deep snow pack temperatures are expected to drop into the mid teens to lower 20s. Higher level clouds stream in ahead of an approaching clipper late at night.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A potent shortwave progresses towards Lake Erie and Lake Ontario by 12z Friday with warm air advection increasing over New York as the surface low's warm front advances into the region. Isentropic lift intensifies quickly over eastern NY after 12z which should allow snow to overspread the region from west to east by mid-late morning Friday. An area of enhanced 850-700mb FGEN looks to develop midday into the early afternoon hours along and north of I-90 and the latest HREF guidance shows increased probabilities for greater than one inch per hour snowfall rates for the Mohawk/Schoharie Valley into the Upper Hudson Valley and southern VT and the northern Berkshires. BUFKIT sounding from GFL also shows good lift through the dendritic snow growth zone during this period suggesting the potential for moderate to heavy snowfall rates. The BUFKIT sounding from ALB shows the the dendritic snow growth zone higher up in the atmosphere and may be higher than the layer with the best lift. Areas south of I-90 should see snow at the onset of the event Friday morning but snow should mix with rain towards midday/early PM as the warm nose impinges up the Hudson Valley and into NW CT. Some areas could even turn dry.

While initial snow ratios for areas along and north of I-90 should be high (15-17:1) leading to a lighter/fluffy snow at the start of the event, snow rates could decrease (11-13:1) heading into the afternoon as warm air increases aloft. Surface temperatures during the event should struggle to warm given the fact that snow begins in the morning and wet-bulbing diabatic cooling processes should limit the diurnal spread. Generally expecting highs along and north of I-90 to only reach into the upper 20s to near 32. However, areas south of I-90 which get into the warm sector should rise into the mid-30s.

The best warm air advection exits western New England by mid- afternoon which should end the chances for moderate/heavy snowfall rates. The cold front associated with our Alberta Clipper quickly pushes through the region towards sunset with snow ending from west to east early evening. Winds could also turn breezy with gusts 15-20mph in the wake of the front. Impacts to the evening commute are possible from this event especially in areas where roads and/or sidewalks are untreated.

Total snowfall amounts expected to range 1 to 3 inches with up to 4-5 inches possible in southern Vermont, northern Berkshires and northern Taconics. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for these areas. Heading south of I-90, we could see a tight gradient set-up south of Capital District as snow totals decrease quickly where the warm nose impinges into the ALY CWA. Generally expecting snow amounts south of I-90 to range from coatings up to an inch. Higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches in the eastern Catskills and southern Berkshire County.

After some scattered lake enhanced snow shower activity Friday evening, expecting gradual clearing and drying Friday night as high pressure builds into the Northeast. Dry and cooler weather returns Saturday and Saturday night. High temperatures Saturday in the upper 20s to low 30s with overnight lows turning much colder. Clear skies and a deep snow pack should facilitate radiational cooling with lows falling into the single digits and teens.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Mild temperatures and rain early next week.

We are expecting to end the weekend with fair weather and continued below normal temperatures as ridging dominates at the surface and aloft. Aloft the ridge is expected to crest over the region Sunday while at the surface the high is expected to shift off the coast. A southerly flow about the departing high will begin a moderation of our temperatures. After a very cold night temperatures are expected to rebound into the 30s with only 20s limited to mainly above 1500 feet.

Guidance continues to develop a low pressure system over the Southern Plains from southern stream energy then and tracks it northeastward across the Great Lakes region and Saint Lawrence Valley through early next week with interaction with northern stream energy. There are timing and strengthen differs however there is consistency our region will be in the warm side of the system. At this time, looking at temperatures warming above freezing on Monday and remaining above freezing into Tuesday night until colder air is ushered back in with the passage of the system's cold front.

Based on the current forecast expecting precipitation to overspread the region Monday morning with some now initially as it should be cold enough then rain through Tuesday. 12Z GEFS guidance indicates 850 mb temperatures of +1-2 SD, 850 mb winds +2-3 SD and PWATS +2-3 SD in the warm sector just ahead the system's cold front. Forecasting highs in the 40s Monday with 30s limited to across portions of the southern Adirondacks, lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Monday night and highs Tuesday lower 40s to lower 50s. Expecting ripening of the deep snowpack due to the mild temperatures and rainfall with at least some runoff and rises on area waterways. However it is too early to determine if there will be a flooding threat during this period.

Seasonable temperatures will be ushered back into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday in the wake of the cold front, however a secondary front is expected to cross the region ushering in even colder air in. Highs Wednesday in the 20s and lower 30s with lows mainly between 10 and 20 degrees with single digits above 1500 feet and highs Thursday only in 20s with teens above 1500 feet. In addition to the cold, low level flow is expected to become favorable of lake effect snows across the Tug Hill Plateau into portions of the western Adirondacks.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The bands of light snow showers and flurries extending across the eastern Catskills into portions of the mid Hudson Valley will continue to diminish as weak ridging at the surface builds in tonight. The west-northwest flow will diminish becoming light overnight. Lake enhanced clouds will remain across much of the local area overnight with higher level clouds streaming in ahead of an approaching clipper late at night/early Friday morning.

The clipper is expected to pass over the region during the day Friday bringing a light snowfall to the area. IFR conditions are expected to develop by mid-day at KALB, KGFL and KPSF as the snow moves in. The snow is expected to begin to taper off late in the day into the early evening with an improvement to MVFR. At KPOU VFR conditions are expected with snow remaining the north.

By Friday morning a light southerly flow will have developed and it's expected to continue through the day with a shift to the southwest-west with the passage of the clipper.

Outlook .

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

HYDROLOGY. Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday, so little melting and/or runoff is expected through the next several days. A period of light snow is expected on Friday. This will allow the snow pack to be maintained and for some ice to build on shallow waterways, especially during the overnight hours.

Temperatures will likely rise to above normal values by Monday into Tuesday, with periods of rain likely. This will likely lead to at least some ripening and melting of the snowpack and runoff, although it is too early to determine if there will be a flooding threat during this period. Rises on area waterways are likely during this timeframe.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for NYZ054. MA . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for MAZ001. VT . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for VTZ013.

SYNOPSIS . Speciale NEAR TERM . IAA/Speciale SHORT TERM . Speciale LONG TERM . IAA AVIATION . IAA/JPV HYDROLOGY . Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 82 mi63 min 27°F 1016.5 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 97 mi51 min WNW 16 G 22 1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY48 mi76 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast27°F23°F85%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRME

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2 days agoN4N4NW8N5CalmCalmNW3CalmNW6W7NW6W9W11W15W12W10NW4NW3CalmCalmN3CalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:05 AM EST     4.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:12 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:54 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:43 PM EST     4.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:26 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.44.13.32.41.710.2-0.20.51.72.93.84.34.43.93.12.51.91.20.40.51.52.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:12 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:44 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:35 PM EST     4.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:16 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.443.22.31.60.90.1-0.10.61.93.13.84.44.43.832.41.810.40.61.62.73.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.