Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lowville, NY
December 10, 2023 10:47 PM EST (03:47 UTC)
Sunrise 7:25AM Sunset 4:27PM Moonrise 4:54AM Moonset 2:34PM
LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 338 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain through early afternoon, then rain showers likely late. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain in the evening, then snow and rain overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain through early afternoon, then rain showers likely late. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain in the evening, then snow and rain overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LOZ005
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 110222 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 922 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A wave of low pressure will bring rain changing to wet snow tonight across Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region, with snow continuing through Monday. Greater accumulations will be restricted to the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and Adirondacks. Farther west, lake effect snow showers will bring a spotty few inches of accumulation to the higher terrain east of Lake Erie late tonight through Monday. Elsewhere, expect just a few snow showers with minimal accumulation from Buffalo to Rochester.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
IR satellite imagery showing a maturing baroclinic leaf over the eastern US as a wave of low pressure begins to deepen and ripple along the frontal boundary now located just east of our area. Radar imagery showing a solid shield of precipitation moving northward across central and eastern NY, with the western edge located just east of the Genesee Valley. Precipitation type is still all rain at lower elevations as of 9PM, with wet snow now falling across higher terrain above about 1500ft. The most widespread synoptic precipitation will remain from the Finger Lakes into Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region tonight.
A wave of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will continue to deepen with help from the right entrance region of a 250mb 150kt jet tonight. Although the axis of heavier precipitation will be east of the region, the shield of moisture will continue to clip the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight. Cold air advection will continue with lowering freezing levels allowing the transition to snow by mid to late evening across high terrain, gradually decending to lower elevations through the night. As the low moves along I-95 overnight, strong forcing will be confined to an area of frontogenesis east of the forecast area, however large scale forcing and moisture will bleed west into the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight. This will produce 2-4 inches of wet snow on the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks where temperatures are colder. Expect little or no accumulation overnight for lower elevations.
Meanwhile farther west, lake effect snow will develop east of Lake Erie tonight. A westerly flow this evening will veer to the northwest and direct most of the accumulating snow across the higher terrain of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. Moisture is mainly under 5k feet but it does reach the DGZ, with a spotty 1-3 inches possible mainly for the Chautauqua Ridge. Little to any snow accumulation expected at lower elevations overnight. Lows will reach the upper 20s across the higher terrain to the low 30s.
The deepening area of low pressure will be near Cape Cod Monday morning and will move to Nova Scotia by Monday evening. The upper level trough axis will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday. Cold air advection will continue Monday with 850mb temperatures reaching -10C by Monday afternoon. Ongoing widespread snow east of Lake Ontario will transition to lake enhanced/lake effect snow with an upslope component Monday. WNW/NW flow will direct most of the lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes.
The airmass is quite dry west of the synoptic system, so expect nothing more than a spotty 1-2 inches during the day. Off Lake Erie, this would mainly focus across the higher terrain of Chautauqua County. Off Lake Ontario, this will mainly focus across Oswego, northern Cayuga, and eastern Wayne counties.
Meanwhile east of Lake Ontario, persistent upslope flow and synoptic forcing from the passage of the mid level trough will support ongoing snow, especially across higher terrain. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches is likely on the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks, much less for surrounding lower elevations. Total accumulations from tonight through Monday will likely reach 4-7" for the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect.
West-northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Monday. The higher gusts will be along the southern shore of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon. The stronger winds will not occur in and area with accumulating snow, so little impact is expected.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Main item of note is increasing lake effect late Tuesday Night through Wednesday east and southeast of Lake Ontario.
Monday night shortwave trough aloft within mean troughing downstream of west coast ridging will be moving east across New England. Deep sfc low lifting toward the Canadian Maritimes will be followed by sfc ridge crossing the eastern Great Lakes. NW flow will shift SW by late night. Ongoing NW flow lake effect will reorganize and push northward. This occurs as warm air advection commences so soundings indicate DGZ less prevalent within lake convective layer. Thus, think the lake effect lifting northward will not be that intense into Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday, expect only a few lingering flurries near Watertown and to the north on Tuesday. Otherwise, the day will become windy with gusts to 40 mph Buffalo to Niagara Falls and to 30-35 mph elsewhere as the region will be ahead of approaching mid-level trough and cold front. Despite the breeze and increasing clouds, high temps will reach at least the mid 40s across the lake plains and the upper 30s to lower 40s over the higher terrain. Late in the day into Tuesday evening a scattering of rain/snow showers may break out ahead of cold front. Greatest risk of more persistent snow showers will be late Tuesday night east of Lake Ontario as colder air arrives with mid-level trough axis and there is more deeper moisture skirting by compared to drier airmass that is still present east of Lake Erie.
Lows Tuesday night a few degrees either side of 30F.
A short but favorable window for several inches of lake effect opens up on Wednesday, again mostly to the east/southeast of Lake Ontario.
Mid-level trough axis will be firmly overhead with deeper moisture into the DGZ. Cooling H85 temps down to around -12c lead to more than sufficient over-water instability (water temps 8c) with lake EQLs rising to over 10kft. WNW boundary layer flow runs the long axis of Lake Ontario and there are hints to upstream connections.
For now, increased QPF/snow to what would result in advisory level snowfall centered on Wednesday. Now, if some of the more bullish guidance such as the Canadian, end up more right than wrong, a warning event is not out of question. Not a long lasting event and not that widespread either, so there remains good deal of uncertainty, but something for those to the east/southeast of Lake Ontario to keep tabs on as we move into early this week. Much different story off Lake Erie with significantly lower inversions and being farther away from the coldest air/deeper moisture. Some light snow showers are possible especially across the Niagara Frontier owing to upstream connections that are hinted at, but not near as organized as what may occur off eastern Lake Ontario.
Otherwise, blustery and seasonally cool day behind the cold front with daytime readings in the low to mid 30s, not budging much from overnight lows.
Sfc ridge drifting across the Ohio Valley later Wednesday night will begin to set stage for more bonafide warm air advection into Thursday. Light lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario will slowly diminish due to lowering inversions and warming in the lake convective layer. Even so, winds remain NW through the night, so lowered pops but didn't get rid of them completely. That will not occur until later Thursday.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Axis of the mid-level trough will lie across the Eastern Seaboard Thursday morning, while a broad ridge builds east across the upper Mid-West and Great Lakes. The ridge will then push east across the region Friday. Overall this will support surface high pressure lie across the Ohio Valley Thursday through Friday and result in fair and dry weather for the end of the week.
A weak mid level trough will pass east across southern Canada and northern New York supporting a slight chance for a few rain and snow showers Friday night. Brief period of ridging Saturday will allow for the surface high to expand northward into New York, returning dry weather.
The next trough will slide east across the Great Lakes late Saturday and Sunday supporting a surface low to slide northeast from the central Great Lakes into southern Canada. This being said a warm front will slide across the region Sunday returning a chance for showers.
After a cooler day Thursday with temperatures near normal, a subtle warming trend will ensue Friday with slightly above normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) to last through the weekend.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A wave of low pressure moving north through New England will bring rain changing to wet snow tonight across Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions including KART. Snow will continue through Monday, especially across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario with areas of IFR.
Farther west, lake effect snow showers will bring occasional MVFR/IFR conditions across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier, including KJHW. Elsewhere, expect just a few scattered rain/snow showers tonight, then scattered snow showers Monday with areas of MVFR CIGS. It will become quite windy Monday, especially over and southeast of Lake Ontario where gusts will exceed 30 knots.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR/local IFR with lake effect snow showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
MARINE
Westerly winds will increase late tonight and especially Monday, producing higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Small Craft Advisory conditions will then last through most of the week.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043>045.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 922 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A wave of low pressure will bring rain changing to wet snow tonight across Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region, with snow continuing through Monday. Greater accumulations will be restricted to the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and Adirondacks. Farther west, lake effect snow showers will bring a spotty few inches of accumulation to the higher terrain east of Lake Erie late tonight through Monday. Elsewhere, expect just a few snow showers with minimal accumulation from Buffalo to Rochester.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
IR satellite imagery showing a maturing baroclinic leaf over the eastern US as a wave of low pressure begins to deepen and ripple along the frontal boundary now located just east of our area. Radar imagery showing a solid shield of precipitation moving northward across central and eastern NY, with the western edge located just east of the Genesee Valley. Precipitation type is still all rain at lower elevations as of 9PM, with wet snow now falling across higher terrain above about 1500ft. The most widespread synoptic precipitation will remain from the Finger Lakes into Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region tonight.
A wave of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will continue to deepen with help from the right entrance region of a 250mb 150kt jet tonight. Although the axis of heavier precipitation will be east of the region, the shield of moisture will continue to clip the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight. Cold air advection will continue with lowering freezing levels allowing the transition to snow by mid to late evening across high terrain, gradually decending to lower elevations through the night. As the low moves along I-95 overnight, strong forcing will be confined to an area of frontogenesis east of the forecast area, however large scale forcing and moisture will bleed west into the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight. This will produce 2-4 inches of wet snow on the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks where temperatures are colder. Expect little or no accumulation overnight for lower elevations.
Meanwhile farther west, lake effect snow will develop east of Lake Erie tonight. A westerly flow this evening will veer to the northwest and direct most of the accumulating snow across the higher terrain of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. Moisture is mainly under 5k feet but it does reach the DGZ, with a spotty 1-3 inches possible mainly for the Chautauqua Ridge. Little to any snow accumulation expected at lower elevations overnight. Lows will reach the upper 20s across the higher terrain to the low 30s.
The deepening area of low pressure will be near Cape Cod Monday morning and will move to Nova Scotia by Monday evening. The upper level trough axis will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday. Cold air advection will continue Monday with 850mb temperatures reaching -10C by Monday afternoon. Ongoing widespread snow east of Lake Ontario will transition to lake enhanced/lake effect snow with an upslope component Monday. WNW/NW flow will direct most of the lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes.
The airmass is quite dry west of the synoptic system, so expect nothing more than a spotty 1-2 inches during the day. Off Lake Erie, this would mainly focus across the higher terrain of Chautauqua County. Off Lake Ontario, this will mainly focus across Oswego, northern Cayuga, and eastern Wayne counties.
Meanwhile east of Lake Ontario, persistent upslope flow and synoptic forcing from the passage of the mid level trough will support ongoing snow, especially across higher terrain. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches is likely on the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks, much less for surrounding lower elevations. Total accumulations from tonight through Monday will likely reach 4-7" for the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect.
West-northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Monday. The higher gusts will be along the southern shore of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon. The stronger winds will not occur in and area with accumulating snow, so little impact is expected.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Main item of note is increasing lake effect late Tuesday Night through Wednesday east and southeast of Lake Ontario.
Monday night shortwave trough aloft within mean troughing downstream of west coast ridging will be moving east across New England. Deep sfc low lifting toward the Canadian Maritimes will be followed by sfc ridge crossing the eastern Great Lakes. NW flow will shift SW by late night. Ongoing NW flow lake effect will reorganize and push northward. This occurs as warm air advection commences so soundings indicate DGZ less prevalent within lake convective layer. Thus, think the lake effect lifting northward will not be that intense into Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday, expect only a few lingering flurries near Watertown and to the north on Tuesday. Otherwise, the day will become windy with gusts to 40 mph Buffalo to Niagara Falls and to 30-35 mph elsewhere as the region will be ahead of approaching mid-level trough and cold front. Despite the breeze and increasing clouds, high temps will reach at least the mid 40s across the lake plains and the upper 30s to lower 40s over the higher terrain. Late in the day into Tuesday evening a scattering of rain/snow showers may break out ahead of cold front. Greatest risk of more persistent snow showers will be late Tuesday night east of Lake Ontario as colder air arrives with mid-level trough axis and there is more deeper moisture skirting by compared to drier airmass that is still present east of Lake Erie.
Lows Tuesday night a few degrees either side of 30F.
A short but favorable window for several inches of lake effect opens up on Wednesday, again mostly to the east/southeast of Lake Ontario.
Mid-level trough axis will be firmly overhead with deeper moisture into the DGZ. Cooling H85 temps down to around -12c lead to more than sufficient over-water instability (water temps 8c) with lake EQLs rising to over 10kft. WNW boundary layer flow runs the long axis of Lake Ontario and there are hints to upstream connections.
For now, increased QPF/snow to what would result in advisory level snowfall centered on Wednesday. Now, if some of the more bullish guidance such as the Canadian, end up more right than wrong, a warning event is not out of question. Not a long lasting event and not that widespread either, so there remains good deal of uncertainty, but something for those to the east/southeast of Lake Ontario to keep tabs on as we move into early this week. Much different story off Lake Erie with significantly lower inversions and being farther away from the coldest air/deeper moisture. Some light snow showers are possible especially across the Niagara Frontier owing to upstream connections that are hinted at, but not near as organized as what may occur off eastern Lake Ontario.
Otherwise, blustery and seasonally cool day behind the cold front with daytime readings in the low to mid 30s, not budging much from overnight lows.
Sfc ridge drifting across the Ohio Valley later Wednesday night will begin to set stage for more bonafide warm air advection into Thursday. Light lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario will slowly diminish due to lowering inversions and warming in the lake convective layer. Even so, winds remain NW through the night, so lowered pops but didn't get rid of them completely. That will not occur until later Thursday.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Axis of the mid-level trough will lie across the Eastern Seaboard Thursday morning, while a broad ridge builds east across the upper Mid-West and Great Lakes. The ridge will then push east across the region Friday. Overall this will support surface high pressure lie across the Ohio Valley Thursday through Friday and result in fair and dry weather for the end of the week.
A weak mid level trough will pass east across southern Canada and northern New York supporting a slight chance for a few rain and snow showers Friday night. Brief period of ridging Saturday will allow for the surface high to expand northward into New York, returning dry weather.
The next trough will slide east across the Great Lakes late Saturday and Sunday supporting a surface low to slide northeast from the central Great Lakes into southern Canada. This being said a warm front will slide across the region Sunday returning a chance for showers.
After a cooler day Thursday with temperatures near normal, a subtle warming trend will ensue Friday with slightly above normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) to last through the weekend.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A wave of low pressure moving north through New England will bring rain changing to wet snow tonight across Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions including KART. Snow will continue through Monday, especially across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario with areas of IFR.
Farther west, lake effect snow showers will bring occasional MVFR/IFR conditions across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier, including KJHW. Elsewhere, expect just a few scattered rain/snow showers tonight, then scattered snow showers Monday with areas of MVFR CIGS. It will become quite windy Monday, especially over and southeast of Lake Ontario where gusts will exceed 30 knots.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR/local IFR with lake effect snow showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
MARINE
Westerly winds will increase late tonight and especially Monday, producing higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Small Craft Advisory conditions will then last through most of the week.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043>045.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY | 49 mi | 54 min | 44°F | |||||
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 53 mi | 54 min | W 12G | |||||
| OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY | 71 mi | 60 min | 29.80 |
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