Lowville, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lowville, NY

June 15, 2024 2:22 PM EDT (18:22 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM
Moonrise 1:27 PM   Moonset 12:41 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1030 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Overnight - North winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowville, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 151731 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes tonight before moving off the New England coast Sunday, bringing a continuation of dry weather to the region. It will be cool tonight, then a warming trend begins Sunday. Heat and humidity will build Monday, and last through much of next week with high temperatures in the 90s and dangerous heat index values peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Visible satellite imagery showing diurnal cumulus fields early this afternoon across higher terrain and along lake breeze boundaries.
These cumulus will tend to dissipate as the afternoon progresses and the shallow layer of supporting low level moisture is depleted. High temperatures will be a little below average for mid June, with upper 60s to lower 70s in most locales.

Tonight, surface high pressure will settle across the eastern Great Lakes. Light winds, clear skies, and a cool/dry airmass will allow for good radiational cooling. Lows will drop back into the 40s in inland locations, with lower 50s along the immediate lakeshores.
Some of the coolest locations in the North Country may even drop into the upper 30s.

Sunday, surface high pressure will drift east across New England, then off the east coast by evening. Increasing warm advection in the wake of the departing high will bring some periods of high cirrus, but these should remain thin enough to still yield a mostly sunny day. Temperatures will begin to move warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s for Western NY, and 70s for the North Country.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Dangerous Heat Wave Will Begin to Impact the Region

Broad mid-level ridging centered across the Great Lakes Sunday will continue its eastward progression into the eastern Great Lakes and eventually center over the Northeast by Tuesday. Meanwhile within the ridging, a shortwave trough will ride the top of the ridge Sunday into Monday well to the north of the region. While this shortwave trough indicates some active weather Sunday night, its placement well to the north should keep most of the activity to the north of the area though a few showers may be possible across the North Country. Despite the ridge and surface high in place across the Northeast, there is a slight chance for the potential for diurnally driven convection.

Outside of this, deep southerly flow will advect in warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico initiating the heat wave for the middle portion of the week. Of the first two days of the new work week, Monday will be cooler. Though this being said, it will still be quite sultry with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region and low to mid 90s across the climatologically warmer spots of the Genesee Valley. Given not much respite in temperatures Monday night (lows ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s), temperatures Tuesday will soar into the 90s, with the typically hot spots of the Genesee Valley approaching the 100 degree mark.

The hot high temperatures combined with the humidity will create heat index values Monday to range in the upper 80s to mid 90s, whereas Tuesday will see heat index values between 95 and 105 degrees. With such hot conditions, please remember to drink plenty of fluids, stay in cooler areas (air conditioned or shaded), and wear light loose clothing to help remain cool and avoid heat illness!

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Dangerous Heat Wave To Impact The Region Next Week

A very strong 500mb ridge will anchor itself across much of the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through much of the week, which will dominate the sensible weather across the eastern Great Lakes.
NAEFS ensemble guidance continues to indicate this ridge will be of anomalous strength with 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures in the 99th percentile, if not exceeding the maximum climatological values for the Northeast through Thursday. Deep anticyclonic flow around the resultant Bermuda High will cause hot, humid air to surge across the eastern CONUS. Given the strong signal from nearly all available long range guidance packages, confidence is high in a prolonged stretch of oppressive summer heat and humidity lasting through much of the week.

Not much change to previous forecast packages with daytime highs solidly in 90s Wednesday through Thursday. Highest temps will be in the interior valleys, while cooler temps will be found immediately along the lakeshores and immediately northeast of both lakes (including Downtown Buffalo) as a persistent southwest flow advects cooler marine air off the lakes. Have leaned more towards the ECMWF, Canadian and ICON models for temperatures as the GEFS/GFS seems to have too much convection/clouds given the strength of the 500 hPa ridge.

Wednesday still seems like the peak day of excessive heat and humidity with low 100s possible in interior valleys. This heat comes as dewpoints climb into the low 70s, which will cause overall heat indicies in the afternoon to climb into the mid 90s to lower 100s.

An upper level trough over south-central Canada will move east through the end of the week. The approaching trough will begin to suppress the strong ridge over the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday night. Based on the NAEFS, 850mb temperatures will begin to fall into the upper teens Thursday through Friday, HOWEVER this may only result in a few degrees difference from Tuesday and Wednesday, continuing the heat wave across the forecast area. For context, daytime highs average the upper 70s for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown during the days of June 18-21. Record high temperatures and record warm minimum temperatures are possible this period, and the climate section below lists such records for Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown.

Little relief is expected overnight with overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s within a muggy airmass.

Otherwise...The primary forecast uncertainty through much of next week continues to be the potential for convection. Daytime surface based instability will greatly be present each afternoon with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s although the strong ridge should preclude much of the diurnal convective potential with strong capping expected to be in place for Wednesday.
A shortwave driving through this ridge Thursday could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm Thursday or slightly better, on Friday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR will prevail through Sunday as high pressure drifts from the eastern Great Lakes into New England. Diurnal cumulus this afternoon, with bases in the 4-5k foot range, will dissipate by late afternoon or early evening. A few periods of high/thin cirrus will then cross the region tonight through Sunday. Winds will be relatively light through the period.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.
Tuesday through Thursday...VFR, but a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

MARINE
Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the rest of the weekend. North winds in the 10-12 knot range will bring some light chop on Lake Ontario this afternoon. East winds will increase Sunday, especially on the central and western portions of Lake Ontario where it will become quite choppy.

Winds will then generally be light Monday through much of next week as high pressure anchors over the Ohio Valley and New England.

CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region, starting Monday June 17th. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:

Buffalo

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
94/1994............73/2006
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012


Rochester

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
94/1994............70/1994
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923


Watertown

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
89/1994............68/1949
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi65 min 30.15
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 53 mi65 minNNW 7G8.9 30.11
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 71 mi65 min 30.13


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KGTB28 sm27 minNNE 1010 smMostly Cloudy66°F48°F52%30.10
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Wind History graph: GTB
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Montague, NY,




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