Ellisburg, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ellisburg, NY

December 10, 2023 2:22 PM EST (19:22 UTC)
Sunrise 7:26AM   Sunset 4:31PM   Moonrise  4:58AM   Moonset 2:37PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Lake Ontario Open Waters From Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River- 937 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers late this evening, then rain after midnight. Showers likely late. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Rain showers likely with snow in the morning, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellisburg, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 142 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A wave of low pressure will bring rain and snow showers to the region this evening. A transition to snow is expected as colder air deepens across the region tonight. Accumulating snow is likely across higher terrain, and especially the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondack mountains. Lighter snow accumulations across lower elevations through Monday morning with all areas dropping to or below the freezing mark.

Regional radar shows a wealth of precipitation from the Mid-Atlantic region through the Northeast this afternoon. Rain showers encompass the Finger Lakes region to the eastern Lake Ontario region with drier weather across western NY.

An upper level trough extends from the Great Lakes region to the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. A strong southerly flow from the low levels to the upper levels will aid in moisture transport and upper level divergence as the trough moves east into Monday. A cold front is east of the forecast area with anafrontal rain showers moving south to north across the western Finger Lakes to the North Country this afternoon. Drier air and subsidence has moved into western NY with dry weather across most of the area. Temperatures are slowly falling today as colder air filters into the region. Rain showers may start to mix with snow across the higher terrain by nightfall.

A wave of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will continue to deepen with help from the right entrance region of a 250mb 150kt jet tonight. Although the axis of heavier precipitation will be east of the region, the shield of moisture will move west into western and north central NY tonight. Cold air advection will continue and rain showers will transition to snow showers by Monday morning, first across the higher terrain. As the low moves along I-95 overnight, strong forcing will be confined to an area of frontogenesis east of the forecast area, however large scale forcing and moisture will bleed west into the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight. This will produce 2-4 inches of wet snow on the Tug Hill and western adirondacks where temperatures are colder.
Accumulating snow is possible at lower elevations however it will most likely be confined to Lewis county. Lake effect snow will develop east of Lake Erie tonight. A westerly flow this evening will veer to the northwest and direct most of the accumulating snow across the higher terrain of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. Moisture is mainly under 5k feet but it does reach the DGZ and 1-3 inches are possible. Little to any snow accumulation expected at lower elevations overnight. Lows will reach the upper 20s across the higher terrain to the low 30s.

The deepening area of low pressure will be near Cape Cod Monday morning and will move to Nova Scotia by Monday evening. The upper level trough axis will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday. Cold air advection will continue Monday with 850mb temperatures reaching -10C by Monday afternoon. Ongoing widespread snow east of Lake Ontario will transition to lake enhanced/lake effect snow with an upslope component Monday. The low level flow will back Monday with lake effect snow bands moving north east of both Lakes. Upstream moisture connections could help with band organization and lower elevations may have a shot at 1-2 inches of snow, mainly the southern shore of Lake Ontario into southern Oswego and southern Erie into Wyoming counties. Due to the time of day and surface temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, this would cause minimal impacts. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches is likely on the Tug Hill with 1 to 3 inches across lower elevations east of Lake Ontario. Additional snow accumulation of 1-3 inches across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Tug Hill region where 4 to 8 inches are possible.

West-northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Monday. The higher gusts will be along the southern shore of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon.

Main item of note is increasing lake effect late Tuesday Night through Wednesday east and southeast of Lake Ontario.

Monday night shortwave trough aloft within mean troughing downstream of west coast ridging will be moving east across New England. Deep sfc low lifting toward the Canadian Maritimes will be followed by sfc ridge crossing the eastern Great Lakes. NW flow will shift SW by late night. Ongoing NW flow lake effect will reorganize and push northward. This occurs as warm air advection commences so soundings indicate DGZ less prevalent within lake convective layer. Thus, think the lake effect lifting northward will not be that intense into Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, expect only a few lingering flurries near Watertown and to the north on Tuesday. Otherwise, the day will become windy with gusts to 40 mph Buffalo to Niagara Falls and to 30-35 mph elsewhere as the region will be ahead of approaching mid-level trough and cold front. Despite the breeze and increasing clouds, high temps will reach at least the mid 40s across the lake plains and the upper 30s to lower 40s over the higher terrain. Late in the day into Tuesday evening a scattering of rain/snow showers may break out ahead of cold front. Greatest risk of more persistent snow showers will be late Tuesday night east of Lake Ontario as colder air arrives with mid-level trough axis and there is more deeper moisture skirting by compared to drier airmass that is still present east of Lake Erie.
Lows Tuesday night a few degrees either side of 30F.

A short but favorable window for several inches of lake effect opens up on Wednesday, again mostly to the east/southeast of Lake Ontario.
Mid-level trough axis will be firmly overhead with deeper moisture into the DGZ. Cooling H85 temps down to around -12c lead to more than sufficient over-water instability (water temps 8c) with lake EQLs rising to over 10kft. WNW boundary layer flow runs the long axis of Lake Ontario and there are hints to upstream connections.
For now, increased QPF/snow to what would result in advisory level snowfall centered on Wednesday. Now, if some of the more bullish guidance such as the Canadian, end up more right than wrong, a warning event is not out of question. Not a long lasting event and not that widespread either, so there remains good deal of uncertainty, but something for those to the east/southeast of Lake Ontario to keep tabs on as we move into early this week. Much different story off Lake Erie with significantly lower inversions and being farther away from the coldest air/deeper moisture. Some light snow showers are possible especially across the Niagara Frontier owing to upstream connections that are hinted at, but not near as organized as what may occur off eastern Lake Ontario.
Otherwise, blustery and seasonally cool day behind the cold front with daytime readings in the low to mid 30s, not budging much from overnight lows.

Sfc ridge drifting across the Ohio Valley later Wednesday night will begin to set stage for more bonafide warm air advection into Thursday. Light lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario will slowly diminish due to lowering inversions and warming in the lake convective layer. Even so, winds remain NW through the night, so lowered pops but didn't get rid of them completely. That will not occur until later Thursday.

Axis of the mid-level trough will lie across the Eastern Seaboard Thursday morning, while a broad ridge builds east across the upper Mid-West and Great Lakes. The ridge will then push east across the region Friday. Overall this will support surface high pressure lie across the Ohio Valley Thursday through Friday and result in fair and dry weather for the end of the week.

A weak mid level trough will pass east across southern Canada and northern New York supporting a slight chance for a few rain and snow showers Friday night. Brief period of ridging Saturday will allow for the surface high to expand northward into New York, returning dry weather.

The next trough will slide east across the Great Lakes late Saturday and Sunday supporting a surface low to slide northeast from the central Great Lakes into southern Canada. This being said a warm front will slide across the region Sunday returning a chance for showers.

After a cooler day Thursday with temperatures near normal, a subtle warming trend will ensue Friday with slightly above normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) to last through the weekend.

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are across western and north central NY this afternoon. Rain showers will continue east of Lake Ontario through nightfall. A wave of low pressure and a lake response will bring additional rain and snow showers tonight and snow showers Monday. Flight conditions will lower to MVFR tonight with low-end MVFR/high-end IFR conditions across the western Southern Tier including KJHW and east of Lake Ontario including KART. Due to marginal temperatures, visibility may not be reduced as much in wet snow tonight and Monday.

West-northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Monday. The higher gusts will be along the southern shore of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon.


Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers. IFR and likely snow east and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Westerly winds will diminish this evening with a brief lull in winds and lower waves. A deepening cold airmass behind an upper level trough will bring back gusty winds that could continue SCA on both lakes deep into this week.

NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi64 min W 8.9G11 29.80

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Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY 24 sm28 minWNW 0510 smOvercast Lt Rain 45°F39°F81%29.83

Wind History from FZY
(wind in knots)

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Montague, NY,

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