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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 823 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023

Today..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 11 seconds. Isolated showers through the day.
Tonight..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds and nw 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Tue..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 3 seconds in the morning...becoming less than 2 ft. SWell W 3 ft at 9 seconds and nw 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..SE wind 10 kt...veering to S after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and nw 1 to 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves less than 2 ft...becoming W 2 ft at 3 seconds in the afternoon. SWell W 2 ft at 8 seconds and nw 1 to 2 ft at 7 seconds. Chance of rain.
Wed night..S wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to E after midnight. Wind waves W 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds... Building to 9 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. SWell less than 2 ft. Rain likely.
Thu..E wind 10 kt...veering to se. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds in the morning...becoming less than 2 ft. SWell W 9 to 10 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..E wind 10 kt. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 7 to 8 ft at 13 seconds.

PZZ300 823 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Winds will become northerly across the waters this morning as a weak thermal trough develops. West swell will gradually lower today and tonight. Wind seas may result in some locally steep seas south of port orford late this afternoon into tonight. Lighter winds and seas are expected Tuesday. Then a weak cold front will approach on Wednesday, moving onshore Wednesday night. Winds will change to south on Wednesday. High and steep seas may build into the waters behind the front late Wednesday night and Thursday.

FXUS66 KMFR 111736 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 936 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION
Plenty of low level moisture from the recent rain from Yesterday has resulted in low clouds and patchy areas of fog for many interior westside locations this morning. Even the eastside around Klamath Falls have low clouds. Radar is showing light returns, but it's not seeing everything with off/on light rain at the coast and coastal mountains that's not being picked up. Also light showers are moving from northwest to southeast east of the Cascades. Precipitation will gradually diminish later this morning into this afternoon, but not going away completely until later this evening once the weak upper trough moves south of the area.

After today, the weather will be fairly quiet with dry conditions expected for the rest of the week. A weakening front could bring a few showers in Coos and northwest Douglas County later in the week, but that's it. Low clouds and patchy to areas of fog will be common for many of the interior westside valleys the next few night/mornings. -Petrucelli



AVIATION
11/18Z TAFs...Plenty of low level moisture has resulted in low ceilings for most of the terminals. The exception is Medford where VFR ceilings are being observed. However partial mountain obscuration is likely around the Medford terminal through at least 20z. The morning sounding shows the freezing level at 8400 feet.

Along the coast and just offshore. IFR conditions will continue with ceilings gradually improving late this afternoon, although ceilings could improve an hour or two sooner than whats indicated in the North Bend TAF. Ceilings and visibility are likely to lower again later this evening and lasting until the end of the TAF period as the atmosphere becomes stable along with existing low level moisture.

Inland, conditions are expected to improve to VFR with lingering areas of MVFR into the afternoon, north of the Umpqua Divide, including Roseburg. It's possible Roseburg could briefly break out with VFR ceilings towards 23z, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAF.

More widespread valley LIFR/IFR with a stabilizing air mass is likely tonight at Roseburg and Medford. For now left the lower conditions out of Klamath Falls, but this will need to be looked at again at the next TAF issuance. -Petrucelli

MARINE
Updated 800 AM Monday December 11, 2023...Winds will become northerly across the waters this morning as a weak thermal trough develops. West swell will gradually lower today and tonight.
Wind seas may result in some locally steep seas south of Port Orford late this afternoon into tonight. Lighter winds and seas are expected Tuesday. Then a weak cold front will approach on Wednesday, moving onshore Wednesday night. Winds will change to south on Wednesday. High and steep seas may build into the waters behind the front late Wednesday night and Thursday. Seas are likely to diminish Friday, then trend higher next weekend. -CC



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023/

DISCUSSION...Radar is showing isolated to scattered light showers still moving through the area at this time. One shortwave disturbance is exiting to the southeast early this morning, while another upper trough will swing through the area this afternoon and evening. While this will keep some showers going, we should see an overall decrease in shower coverage through the day and especially tonight as the trough settles into the Great Basin.
Upper ridging offshore will move in over the area Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in a period of dry weather, though there is the expectation of nighttime/morning low clouds/fog, especially in the valleys west of the Cascades. Overall, temperatures should be fairly typical for early December, if not averaging a little above normal.

The next front will approach the coast and try to move onshore Wednesday night, but upper support for the front will be lacking and focused off to our north. As such, the front will fall apart before it can move very far inland. A period of rain is still likely (60-80% chance) over the coastal waters and from about Cape Blanco northward along the coast during this time frame, but PoPs drop off significantly farther inland, down to 20% around Roseburg. Areas east of there probably won't see any rain from it at all.

By Thursday, the flow aloft will become southerly and this will force the front to move back to the north as a warm front offshore. This will also allow the upper ridge to rebuild resulting in dry weather through Saturday. Overall, expect above normal daytime temperatures with near normal nighttime lows.
But, low clouds and fog will probably impact this a bit in the west side valleys.

While this is occurring, a closed low will set up well offshore of the California coast. Models show this system eventually opening up and the upper ridge shifting to the Intermountain West.
This will allow some energy to eject to the northeast and possibly into our area over the weekend. We've largely maintained the NBM forecast here due to uncertainty with exactly when this will occur. PoPs do increase across SW sections Saturday night, and are highest along the coast and western Siskiyou County on Sunday (30-50% chance). It appears the best chance at precipitation will come Sunday night into early next week as the upper level energy shifts through the region. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

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Reedsport
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Mon -- 12:31 AM PST     5.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:23 AM PST     2.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:18 AM PST     7.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:25 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:41 PM PST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Florence
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Mon -- 12:04 AM PST     5.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:57 AM PST     2.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:51 AM PST     7.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:24 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:38 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:15 PM PST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon, Tide feet

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