Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 181448 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 848 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020

UPDATE.

The strong pressure gradient will continue into the afternoon hours before starting to weaken as the strong Arctic high builds into the region. Expect wind gusts to range from 20 to 25 mph at times through the afternoon before tapering off this evening. Satellite imagery this morning showing the back edge of the clouds is approaching Madison as of 845am. Even with the CAA today, the clearing skies and sun coming could stabilize temps for a time this afternoon before then dropping quickly this evening. Made some minor adjustments to temps and winds. The rest of the forecast is on track.

MARINE.

The gusty northwesterly winds continue across the lake this morning. A few gusts could approach gale force closer to the open waters of Lake Michigan this morning. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken with time today allowing for gusts to diminish. Small Craft Conditions hold until this afternoon/evening. Made some minor adjustments to gusts but the rest of the forecast is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 539 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020)

UPDATE .

All the wintry precip has exited our area this morning as the surface low continues to lift to the northeast. Strong pressure gradient that has developed on the backside of this system has resulted in brisk northwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts around 25 mph. These brisk conditions will continue into the afternoon before diminishing in the evening. Cold air will filter in today as well and temps will gradually fall through the day. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

With the surface low lifting further to the northeast, brisk northwesterly winds have developed and drier air is contributing to rising ceilings this morning. Can expect this trend to continue as MVFR ceiling are expected to scatter out by mid to late morning. Then VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period. Winds will gradually weaken this evening as a Arctic high progresses southeastward across the Upper Midwest.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 315 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2020)

SHORT TERM .

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Forecast Confidence . High.

A few light snow showers remain across our central WI counties early this morning, but will exit the area as the surface low continues to push northeast and drier air filters behind it. However, a tight pressure gradient on the back side of the low will persist resulting in breezy conditions this morning and continuing into the afternoon.

Otherwise, clouds will gradually diminish through the day as subsidence from an approaching Arctic high builds into the Upper Midwest. CAA on the back side of the exiting system will cause temps across southern WI to fall through the day. Clearing skies combined with snowpack across most of the CWA, and Arctic air advecting into the region, overnight temps are progged to dip into the single digits with a few locations in central WI nearing zero degrees.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - Forecast Confidence . Medium to High.

A dry and colder period is expected as a large area of Canadian high pressure continues to build into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A low level baroclinic zone will become draped across southern WI on Wednesday and then push south of the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Possible some arctic stratus could accompany the baroclinic zone on Wednesday but more likely some mid-high level clouds from upstream isentropic lift light precipitation across Iowa will affect southern WI. These clouds should exit the area Wednesday night, with plenty of sunshine but cold northwest flow expected on Thursday. 925H temperatures drop to -10 to -15C on Wednesday and remain around -15C on Thursday. Northwest breezes of 5 to 15 mph will result in wind chills falling to 5 to 15 below zero Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with another round of below zero wind chills likely Thursday night into Friday morning.

LONG TERM .

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - Forecast Confidence . Medium to High.

The cold will remain entrenched across southern WI Thursday night. Lighter winds due to the nearby passing ridge axis may result in this being the coldest night of the week but low level temps begin to slowly modify due to a shift to more westerly winds in the low levels. The upstream upper level high pressure ridge finally weakens and flattens out early in the period. This will result in noticeably warmer temps returning on Friday and continuing through the weekend. A developing split flow across the CONUS over the weekend will result in the more active southern stream and developing low pressure in the southern/central Plains, however this system is looking more likely to remain south of the area. All extended guidance slowing northward progression of low and latest ECMWF keeping precipitation with this system completely to the south of southern WI. Hence will be removing precipitation mention through Sunday but will hang on to small chances Sunday night and Monday as GFS does eventually pivot precipitation into the area during this period.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATE) .

The last of the precip has moved out for the south WI terminals early this morning. However, lower ceilings will remain for the next few hours before gradually lifting and clearing as drier air pushes into the region after 12z. Breezy northwesterly have also developed this morning and will continue into the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will develop later this morning and prevail through tonight.

MARINE .

A deepening surface low is working its way across the center of the Lake early this morning. Expect brisk northwesterly winds to develop across the Lake later this morning as the pressure gradient tightens with the departing surface low and as a strong arctic high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through the afternoon for our nearshore waters. Brisk winds will diminish this evening as the surface high approaches the region. However, expect moderate west to northwest winds across the Lake through the end of the week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LMZ643>646.



Update . Stumpf Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wagner Wednesday THROUGH Monday . mbK

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	27 mi	45 min	W 20 G 24	31°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	42 mi	65 min	WNW 12 G 20	31°F			1017.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	43 mi	65 min	WNW 24 G 31	33°F			1013.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	43 mi	63 min	WNW 14 G 24	33°F				27°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI	35 mi	4.9 hrs	WNW 14 G 24	10.00 mi	Overcast	33°F	28°F	85%	1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (10,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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