Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:25PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 9:44 AM CST (15:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:30AMMoonset 1:38PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ669 Expires:202002182300;;727119 Fzus63 Kmkx 181433 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 833 Am Cst Tue Feb 18 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A deepening surface low around 29.6 inches is moving into southeastern ontario this morning. Expect brisk northwesterly winds to continue across the entire lake as the pressure gradient tightens between the departing low and as a strong arctic high pressure builds into the upper midwest today. Brisk winds will diminish by tonight into Wednesday as the surface high around 30.8 inches moves into the region. However, still can expect moderate west to northwest winds to continue across the lake through the end of the week. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-182300- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 833 am cst Tue feb 18 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Light freezing spray. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Light freezing spray. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Light freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Light freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Light freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt. Light freezing spray. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
LMZ669


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI
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location: 43.71, -87.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 181448 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 848 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020

UPDATE.

The strong pressure gradient will continue into the afternoon hours before starting to weaken as the strong Arctic high builds into the region. Expect wind gusts to range from 20 to 25 mph at times through the afternoon before tapering off this evening. Satellite imagery this morning showing the back edge of the clouds is approaching Madison as of 845am. Even with the CAA today, the clearing skies and sun coming could stabilize temps for a time this afternoon before then dropping quickly this evening. Made some minor adjustments to temps and winds. The rest of the forecast is on track.

MARINE.

The gusty northwesterly winds continue across the lake this morning. A few gusts could approach gale force closer to the open waters of Lake Michigan this morning. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken with time today allowing for gusts to diminish. Small Craft Conditions hold until this afternoon/evening. Made some minor adjustments to gusts but the rest of the forecast is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 539 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020)

UPDATE .

All the wintry precip has exited our area this morning as the surface low continues to lift to the northeast. Strong pressure gradient that has developed on the backside of this system has resulted in brisk northwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts around 25 mph. These brisk conditions will continue into the afternoon before diminishing in the evening. Cold air will filter in today as well and temps will gradually fall through the day. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

With the surface low lifting further to the northeast, brisk northwesterly winds have developed and drier air is contributing to rising ceilings this morning. Can expect this trend to continue as MVFR ceiling are expected to scatter out by mid to late morning. Then VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period. Winds will gradually weaken this evening as a Arctic high progresses southeastward across the Upper Midwest.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 315 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2020)

SHORT TERM .

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Forecast Confidence . High.

A few light snow showers remain across our central WI counties early this morning, but will exit the area as the surface low continues to push northeast and drier air filters behind it. However, a tight pressure gradient on the back side of the low will persist resulting in breezy conditions this morning and continuing into the afternoon.

Otherwise, clouds will gradually diminish through the day as subsidence from an approaching Arctic high builds into the Upper Midwest. CAA on the back side of the exiting system will cause temps across southern WI to fall through the day. Clearing skies combined with snowpack across most of the CWA, and Arctic air advecting into the region, overnight temps are progged to dip into the single digits with a few locations in central WI nearing zero degrees.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - Forecast Confidence . Medium to High.

A dry and colder period is expected as a large area of Canadian high pressure continues to build into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A low level baroclinic zone will become draped across southern WI on Wednesday and then push south of the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Possible some arctic stratus could accompany the baroclinic zone on Wednesday but more likely some mid-high level clouds from upstream isentropic lift light precipitation across Iowa will affect southern WI. These clouds should exit the area Wednesday night, with plenty of sunshine but cold northwest flow expected on Thursday. 925H temperatures drop to -10 to -15C on Wednesday and remain around -15C on Thursday. Northwest breezes of 5 to 15 mph will result in wind chills falling to 5 to 15 below zero Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with another round of below zero wind chills likely Thursday night into Friday morning.

LONG TERM .

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - Forecast Confidence . Medium to High.

The cold will remain entrenched across southern WI Thursday night. Lighter winds due to the nearby passing ridge axis may result in this being the coldest night of the week but low level temps begin to slowly modify due to a shift to more westerly winds in the low levels. The upstream upper level high pressure ridge finally weakens and flattens out early in the period. This will result in noticeably warmer temps returning on Friday and continuing through the weekend. A developing split flow across the CONUS over the weekend will result in the more active southern stream and developing low pressure in the southern/central Plains, however this system is looking more likely to remain south of the area. All extended guidance slowing northward progression of low and latest ECMWF keeping precipitation with this system completely to the south of southern WI. Hence will be removing precipitation mention through Sunday but will hang on to small chances Sunday night and Monday as GFS does eventually pivot precipitation into the area during this period.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATE) .

The last of the precip has moved out for the south WI terminals early this morning. However, lower ceilings will remain for the next few hours before gradually lifting and clearing as drier air pushes into the region after 12z. Breezy northwesterly have also developed this morning and will continue into the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will develop later this morning and prevail through tonight.

MARINE .

A deepening surface low is working its way across the center of the Lake early this morning. Expect brisk northwesterly winds to develop across the Lake later this morning as the pressure gradient tightens with the departing surface low and as a strong arctic high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through the afternoon for our nearshore waters. Brisk winds will diminish this evening as the surface high approaches the region. However, expect moderate west to northwest winds across the Lake through the end of the week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LMZ643>646.



Update . Stumpf Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wagner Wednesday THROUGH Monday . mbK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi45 min W 20 G 24 31°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi65 min WNW 12 G 20 31°F 1017.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi65 min WNW 24 G 31 33°F 1013.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 43 mi63 min WNW 14 G 24 33°F 27°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI35 mi4.9 hrsWNW 14 G 2410.00 miOvercast33°F28°F85%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW4W4NW6NW8NW7NW7W7W7NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E3E3
2 days ago------S16S15SW17SW15
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SW14SW12SW9SW9W12W10W12W14W13W10W10W9NW8NW7W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.