Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:42PM Friday January 17, 2020 7:06 AM CST (13:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:52AMMoonset 12:32PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ669 Expires:202001171630;;071883 Fzus63 Kmkx 170846 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 246 Am Cst Fri Jan 17 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.9 inches over lower michigan will continue to move off to the east this morning while low pressure of 29.7 inches forms in the western plains today. This low will track northeast, eventually crossing lake michigan on Saturday. Southeast gales are expected to develop tonight and linger into Saturday morning for most of lake michigan. The low will then continue to deepen as it moves to new england by Sunday morning. A strong arctic front will move across the lake Saturday afternoon and evening with west to northwesterly gales expected. Brisk west to northwest winds will continue for Sunday. && lmz080-366-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876- 878-171630- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 246 am cst Fri jan 17 2020 sturgeon bay wi to point betsie mi south...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through late Saturday night...
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt late, then becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt this morning increasing to 15 to 25 kt early this afternoon. Slight chance of snow. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight..Southeast gales to 35 kt increasing to gales to 40 kt. Snow and freezing rain in the evening, then snow, rain with a chance of freezing rain overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Saturday..South gales to 35 kt veering to west gales to 40 kt. Rain, snow with a chance of freezing rain in the morning, then chance of snow and rain in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft building to 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft.
Saturday night..West gales to 40 kt. Freezing spray. Chance of snow overnight. Waves 12 to 16 ft occasionally to 21 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft subsiding to 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ669


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI
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location: 43.71, -87.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 171142 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 542 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020

UPDATE. No changes at this time.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS). Lake effect low clouds beginning to affect some lakeshore and inland areas. As low level winds become more east to southeast and increase the next several hours, expect the stratus to become more widespread and expand over the east. Short term guidance hinting that low clouds will be transient and move off to the north later this morning. However with increasing convergence, potentially the stratus could just expand and persist over eastern areas. However, for now wl be more optimistic and keep the low clouds around only for a time in the east this morning. Widespread snow should develop late this afternoon and evening, possibly changing to a period of light freezing rain and drizzle late tonight into early Saturday. Blustery southeast winds will also develop later today, with gusts of 35 knots tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 506 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today Through Saturday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High.

No significant changes to earlier thinking, but did add a little more icing potential. Potent upstream short wave over southern Nevada will continue on a east to northeast track over the next 36 hours. An increasing low level jet ahead of this wave will rapidly transport warm and moist air northward today. Still expecting column precipitable water to increase rapidly this aftn and evening to 0.50" to 0.75", which is unusually high for this time of year, about 200% of normal. The peak of this moisture and warm air advection is late this afternoon through about 08Z or so, as the short wave amplifies and takes on a slightly negative tilt across the Upper Midwest.

Short term guidance in good agreement on surface low pressure developing in western KS later today and taking a northeast track across IA tonight, passing through southern WI/northern IL Saturday morning. The nose of the low level jet grazes southern WI, but remains mostly to the south and east of the state later tonight into Saturday. So, the highest QPF remains to the south of the area.

There does remain some differences in the short term guidance regarding the amount of low level warm air moving into southern WI later tonight, as well as the amount of drying aloft, above about 8000 feet. The GFS remains the warmest in the low levels later tonight, but also lacks any significant drying aloft. Meanwhile, the NAM and ECWMF are in better agreement with the drying aloft, which reduces the ice falling into the lower cloud layer. This in turn would result in a better chance for a period of light freezing rain, while the GFS favors more of snow and sleet.

At this juncture, prefer the higher resolution of the NAM and ECMWF guidance so wl bump up the mention of a period of light freezing rain and drizzle later tonight into early Saturday. Never the less, all areas will see a period of accumulating snow late this afternoon and evening, with the wintry mix setting in after midnight.

The wintry mix and potential sleet cuts back a little on snowfall amounts. With the best chance for the mix in the southwest, snowfall amounts will range from 3 to 4 inches in this area to 5 to 8 inches in the northeast. Lake enhancement and terrain should result in higher snowfall totals in the Sheboygan, West Bend and Port Washington areas, and with potential gusts to 35 mph, was very close to upgrading this area to a Winter Storm Warning. But, with the lingering uncertainty regarding the potential mix and ultimate snowfall totals, held off on upgrading at this point. So, no changes to Winter Weather Advisory timing or length at this time.

Blustery west winds will carry the colder air back into the region Saturday afternoon. The colder air will dry out the overnight snowfall and should result in areas of blowing and drifting snow into Saturday evening. Temperatures will be steady or falling Saturday afternoon.

Saturday Night Through Monday . Forecast Confidence Is High.

Cold air advection continues Saturday night across the region, with brisk west northwest winds. This will bring cold temperatures into the area, with lows around zero to 5 above zero over most of the area. These lows may be a little lower, given the expected 925 mb temperatures. There will be some clouds lingering Saturday night into Sunday, with 500 mb vorticity maxima lingering nearby, so this may hold up lows a bit.

Wind chills will be in the 15 below to 20 below zero range later Saturday night into Sunday morning, close to Wind Chill Advisory levels. Lower minimum temperatures would lower these wind chills, so this potential will need to be watched.

Northwest flow at 500 mb lingers into Sunday night and Monday, with a 500 mb shortwave trough slowly moving southeast through the region. This may keep some clouds over the region. Cold temperatures should linger during this time, with wind chills of 5 below to 10 below zero Sunday night into Monday morning.

LONG TERM .

Monday Night Through Thursday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models generally show high pressure moving southeast from the northern Plains into the middle Mississippi River Valley Monday night into Tuesday. This should keep the area dry. Cold temperatures should remain during this time, with wind chills in the 5 below to 13 below zero range likely Monday night into Tuesday morning.

South to southwest winds then try to develop with some steady warm air advection For Tuesday night into Wednesday night/Thursday. More moisture may be pulled into the region from the south, ahead of low pressure in the southern or central Plains. More uncertainty exists this far out with features and timing, so will leave blended model PoPs and temperatures for now. Wednesday night into Thursday would be the next chance for precipitation across the area.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES) .

Low level winds will be shifting to the east to southeast as high pressure ridge over Lake Michigan continues to move off to the east. This winds should pull the large area of low lake clouds currently over the southern open waters of Lake Michigan west and into eastern areas early this morning, with MVFR ceilings. Possible a few flurries may get shaken out of the low clouds.

Otherwise, widespread mid-high level clouds will continue to thicken across southern WI this morning ahead of approaching low pressure. Widespread snow and low ceilings expected tonight with a chance for some light freezing rain or drizzle later tonight into early Saturday. Blustery southeast winds will develop later this afternoon and evening, switching to the west on Saturday.

MARINE .

Gusty southeast winds are expected to develop this evening and linger overnight, before gradually veering west Saturday morning. The winds may decrease in magnitude for a time Saturday morning. West to northwest winds will become gusty again Saturday afternoon and night across the region.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from middle afternoon into middle evening, before a Gale Warning is in effect through Saturday night, for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan.

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southern two thirds of the open waters of Lake Michigan from later this evening through Saturday night. A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern one third of the open waters from later this evening through middle morning Saturday, with a Gale Watch for Saturday night.

Heavy freezing spray is possible later Saturday night into Sunday morning, with freezing spray at times into early next week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Saturday for WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Saturday for WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ052-060.

LM . Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for LMZ080-366-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874- 876-878.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for LMZ261-362-364-563.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for LMZ261-362-364-563.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Sunday for LMZ643>646.



Update . mbK Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . mbK Saturday THROUGH Thursday . Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi66 min NW 5.1 G 6 11°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi26 min W 2.9 G 4.1 10°F 1043.7 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi26 min E 8.9 G 12 20°F 1043.3 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 43 mi54 min E 5.1 G 8 20°F 12°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI35 mi13 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds3°F-2°F79%1044.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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W13NW10NW9W8NW8NW8W7NW5NW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4SW3Calm
1 day agoNW4CalmNE5N7N6E5E6--N6NW7NW5NW6NW9NW7NW9W10W16
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2 days agoSW5SW5SW8SW7W10W10W10W13W12
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W10W7W8W7W8W6W9W6W3NW5N6N4CalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.