Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 7:30PM Friday April 10, 2020 7:26 AM CDT (12:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:57PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ669 Expires:202004101530;;864248 Fzus63 Kmkx 100750 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 250 Am Cdt Fri Apr 10 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Gusty northwest winds will gradually ease this morning as low pressure of 28.7 inches over the eastern seaboard continues east while high pressure of 30.4 inches builds east from the great plains. Winds will diminish today as that high weakens to 30.0 inches as it moves into the tennessee valley. Strong low pressure of 29.3 inches is then expected to develop in the southern plains early Sunday, and lift through the ohio valley and into michigan by late Sunday night or early Monday morning while deepening to 28.9 inches. This will bring another period of stronger winds and likely gales to lake michigan. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-101530- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 250 am cdt Fri apr 10 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Today..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt late this morning, then diminishing to 10 to 20 kt early this afternoon backing to southwest 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Rain in the evening, then rain likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Rain likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Sunday night..East winds to 30 kt backing to northwest gales to 40 kt. Rain. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Monday..Northwest gales to 45 kt becoming west. Rain. Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
LMZ669


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI
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location: 43.71, -87.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 101048 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 548 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

UPDATE. Made some adjustments to boost morning sky cover as cloud deck from nrn/cntrl WI holding together as it slides sse into srn WI.

PC

AVIATION(12Z TAFS). Surface high draws closer today, with winds shifting from northwest to west with a continuing decreasing trend. VFR deck continues to hold together as it trends into srn WI. Surface high builds in later today into tonight, with some mid level warm air advection kicking in later in the night. So, some increase in VFR cloud coverage then.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 416 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today And Tonight . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Influence of mid-level cyclonic flow and low level thermal trough gradually eases as the day wears on. Low level anticyclonic flow takes hold this afternoon, with winds easing and shifting from the northwest to the west and southwest. Weak warm air advection kicks in as well.

Watching the stratocu deck trending south/southeast from nrn WI. Some of this may hold together into srn WI, but perhaps more in a scattered form. Surface ridge axis shifts to our east tonight, though by and large winds will be on the light side. With dry air in place, should see a decent temp dropoff. However, as night wears on, some increase in clouds expected with 850/925 warm air advection becoming a bit more pronounced.

Saturday Into Monday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing more consistency with the strong low pressure system moving through the region during this period, though there still remains uncertainty with the placement of the best frontogenesis response and subsequent snow amounts for Sunday night into Monday morning. This system has the potential for high impacts across Wisconsin Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Models are generally showing warm air and moisture advection Saturday into the area, with increasing chances for rain. An inverted trough setting up across the area Saturday night into Sunday then brings in widespread rain. May see a few claps of thunder Sunday as well, per very weak elevated instability on forecast soundings.

Main impacts and uncertainty comes Sunday night into Monday morning, as the strong low undergoes cyclogenesis and rapidly deepens as it shifts from southeast Missouri to southeast Ontario. The NAM track looks too far to the northwest, so ignored that model solution. The GFS/ECMWF/GFS ensembles seem to be in relatively decent agreement on the low track described above.

However, they are differing on where the deformation/mid-level frontogenesis response will set up. The ECMWF favors more of a La Crosse to Green Bay track for the highest QPF, with the GFS more over southern and eastern Wisconsin. The Canadian is showing somewhat of a blend of the ECMWF/GFS output. Thus, QPF and snow amounts across the area during this time are showing a fairly wide range per model certainty output.

Given the uncertainty here, used the blended model output for QPF Sunday night into Monday morning. Forecast soundings from GFS show a west to east change to snow Sunday night, lingering into Monday morning before ending. Given the range of QPF amounts during this period, there is a shot at several inches of accumulating snow over the area. Best potential would be northwest of Madison.

In addition, strong winds are possible with the deepening low Sunday night into Monday, which would add to the impacts. This is supported by the ensemble percentile output for winds, which are near the 99th percentile for speeds.

Will begin to message this potential for Sunday night into Monday morning, but will not mention specific amounts yet, until more model certainty can be found. Keep up with the forecast for this period.

In addition, the QPF amounts of around 1.00 to 1.25 inches per GEFS plumes suggest river rises are possible early next week. Some of this may be wet snow, but some river response should occur.

LONG TERM .

Monday Night Through Thursday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are generally showing the region remaining within cyclonic flow at 500 mb during this period. There is a fairly potent 500 mb shortwave trough that shifts east through the area Wednesday, with some timing differences between the models. There should be enough low level moisture and steep low level lapse rates to bring chances for rain/snow showers Wednesday. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions but below normal temperatures are forecast through the week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

Surface high draws closer today, with winds shifting from northwest to west with a continuing decreasing trend. MVFR stratus across northwest and northern WI continues to head towards srn WI, though expecting some breakup to mostly SCT conditions. However, can't rule out some early BKN coverage. Surface high builds in later today into tonight, with some mid level warm air advection kicking in later in the night. So, some increase in VFR cloud coverage then.

MARINE .

Per obs and input from surrounding lake offices, will drop the headlines, both the open lake Gale Warning and nearshore Small Craft Advisory. Surface high pressure ridge will be drawing closer throughout the day, so further easing of the winds expected as the day wears on.

Winds will start to pick up late Saturday, as low pressure approaches the region from the southwest. There will be an increasing potential for gales later in the weekend into early next week, as a strengthening low moves through the region.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Collar Saturday through Thursday . Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi87 min WNW 11 G 12 35°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi47 min WNW 7 G 12 34°F 1016.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi47 min NNW 15 G 21 35°F 1013.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 43 mi63 min NNW 5.1 G 12 35°F 23°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI35 mi34 minWNW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy35°F23°F61%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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N11CalmNW9NW11
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1 day agoSW3S4CalmCalm4W10W8W10W11
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SW8SW7W10W10W9W9NW10N8W13
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2 days agoCalmW3S6S9S10--S11SE5E5NE8NE9N4N6NW6NW5NW6NW4CalmNE7CalmCalmS3SW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.