Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan, WI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:40PM Sunday August 25, 2019 7:25 PM CDT (00:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:33AMMoonset 4:03PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ669 Expires:201908261200;;201640 Fzus63 Kmkx 252042 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 342 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Persistent southeast winds are expected tonight into Monday between departing high pressure of 30.3 centered over the northeast us this morning and an approaching low. This will result in building waves, especially across western portions of lake michigan. Winds will pick up tonight, with gusts to 25 knots possible. Gusty south and then west winds are likely Monday night into Tuesday as the low deepens across southwest ontario and drags an associated cold front through the area. Westerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots will be possible Wednesday as the low to the north slowly moves eastward. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-261200- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 342 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely with slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday night..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest. Showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ669


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI
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location: 43.71, -87.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 252328
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
628 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Update Initial weak mid-level wave along with some mid-level
moisture advection producing scattered light showers over south
central wi into northern il. Showers should become more isolated
this evening, but upstream stronger mid-level wave over northern
mo is still expected to take a northeast track overnight into
Monday morning as deeper column moisture moves into the area.

This will likely bring a period of more widespread showers to the
area, especially southeast areas. Precipitable water roughly
doubles overnight into Monday morning to around 1.5". Instability
remains negligible through Monday morning.

Aviation(00z tafs) Isolated to scattered light showers expected
this evening, will become more widespread later tonight into
Monday morning across much of the area. ExpectVFR ceilings to
lower to MVFR and possibly ifr late tonight and Monday morning.

Prev discussion (issued 345 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019)
short term...

tonight through Monday night... Forecast confidence is medium to
high...

the persistent high pressure that was over the area this weekend
has shifted off to the east. To our west a few shortwaves exist
and will play a role in rain chances tonight through Monday night.

Winds at the surface have shifted to the SE while winds aloft have
backed to the south and southwest. This has allowed moisture
mainly above 700mb to start to stream back into the area. The
first shortwave is lifting into mn and subtle lift associated with
this feature has resulted in some light returns. However, drier
air still lingering near the surface is preventing some of this
rain from reaching the ground. Kept in a slight chance as this
narrow axis of rain shifts east.

As we head into the overnight hours, a system moves out of ks ne
towards central il. Moisture transport with this feature will be
better and rain chances increase through the night as the
shortwave nears the area. Forecast soundings would suggest an
almost completely moist adiabatic profile overnight so have kept
thunder out of the forecast. This is a shift from previous
guidance, that were advertising this system would stay to our
south and east keeping the area mostly dry tonight. But all the
new guidance made a shift westward with the track of the rainfall
and based on the current movement of activity to our SW this shift
seems reasonable. So, have modified pops and QPF for tonight to
reflect this change.

Latest trends in model guidance would suggest a less favorable
setup for strong to severe storms on Monday. The shift in the
overnight into Monday morning rainfall would likely mean that we
won't be able to heat up as much as previous guidance was
suggesting. The timing of the cold front has also been delayed
with the latest runs putting it into the area overnight Monday
into Tuesday. As the main upper level system moves into wi it
pivots N NE towards northern wi Monday night. This would take the
stronger forcing away from the area and we may not have as much of
a focus for showers and storms along the front. There is also a
signal in guidance for some type of splitting of precip over
southern wi. This could be the result of the better forcing going
north, and any storms that do develop along the front are going to
shift E SE towards the better instability, which would be away
from the area. Lots of mesoscale details to be worked out and
won't be able to really pinpoint those until the showers tonight
move through the area. So, for now have kept higher chances of
showers with only slight chances for storms for Monday into Monday
night.

Long term...

Tuesday through Wednesday night... Confidence is medium.

Dry but breezy conditions are expected as a low pressure system
exits the area to the northeast. Another upper level disturbance
will swing a trough axis through Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning. This could spark off an isolated shower, but with a lot
of dry air in place it is not likely. The main story will be
strong westerly winds winds that move in for Wednesday behind the
mid level trough axis. 850 mb winds will be around 30 to 40
knots. At this point believe we will see some 30 knot gusts mix
down to the surface Wednesday afternoon over land and over lake
michigan. Winds will then decrease overnight as we head into
Thursday.

Thursday through Sunday... Confidence is medium.

Upper levels seem a bit active with multiple shortwave troughs
moving through. The main timeframes look to be Thursday evening
into Friday and again on Sunday. The question will be is there
enough moisture in the atmosphere to develop showers? At this
point it looks like the best moisture remains to our south.

Therefore have a dry forecast in place through the weekend. If
there is a trend for more moisture to be available later on this
week, will probably have to add in rain chances.

For temperatures we will see highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s
Wednesday through Sunday.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

increasing moisture tonight will result in ceilings gradually
lowering towards MVFR. A stray light shower is possible this
afternoon and evening but rain chances start to increase towards
Monday morning. Winds stay out of the SE through the period and
it's possible that a few gusts near the lake could be upwards 20
to 25 knots Monday afternoon. If showers become more widespread
Monday morning, CIGS could end up borderline ifr MVFR with
visibilities of 2 to 3 miles.

Marine...

a stronger system approaching the area from the west will result
in increasing winds and waves tonight into Monday. The E SE winds
we've had the past few days have kept waves between 2 to 3 feet.

Winds ramp up to 20 to 25 knots by Monday morning and this will
result in waves building towards 3 to 5 feet with some 6 foot
waves possible. A small craft advisory is in effect for Monday.

A cold front moves through the area Monday night shifting winds to
the west, which will allow waves to come down. Another system will
move across the lake on Wednesday bringing winds to near gales.

Beaches...

gusty southeasterly winds expected tonight through Monday night
will result in building waves through the period. Waves of 2 to 3
feet this evening will build to 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves
as high as 6 feet Monday afternoon. A high swim risk is in effect
for all lake michigan beaches tonight through Monday night.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement from Monday morning through late Monday
night for wiz052-060-066.

Beach hazards statement from 1 am cdt Monday through late Monday
night for wiz071-072.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 1 am Monday to 1 am cdt Tuesday for
lmz646.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Monday to 1 am cdt Tuesday for
lmz644-645.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Monday to 7 am cdt Tuesday for
lmz643.

Update... mbk
tonight Monday and aviation marine... mbk
Monday night through Sunday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi26 min ESE 6 G 6 69°F 1017.5 hPa (-1.6)60°F
45024 38 mi26 min ESE 7.8 G 7.8 68°F 64°F1 ft1018 hPa (-1.4)60°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi46 min ESE 7 G 8.9 71°F 1017.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi46 min ESE 6 G 7 73°F 1018.6 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 43 mi62 min E 5.1 G 11 73°F 55°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI35 mi33 minSE 310.00 miFair68°F57°F68%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4NE3----CalmCalm--SE4E3--CalmCalm--SE8
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1 day ago----N3----------------NW3NE3NE4E4SE9SE8SE8
G17
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2 days agoE3Calm------Calm--Calm--------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.