Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 141422 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 922 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

UPDATE. May need to add some pops in parts of the extreme northwest cwa this morning with Juneau/Adams activity.

PC

MARINE. Gusty southerly winds are expected today with gusts around 25 knots over the open waters and gusts around 20 knots in the nearshore. Chances for thunderstorms move in for the northern half of the lake tonight and expand over the lake for Wednesday. Winds will be lighter Wednesday and shift to the northwest Wednesday night as the front pushes through.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 626 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020)

UPDATE .

Ongoing thunderstorms in northern and western Wisconsin are expected to remain out of the forecast area until this evening.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions will continue through the day today with southerly winds gusting around 20 knots. Lighter winds move in overnight along with thunderstorms chances mainly along and north of a Mineral Point to Madison to Sheboygan line. Expect ceilings to lower overnight with MVFR values along and west of a Monroe to Fond du Lac line. Winds for these areas will shift to the west to northwest into Wednesday morning. Visibilities in any thunderstorm may drop down to MVFR/IFR values.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 351 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Somewhat of a tricky forecast for today with the approaching upper level wave. Activity may remain just northwest of the area today until we see the surface front and and mid level frontogenesis move into central Wisconsin this evening. We may have to watch out for a few severe storms at onset with plenty of shear and instability to work with. Main concern would be gusty winds around 60 mph and maybe a tornado along the surface boundary as there is plenty of low level helicity to work with. Best chance for any thunderstorms overnight will be along and north of a Mineral Point to Madison to Sheboygan line, with the best severe potential north of that line.

A lull will be possible Wednesday morning and could allow us to become more unstable. If we do get a decent break in convection there would be another chance for a few strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon with winds being the main concern. Afternoon activity will be kicked off with the mid level shortwave moving through and allow the front to progress eastward. Convection is expected to be more widespread Wednesday afternoon into the evening. There will be plenty of moisture over the next two days with precipitable water values around 2 inches. Rainfall will be efficient in any thunderstorm and may cause some flooding especially in known trouble spots and low lying areas.

LONG TERM .

Wednesday night through Thursday . Confidence is Low.

Quite a bit of uncertainty in the things will evolve Wednesday into Wednesday night with the stalled front over the region and an incoming shortwave. Convection and or debris clouds from earlier convection may be in place for much of the day over southern WI, limiting our heating some what. Instability looks to be capped at 1,000 J/kg with highs only topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Shear does increase as the shortwave approaches and the right entrance region of the upper jet sets up over the region. So there is still potential for a few stronger storms but believe this would be focused in SE WI closer to the IL border. Latest guidance has trended a bit south with the bullseye for convection as the best heating will be focused over central IL. Could see a situation where an MCS develops over E/SE IA and spreads eastward into IL with much of the convection staying just to our south.

Storms shift east of the region by Thursday morning as high pressure begins to build in. We won't see much of a reprieve from the humidity as dewpoints hold in the 60s. Highs in the lower 80s for Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday . Confidence is Medium.

A dry forecast is expected for Thursday into Friday as the high pressure lingers over the region. The high begins to kick east during the day and increasing southerly flow will bring the heat and humidity back. Some models continue to try and suggest a few afternoon storms are possible as the WAA increases but other than the WAA we'll lack any real forcing. So, will just keep slight chances in there for now. A shortwave riding the northern periphery of the ridge could bring an increased chance of storms late Friday night into Saturday morning. All guidance points to Saturday being the hottest day of the forecast period with highs topping out in the lower 90s. Some models continue to dance around the idea of a few mid 90s but with the morning storm potential on Saturday think that might be a stretch for now.

The center of the upper ridge moves east into the OH/TN Valley region. We'll be on the northern edge of the heat dome so expect continued above normal temps with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. The only big change here is that we'll be in a better position for any shortwaves moving along the ridge to spark thunderstorms over our area. So, things could be active heading into next week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions are expected today with gusty southerly winds. High clouds will move into the area as well, ahead of thunderstorm activity to our northwest. Thunderstorms will slowly work their way eastward this evening with areas towards far southeast Wisconsin potentially remaining dry until late Wednesday morning. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorm.

MARINE .

Gusty southerly winds are expected today with gusts around 25 knots over the open waters and gusts around 20 knots in the nearshore. Chances for thunderstorms move in for the northern half of the lake tonight and expand over the lake for Wednesday. Winds will be lighter Wednesday and shift to the northwest Wednesday night as the front pushes through.

BEACHES .

Gusty southerly winds will create dangerous swimming conditions for beaches in Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties. A Beach Hazards Statement will be in effect for these counties from 1PM to 10PM tonight. Life threatening waves and currents are expected.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this evening for WIZ052-060.

LM . None.

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . RAH Wednesday through Monday . Stumpf

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	27 mi	121 min	S 15 G 16	71°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	42 mi	21 min	S 7 G 8.9	75°F			1017.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	43 mi	81 min	S 9.9 G 15	72°F			1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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NW7 G10

W7 G10

W9 G12

W7 G11

NW7 G13

NW7 G11

W6

NW3 G7

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SE1 G4

SE4 G7

S5 G8

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N8 G14

N7 G16

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N8 G14

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N5 G11

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N3 G6

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W6 G9

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W8 G12

NW6 G10

W6 G11

W6 G9

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W4 G7

W3 G6

W3 G7

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SW1

SW1 G4

NE1

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NE4 G8

NE3 G8

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N5 G9

N6 G11

N9 G15

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI	35 mi	2.1 hrs	S 10	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	73°F	64°F	74%	1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)

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N8

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NW10 G16

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NW9 G16

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NE14 G22

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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