Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:32PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 11:00 AM CDT (16:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:03AMMoonset 2:50PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ669 Expires:202007142130;;835290 Fzus63 Kmkx 141402 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 902 Am Cdt Tue Jul 14 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.0 inches over michigan will continue to push eastward today. A trough of low pressure averaging 29.8 inches over the central plains will begin to approach the area today. Southerly winds will be breezy today with gusts around 25 knots. Winds be lighter Wednesday and will shift to the northwest as the front passes through Wednesday night. Widespread Thunderstorms are expected from late tonight through most of Wednesday. High pressure of 30.1 inches will then build into southern wisconsin on Thursday. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-142130- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 902 am cdt Tue jul 14 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt veering to west. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ669


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI
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location: 43.71, -87.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 141422 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 922 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

UPDATE. May need to add some pops in parts of the extreme northwest cwa this morning with Juneau/Adams activity.

PC

MARINE. Gusty southerly winds are expected today with gusts around 25 knots over the open waters and gusts around 20 knots in the nearshore. Chances for thunderstorms move in for the northern half of the lake tonight and expand over the lake for Wednesday. Winds will be lighter Wednesday and shift to the northwest Wednesday night as the front pushes through.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 626 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020)

UPDATE .

Ongoing thunderstorms in northern and western Wisconsin are expected to remain out of the forecast area until this evening.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions will continue through the day today with southerly winds gusting around 20 knots. Lighter winds move in overnight along with thunderstorms chances mainly along and north of a Mineral Point to Madison to Sheboygan line. Expect ceilings to lower overnight with MVFR values along and west of a Monroe to Fond du Lac line. Winds for these areas will shift to the west to northwest into Wednesday morning. Visibilities in any thunderstorm may drop down to MVFR/IFR values.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 351 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Somewhat of a tricky forecast for today with the approaching upper level wave. Activity may remain just northwest of the area today until we see the surface front and and mid level frontogenesis move into central Wisconsin this evening. We may have to watch out for a few severe storms at onset with plenty of shear and instability to work with. Main concern would be gusty winds around 60 mph and maybe a tornado along the surface boundary as there is plenty of low level helicity to work with. Best chance for any thunderstorms overnight will be along and north of a Mineral Point to Madison to Sheboygan line, with the best severe potential north of that line.

A lull will be possible Wednesday morning and could allow us to become more unstable. If we do get a decent break in convection there would be another chance for a few strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon with winds being the main concern. Afternoon activity will be kicked off with the mid level shortwave moving through and allow the front to progress eastward. Convection is expected to be more widespread Wednesday afternoon into the evening. There will be plenty of moisture over the next two days with precipitable water values around 2 inches. Rainfall will be efficient in any thunderstorm and may cause some flooding especially in known trouble spots and low lying areas.

LONG TERM .

Wednesday night through Thursday . Confidence is Low.

Quite a bit of uncertainty in the things will evolve Wednesday into Wednesday night with the stalled front over the region and an incoming shortwave. Convection and or debris clouds from earlier convection may be in place for much of the day over southern WI, limiting our heating some what. Instability looks to be capped at 1,000 J/kg with highs only topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Shear does increase as the shortwave approaches and the right entrance region of the upper jet sets up over the region. So there is still potential for a few stronger storms but believe this would be focused in SE WI closer to the IL border. Latest guidance has trended a bit south with the bullseye for convection as the best heating will be focused over central IL. Could see a situation where an MCS develops over E/SE IA and spreads eastward into IL with much of the convection staying just to our south.

Storms shift east of the region by Thursday morning as high pressure begins to build in. We won't see much of a reprieve from the humidity as dewpoints hold in the 60s. Highs in the lower 80s for Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday . Confidence is Medium.

A dry forecast is expected for Thursday into Friday as the high pressure lingers over the region. The high begins to kick east during the day and increasing southerly flow will bring the heat and humidity back. Some models continue to try and suggest a few afternoon storms are possible as the WAA increases but other than the WAA we'll lack any real forcing. So, will just keep slight chances in there for now. A shortwave riding the northern periphery of the ridge could bring an increased chance of storms late Friday night into Saturday morning. All guidance points to Saturday being the hottest day of the forecast period with highs topping out in the lower 90s. Some models continue to dance around the idea of a few mid 90s but with the morning storm potential on Saturday think that might be a stretch for now.

The center of the upper ridge moves east into the OH/TN Valley region. We'll be on the northern edge of the heat dome so expect continued above normal temps with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. The only big change here is that we'll be in a better position for any shortwaves moving along the ridge to spark thunderstorms over our area. So, things could be active heading into next week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions are expected today with gusty southerly winds. High clouds will move into the area as well, ahead of thunderstorm activity to our northwest. Thunderstorms will slowly work their way eastward this evening with areas towards far southeast Wisconsin potentially remaining dry until late Wednesday morning. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorm.

MARINE .

Gusty southerly winds are expected today with gusts around 25 knots over the open waters and gusts around 20 knots in the nearshore. Chances for thunderstorms move in for the northern half of the lake tonight and expand over the lake for Wednesday. Winds will be lighter Wednesday and shift to the northwest Wednesday night as the front pushes through.

BEACHES .

Gusty southerly winds will create dangerous swimming conditions for beaches in Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties. A Beach Hazards Statement will be in effect for these counties from 1PM to 10PM tonight. Life threatening waves and currents are expected.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this evening for WIZ052-060.

LM . None.

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . RAH Wednesday through Monday . Stumpf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi121 min S 15 G 16 71°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi21 min S 7 G 8.9 75°F 1017.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi81 min S 9.9 G 15 72°F 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI35 mi2.1 hrsS 1010.00 miA Few Clouds73°F64°F74%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5SE7E5E8SE5SE7SE5SE7SE5S3SE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S7S6S10S11S10
1 day agoN8N8N5E9NE6E7E3E3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4
2 days agoNW10
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NW7NW8NW7NW4CalmN3CalmNW3NW3NE14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.