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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1044 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.

ANZ100 1044 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure moves offshore south of the waters tonight and tomorrow, bringing a freshening southwesterly flow. A weak area of low pressure along a cold front crosses the waters Friday night, with a cold front stalling across the waters behind the system this weekend. High pressure mostly passes to the north this weekend. Multiple weak disturbances move along the front this weekend, with a potentially stronger coastal low possible early next week.

FXUS61 KGYX 300347 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1047 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Much warmer weather is expected for Thursday and Friday before a low pressure system will make for unsettled weather on Friday night. A prolonged stretch of unsettled weather is possible through the weekend with a stronger system possible early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
1048 AM Update...
Temperatures continue to fall in some areas with clear skies, low dew points and light winds leading to radiational cooling.
With many areas decoupled, some areas along the coastline and along the hilltops are much warmer this evening. Have lowered temperatures in some areas while others will remain relatively steady through the rest of the night. Otherwise, little in the way of changes expected in the forecast.

Update...
Have lowered temperatures for this evening. Radiational cooling will continue for a few more hours before a southwesterly gradient attempts to break through the inversion. Clouds mostly remain over central New York and min temperatures are near there forecast lows in some areas. A non-diurnal temperature curve will likely develop later tonight. Otherwise very little in the way of changes to the near term portion of the forecast.

Prev Disc...
There's just enough of an upslope component in the low-level flow for a few snow showers to continue in the Whites, but I don't think these will last more than a couple more hours as the flow will back to more west to southwesterly. Otherwise, high pressure shifts east tonight as a weak disturbance passes mostly to the north of the area. This will bring an increase in clouds across the area, especially across the north, where a couple of snow showers may also occur near the International Border.
Winds become light and southwesterly allowing WAA to kick in, and combining with the cloud cover, temperatures probably won't fall too much overnight, perhaps even come up a couple of degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Dry air aloft and a subsidence inversion at around 900mb will keep precip out of the forecast with mostly to party sunny skies during the day on Thursday. The WAA will also give us a warmer day with high temperatures expected to be generally in the lower 40s south of the mountains (based on mixing to around 900-925 mb) while remaining in the 30s farther north.

Quiet conditions continue into Thursday night, and even though skies are forecast to be mostly clear south of the mountains, I think the winds may stay up enough to prevent strong radiational cooling for most areas, except the more sheltered areas.
Forecast lows are still mostly in the 20s, although southern and coastal areas may stay in the low 30s. For the mountains, more clouds are expected as a weak frontal boundary approaches, which may also trigger some light snow across the far north.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overview: Weak low pressure passing to our south on Friday will be the start of a very active extended period. A cold front looks to stall over the region through the weekend, and with multiple shortwaves also swinging through, chances of precipitation will exist through the majority of this period.
The strongest wave looks to arrive in the Monday-Tuesday time frame but uncertainty among the models is still very high.

Details: Continued southwesterly flow will drive temperatures to near 50 degrees along the coast and southern interior, and low to mid-40s elsewhere. Clouds increase through the day as weak low pressure approaches the area. Guidance has trended toward a more northward track that drives more moisture up into our area. This event still looks to be mainly a rain or snow event as ensembles show 850 temperatures solidly above (southern zones) or below (far northern zones and higher elevations)
freezing during the duration of the event. While PoPs have increased for the area, ensemble suites are still in good agreement that QPF will be around 0.25". Light rain and even lighter snow will be pretty much over with by daybreak on Saturday, but high pressure will not be building as expected and will be staved off by a cold front that looks to stall over the area. A weak wave may ride this boundary and spread scattered showers across the area.

Weak waves will continue to ride this stalled boundary through Sunday, but this where models begin differ on the arrival of a stronger wave development of a potential coastal low pressure.
The Euro and Canadian models are favoring this system to get organized Sunday night and move through Monday, while the GFS organizes it pushes it through almost exactly 24 hours later.
Based on how things have changed just recently at the beginning of the period. It seems to still be much too early to try to nail down a time frame. While this looks like a better chance to get some snow flakes down to the coast, ensembles are not in good agreement that we can hold on to the cold air and in shows in the deterministic runs that have begun to show the rain south of the mountains, snow north, pattern we have been seeing.

The Euro and Canadian models show an end to the parade of disturbances in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe and high pressure blossoming across the eastern half of the United States. While the 12Z run of the GFS shows a very deep trough and continued chances of precipitation. With all the model flip- flopping that has been going on, I stayed close to the NBM and will hope that models can start to agree on some of these features as time goes on.

AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Short Term...VFR expected through Thursday night. The only exception may be a very brief period of MVFR ceilings or perhaps a light snow shower at HIE tonight. LLWS may need to be added for the Thursday evening/night period.

Long Term...Conditions should be mainly VFR through the morning on Friday, but will deteriorate during the afternoon as light rain and snow move into the area. Restrictions continue to be possible through the weekend and early next week as numerous systems may bring about MVFR/IFR rain and snow showers.

MARINE
Short Term...High pressure pushes east tonight, with winds becoming southwesterly through Thursday night. Wind gusts are expected to remain just shy of SCA criteria through Thursday but still hovering in the 20 to 25 kt range. The pressure gradient tightens Thursday night, allowing winds to return to SCA levels.

Long Term...Winds and seas fall below SCA thresholds on Friday and remain there through the weekend and early next week as winds shift more north-northeasterly. The system early next week could be a more significant coastal low.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Falmouth Foreside
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Wed -- 12:00 AM EST     9.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
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Wed -- 12:02 PM EST     10.47 feet High Tide
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