Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Falmouth Foreside, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:09PM Thursday July 29, 2021 9:59 PM EDT (01:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:16PMMoonset 11:22AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 622 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight, then becoming se 5 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Isolated tstms. Showers. Areas of fog this evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog in the morning. A chance of showers. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 622 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Southerly winds increase through this evening as a trough approaches from the west. Low pressure tracks near the gulf of maine tonight into Friday with winds picking up again out of the northwest behind it. Northwest winds veer to the southwest, and then southeast, later this weekend as high pressure builds to the south.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falmouth Foreside, ME
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location: 43.72, -70.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 300149 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 949 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure will pass through the region tonight bringing showers and a few thunderstorms along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Cool and drier air will arrive along with gusty northwest winds on Friday with temperatures below normal continuing through the weekend. The next chance for rain comes late Sunday and Sunday night with drier conditions and gradually moderating temperatures expected next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. 945 PM Update . Heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms continue to move eastward across southern NH and southernmost ME. Rainfall rates are higher than the radar data would suggest, at least at a distance. A few locations in southwestern NH have observed over 4 inches of rain since about 5:30 PM. Current flash flood warnings will remain in effect.

625 PM Update . Have adjusted the forecast a little bit, mainly with PoPs and QPF for the overnight area to tighten gradients a bit. Convective 1-hr rainfall amounts of around 2" have been observed in a few spots this far. Looking like the stripe of highest rainfall amounts will be in south-central NH eastward into the lakes region of Maine where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible before tapering off from west to east later this evening. Will continue to monitor for localized pockets of flash flooding.

Previously .

*A narrow band of localized heavy rain possible this evening through tonight along and/or south of the mountains*

Mid level trough with embedded subtle short waves will advance eastward this evening as surface high pressure shifts further offshore. The subtle short waves will lead to one low passing to our north with a secondary low tracking overhead tonight and then strengthens as it reaches Downeast Maine tomorrow. A surface warm front will advance northward through southern New England this evening and will eventually come to a halt somewhere in central New Hampshire through the coastal plain of Maine. It is along this warm front where the potential exists for localized heavy rain.

There continues to be run to run and model to model variability with regards to where the heaviest rain will set up through tonight. The general consensus is that areas along and south of the White Mountains and western mountains of Maine have to potential to see localized heavy rain while extreme southern New Hampshire looks to be spared from the heaviest of rainfall. The ingredients involve PWATs around 1.5 inches, which is above normal, but not exceptionally high around +1 sigma. Warm cloud depths greater than 10KFT and some elevated instability will also help contribute to heavy rainfall rates. Although the warm front is expected to stall tonight, the overall system will be progressive as well as relatively swift storm motion helping to reduce flash flood potential. Mesoscale guidance suggests that the heaviest cells will be capable of rainfall rates around 1 inch per hour, but overall these heavy cells will have low residence times over a specific area. The main concern will be training cells as storm motion will be somewhat aligned with the mean flow.

As confidence is not there for specific areas to receive rainfall that will exceed flash flood guidance and in collaboration with neighboring offices have decided to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for tonight. Current QPF forecast is swath of 1 to 1.5 inches along and south of the mountains with lesser amounts in extreme southern New Hampshire and near the International Border. For areas that do experience the heaviest cells, localized amounts will approach 2 to 3 inches and as long as these amounts fall over a period greater than 6 hours flooding should be minimized with current 6 hour flash flood guidance generally greater than 2.5 to 3 inches.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Mid level trough axis will cross the area early Friday morning bringing an end to the rain for areas south of the mountains with low pressure deepening as it races toward Downeast Maine. A cold front will be pushing offshore towards mid-day with winds turning to the northwest setting up cold air advection over the area through the afternoon. This CAA regime will lead to gusty NW winds with gust around 25 to 30 mph. As lapse rates steepen over the area there will be low chances for scattered showers or thundershowers, but generally expecting dry and blustery conditions for areas south of the mountains. In the mountains upslope flow will provide better chances for showers and thundershowers through Friday afternoon. Downsloping winds will allow coastal areas to be the warm spot with highs in upper 70s with low 70s along the interior and northern areas staying in the 60s.

Cyclonic flow aloft and cold air advection will continue Friday night. Lows will drop into the 40s north to low 50s south with highest summits approaching the freezing mark. Upslope flow will continue overnight in the mountains and with cooling temperatures there will be a chance for some wet snow mixing in atop Mt Washington by early Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

--Pattern and Implications--

A review of the pattern across NOAM and surrounding waters shows the dominant teleconnection indices being a -EPO and +PNA. These two indices essentially point to the fact that Pacific flow is weak across the central/eastern pacific and does not have a path to penetrate into the lower 48. The PNA pattern is the result of a strong ridge near the spine of the Rockies which reaches nearly to the Arctic coast of Canada. This leads to downstream troughing with a longwave trough axis right overhead . with a Canadian source for the air coming into our region. No significant change to this pattern looks to occur through the weekend and into Monday. Beyond this . there is moderate deterministic/ensemble guidance agreement that the longwave trough axis shifts west of our longitude as Atlantic high pressure ridge builds a bit westward. How this trough evolves during the second half of next week is not well agreed upon as some ensemble members close it off while others weaken/lift it. The overall trends is for it/s weakening however.

This overall pattern evolution favors a gradual moderation in temperatures after a weekend with values a good bit below seasonal norms In terms of precipitation potential. there is good agreement of a shortwave rotating overhead through the larger longwave trough on Sunday night-Monday Beyond this. there are no strong signals for precipitation through the remainder of the long term as we await the eventual evolution of the trough axis to our west.

--Daily Details--

Saturday: Somewhat fall like pattern continues on Saturday as heights throughout the column remain about 2 sigma below climatology with T8s in the -2 to -3 sigma range. That's roughly a 1 in 10 year event . so nothing record breaking . but certainly noticeable. Northwest winds will continue to be somewhat brisk but weaker than on Friday as cold advection will be over. PWATs below 0.5" spell a dry and sunny day which, with good mixing should allow high temperatures to ready the upper 60s in the mountains and lower to perhaps middle 70s to the south given T8s around +7-8C. Despite the sun . be aware that if you are going to hike over the higher terrain . the highest peaks will see wind chills in the 20s with high temperatures in the 40s and strong northwesterly winds.

Sunday - Monday: Positively-tilted shortwave trough axis will be oriented over the Great Lakes Sunday morning . sharpening to more of a neutral tilt as it arrives overhead Sunday night and then moves rabidly east of the region on Monday Ahead of this feature. PWATs push back above 1" to nearly 1.5". While the best jet forcing will be south and east of the region /where a secondary area of surface low pressure is likely to develop/ . the arriving area of mid level height falls and warm advection over a northeastward advancing warm front should allow for an increase in shower chances most likely in the Sunday night period. Given that the mid/upper pattern involves the potential for northern/southern stream phasing . there is some inherent uncertainty . but will continue likely PoP mention in agreement with the model consensus . with some potential for thunder over southern sections given the warm frontal placement if forcing can arrive Sunday afternoon . but beyond that overnight timing would not favor a significant thunder risk. Should see improving conditions by later Monday as the shortwave quickly moves east. Temperatures remain cool through the period . upper 60s in the mountains and lower/mid 70s to the south.

Tuesday - Thursday: Low pressure departs the region by Monday night with a weak ridge of high pressure building back of the area on Tuesday. Beyond this expect temperatures and boundary layer moisture to increase somewhat as we lose the Canadian influence to the lower tropospheric flow. There is certainly some room open for a shortwave to move into the region this period although there is no strong consensus on this Thus. low . but slowly increasing PoPs are in order . close to 12 hour climo values which are near 20% While highs will increase . temperatures aloft and the nearby trough do not indicate that we/ll move much higher than normal by the end of the period Thus. after a day in the 70s throughout the forecast area on Tuesday . 70s north with upper 70s/lower 80s south looks like a good place to start the forecast and watch how the guidance envelope evolves.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term . Clouds will thicken and low through this evening with SHRA and some TS. Lowering cigs and reduced visibility will bring MVFR to IFR conditions overnight with IFR improving to MVFR early Friday morning and VFR by mid morning.NW west will gust to 20 kts Friday afternoon with VFR likely Friday night as winds inhibit fog formation.

Long Term .

VFR Saturday likely continuing through at least early afternoon Sunday. Showers likely with some restrictions most likely in the Sunday night/early Monday period before improving back to VFR. Northwest wind gusts 15 to 20kts expected on Saturday with light winds Saturday night through Sunday night before westerly winds increase to 10-15kts on Monday.

MARINE. Short Term . Southerly winds will gust to 30 kts overnight with seas building to 5 ft. Southerly winds drop off Friday morning and then a cold front crosses the waters mid-day Friday with SCA conditions likely Friday afternoon and night.

Long Term .

Winds/waves will gradually diminish below SCA levels on Saturday and likely remain below SCA criteria for Saturday night through Monday.

HYDROLOGY.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ151-153. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152-154.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 5 mi66 min 63°F 63°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 14 mi50 min S 16 G 21 63°F 63°F1009.3 hPa60°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 33 mi60 min S 4.1 64°F 63°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 34 mi66 min S 9.9 G 13 64°F 66°F1009.6 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 39 mi116 min S 16 G 19 64°F 64°F4 ft1009.8 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 44 mi116 min SSW 16 G 19 64°F 61°F5 ft1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME8 mi69 minS 63.00 miRain Fog/Mist62°F62°F100%1009.9 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME23 mi64 minS 88.00 miLight Rain62°F61°F96%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3W3W4W4W4W3W3CalmCalmCalmE64S7SE9S9S10
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1 day agoN5W4CalmCalmCalmN3NW3N9N7N6N7N9N10N8Calm4E5S9S7S9S6S4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmW5W6W7W5NW6W3W3W3W4W5NW5NW8N6W5S4SE7S8E3N9N3N8N5

Tide / Current Tables for Falmouth Foreside, Maine
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Falmouth Foreside
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Thu -- 03:36 AM EDT     9.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:51 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:09 PM EDT     9.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:15 PM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.16.48.39.49.58.66.74.32.10.70.312.74.97.18.69.28.97.65.53.41.711.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chebeague Point, Great Chebeague Island, Maine
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Chebeague Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:31 AM EDT     9.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:42 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:04 PM EDT     9.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:06 PM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.36.68.49.49.48.36.33.91.80.60.31.22.95.17.28.69.28.77.35.23.11.50.91.3

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