Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gardiner, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 5:16PM Thursday January 21, 2021 6:54 PM PST (02:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:06PMMoonset 1:17AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 218 Pm Pst Thu Jan 21 2021
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning...
Tonight..S wind 5 to 15 kt...backing to E 5 kt early in the evening, then...backing to ne in the late evening and overnight. Cape arago southward, S wind 10 to 15 kt...backing to E late in the evening, then...backing to ne after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft before dark... Becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers.
Fri..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Mixed swell W 7 to 8 ft at 10 seconds and nw 5 to 6 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of showers through the day.
Fri night..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell nw 8 to 9 ft at 10 seconds and W 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..NE wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to N in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 8 ft.
Sat night..N wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft. Rain.
Sun..S wind 10 to 15 kt...veering to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. W swell 6 to 7 ft...building to 11 to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Sun night..NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 7 to 8 ft. NW swell 14 to 15 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 15 ft.
Tue..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft. NW swell 13 ft...becoming W 10 ft.
PZZ300 218 Pm Pst Thu Jan 21 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..South to southwest winds are increasing today ahead of low pressure that will move through the waters from north to south tonight. Small craft advisory conditions will impact the area starting Friday morning with north winds and seas increasing behind the low pressure. Warning level very steep seas will follow by Friday afternoon due to combined gusty north winds and shorter period northwest swell. High pressure builds in Saturday with continued north winds, followed by a strong cold front on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gardiner, OR
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location: 43.73, -124.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 220053 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 453 PM PST Thu Jan 21 2021

Updated AVIATION Section

SHORT TERM. Beginning tonight, a more active pattern arrives in southern Oregon and northern California. Each system is expected to be more potent than the previous. So, beginning tonight, a weak front will move southward into our area. Dry air remains well entrained into this first low, so precipitation amounts will be limited. The big thing is that snow levels will be relatively low since we are already somewhat cold. The best chance for snow will be above 3000 feet, but as we move into showers with the dry air entrained, any spots without clouds could cool down to freezing (away from the coast), and then when a shower moves over the area, some snow will be possible, including a few flurries on the valley floors tonight. Showers will continue on Friday and then dissipate into Friday evening.

Conditions will dry out on Saturday, but will remain chilly across the area. Then, the next system arrives on Sunday and will linger into Monday. This will be the best chance for valley snows so far this year. Snow levels will largely be around 2000 feet, through the early parts of the event, so the low passes may see some impacts, including Hayes Hill, Siskiyou and Sexton Summits. But dry air could also produce some ice loading with evaporative cooling in the west side valleys, so we could easily see snow early on with this event for the valley floors, changing to rain, then back to snow behind the front in the lingering showers on Monday morning. Right now, there is a 60% chance for this scenario, while there is a 40% chance of snow occurring during the entire event everywhere except for the coast. That being said, even if we had snow the entire time, I do not expect accumulations during the day. Overall amounts are not expected to be extremely high, even in the mountains; but valley snow is always impactful.

Things start to dry out Monday night before the next system arriving on Tuesday night. But more information can be found in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM. Jan 26th through Jan 28th. As we head into Tuesday next week the system that moves in comes in unlike the systems that precede it through the weekend and very early next week. Previous systems ahead of this one were in northwest flow at 700 mb, while the one moving in on Tuesday sees the more usual southerly 700 mb flow. However, where the usual strong southerly flow brings warmer temperatures and higher snow levels, except for where the precipitation rates are very high like the Mt. Shasta region, cold air will be wrapped around the upper trough, bringing continued cold temperatures at ridge levels and higher.

As the front moves in Tuesday afternoon 850 mb temperatures are in the -3 to -5C range, which is very unusually cold for this type of strong southerly flow system. This will continue lower snow levels with this system, but with the stronger southerly flow orographic effects will be more dominant, with the bulk of the precipitation in Northern California, especially in the Salmon and Scott Mountains and the Mt Shasta Region, which could see possible amounts of near a foot or more. Heavy precipitation rates are possible on the Slater fire and the Red Salmon Complex Tuesday, but debris flow problems are not expected as the bulk of the precipitation will be as snow with snow levels of 1500 to 2000 ft during this time.

Previous EC showed very little precipitation when I came on shift, but the latest run came very much in line with with the GFS and confidence has increased to Moderate, say 40-50%, in these areas and out of our forecast area in the northern Sierras for this system. An active pattern with snow levels occasionally a bit higher remains into the end of next week. Sven

AVIATION. For the 22/00Z TAFs . VFR will prevail for most areas this evening and it will remain that way overnight over the east side. However, low pressure offshore will move southward tonight resulting in rain with MVFR ceilings along the coast. MVFR ceilings with areas of higher terrain obscured and mostly light precipitation will move inland on Friday. -Spilde

MARINE. Updated 230 PM PST Thursday, 21 Jan 2021 . South to southwest winds are increasing today ahead of low pressure that will move through the waters from north to south tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions will impact the area starting Friday morning with north winds and seas increasing behind the low pressure. Warning level very steep seas will follow by Friday afternoon due to combined gusty north winds and shorter period northwest swell. High pressure builds in Saturday with continued north winds, followed by a strong cold front on Sunday. A high and steep northwest swell is expected behind the cold front Sunday afternoon into Monday. Keene

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 23 mi58 min 51°F6 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 29 mi78 min SSE 1.9 G 6 1013 hPa
SNTO3 33 mi84 min SE 1 48°F 1013 hPa44°F
46128 38 mi174 min 51°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR22 mi58 minN 010.00 miLight Rain49°F41°F74%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmS3S4S5SE4SE4SE4SE5SE7E3CalmSE4SE8S6S5SE9E5N3W5SW7W6SE7Calm
1 day agoN4NE5CalmN6CalmCalmCalmCalmS6S4CalmCalmCalmSE5CalmNE4CalmCalmN3NW3CalmNW3CalmCalm
2 days agoNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4E3N6E9NE7E3E8E9NE8NE7NE8NE7NE7NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:23 AM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:16 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:03 AM PST     6.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:05 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:21 PM PST     1.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:17 PM PST     4.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.32.73.54.55.46.16.46.25.64.73.72.82.11.71.82.22.93.54.14.34.33.93.4

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:12 AM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:17 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:51 AM PST     6.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:04 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:10 PM PST     1.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:12 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:05 PM PST     4.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.32.83.74.65.56.16.265.34.43.42.621.71.82.333.64.14.24.13.73.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.