Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gardiner, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 4:42PM Friday December 6, 2019 7:27 AM PST (15:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 1:42AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 232 Am Pst Fri Dec 6 2019
.hazardous seas warning in effect through Saturday morning...
Today..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft... Building to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. NW swell 4 ft at 12 seconds... Becoming sw 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds and W 5 ft at 14 seconds in the morning, then...building to 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds and W 6 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 10 to 15 kt except S 10 to 20 kt cape arago southward. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. SW swell 7 to 8 ft at 11 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. SW swell 6 to 7 ft. Showers.
Sun..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 5 to 6 ft and nw 3 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..N wind 5 kt...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 4 ft and nw 4 ft...shifting to the nw and sw 3 ft after midnight.
Mon..E wind 5 kt...veering to se in the afternoon, then... Veering to S in the evening...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt...veering to S 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 4 to 5 ft. W swell 6 ft...building to 8 ft and W 5 ft.
PZZ300 232 Am Pst Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. South winds will continue to increase this morning ahead of an incoming cold front and then will remain elevated into Saturday. The front will produce gales in southwest portions of the area and steep seas will steepen to very steep for all areas by the afternoon. These very steep seas will continue through much of Saturday. Conditions will gradually improve Saturday night into Sunday. Relatively calm conditions are forecast for early next week. Another front may arrive as early as Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gardiner, OR
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location: 43.73, -124.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 061238 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 438 AM PST Fri Dec 6 2019

DISCUSSION. A low pressure system is located off the Southern Oregon and Northern California coast, centered near 40 N 138 W. Models remain on track with this system, showing a front moving into the coast on Friday then gradually moving inland late Friday afternoon into Saturday. Southerly winds ahead of the front are already providing some terrain-induced precipitation. The -0.2 degree tilt on the KMAX radar is already showing some light showers in southern Siskiyou County.

Some valleys will continue to see light winds tonight and this combined with weak high pressure and lingering moisture will result in some areas of valley fog this morning. Fog is most likely in valley locations in Josephine and Douglas Counties with patchy fog is possible in portions of the Rogue Valley north of Medford as well as in Klamath County. Temperatures tonight will remain above freezing for western valleys so do not expect any freezing fog conditions. Temperatures will near freezing in Klamath County valleys which may allow for some localized freezing fog.

Otherwise, the trend will be for southerly winds to increase as a mid level southerly jet moves into the area. Expect strong gusty winds to develop over the mountains and in the Shasta and southern Rogue Valley from Medford to Ashland. Gusty winds are also expected to develop late Friday into Saturday in the Summer Lake area. Wind advisories are in place for these winds (see the NPWMFR for details). Models indicate strong gusty winds will peak Friday afternoon through early Saturday, then winds will remain gusty into Saturday afternoon as the low pressure center approaches the coast.

Precipitation will spread into the area on Friday then increase in coverage and intensity Friday evening into Saturday. Models show rain reaching the coast by late Friday morning. Precipitation will become widespread across the area late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Moderate to locally heavy precipitation is expected along the coast during the Friday through Saturday period, especially from Cape Blanco southward, and into Siskiyou County. Amounts of 1.5 to 3.5 inches are expected over Curry County and western Siskiyou County with 2.5 to 4 inches in south- central and southeast Siskiyou County. Otherwise expect periods of moderate precipitation over the area. Snow levels are forecast to remain around 5500 to 6000 feet across much of the area. Of note, the strong and moist southerly flow will allow for lower snow levels down to around 5000 to 5500 feet in south-central and southeast Siskiyou county. This includes the Mount Shasta area. This will allow for significant snow accumulations in this area, mainly above 5500 feet. Moderate snow is also expected in the Warner Mountains in Modoc and eastern Lake County. Winter storm warnings and advisories are in effect for these areas (please see the WSWMFR for details).

The previous shift mentioned the possibility for snow levels to dip enough to impact highway 97 near Chemult. Have taken a closer look at this, but don't believe that snow levels will be able to fall enough to create any significant impacts to Highway 97, but an inch or two of snow could fall i the outskirts of the Chemult area. The other big question of the evening was whether there would be enough cold air trapped in the east side valleys near the Warner Mountains to introduce freezing rain. WPC is providing up to 10% of a chance, but this seems to be high. It is much more reasonable for these areas to see a rain/snow mix as winds ahead of the front will be strong enough to push the cold air out of the valleys.

Streamflows will increase due to the precipitation but flooding is not expected on area streams of rivers. This is because snow levels aren't that high, there's not a lot of snowpack on the ground (6in or less), and streams are running low for this time of year. The same goes for other parts of the forecast area, even where the heaviest rain is expected in Northern California. In general, streamflows in the forecast area are running at 25% of normal or less. So again, much of this precipitation should be beneficial.

This low will move ashore Saturday night into Sunday, and lingering showers are expected in the morning. Precipitation will decrease during the day and we will go back to a brief drier pattern as a ridge quickly builds in. This will allow for areas that saw rain to see fog each early morning. In fact, some of it could become dense, especially in the West Side Valleys.

This front will begin to break down on Tuesday as the next front moves ashore. This front looks a bit weaker than the storm about to reach us, so impacts appear to remain minimal. Then, another couple of weak system could reach us by Thursday and continue into the weekend. This system could bring some gusty winds east of the Cascades and some light precipitation, but impacts look pretty minimal at this point. Still, keep an eye on the forecast as things will undoubtedly change. -Schaaf

AVIATION. For the 06/12Z TAFs . Valley IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog in the Illinois Valley and the Umpqua Basin, to include KRBG are likely to persist until late morning before increasing southeast winds mix them out. Low level wind shear should be expected this morning where the southeast wind is not surfacing. This low level wind shear could prevail into the evening at KOTH and KRBG. VFR conditions are expected to prevail over most of the rest of the area except the Mount Shasta area, where IFR and mountain obscurations exist. Southeast winds will continue to increase today and will become quite gusty late morning into the evening. Precipitation will bring areas of IFR to MVFR cigs to the coastal waters, coast, and southern Siskiyou County today. Mountain obscuration, MVFR conditions, and precipitation intensity and coverage will increase tonight in Saturday morning. BTL/DW

MARINE. Updated 245 AM PST Friday, 6 December 2019 . South winds will continue to increase this morning ahead of an incoming cold front and then will remain elevated into Saturday. The front will produce gales in southwest portions of the area and steep seas will steepen to very steep for all areas by the afternoon. These very steep seas will continue through much of Saturday. Conditions will gradually improve Saturday night into Sunday. Relatively calm conditions are forecast for early next week. Another front may arrive as early as Tuesday. BTL

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Saturday above 5500 feet in the for ORZ031. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST Saturday for ORZ031. Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for ORZ026.

CA . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Saturday above 5500 feet in the for CAZ085. Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for CAZ081. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Saturday above 5500 feet in the for CAZ082-083.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 23 mi28 min 51°F7 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 29 mi52 min SSE 2.9 G 7 50°F1010 hPa
46128 38 mi88 min 52°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR22 mi32 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F45°F93%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5SE6SE6N3N3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S3CalmW3CalmSE4SE4CalmSE3SE6E4SE8S6
1 day agoSE6SE6SE4E3CalmW5W4NW3NW4CalmCalmCalmSE6SE5SE5SE8SE5SE5SE6SE3SE6CalmE7SE3
2 days agoSE8SE9SE7SE7SE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE5SE7SE7SE6NE3SE3SE7CalmSE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:23 AM PST     1.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:02 AM PST     6.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:10 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:47 PM PST     1.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:23 PM PST     4.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.721.71.72.33.24.35.366.36.15.44.53.42.521.92.22.93.74.44.84.74.3

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:12 AM PST     1.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:50 AM PST     6.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:10 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:36 PM PST     1.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:11 PM PST     4.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.91.61.82.43.34.45.466.25.95.24.23.22.41.91.92.333.84.44.74.64.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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