Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gardiner, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 9:02PM Saturday July 4, 2020 11:49 PM PDT (06:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:02PMMoonset 4:02AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 820 Pm Pdt Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 1 to 2 ft at 16 seconds and nw 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun..NE wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 2 to 3 ft at 16 seconds and nw 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 2 to 3 ft at 16 seconds and nw 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..N wind 5 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 1 to 2 ft and nw 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning.
Mon night..NW wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 ft and sw 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..SE wind 5 kt...veering to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft and sw 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Tue night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 ft and sw 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N wind 5 kt...becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 ft.
Thu..N wind 5 kt...backing to nw. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
PZZ300 820 Pm Pdt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. A low, long period south swell will continue this weekend. This will result in waves breaking further from the coast than normal, increasing the size of the surf zone. This could also result in problematic bar conditions, especially for mariners with little experience in such conditions. Relatively light winds and low seas are otherwise expected on the open ocean into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gardiner, OR
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location: 43.73, -124.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 050309 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 809 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2020

DISCUSSION. Sunny and hazy skies continue over the forecast are today. Wildfire smoke from Siberia is likely still contributing to some reduced air quality today. Clouds will make their way inland from the coast tonight, likely filling in at the coast, coastal valleys, and Umpqua Basin late tonight and early Sunday morning. These clouds will clear by middle to late Sunday morning, and temperatures Sunday will be very similar to today, right around normal for this time of year.

No changes to the forecast are expected this evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more details on the continued quiet weather pattern.

AVIATION. For the 05/00Z TAF Cycle . VFR will continue through Sunday evening south and east of the Umpqua Valley. Otherwise, another marine push is expected tonight with MVFR ceilings returning to the coast north of Port Orford around 07z, spreading into the Umpqua Valley around 11z. Similar to today, the stratus will gradually gradually erode Sunday morning. -DW

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PDT Saturday, 4 July 2020 . Relatively light winds and low seas are expected this weekend. However, a low long period south swell will build into Sunday. Waves breaking farther from shore could result in problematic bar conditions. This will also bring an increased sneaker wave risk, especially south of Cape Blanco. Of note, after days of significant upwelling, water temperatures from Port Orford to the Point Saint George Buoy 27 continue to range from 45 to 48 degrees Fahrenheit.

The thermal trough will return next week, but models are showing it taking up a more inland position. This would keep north winds in place over the area, but at a weaker strength than during a typical event.

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, 4 July 2020 . No lightning was observed yesterday, July 3rd, 2020.

West and northwest winds are on track to be breezy and gusty this afternoon and evening, generally 7 to 15 mph with gusts 15 to 25 mph. They should be on the down swing by 8PM PDT except in places with local effects for later evening winds such as Summer Lake.

With the overall weather pattern changing very little this week, we're not expecting much in the way of day to day changes, overall. However, shortwave impulses and related mostly dry cold fronts Monday and Thursday are both likely to drive the most appreciable weather changes of the week. These will bring with them inland surges in the marine layer, increased and gusty winds, and slightly cooler weather behind them. There also is a slight chance of thunderstorms in NE Lake County late Monday afternoon into early Monday evening.

For Thursday, July 9th both the ECE and GEFS continue to indicate a somewhat stronger shortwave trough and front moving through with the GEFS suggesting some precipitation potential across the northwestern portion of the forecast area. The main effect is likely to be another cool down, more marine layer over NW sections of the area, and some gusty winds. The tail end of this trough is expected to linger through about July 12th.

Thereafter, both the ECE and the GEFS continue to indicate temperatures are most likely to go above normal through the end of the month. This is notable because late July through early September are typically the core of both our wildfire and smoke season in the Medford NWS forecast area. ~BTL

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 214 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2020/

DISCUSSION . Long wave troughing will remain over the PacNW for the remainder of the weekend and well into next week. This will keep the area under near to slightly below normal temperatures with largely dry conditions and breezy afternoons. Expect the nightly return of marine stratus along the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco, and into the Umpqua Basin. These clouds will linger into the morning hours, but will give way to sun in the afternoons. Overall, changes in the day to day weather will be subtle and anything more notable will be due to shortwave troughs moving through the larger scale trough at times during the upcoming week.

One such shortwave trough is expected Monday into Tuesday. For most of the area, this trough will bring a slight cooling trend with some enhanced afternoon breezes. However, there will be enough moisture and instability along with a trigger to warrant a slight chance of thunderstorms for the northern portions of Klamath and Lake counties Monday afternoon. Another weak disturbance will move through on Tuesday and this could bring a chance for some light showers along the coast from North Bend northward.

Another, potentially stronger, shortwave trough is expected to pass through the area Thursday. Models continue to vary in the strength of this trough and whether it will deliver any precipitation to area. The EC and it's ensembles keep the area dry except for the immediate coast north of Cape Blanco. The GFS and it's ensembles are a bit more ambitious with precipitation, but even the wettest solutions only bring a few hundreths at best to coastal areas. Given the differences here, have leaned on the National Blend of Models for the forecast, which brings some slight chances for precipitation along the coast north of Cape Blanco and along the Cascades north of Crater Lake. As for any thunderstorm potential with this trough, current parameters look to be too stable in our area for thunderstorm concerns. The better area of moisture and instability looks to north and east of the area. However, will continue to monitor for any changes. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for ORZ021-022.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 23 mi84 min 59°F4 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 29 mi74 min Calm G 0 66°F1023.9 hPa
SNTO3 33 mi80 min Calm 53°F 1025 hPa52°F
46128 38 mi50 min 55°F 58°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR22 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair55°F54°F96%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3SE4SE4S4S4SE33NE7N3NW43NW6N8N11NW10NW13NW12NW12NW10N8N6NW4Calm
1 day agoN4N6NW3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N6N6NW5NW10NW10NW12NW13N13N12NW12NW10NW9N6NW4NW3
2 days agoNE3E3CalmSE4SE3S4SE4SE4Calm3N9NW12N15
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Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
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Sun -- 01:05 AM PDT     7.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:59 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:24 AM PDT     -1.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:01 PM PDT     5.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM PDT     2.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:00 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.17.57.26.24.62.70.8-0.6-1.3-1.3-0.41.12.84.35.35.65.34.53.52.72.42.63.54.8

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:52 AM PDT     7.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:58 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:13 AM PDT     -1.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:49 PM PDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM PDT     2.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.17.46.95.84.12.20.5-0.8-1.4-1.1-0.11.434.45.35.55.14.33.32.62.42.73.75

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.