Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gardiner, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:43PM Thursday July 29, 2021 2:39 PM PDT (21:39 UTC) Moonrise 10:55PMMoonset 11:07AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 204 Pm Pdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Tonight..N wind 10 to 20 kt except N 10 to 15 kt cape arago southward. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SW swell 1 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell sw 1 ft at 14 seconds and W 1 to 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Cape arago southward, N wind 10 to 15 kt...easing to 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell sw 1 ft at 13 seconds and W 1 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat..N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell sw 1 ft and W 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell sw 1 ft and W 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell sw 1 ft and W 3 ft.
Sun night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell sw 1 ft and W 3 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell sw 2 ft and W 2 ft.
Tue..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell sw 2 ft and W 2 ft.
PZZ300 204 Pm Pdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High pressure centered to the west and lower pressure inland will continue to bring general north winds to the coastal waters through at least early next week. Northerly winds will increase and seas will steepen to advisory levels this morning for much of the area south of cape blanco and will likely to continue into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gardiner, OR
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location: 43.73, -124.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 291805 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1105 AM PDT Thu Jul 29 2021

. Updated Aviation Discussion .

DISCUSSION. No updates are needed this morning. Fairly typical summer conditions are occurring this morning with hazy skies across the region due to wildfire smoke, mainly from the Dixie Fire in California. In addition, there are some high level clouds streaming over the region this morning and marine stratus is hugging the coast. The main concern over the next few days will be hot temperatures and thunderstorms. The focus for this afternoon's package will be on refining the thunderstorm potential through the weekend. For more details on the heat, as well as current thoughts on the thunderstorm forecast, see the previous discussion below. /BR-y

AVIATION. For the 29/18Z TAF Cycle . The LIFR Cigs and vsbys at the coast have largely burnt off, yet remain offshore. They will return overnight, as early as 4Z is possible; but 06Z is more reasonable, which is expressed in the TAF.

Elsewhere, VFR is expected for the most part since smoke from wildfires is not too much of an issue per monitoring sensors and satellite, except for the Jack Fire east of KRBG and west of Diamond Lake. However, the smoke from the Jack fire is confined to a small area right around the fire.

We're already seeing some showers develop around the West Side, and they'll continue to develop inland and spread east of the Cascades this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and near the Cascades, Siskiyous, and Marble Mountains later this afternoon and evening. Expect little in the way of rain, yet look for gusty winds near any thunderstorms that do form. - Schaaf/Smith

MARINE. Updated 915 AM PDT Thursday, 29 July 2021 . High pressure centered to the west and lower pressure inland will continue to bring general northerly winds to the coastal waters through at least early next week. The ingredient that will roughen up the seas a bit is the northerly winds over the south of Cape Blanco due to a weak to moderate thermal trough developing Thursday morning and continuing into early next week. Models begin to differ around Tuesday, with some expecting northerlies to increase and others showing them decreasing. ~BTL/Smith

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 300 AM PDT Thu Jul 29 2021/

DISCUSSION . 29/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

There was a major earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday evening, but the generated tsunami was small and there is no threat to the southern Oregon coast at this time.

The Medford forecast area remains under south to southwest flow aloft between a long wave trough in the Gulf of Alaska and a strong high over the central U.S. This pattern is not going to change much initially.

It will be very hot over the inland areas Thursday and Friday, and heat risk is a concern west of the Cascades. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 100s in the valleys of Douglas, Josephine, Jackson and western/central Siskiyou Counties. Overnight lows will remain quite warm, in the mid 60s to lower 70s, offering little relief from the heat. An excessive heat warming (NPWMFR) remains in effect for these areas Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.

Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream over the area. This, combined with strong surface heating, will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers over areas inland of the Coast Range. The highest surface based lifted indices, ranging from -1.5 to -4.0, are over western Siskiyou county, extending north and east over Josephine and Jackson counties, then up the Cascades into northern Klamath county. 850 mb based lifted indices highlight roughly the same area.

On Friday, the best lifted indices are less widespread, with the favored areas being area area arcing from the Mount Shasta area northwest into the Kalmiopsis and the northern Cascades. However, a stronger short wave will move through during maximum surface heating, so convection may actually be more widespread Friday, especially east the the Cascades.

The ridge will retrograde and amplify this weekend while the offshore trough moves northeast. However, increased cloud cover will make for a significantly cooler, but still hot, day Saturday. Sunday and Monday won't be much different in that regard. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue, but due to reduced surface heating, the location and coverage will depend more on the trajectory of short waves embedded in the upper level flow. That is an uncertain forecast at this time.

The ridge will weaken Monday through Thursday while the trough remains in place. Flow aloft will turn more westerly with time , and this will cut off the flow of monsoonal moisture. Therefore, the Tuesday forecast moves the area of showers and thunderstorms off to Lake County Tuesday, and Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry. Temperatures won't change much, as the cooling of the air mass will be roughly balanced by heating due to less cloud cover.

AVIATION . For the 29/06Z TAF Cycle . LIFR ceilings have moved into locations along the coast tonight and those ceilings will likely persist into the early morning hours. Eventually, these ceilings will burn off shortly after sunrise.

Smoke from wildfires is not too much of an issue per monitoring sensors and satellite, except for the Jack Fire east of KRBG and west of Diamond Lake. However, the smoke from the Jack fire is confined to a small area right around the fire.

We'll see scattered thunderstorms develop along and near the Cascades, Siskiyous, and Marble Mountains later this afternoon and evening. Expect little in the way of rain, yet look for gusty winds near any thunderstorms that do form. -Smith

MARINE . Updated 225 AM PDT Thursday 29 July 2021 . There was a earthquake of magnitude of 8.2 detected near the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday evening. The tsunami warning center has determined there is no tsunami threat for the Oregon or California coastline.

Otherwise, high pressure centered to the west and lower pressure inland will continue to bring general northerly winds to the coastal waters through at least early next week. The ingredient that will roughen up the seas a bit is the northerly winds over the south of Cape Blanco due to a weak to moderate thermal trough developing Thursday morning and continuing into early next week. Models begin to differ around Tuesday, with some expecting northerlies to increase and others showing them decreasing. ~BTL/Smith

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 300 AM Thursday 29 July 2021 . Deep southerly flow will continue to bring monsoonal moisture into the area through Monday. It will be quite hot through Friday over the inland areas, especially the west side, with the hottest day on Friday.

High resolution model guidance is showing some terrain-based thunderstorm initiation on Thursday over portions of Siskiyou county in California as well as over the Cascades and the Umpqua Divide in Oregon. Additionally, a weak short wave will move in from the south which could initiate some additional convection during peak heating in northern Klamath County. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of Fire Zone 280 in California and for portions of Fire Zones 621, 622, 623, 617, and 624 in southern Oregon. Elsewhere, the triggers remain relatively weak and isolated storms will be possible east of the Cascades.

A similar set up will occur on Friday, but with additional moisture moving in at the mid levels and a stronger trigger moving up from the south, the chances for scattered thunderstorms will spread over a larger area of southern Oregon and northern California, including areas east of the Cascades. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect Friday afternoon and evening for most of the areas covered by the Thursday Red Flag Warning, with the addition of portions of Klamath, Lake, and Modoc Counties. See RFWMFR for more details.

It is worth noting that some of our west side valleys could experience thunderstorms should our high resolution guidance be on track, but these storms will likely flow over the valleys from the surrounding mountains, and be more isolated in nature, this is especially true for Fire zones 620 and 622 both Thursday and Friday.

The moisture will continue moving into our area throughout the weekend, bringing additional cloud cover, some cooler temperatures this weekend, and hopefully some widespread showers. Instability remains relatively high; so a few showers may produce some lightning, but storms should remain isolated despite the scattered nature of showers over the weekend.

Thunderstorm chances will be limited to Lake County Tuesday, and Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for ORZ617-621>625. Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for ORZ023-024-026. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ617-621>624.

CA . Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for CAZ280-281-284-285. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280. Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ080>082.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

MNF/JRS/CZS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 23 mi44 min 52°F4 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 29 mi64 min N 5.1 G 9.9 1016.9 hPa
SNTO3 33 mi70 min NNE 6 59°F 1017 hPa55°F
46128 38 mi100 min 50°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR22 mi44 minN 17 G 2310.00 miFair63°F55°F76%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
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Thu -- 05:18 AM PDT     5.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:48 AM PDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:07 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:19 PM PDT     6.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:42 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.33.14.25.15.55.44.83.82.61.60.90.71.12.13.34.65.66.165.44.43.32.4

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:05 AM PDT     5.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:37 AM PDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:07 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:07 PM PDT     5.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.43.34.35.15.45.24.53.52.41.40.80.71.32.33.54.75.665.85.14.13.12.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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