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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 305 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
Early this morning..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Snow and rain likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then easing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then rising to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing west late in the morning, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots rising to 15 to 25 knots late in the evening, then becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots after midnight veering west early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 100356 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 956 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 956 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023)

Had a little flurry activity this evening that has pushed out, but looking at another round of flurries/light snow associated with the low-level CAA and mid-level trough. Main impact will be brief bursts of low visibility especially for our central and east central WI counties north and east of I-94. Looking upstream, not seeing much in the way of accumulations or impacts other than wet, slick patches on roadways. Thinking similar conditions and trends as this swath swings through the area tonight and exits by early Sunday morning. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track with cooler and dry stretch through next week.

Wagner

SHORT TERM
(Issued 356 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023)

Tonight and Sunday:

The main upper low will slowly track across northern WI this evening. The vorticity advection moving through the west half of the state is giving us a push of colder air aloft (-8C). The tight pressure gradient between the exiting surface low toward James Bay and the surface high building into the Plains, along with that cold air advection, will give us gusty west to northwest winds for the overnight hours and through Sunday morning.

Light precip is occurring with this vorticity and cold air advection in western WI and will make its way eastward through the mid evening. The moisture is shallow, only saturating up to around -8C, which is barely cold enough for ice crystals. Most upstream obs are showing snow as the predominant precip type but no impacts or accumulation.

There will be one more push of colder air with the upper low as it crosses WI late this evening. This could bring additional light snow or flurries to central and portions of southern WI. Flurries would be the more likely scenario with the drier air and less forcing toward the WI/IL border. Only a dusting of snow is expected overnight, with the highest chance of that dusting toward central WI including Fond du Lac and Sheboygan. With the gusty winds overnight, the snow would not be able to stick and cause travel problems.

Expect clearing skies from west to east Sunday, except lakeshore areas might be "sunny by dark" since cyclonic flow aloft will probably cause strato-cumulus clouds with that lingering low level moisture. It will feel quite cold in the morning with temps in the lower 30s and a brisk northwest wind. Winds will gradually diminish through the day, but temps should only top out in the mid 30s at best.

Cronce

LONG TERM
(Issued 356 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023)

Sunday night through Saturday:

Clear skies and light winds with high pressure overhead should lead to radiational cooling in the early Monday morning hours.
Temperatures are uncertain, but leaned toward the cold side of guidance favoring raw models rather than bias corrected. Fog is possible late Sunday night as well.

The next clipper will traverse Ontario late Monday night into Tuesday, so expect another round of gusty northwest winds Tuesday.
Dry weather is expected from Sunday through at least Friday morning and the ensembles support this idea as well. Temperatures will have a gradual warming trend each day and reach the 40s for Thursday and Friday.

Cronce

AVIATION
(Issued 956 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023)

Southern WI remains socked in with clouds as the upper-level shortwave trough swings across the area overnight. This will continue to bring MVFR ceilings along with some chances for light snow/flurries mainly for areas along and northeast of I-94. SBM, UES, and MKE terminals are mainly looking to be impacted by the activity and could see a brief window where visibilities drop below 2sm and ceilings fall below 1kft, but minimal accumulations of a dusting are expected. MSN is trending more on the edge of this activity and may get in on some of this, but JVL and ENW look to mainly be missed by the snow and lower ceilings and visibility.
Additionally gusty westerly winds continue tonight as well. Light snow activity and lower ceilings will gradually move out of the area through Sunday morning and flight conditions will improved along with the winds as a ridge of surface high pressure begins to build into the region later on Sunday.

Wagner

MARINE
(Issued 956 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023)

Continue to see gusty westerly winds tonight up to 25-30 kt through midday Sunday due to a tight pressure gradient between the departing low pressure over James Bay and high pressure building into the Plains. The gradient will ease as a cold front pushes across Lake Michigan through Sunday morning. However will still see breezy west to northwesterly winds to 20-25 knots through much of the day Sunday. Will see a series of high pressures pass to the south of Lake Michigan for the start of the week and with another one developing overhead through the middle of the week, but could still see some gusty conditions at times between these systems.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 AM Sunday.

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