NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LHZ463 Expires:202312101030;;201555 Fzus63 Kdtx 100225 Glflh
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 925 pm est Sat dec 9 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis..A low pressure, 29.40 inches, lifts into ontario this evening as the systems cold front sweeps east of lake huron. Winds decreased in the wake of the front this evening, but troughing and cold air will settle into the region into early next week. A secondary front tomorrow brings wind gusts approaching 30 knots with some lake effect snow showers across portions of lake huron tomorrow. Brief period of lighter winds for Monday before another strong low pressure system and cold front bring potential for gales Tuesday morning.
lhz462>464-101030- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 925 pm est Sat dec 9 2023
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots veering to the west late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the morning...then becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the evening. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots until early evening...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 100351 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1051 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023


AVIATION

Lower VFR stratus will pivot back east into the region overnight and lower to MVFR. These clouds will linger through Sunday as southwest flow veers to west and northwest with passage of a secondary cold front in the afternoon. By the end of the forecast, northwest flow will favor the lowest cigs over KMBS-KPTK with some chance for VFR along the I-94 corridor.

For DTW...Cigs under 5kft will work into the area overnight and persist on Sunday. Southwest winds will hold into Sunday with gusts back to 15-20 knots by mid morning before veering to northwest late in the forecast period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceilings aob 5000 feet overnight into Sunday afternoon, moderate Sunday night.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 332 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

DISCUSSION...

Potent shortwave marked by 100 knot winds near 500 mb via 09.12 KILX RAOB is embedded within an amplified longwave trough axis extending from Ontario to the Texas Panhandle. This accelerated shortwave has dug into northern Lower Michigan, but its lagged jet dynamics are just now scraping through central-southern Lower.
Uncharacteristically warm south-southwesterly flow tied to the wave has sent temperatures well above average today as the DTW ASOS unofficially hit 63F between 1 and 3 PM today. If this reading holds, it would shatter the previous record from 1946 by 5F.
Meanwhile, a dynamic cold front is currently progressing across Southeast Michigan producing gusty winds and a line of showers before eventually clearing to the east this evening. Prior obs have indicated 40-50 knot peak gusts are occuring along the frontal slope as inbound cold advection activates mixing into the 850 mb LLJ. The influx of colder air also steepens LLLRs to near 7 C/km (0-3 km), and with CIN eroded, additional embedded thunder is likely during the next few hours where MLCAPE builds above 150 J/kg. Part of the Hi-Res suite has demonstrated a more bullish trend in QPF along the southern flank of the front this evening, particularly along/south of I-94 (see 09.12Z ARW and NAM 3km). This is supported by 3 PM radar imagery which shows some organization along the portion of the line closest to the Ohio Border. Given more impressive 850-700 mb ThetaE convergence across this area and notable convective depths (Echo Tops above 15 kft), added thunder to the forecast through this afternoon.

Post-frontal environment characterized by a cooling column, westerly flow, and a 15 degree drop in dewpoints can be expected tonight as thicknesses collapse. A cold-core upper low works across the Great Lakes tonight, but the disturbance will phase with the resident jet axis drawing an inbound lobe of PV northeast. This should help keep conditions mainly dry tonight. Lake effect snow potential is now more favorable Sunday as cyclonic northwesterly flow sets up. Snow bands will still struggle to reach the forecast area since the column appears quite dry above 6 kft AGL and layer winds will continue to weaken throughout the day. Expect only trace accumulations of melting snowfall on grassy/elevated surfaces as temperatures largely hover in upper 30s (to near 40F) Sunday. A few lingering flurries are possible Sunday night before winds veer NNW and flow trajectories take on an anticyclonic curvature.

Height rises commence Monday afternoon into Tuesday with dry conditions under ridging configuration. A clipper low concurrently tracks across the southern shores of Hudson Bay with limited ascent/moisture locally. Zonal flow arrangement ensures seasonable and dry conditions Wednesday followed by a sheared longwave ridge to close out the week while surface high pressure becomes anchored over the southern Ohio Valley. A significant increase in temperatures is also possible Thursday and/or Friday as 850 mb temps are projected to climb back into the upper single digits Celsius per ECMWF and CMC. Upward revisions of highs into the 50s may be needed if current model trends hold.

MARINE...

A strong low pressure system will lift north and east of the Straits into Ontario through the remainder of the afternoon as this systems cold front sweeps across southeast Michigan. The gusty winds along the front will quickly fall off over the next few hours after its passage. Small Craft Advisory conditions will fall off for most of the nearshores this late this afternoon with the exception of Outer Saginaw Bay where wave heights remain elevated enough into tomorrow.
Cold air advection behind the lead front will result in unstable conditions over the waters as winds turn northwest along a secondary front tomorrow morning/afternoon. Wind gusts approach 30 knots on Sunday which will continue to maintain higher wave action across Outer Saginaw Bay and portions of the Thumb. Brief lull in stronger winds expected Monday before another strong low pressure system swings across northern Ontario and Hudson Bay late Monday night into early Tuesday. This system will bring another round of potential gales under southwest to west flow beginning Tuesday morning across Lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for LHZ421.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LHZ441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Detroit, MI,