Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

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Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 9:02PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 12:20 PM EDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:52PMMoonset 5:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201907172015;;782663 Fzus63 Kdtx 171340 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 940 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure, 29.80 inches, will move from northern ohio today into the mid atlantic tonight. Weak high pressure, 29.90 inches will build across lake huron in its wake. A warm front is then forecast to lift into southern michigan Thursday afternoon and evening before lifting into lake huron on Friday. This front will stall over the central and northern great lakes Friday night and Saturday and will be the focus for Thunderstorm activity. Lhz462>464-172015- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 940 am edt Wed jul 17 2019
Rest of today..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 171051
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
651 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Aviation
Remnant low level moisture associated with the sfc low over SE mi
has led to the development of fog and low stratus. Ceilings and
visibilities have been highly variable across the region this
morning. That trend will continue with the onset of daytime heating.

Overall expect the daytime boundary layer growth will support a
predominate MVFR ceiling this morning, likely trendingVFR during the
course of the afternoon. Slightly drier air will be advecting into
the region from the north in the wake of the departing sfc low this
afternoon. This will support a clearing trend during the late
afternoon evening hours.

For dtw... The northwestern flank of the departing sfc low will
sustain showers in the vicinity this morning. The better chances for
morning thunderstorm activity will remain southeast of metro. There
remains enough reports of ifr ceilings in the region to maintain the
mention in the TAF through 15z.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 ft today.

Prev discussion
Issued at 340 am edt Wed jul 17 2019
discussion...

one more forecast cycle with talks of rainfall as a result of the
surface low that is the remnants of TS barry. Cyclonic flow will
continue to reside over far SE lower mi this morning before a
surface trough dropping from central mi early this morning, passes
east of the detroit metro around lunch time today. This trough will
push the last of the deeper moisture off to the east with northerly
flow filling in it's wake.

Until then, we still have a corridor of deep moisture on the
northeast flank of the weak surface low lifting which will lift from
central in toward western lake erie this morning. Low level jet
lifting ahead of the low is sparking a new round of convection to
our south which may clip a portion of SE mi this morning before
pushing east. Current radar returns east of a line generally from
det to adg paints the area of concern where heaviest showers could
fill back in as the low level jet surges northeast. Expectations
based on current radar and model trends are for the bulk of the
heaviest rain to stay south of detroit but monroe county may get
clipped by it as it pivots north resulting in a couple hours of
heavy rain and possible flooding concerns. Luckily this area was
spared of the heaviest rains along i94 on Tuesday where 1 to 4
inches fell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will cover a bid
broader of an area north and west. The trough looks to pass south of
detroit by about 15z marking the end of the heavy rain chances.

Clouds will thin through the afternoon with dry air advection and
building mid level heights. Temps should have enough time to recover
reaching the mid 80s across the area.

Attention then turns to the subtropical ridge building from the
plains into the great lakes. A strong westerly jet racing across
southern canada Wednesday night and Thursday will start pulling much
warmer air eastward into the region. Thursday appears to be the
transition day from the current warm airmass to the much hotter
airmass as the warm front on the lead edge of the EML lifts through
mi. 850mb temps already nearing 20c Thursday afternoon with 500mb
heights around 588dam will boost the temps to near 90. Dewpoints
look to climb from the 60s early in the day to near 70 by evening as
the front progresses northeast. Big question mark will be potential
mcs developing over the midwest Wednesday night on the lead edge of
the EML which should turn SE following the instability gradient.

Based on suspected frontal position it would stay well west of here
but cloud debris in the early part of the day could dampen temps a
bit locally. Currently the forecast heat indices reach 95 to 105f
which would necessitate a heat advisory for at least part of the
area.

Friday and Saturday will be the hottest days of the week. Forecast
850mb temps reach near 23c resulting in high temps in the mid to
upper 90s across the area. With dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices
climb to over 100 both afternoons with little relief coming
overnight as min temps stay in the mid 70s Thursday night through
Saturday night. The possible catch for Friday temps will be the next
round of MCS activity Thursday night initiating over northern mn wi
then tracking ese through lower mi Friday. The strong westerlies
across northern mi and building cap across lower mi will hopefully
keep it north of us but a turn to the southeast will bear watching,
even if its just enhanced cloud cover.

Heat looks to break on Sunday as a pair of cold fronts drop through
the great lakes. Stronger of the two fronts looks to come later in
the evening so temps will still remain elevated in the mid upper
80s. Temps will remain lower through the first part of the week as
mid level troughing builds over the region with surface high
pressure to the west providing northerly flow and drier air.

Marine...

a midlevel frontal boundary will remain draped across the region
heading into tonight, as the remnants of barry lift northeastward
and result in an increasing coverage of showers and embedded
thunderstorms. A lingering pressure gradient across the region will
allow southwest winds to continue gusting around 20 knots the
remainder of the afternoon across saginaw bay and into the central
lake huron basin, along with choppy 2-3 foot waves. As the remnants
of barry move towards the western lake erie basin tonight, winds and
waves will temporarily weaken before becoming fresh northeasterly
Wednesday with gusts 15-20 knots across much of the lake huron basin
as the pressure gradient again tightens between high pressure
drifting east south of james bay and the remnant low moving into the
mid-atlantic. The flow will then become more southwesterly in
direction heading into Thursday, with frequent gusts around 20 knots
possible across much of the local waters.

Hydrology...

late afternoon evening thunderstorms on Tuesday produced a swath of
heavy rainfall across central and northern washtenaw county, central
wayne county and southwest oakland county. 2 to 4 inches of rain
fell in these locations, with the highest amounts extending from
ypsilanti into canton township. Weak low pressure will linger over
metro detroit and points south this morning. There is a chance for
some locally heavy showers and thunderstorms in this region this
morning. Confidence on additional flooding rains however is low.

There is the potential for the development of an organized
thunderstorm complex(s) thurs afternoon and thurs night across the
area. Given the high atmospheric moisture content, there is a risk
for locally intense rainfall if this convection is to develop as
forecast.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi80 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 67°F1012.2 hPa (+0.5)
PSCM4 47 mi20 min N 11 G 12 68°F 1031.5 hPa (+0.7)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi50 min N 8.9 G 13 67°F 67°F1013.7 hPa63°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi50 min N 9.9 G 12 70°F 1012.7 hPa69°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi50 min 73°F 1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi29 minVar 3 mi72°F66°F82%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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SW755SW4SW4SW5SW6NW3CalmNE4N6N7Calm4CalmN5Calm3
1 day agoE13SE11CalmE3SE7SE46456SW6SW34SW666SW6SW7W54SW7W9
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2 days ago33E3CalmE4E5CalmSE3CalmS4S4S5S4S4S3SW3S4SW4CalmS4S4SW3E84

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.