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LHZ463 Expires:202312110515;;247702 Fzus63 Kdtx 102109 Glflh
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 409 pm est Sun dec 10 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis..Cold thermal trough is centered over the great lakes region today with an expansive frontal system moving towards the atlantic coast. A trailing weak frontal boundary is sliding across lake huron this afternoon. Post front northwest winds and some upper level support will lead to lake effect snow bands across lake huron into tonight. Wind gusts this afternoon through tomorrow will hold mostly below 25 knots though some elevated wave action may bring marginal small craft conditions to the northern portions of the Thumb. A strong low pressure, 29.40 inches, then moves over northern ontario sending another cold front through the great lakes bringing potential for a period of Tuesday morning.
lhz462>464-110515- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 409 pm est Sun dec 10 2023
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Scattered snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet early in the morning. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the evening. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots until early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 110009 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 709 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

AVIATION

A cold front and mid level wave of low pressure support scattered light rain and snow showers across Lower Mi for a few more hours this evening. There is also a component of Great Lakes generated instability adding to borderline VFR/MVFR ceiling which will be the general cloud mode with a stray flurry late tonight and Monday.
There is also a broad area of MVFR stratus over the upper Midwest but no clear signal yet on how aggressively it moves into Lower Mi as high pressure advances eastward. The clouds are a sign that Lake Michigan will remain active regardless of how the upstream cloud pattern evolves under persistent NW flow backing to SW by Monday evening.

For DTW... A mix of light rain and snow flurries remain possible this evening with some breaks in the cloud cover likely late tonight. Disorganized ceiling hovers around the VFR/MVFR threshold through Monday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and Monday.

* High for precip type as rain/melting snow through this evening.
Ptype of snow overnight/Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 429 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

DISCUSSION...

Neutrally tilting shortwave with finer embedded trough features crosses Lower Michigan this evening supporting some light shower activity amidst background lake-effect evapotransport. Low-level wind fields hold a northwesterly vector into the overnight hours before the final packet of CVA exits the state. Adjusted the forecast in favor of sprinkle and/or flurry mentions tonight as temperatures have largely overachieved, but with colder nocturnal air inbound, expect the cloud-bearing saturated layer to settle into the warmer end of the DGZ by 03Z. This supports a transition to isolated flurries for the overnight period. Temperatures drop into the 20s across the forecast area by daybreak.

Heights rebound locally Monday as PV consolidates to the east yielding increasingly stable conditions over the region. The upper level pattern becomes ridged over for approximately 24 hours offering dry and seasonably cool conditions. Forecast soundings indicate deep-layer subsidence by the afternoon and the eventual erosion/scattering of low stratus. Zonal low-level winds back to follow suit in the mid to upper levels during the overnight period as high clouds eventually spill in ahead of the next wave.

Upper low over Manitoba digs into northern Ontario Tuesday shoving an arctic airmass into the northern Great Lakes. The flanking frontal boundary extends well into the Ohio Valley, while the 850 mb thermal gradient suggests a spread in high temperatures Tuesday afternoon from northwest to southeast (upper 30s and lower 40s, respectively). Moisture quality concerns remain as peak PWATs within the pre-frontal ThetaE wedge remain 10-20 percent below climatological normals and soundings appear subsaturated wrt ice on either side of the 2-4 kft AGL layer. Wouldn't be surprised if a few flurries materialize given the low-level FGEN response through the stratocumulus deck, but not worth a mention in this outgoing forecast.

Surface high pressure slides out of the Eastern Plains and repositions over the Ohio Valley Wednesday maintaining column dryness. A thermal ridge spilling out of the Canadian Prairies moderates as it folds into the Midwest Thursday and Friday while 850 mb temps are now projected to hold AOB 5 C. This still translates to higher than normal temperatures, approaching 10F above. A frontal passage Saturday provides an opportunity for precipitation, but the GFS and ECMWF maintain large spatial variance with the next wave.

MARINE...

Cold thermal trough is centered over the Great Lakes Region today with an expansive frontal system moving towards the Atlantic Coast.
A weaker trailing frontal boundary is moving across the central Great Lakes this afternoon with a northwest post frontal wind direction. Cold air and some mid level shortwave support will bring lake effect snow showers for Lake Huron through this evening. The northwest flow will will build waves into the nearshores of the northern Thumb by tomorrow morning. This will bring marginal small craft advisory conditions as wind gust potential will top out around 20 knots. Overall lighter period of winds for the daylight period tomorrow. Southwest winds are then expected to ramp up Monday night through Tuesday morning as the next strong low pressure system moves across northern Ontario and drags a cold front through the region.
The potential for a period of gales will exist Tuesday morning and early afternoon for portions of Lake Huron. Cold air and a tight pressure gradient will maintain unsettled marine conditions into Wednesday with gusts of 25-30 knots common across much of Lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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