Thursday, December12, 2019
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 4:49PM Thursday December 12, 2019 6:30 PM EST (23:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ463 Expires:201912130915;;253582 Fzus63 Kdtx 122049 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 349 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure, 30.00 inches, tracks into northern lake michigan this evening and reaches the straits by Friday morning. A broad region of surface low pressure, averaging 29.70 inches, will then linger over the great lakes Friday into Saturday. A strong low pressure system will track to our east on Saturday night, leading to an increased northwest gradient locally for Sunday. Lhz362-363-462-463-130915- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- 349 pm est Thu dec 12 2019
.gale warning in effect until midnight est tonight...
Tonight..South winds to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow in the evening. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then backing to the northwest early in the afternoon. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of rain and snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of snow. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the evening. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots until early evening...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of snow until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet until early morning.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDTX 122239 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 539 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

AVIATION.

The southeast Michigan airspace will remain immediately downstream of a weak frontal boundary stalled over the lake Michigan corridor through Friday. This will sustain a substantial component of mid- high level cloud cover, but retention of dry low level conditions ensures skies remain clear across the lowest 5-7k ft with no precipitation expected during this time. Stronger south-southwest flow just off the surface will introduce a period of low level wind shear tonight, as winds at the surface settle below 10 knots. Winds generally aob 10 knots prevailing from the south Friday. Some increase in lower level moisture will be possible Friday night as low pressure tracks through the Ohio valley.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft Friday night.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 401 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

DISCUSSION .

Very light precipitation potential early this evening for Bay and Midland Counties:

Tail end of convergence forcing from Clipper system swinging through northern Wisconsin is expected to settle down into northern Bay and Midland Counties this evening. No significant change in model output that suggests deep moisture sub 12 kft for a brief time that may be good for ice nucleation within the cloud layer. Some potential exists for drizzle but surface temperatures will be at or a degree below freezing this evening. Will maintain the inherited slight chance PoP this evening as there is some active warm advection. Confidence is low in development of light precipitation.

Uncertainty pertaining to precipitation potential for the eastern CWA daytime Saturday:

The first questionable aspect of the going forecast surrounds the potential for precipitation to clip the extreme eastern cwa Saturday morning to Saturday midday. The operational ECMWF and EPS shows reasonable consistency and high population of members in support of precipitation, whereas the latest 12.12Z operational runs of deterministic NCEP are completely dry. All models are in strong agreement that anomalous southern positioning of the Polar Jet will result in a anticyclonic wave break over Intermountain West with subsequent negative tilt to deep trough and cyclogenesis event east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas up through the Northeast. Where things differ is with the aggressiveness of the (+) anticyclonically curvature tendency of jet entrance region directly over the Central Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday. This increase in jet forcing sparks due northward moisture transport and allows synoptic scale precipitation to back into portions of the cwa from St Clair county southward along the Rivers. A diagnosis suggests this high end jet development appears to be a combination response from mass convergence of the Northeast low deepening event and the interaction of as many as 3 separate PV anomalies (main wave over AL/GA, loose lead wave energy over western Great Lakes, and strong Potential Vorticity maximum drifting around northern Central Canada west of James Bay. Difficult to pin down explicit likelihood for high jet entrance development given non-linear processes responsible. Instead, like to frame the narrative as one of higher likelihood of precipitation to the east of Metro Detroit during the day on Saturday. Best proximity sounding for low level moisture surge shows plenty of area to the right of freezing isotherm which supports that if precipitation were to occur the daytime Saturday it will be in the form of rain. Temperatures are expected to be above the freezing mark. The forecast temperatures may be too warm if precipitation occurs.

Uncertainty pertaining to minor lake effect snow potential late Saturday night and Sunday:

Uncertainty surrounds the potential for minor snowflake activity Saturday night as differences exist between the deterministic solutions. The main governing factor is to what degree strong midlevel subsidence will build into the state Saturday evening. A stark contrast between the GFS/NAM forecast soundings with the GFS showing high end snow sounding (saturation through 25.0 kft agl thin DGZ centered above modest front signature) and the NAM which shows extreme subsidence inversion. Given timing of the shortwave energy preference at this time favors a drier solution. The going forecast has a chance for snow showers Saturday evening ending by daybreak Sunday.

Contextual discussion for cold air Sunday and Sunday night:

Cold air advection will ensue Saturday evening with the cold air in place for Sunday. Latest information supports -11 to -12C at 850mb which checks out at 1 standard deviation below the mean. Nothing of any significance, highs Sunday will be 5 degrees below mid December normals and near normal lows Sunday night in the lower 20s.

Uncertainty pertaining to winter storm potential impacting Southeast Michigan late Monday and early Tuesday:

Entrance region to 170 knot upper level jet axis will undergo change early next week as entrance region slides east of the Rockies and both secondary Pacific momentum pushes through subgeostrophic region of mean trof and subtropical jet merges into the jet axis over Mexico/Texas. The main forecast question of this package centers on the potential for mid latitude cyclone development and accumulating snow over Southeast Michigan Monday/Tuesday. Stonybrook Ensemble Sensitivity analysis of the 12.00Z GEFS suggests greatest modes of variation are due to the uncertainty (positional and magnitude) of the surface anticyclone over the Great Lakes. The ECMWF has been extremely consistent in being dry with the 12.00Z EPS solutions overwhelmingly dry with just 2/50 solutions suggesting snow accumulations. The GEFS and d(prog)/dt of operational GFS is the opposite with an overwhelming signal for cold deformation snow over the cwa. The CMC sensitivity analsyis strongly supports a slider solution of the low pressure system squeezing northeast through the Tennessee River Valley. Will forgo the GEFS output at this vantage point given undispersion of members shown in the WWE cluster phase space. What is of higher than normal predictability is that if precipitation were to occur, it would fall in the form of snow. The bottom line is the Day 5 (Monday/Tuesday) timeframe remains a period of interest for an accumulating snow event, however, the smart money strongly favors a suppressed southern solution to the mid latitude cyclone, In other words, a dry solution is preferred for Southeast Michigan.

MARINE .

A southerly gradient remains tightened as low pressure tracks to northern Lake Michigan this evening and over the Straights by Friday morning. Mid-level warm advection and a strengthening low-level inversion will keep gusts limited to low-end gales across southern and central Lake Huron despite the 50+ kt low-level jet moving in. A Gale Warning remains in effect through tonight for much of the open waters, while a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of the Lake Huron nearshore waters for higher wave activity. Snow across northern Lake Huron will transition to a mix of rain and snow and eventually all rain tonight as warmer air moves in. Winds gradually weaken late tonight into early Friday as the gradient slackens. Broad troughing over the region on Saturday then leads to light winds and a brief period of favorable marine conditions, but northwest wind picks up on Saturday night into Sunday as a strong low pressure system moves to our east.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LHZ362-363-462-463.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 47 mi31 min S 22 G 28 32°F 1041.3 hPa (-2.4)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi43 min S 19 G 22 32°F 33°F1022.3 hPa24°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi49 min S 15 G 23 33°F 1024.1 hPa26°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi49 min 34°F 1024.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last
24hr
W10
G14
W5
G8
W10
G13
W6
G13
W7
G10
W6
G10
W6
G9
W5
S4
S6
S7
S6
G9
SW7
G10
S6
S9
S10
S9
S11
G16
S11
G15
S15
G21
S18
G23
S19
G24
S19
S18
G22
1 day
ago
SW5
SW6
G9
W11
G16
W8
G14
W12
G17
W14
G21
SW8
G13
SW7
G11
SW8
G11
SW10
G17
SW11
G19
SW10
G14
SW12
G19
SW7
G15
SW11
G18
W12
G17
W14
G19
W17
G22
W12
G21
W16
G23
W10
G20
W10
G20
W10
G16
W6
G11
2 days
ago
SW9
G14
SW8
G12
SW12
G15
SW12
G19
W17
G25
W15
G26
W7
G21
W12
G19
W9
G19
NW9
G14
NW10
G17
NW10
G16
NW11
G19
NW9
G18
NW11
G16
NW9
G13
NW8
G12
NW7
G11
NW7
G10
NW7
G11
NW9
G12
NW10
G13
NW4
G7
SW4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi2.7 hrsSSE 10 G 22 mi30°F19°F66%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.