Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:16PM Friday August 23, 2019 2:23 AM EDT (06:23 UTC) Moonrise 11:30PMMoonset 1:31PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201908230815;;060767 Fzus63 Kdtx 230148 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 948 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A broad canadian high will become centered over upper michigan on Friday while strengthening to 30.30 inches. The expansive high pressure system will move across eastern ontario on Saturday before becoming centered over the canadian maritimes by the end of the weekend. Lhz462>464-230815- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 948 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A chance of waterspouts early in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the evening.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots until early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230354
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1154 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Aviation
Mainly clear skies are expected into Friday morning with broken
diurnal cumulus then developing for a time by midday. Building
surface high pressure will bring a quick dissipation to this diurnal
component by evening. Winds will remain north northeast with speeds
to about 10 knots in best mixing again by midday Friday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* medium for cigs AOB 5kft for a period of time Friday afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 335 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
discussion...

a much cooler and drier post frontal airmass is settling into the
central great lakes today. The 60s dewpoints across the southeast
michigan yesterday have been pushed south by the canadian high
pressure leaving upper 40s and 50s dewpoints. This cooler airmass is
also characterized by a drop in 850 mb temperatures to the 7 to 10 c
range. This is resulting in high temperatures largely in the low to
mid 70 range for today with a fair amount of sunshine. The clouds
associated with the frontal boundary to the south have mostly pushed
east of michigan making way for diurnal cumulus field now the state.

Mostly dry northerly flow will keep conditions quiet through the
remainder of today. Loss of daytime heating will bring clearing
skies into tonight resulting in good radiational cooling. This will
bring overnight low temperatures down into the 50s with upper 40s
achievable across the thumb.

Southeast michigan will reside on the southern side of the surface
high as an upper trough axis departs to the east ushering in
shortwave energy from the north. With cooler air moving over the
relatively warmer lakes, over-lake instability will bring a low end
chance for light showers mainly affecting the thumb region during
the day tomorrow as the shortwave moves through. The thermal trough
remains over the great lakes region tomorrow and Saturday keeping
high temperatures on the cool side of normal. Upper 60s to low 70s
across parts of the thumb and mostly 70s for the remaining inland
areas with overnight lows mostly in the 50s. Shortwave ridging with
the surface high centered across the north central great lakes and
southern ontario will keep the mostly dry conditions to start to the
weekend.

Western periphery of the surface high pressure system and a
weakening omega blocking pattern in the mid-levels will bring
continued dry conditions to end the weekend. Return flow from the
departing high pressure will continue to reinforce easterly flow
through Sunday morning, veering southeast throughout the day which
will increase temperatures to near-normal values with highs in the
upper-70s to lower-80s.

Upper-level trough will then amplify across the northern plains as
high pressure settles over the new england area on Monday which will
increase the pressure gradient across the midwest into the great
lakes. Strengthening LLJ warm front amplification over the ohio
valley will bring a warm-up and increase in humidity to SE mi Monday
into Wednesday with highs in the 80s and dewpoints increasing from
the 50s into the 60s and potentially lower 70s across the metro
area. Increase in moisture will also bring rain and thunderstorm
chances early next week, especially late Monday into Tuesday, as
moisture transport is maximized across SE mi during this time. A
secondary chance for rain and thunderstorms will again be possible
late Tuesday into Wednesday as a stacked low slowly travels east
from manitoba across ontario, dragging a cold front behind it which
will sweep across michigan. Last, mechanical mixing with stronger
low level winds and the increasing pressure gradient will bring
gusty conditions Monday and Tuesday, and again Thursday (tied to
caa).

Marine...

canadian high pressure will expand into the northern great lakes
through the end of the week before departing to eastern canada over
the weekend. This system will influence the region right through the
end of the weekend. Winds and waves will gradually decrease this
evening and into tonight as the gradient slowly relaxes. Light to
modest northerly winds will however persist across the the lakes
through the day Friday. Persistent cold air advection across the
lakes will promote enough over lake instability to support a chance
for waterspouts through Friday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi84 min NNW 12 G 16 66°F 71°F2 ft1018.1 hPa (+0.7)
PSCM4 47 mi24 min WNW 5.1 G 8 59°F 1037.3 hPa (+1.1)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi54 min NW 4.1 G 12 62°F 72°F1019.3 hPa51°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi54 min NNW 8 G 9.9 60°F 1018.6 hPa49°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi54 min 61°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi4.5 hrsVar 5 mi65°F51°F61%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------6NW754CalmN7N76335
1 day ago----------------W4W3--Calm6NW8SW9W8
G16
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G15
W6NW4SW9N14------
2 days agoS5------S5----SW4W3SW5SW444N4NE5E8E86SE8--CalmNW3Calm--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.