Tuesday, July14, 2020
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:04PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 5:27 PM EDT (21:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:41AMMoonset 2:27PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ463 Expires:202007150815;;847740 Fzus63 Kdtx 141953 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 353 Pm Edt Tue Jul 14 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Weak and broad high pressure, averaging 30.00 inches, will continue building across the central great lakes through midweek. A cold front will then cross the region Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Lhz462>464-150815- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 353 pm edt Tue jul 14 2020
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of early in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDTX 141952 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 352 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

DISCUSSION.

A midlevel shortwave ridge crests overhead this evening with the surface high pressure center drifting eastward into the eastern Great Lakes. This maintains quiet conditions into tonight with a dry southeast flow over Southeast Michigan. Looking at increasing cloud cover tonight, especially north of M-59, as high debris cloud from today's convection over Wisconsin moves in. Low temps more mild tonight in the 60s.

The upstream convection is tied to an area of height falls/PVA and upper divergence moving over a frontal zone currently draped across the northern Mississippi Valley. This parent forcing mostly strips away into northern Ontario tonight with the frontal zone becoming nearly stationary across the northern Great Lakes as flow orients more parallel to it. This brings showers and some storms across northern lower Michigan on Wednesday but SE Michigan holds on to the ridge and stays dry. The upward temperature and humidity trend continues tomorrow as a rising thickness field and low-level south to southwesterly temperature advection send highs into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. South wind ahead of the front increases to 10 to 15 mph during the day.

Shortwave energy emanating from convection over the Plains today and Wednesday tracks east and interacts with the longwave trough which swings it northeastward into the Great Lakes late Wednesday night. This feature stands the best chance to budge the front and provide forcing for an area of showers and a few storms overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. A slower shortwave has been noted in the past few model cycles and is supported by local probabilistic guidance which gives at least a chance of showers/storms continuing into Thursday afternoon. Severe potential will be limited by unfavorable overnight/early-day timing and meager instability, but heavy rainfall continues to be a possibility.

With moisture pooling ahead of the front, still looking at potential for PWATs to rise to near 2 inches which lends confidence to efficient rainfall processes. Model guidance struggles on the strength/position/orientation of the wave (and will likely continue to do so given its convective origin), but potential is certainly there for a strong LLJ/moisture feed and a defined deformation axis if a stronger wave does develop, both of which would enhance rainfall production. The ensemble solution space remains broad with varying outcomes, including a few hi-res solutions and the 12z NAM which depict a swath of 1 to 2"+ somewhere across lower Michigan. Still some moving parts to resolve in the upstream convective evolution before leaning more toward these solutions, but their existence at least highlights them as a higher end possibility. For now, will keep a broad-brushed 0.25 to 0.50" across the CWA with refinements likely in the next few forecast cycles.

The front pushes through the Great Lakes on Thursday with cloud cover and potential for continued on and off precip bringing highs down a couple degrees compared to Wednesday. Midlevel ridging then builds over the southern two-thirds of the CONUS by Friday which forces the Great Lakes trough back northward, opening the door for another stretch of warm weather. A plume of hot and humid air is progged to advect into the region as zonal flow sets up along the US/Canada border with highs in the 90s and humid conditions likely for the weekend. A few waves in this flow will bring a chance for scattered showers and storms each day from Saturday onward.

MARINE.

Weak and broad high pressure will continue to build across the region for the early week period resulting in dry conditions through at least early Wednesday. Northerly flow will subside overnight tonight before flow increases slightly from the southeast on Tuesday. The next chance for unsettled weather is expected Wednesday night as a low pressure system moves in from the west.

HYDROLOGY.

Heavy rain becomes a possibility from late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a shortwave lifts northeastward across Southeast Michigan. While instability will be limited, increasing deep-layer moisture and mesoscale forcing may be able to produce heavy rainfall rates in scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Potential exists for some areas to receive over 1 inch of rain, but these amounts are not likely to be widespread. At this time, most areas should see closer to 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Flooding concerns appear to be minimal with the most likely scenario being localized ponding of water in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 143 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

AVIATION .

Broad high pressure across the central Great Lakes will ensure that VFR conditions and dry weather remain in place across the airspace through the TAF period. Diurnal cu around 5-6 kft this afternoon will occasionally be bkn at times, otherwise the only cloud of note will be passing convective debris cirrus from upper Midwest convection. Remnant cirrus should linger through much of the remainder of the TAF period. Light S/SW wind around 5 knots will trend light and variable overnight reemerging out of the SW again Wednesday at 5-10 knots.

For DTW . Only concern this period will be potential for brief periods of ceilings dipping into the 5 kft range through about 22z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . IRL HYDROLOGY . TF AVIATION . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi87 min WNW 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 1018.2 hPa (-0.4)
PSCM4 47 mi27 min E 6 G 7 74°F 1036.6 hPa (-0.3)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi99 min 65°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last
24hr
N9
N7
NW3
N5
E2
SW3
SW4
SW4
SW4
W5
W4
G7
W3
W4
W5
W4
SE2
E3
E6
E5
SE6
SE10
SE11
SE10
SE9
1 day
ago
N14
N10
G13
N8
N10
N12
N17
N13
G17
N10
G16
NW5
G16
N14
G17
NW7
G16
NW5
G8
NW6
W5
G8
NW6
G9
N10
N13
N11
N15
N12
G15
NE9
NE9
NE11
N13
2 days
ago
N7
N8
N7
N4
N9
N11
G14
N8
G11
NW4
G7
NW4
W3
NW1
NW5
G9
NW6
NW5
NW7
NW6
G9
NW5
G9
NW6
G9
N9
N12
G15
N10
N11
N15
N14
G17

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi36 minESE 11 mi73°F62°F69%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hrNW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW5SW6SW5SW5SW4SW5SW4SW3E3E4E7E8E9E12SE14E12SE11
1 day ago4N4Calm4N73CalmNW6N33445NW55Calm--3--43N3N74
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmCalmN8CalmCalm344NW9W7NW9
G18
NW8
G17
NW8NW7NW6NW7----N9N7N7N9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.