Wednesday, February19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:00PM Wednesday February 19, 2020 7:37 AM EST (12:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:04AMMoonset 2:07PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 343 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2020
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ463 Expires:202002192115;;763971 FZUS63 KDTX 190843 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 343 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...An arctic front will soon clear to the southeast keeping the region within a dry and cold arctic airmass. 30.90 inHg high pressure will drop down from the Dakotas and expand southeastward over the next couple of days. The center of the high will reach the the mid Mississippi Valley then usher in warmer air. Strong pressure gradient winds create gusty conditions Friday afternoon/evening. LHZ463-464-192115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 191210 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 710 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

AVIATION.

A few streamers of borderline VFR/MVFR clouds and a flurries leading up to sunrise are associated with a front bringing arctic air into the region. Some expansion of the clouds is possible toward mbS while conditions remain scattered across the rest of the region during the day. Northwest wind gusting near 25 knots might be the most notable aspect of aviation conditions but these diminish below 20 knots for the afternoon. Strong high pressure building from the northern Plains into the Midwest ensures dry weather today through tonight with just some thickening high clouds tonight through sunrise Thursday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

DISCUSSION .

Quiet weather expected today through Saturday as a strong and expansive arctic high pressure system takes hold of the region. It will be centered over the northern Plains this morning and then will slowly drift southeastward through the end of the week eventually reaching TN/KY by Friday.

An arctic front pushed south through lower MI overnight helping to pull some moisture off the western Lakes through southern MI. An isolated ob or two showed some snow but generally speaking it resulted in enhanced cloud cover. The front did mark the beginning of a mid week cool down as a positively tilted thermal trough settles over the state. 850mb will drop into the negative teens today, down from the 0C to -5C we had on Tuesday. Highs today will be limited to the upper 20s for most locations. There is an outside shot at some flurries this afternoon as cold northwest flow sparks some lake enhanced clouds, and possibly snow showers over the west part of the state. The thinking is that the high is already becoming well established over the area with surface pressure around 1028mb and a strong subsidence inversion around 3kft. This shallow boundary layer doesn't allow for much moisture to work all the way east into the area through the dry airmass, especially considering northwesterly flow making a longer trek for the moisture. Will keep the forecast dry at this point and allow the day shift to add flurries where necessary if satellite signature warrants it.

A second arctic front will sweep down through the region late tonight into Thursday. The core of the cold air, near -20C, will glance the region allowing for temps to bottom out around 10F tonight. There will again be an outside chance of some flurries as the flow backs a bit more westerly along the front but may also just be more of a virga scenario as a pocket of mid level moisture passes overhead seeding the drier air below. Temps will remain in the 20s once again with the thermal trough still overhead.

As the high drifts more to our south on Friday, surface flow will become more southwesterly. This while the mid level ridge folds over into the region resulting in westerly flow aloft. Both will result in a warming airmass boosting high temps back into the mid 30s. The pattern will hold through Saturday allowing further moderation to the airmass with highs increasing into the 40s for both Saturday and Sunday. The next chance of precipitation won't come until Sunday night as a southern stream storm is forecast to pass to our south while the northern periphery of the precip shield lifts into southern MI.

MARINE .

High pressure over North Dakota will expand southeastward bringing dry conditions and low-impact waves today. Cold northwest flow behind a passing arctic front will maintain a few more hours of freezing spray near the central Lake Huron international border with a few lingering light snow showers. Winds will fluctuate between westerly and northwesterly in the 10-15 knot range over the next few days. Air temperatures remain chilly through the remainder of the work week as the arctic airmass remains positioned over the Great Lakes. By Friday afternoon, the high will reach the mid Mississippi Valley causing local flow to back to the southwest, transitioning the region to a warm advection regime. A stronger gradient will develop as a low pivots through Hudson Bay, generating strong winds Friday afternoon/evening with favorable 850 mb LLJ dyanmics allowing for 30-35 knot surface gusts during the evening/overnight period.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 47 mi38 min WNW 6 G 13 20°F 1047.1 hPa (+3.8)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi56 min W 7 G 13 21°F 32°F1028 hPa11°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi56 min NNW 14 G 21 22°F 1028 hPa9°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi56 min 24°F 1028.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE6
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SW8
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NW5
G9
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G16
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G13
N10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi47 minWNW 14 G 26 mi23°F10°F60%1028.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE6NE5E7SE8SE15SE13SE16SE15
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SE12SE9SE12SE9SE11SE10SE13SE15
G23
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G24
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G24
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G29
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2 days agoSW7SW6W7W8W9W8W6
G14
W6W8
G15
W7NE12NE13NE12N11N10N12N8NW9N9
G14
NW7N7N4N8N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.