Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 6:39PM Thursday October 17, 2019 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 10:19AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201910172015;;845863 Fzus63 Kdtx 171407 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 1007 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A firm northwest wind will remain across the central great lakes today, as the area remains within the influence of strong low pressure, 29.40 inches, now centered over new england. Winds will ease tonight as high pressure averaging 30.00 inches builds across the great lakes. High pressure is expected to center over the great lakes by Friday morning, producing a brief period of lighter winds to finish the week. Lhz462>464-172015- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 1007 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
.gale warning in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 8 to 12 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet early in the morning. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon.
Friday night..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. A chance of showers until early evening. Rain showers likely in the late evening and early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 171704
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
104 pm edt Thu oct 17 2019

Aviation
Cold northwest flow (wind gusts 20-25 knots) this afternoon will
maintain lowVFR clouds into the evening. Diminishing winds and
surface high pressure arriving overnight is expected to lead to
clear skies. Mostly clear skies should persist tomorrow, but a brief
period of MVFR CIGS is possible in the late morning around noon time
as surface heating takes place. Winds look to be light and variable
through the day.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5000 feet into the evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 347 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
discussion...

the surface pressure pattern featuring a low over southern ontario
Wednesday, has shifted eastward as a new area of height falls over
the east coast has become the dominate low with just remnant
troughing lingering over the eastern great lakes. With the weakening
surface trough remains upper level cyclonic flow and a residual cold
pool. This will all change today as amplified upper level ridge and
surface high slide east over the region. The incoming drier airmass
and warm air advection will act to shut off any remaining lake
effect showers this morning although a sharpening subsidence
inversion will lead to a cloudy day as it traps low level moisture
which will take most of the day to scour out.

Surface ridge axis will reach SE mi Friday morning which will clear
skies out overnight and allow winds to go light or even calm. This
could lead to some frost Friday morning as temperatures make a run
at the freezing mark. Earlier arrival of the ridge could allow some
typically colder spots to dip into the upper 20s but at this time
will keep around freezing with patchy frost mention.

High pressure will carry us through most of Saturday with MAX temps
rising back into the 60s with southwesterly flow returning. The next
trough is already taking shape over the west coast which will
traverse the northern plains before reaching the the great lakes
Saturday night pulling a cold front through the region. A narrow
ribbon of moisture advection ahead of the front will present an
opportunity for a period of showers but models are showing a
scattered coverage at best as the low lifting toward hudson bay
pulls the best forcing northward as well. Will keep a chance pop
for Saturday night for now.

Shortwave ridging builds back into the region Sunday into Monday
before the next stronger trough digs across the central plains. This
stronger, more dynamic system looks to have a few shortwaves
rotating around it and potentially up through lower mi with a strong
cold front on Tuesday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the front
with 850mb temps around 12c will lead to temps into the mid upper
60s Sunday and Monday. The front then ushers in colder air with 850mb
temps near 0c keeping highs on Tuesday in the 50s.

Marine...

a strong cold northwest flow will maintain unsettled marine
conditions across the area through the daylight period. Gusts will
continue to reach gale force over central southern sections of lake
huron particularly during the first half of the day. This will
maintain high wave action, with wave heights in excess of 12 ft at
times. Small craft conditions persist over all nearshore waters with
gusts in excess of 25 knots today. The eastward exit of this system
will bring improving conditions Thursday night, with modest winds
and waves lasting through Friday as high pressure enters the region.

A period of moderate southerly winds then develops Saturday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 4 am edt Friday for miz049.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz362-363-462>464.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz422.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for lhz421-441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez444.

Aviation... ..Sf
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi92 min WNW 25 G 31 48°F 57°F11 ft1009.1 hPa (+1.1)
PSCM4 47 mi32 min NW 12 G 22 44°F 1028.8 hPa (+0.7)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi44 min NW 14 G 20 44°F 46°F1011.1 hPa37°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi50 min NNW 17 G 26 45°F 1010.8 hPa34°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi50 min 46°F 1010.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi41 minNW 18 G 28 miBreezy45°F36°F71%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW55NW18
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1 day agoSE16SE10SE11SE8S6SE6SE16SE19
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4SW43W9W7W9
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W8W4W5SW8SW4SW6
2 days agoW8
G17
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W8
G18
W86
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SW4CalmSW4SW43SW4SW5SW5SW4SW4SW5SW4SW4SW4CalmS4S7S65

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.