Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cousins Island, ME

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:56 PM EDT (17:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 6:42AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1114 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1114 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A cold front will stall over southern new england today as high pressure builds in from the north. High pressure will slide off to the east this afternoon. A warm front will lift northeast through the region Friday into Saturday morning. A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday and will slowly drop south through Sunday and Sunday night with an additional frontal passage on its heels. High pressure will gradually build in from the west Monday through Tuesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cousins Island, ME
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location: 43.76, -70.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 181546 cca
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1146 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure moves across northern maine today. A warm front
will bring a hot and humid air mass into new england tonight
into Friday. The heat will be most intense on Saturday. A cold
front moves in Saturday night into Sunday with showers and
thunderstorms possible as the front gradually pushes the hot and
humid air mass away. Expect more comfortable temperatures and
humidity next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1100 am update...

low level moisture over southern new hampshire is mixing out as
high pressure builds south from canada late this morning.

Onshore flow will continue to feed low level moisture into this
area so looking for variable cloudiness through the afternoon
across southern new hampshire. Remainder of the forecast area
will see mostly sunny skies. Have tweaked temp TD sky grids
based on latest obs and Sat pics but no major changes planned to
current forecast.

Prev disc...

at 3am a weak front is draped across the southern portion of
the region. This boundary is most noticeable in the moisture
gradient with aug and northwards reporting dewpoints at 60 and
below and ash and mht still solidly in the soup at 70f. That
gradient has the expected effect on surface conditions with
patchy fog reported at several locations in southern new
hampshire. Expect the front to continue to sag southwards
through the day today, with the result being a cooler and less
humid day than most of the week. Highs will actually be warmest
in the north where clear skies will allow it to warm to around
80. Across southern nh expect it to remain in the 70s due to
increased cloud cover. A few showers are possible along the ma
border. The uncertainty in the forecast today all rests in how
far front the south will sag which will determine the cloud
cover, precip potential and temps along the southern portion of
the cwa. Thus have higher confidence in the forecast through the
north.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
The break from humidity will be short lived as the front and
moisture surges back northwards on Friday. With 850mb temps climbing
to near 20c expect highs in the 90s to be easily achievable for the
southern portion of the area with the 80s reaching the canadian
border. The cool outlier in our area will be the midcoast, as
is typical on these south flow events. While the gulf of maine
is seasonably warm, the flow over 65 degree water will keep
temps in the 70s through the midcoast. The uncertainty in the
forecast for Friday is in the timing of the front lifting
northwards and thus how soon the higher dewpoints are able to
arrive. With highs in the low 90s the heat index will approach
the 95f heat advisory threshold. Overall expect dewpoints in
the low 70s to reach the region. If they are able to do so by
the time of peak heating as some meso models suggest, that will
push heat index to near 100f. A more modest dewpoint in the
upper 60s would keep it closer to the 95f cut off. Have kept the
dewpoints a bit more modest as the northwards surge seems a bit
aggressive, although much will depend on how far south the
front sags today. The current forecast thus puts us right on the
cusp of advisory across eastern hillsborough and interior
rockingham counties. With the uncertainty have opted not to
issue any heat advisory for Friday with this package and will
let the next shift look into the timing more closely. With the
heat and humidity increasing and holding through the weekend
expect Saturday to be the hottest day and an excessive heat
watch has been issued (see details below), and thus have wrapped
the discussion of Friday potential into the Saturday excessive
heat watch for now.

While the heat is the main story on Friday it's not the only
one. A front will approach from the northwest touching off
thunderstorms through the mountains along the canadian border.

Upper level wind speeds are high enough to put a descent shear,
around 35-40kts into our northern area. This leaves us again at
the mercy of the northward surge in dewpoints to determine the
afternoon surface based cape. While warm moist airmass and shear
is a good start for convective potential warming at 500mb will
limit cape. Overall feel some scattered thunderstorms are likely
but am hesitant to bite onto any severe potential at this point.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Heat will remain the main concern through the weekend, with
Saturday looking to be the hottest and most humid day. An
excessive heat watch has been issued for hillsborough and
rockingham counties in nh for Saturday where heat index values
will reach 105f or better. We did this because this will be the
most dangerous day and we wanted to get the word out. Sunday
looks less warm, but will still likely warrant a heat advisory
for southern portions of the forecast area.

Saturday morning a warm front will be crossing the area. Dense
fog is likely along the coast and offshore, with patchy fog
inland. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms across
the mountains as a cold front approaches from canada. This
slight chance of thunderstorms will include the entire forecast
area later in the day as the cold front heads south. A few
strong storms are possible along the front and where instability
is best over southern nh later in the afternoon and evening and
possibly into Sunday morning. The main hazards would be heavy
downpours leading to flash flooding and gusty winds.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s along the canadian border
to the upper 90s over southern nh and southwest maine. Concord
nh and portland me will both likely break their high temperature
records Saturday. Please see climate section below.

Have gone with the lower side of the envelope as far as dew
points, which may entrain drier air from aloft. Holding dew
points in the lower 70s seems reasonable and projects heat
indices of less than 110f. Another concern is the possibility of
more cloud cover than is currently forecast, if the approaching
cold front moves in quicker. This would lower temperatures and
is another reason for keeping head index values in the moderate
range.

Sunday temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, with
dew points over the mountains having dropped into the upper 50s
to lower 60s, and in the upper 60s lower 70s still for the
coastal plain. This will make for another sticky day for the
southern half of the region. Heat indices may approach 100
degrees f in hillsborough and rockingham once again.

Following a secondary cold frontal passage on Monday,
temperatures will return to more comfortable levels with mid
70s to mid 80s Monday through next Thursday.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
Short term... Some scattered fog and low stratus will continue
through day break across the southern portion of the CWA with
vfr and clear skies elsewhere. Clouds and possible showers will
linger through morning in the south before a front lifts back
northwards through the area allowing heat and humidity to build
in for Friday into the weekend.

Long term... Expecting some dense coastal fog very early Saturday
morning, with patchy fog farther inland as a warm front
traverses the area. This will bring coastal terminals down to
lifr from about 06-12z. Should see mostlyVFR conditions for the
remainder of the day, though there's a chance of thunderstorms
each afternoon mainly in northern areas. A cold front moves into
the area on Sunday with more showers and thunderstorms
possible. These could linger into Monday until the front finally
pushes through.

Marine
Short term... A front sags south of the waters today, as it does
a few wind gusts to 25kts are possible early this morning,
especially near isles of shoals. Conditions will quickly calm
through the middle of the day. The front will lift back
northwards tomorrow with increasing heat and humidity through
the weekend.

Long term... Flow shifts to the west behind the warm front on
Saturday. Expect dense fog over the waters Saturday morning due
to the warm front. A cold front drops in from the north Sunday
into Monday and slowly crosses the gulf of maine through Monday.

Despite all of these features, the pressure gradient will be
rather light and keep winds at or below advisory levels.

Climate
High temperatures this weekend will be hot but are currently
forecast to stay below record levels at concord and portland. The
record highs are as follows:
jul 19
concord: 98 in 1977
portland: 95 in 2013
july 20
concord: 101 in 1977
portland: 96 in 1949

Equipment
The concord, nh ASOS remains out of service. At this time a
return to service date is unknown. During the outage, tafs will
continue to be issued for concord without amendments scheduled.

Climate data for concord will also be affected, although backup
sources may be used to fill in data after the fact.

The sugarloaf nwr transmitter is off the air until further
notice. This will be an extended outage as the tower, which was
severely damaged in a winter storm, is rebuilt.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for nhz012-013-015.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 8 mi56 min 69°F 60°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 16 mi66 min E 3.9 G 3.9 65°F 64°F1 ft1015.7 hPa (-0.8)56°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 35 mi56 min E 7 73°F 54°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 37 mi56 min ESE 9.9 G 12 67°F 59°F1016.5 hPa (-0.7)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 42 mi112 min NNE 9.7 G 12 64°F 64°F3 ft1016.4 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 43 mi112 min NE 5.8 G 5.8 63°F 60°F1 ft1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME11 mi65 minE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F55°F54%1016.2 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME21 mi60 minNNE 810.00 miFair74°F57°F57%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W8SW8W6W7W6SW5S9S3CalmCalmN4CalmN9NE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Prince Point, Maine
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Prince Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:36 AM EDT     10.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     9.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1010.19.17.14.52.10.5-0.10.52.14.46.68.298.77.35.33.11.611.535.37.5

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:10 PM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:31 PM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.90.90.80.60.1-0.6-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.10.40.80.80.80.80.4-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.