Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cousins Island, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:56PM Thursday October 17, 2019 1:38 PM EDT (17:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:18PMMoonset 10:31AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1116 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
.gale warning in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ100 1116 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Strong low pressure will meander across northern new england today. Another round of strong winds are possible in the wake of the departing low later today into Friday. High pressure builds in from the west for the weekend. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cousins Island, ME
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location: 43.76, -70.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 171349
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
949 am edt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis
A coastal storm will gradually weaken and drift east by later
today. Lingering showers are most likely in the mountains, with
gusty westerly winds developing across southern new hampshire
during the afternoon. As the storm slowly moves away Friday high
pressure will build in to replace it and bring fair weather
through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
945 am... At 13z a 973 millibar low was vicinity of klci
laconia with an occluded front extending eastward through the
maine mid coast region. Arrival of the dry slot brought heavier
precipitation to an end earlier this morning. However... Bands
of showers will continue to pivot around the low today as it
meanders eastward to vicinity of the maine mid coast by 00z per
latest href guidance. Strong winds have dropped off with the low
center overhead and all wind headlines have been dropped. On
the waters... Gale all marine zones except for an SCA on casco
bay. The tidal surge remains over 2 ft and seas were near 17 ft
in swell. So splash-over and some beach erosion is likely as we
approach the 2 pm high tide.

Prev disc...

update... I have trimmed headlines further as low pressure is
reaching peak intensity around 973 mb this hour. As the low
occludes and conveyor belts migrate n... The wind threat will
rapidly diminish across the forecast area. The midcoast may see
a few gusts near advisory criteria for the next few hours... So i
have continued a wind advisory there. Otherwise winds are
unlikely to increase back to advisory level elsewhere as low
begins to fill overhead.

Previous discussion... A major coastal storm has deepened
somewhere in the vicinity of 975 mb over interior SRN new
england this morning... And will likely reach peak intensity
shortly. 3 hour pressure falls continue to impress at around 14
mb. Forecast remains on track with the system moving into sern
nh and it occludes.

Dry slot is quickly approaching from the s. Heavy rain continues
to transition nwd just ahead of this dry slot. We are quickly
heading towards the response phase with the bulk of the rain
having fallen across SRN parts of the forecast area.

The other major concern continues to be wind. The LLJ is lifting
across the area now... As seen on kgyx velocity products. Dry
slot is allowing for some convective elements to form on its
leading edge... Which has been bringing the strongest wind gusts
of the event for much of the area to our s. Bos recently had a
70 mph wind gusts just on the leading edge of the dry slot. So i
have expanded the high wind warning for interior sern nh and
interior york co me where the warm sector is most likely to
reach inland and allow for the stronger gusts. Otherwise the
forecast remains much the same as the previous update.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Occluded system will meander across the forecast area
tonight... Which will actually provide relatively benign wx
locally. Strongest winds will be around the periphery of the low
center... So overall winds will be much more calm. CAA across sw
parts of the forecast area may allow winds to continue to be
gusty for those zones however.

Otherwise precip will become more showery in nature as strongest
forcing moves out of the area. Plenty of upslope flow along w
facing slopes will keep likely pop going in the higher terrain
thru fri. As the column cools that should allow snow levels to
fall below the higher summits... And a light accumulation is
possible by Fri morning.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Overview: nor'easter exits into the maritimes to end the week
with high pressure building in for the weekend making for clear
skies and cool nights. The progressive upper level pattern
continues next week with the next trough pushing a cold front
through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Friday: the low will be well east over northern new brunswick by
Friday morning keeping maine and new hampshire in nwly flow. Expect
upslope showers along the canadian border. Stability looks marginal
and while most showers should stay upwind of the crest could see a
few drifting southwards over the mountains midday on Friday and
have increased pop slightly to reflect this.

Saturday and Sunday: high crests over the region during the weekend.

This will create favorable conditions for overnight radiational
cooling have lowered temperatures trending towards the statistical
guidance and favoring the usual cold spots.

Next week: a low will pass south of us on Monday with a few high
clouds making it into southern nh. By Tuesday another large cyclone
will move through the great lakes and southern ontario dragging a
cold front across most of the eastern conus. For our area that will
mean increasing clouds overnight and then rain moving in on
Wednesday as the front crosses. ECMWF now starting to hint at a
secondary low formation along the front as it moves out over the
atlantic which could further enhance precipitation into our region.

Have kept fairly high pop values as I am confident in the system
traversing the region during the Tuesday time frame even with many
details to be worked out.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Short term... Widespread ifr conditions continue in +ra though
dry slot is rapidly approaching from the s. This will bring an
end to the heavy precip... But strongest wind gusts are just
beginning. A several hour period is expected with wind gusts
approaching 50 kt from psm to pwm and rkd. Under the low center
widespread MVFR conditions will linger along with local ifr in
lower CIGS or shra into the afternoon today. MVFR conditions
linger in the mtns into Fri morning.

Long term... Upslope showers will lead to MVFR conditions
remaining in the northern portion of the area on Friday. High
pressure will build in for the weekend with fairly calm
conditions andVFR. Another system will cross the region on
Tuesday with rain and ifr likely.

Marine
Short term... As low pressure begins to fill winds are quickly
diminishing over the waters. Storm warnings continue for the
northern coastal waters... With gales hoisted S to the merrimack
river for wly flow that develops later today. SCA conditions
will exist in casco bay. Winds and seas will slowly diminish
into fri.

Long term... Winds and waves will be subsiding through the day
on Friday as the nor'easter moves out. High pressure builds in
for the weekend. Another front crosses the region early next
week with gusts to near gale force possible.

Tides coastal flooding
High tide was at 2:45am with a 1.8 ft storm surge, which is a
full hour after astronomical high tide!
a small portion of the residual storm surge will linger today.

This will combine with leftover long period swells to produce
minor splash-over along coastal york and coastal rockingham
counties near the time of high tide early this afternoon.

Therefore a coastal flood statement has been issued.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz153.

Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for anz150>152-154.

Es


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 8 mi57 min 52°F 55°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 16 mi49 min SSW 23 G 31 52°F 54°F16 ft978 hPa (+1.9)43°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 35 mi99 min SSW 17 53°F 44°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 37 mi51 min SW 20 G 27 56°F978.7 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 42 mi95 min SW 27 G 35 52°F 56°F13 ft977.6 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 43 mi95 min S 23 G 29 52°F 53°F16 ft978.9 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME11 mi48 minS 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast52°F41°F66%978.5 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME21 mi43 minSSE 89.00 miLight Rain49°F46°F90%979.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN5CalmCalmS7S8S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmW3W4CalmCalmCalmE7S9S10
2 days agoS9S5S8SE9SE7S3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW6CalmNW3CalmCalmN4NW4NW6NW7NW10NW7NW5N7

Tide / Current Tables for Prince Point, Maine
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Prince Point
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Thu -- 01:42 AM EDT     9.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:49 PM EDT     9.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.68.89.18.36.74.52.51.111.93.65.889.49.89.17.55.22.810.20.61.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:27 AM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:38 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:44 PM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:04 PM EDT     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.50.90.90.70.50.2-0.3-0.7-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.50.910.80.50.3-0.1-0.7-1-0.8-0.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.