Sunrise 5:08 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 5:22 PM   Moonset 3:32 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

ANZ153 Casco Bay- 315 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the evening. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ100 315 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure will remain along the east coast through Wednesday a cold front then approaches and passes through on Thursday bring the chance for showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure builds in from the north into the the weekend.

FXUS61 KGYX 201947 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 347 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure along the East Coast will bring a warming trend through mid week. Disturbances tracking across southeast Canada will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday night and crosses Thursday for more widespread showers and storms. Cooler and drier air moves in behind the front with mostly dry conditions going into the weekend as high pressure builds in from Canada.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
Impacts: *No significant weather impacts expected

Northern zones that cleared out early this morning warmed up into the upper 70s today and therefore now have developed a nice cumulus field. It is not out of the realm of possibility for one of these to produce a very brief and very light shower this afternoon as the 500 mb ridge begins to breakdown and flow becomes more zonal, but it is a low chance. Elsewhere remains mostly clear, and away from the coast it is expected to stay that way. This will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 50s across most of the area. The coast, which never made out of the marine layer, just barely warmed in to the 60s so they will likely fall a bit cooler to around 50. A temperature inversion will setup overnight trapping that cool marine air at the surface making low clouds a possibility again tonight along the coast. In fact visible satellite and surface observations already show them advancing.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Impacts: * Thunderstorms cross the area Tuesday afternoon into the evening. A few may be strong with heavy rain and gusty winds.

Westerly flow aloft will advect warm mid level air into the region and looks to increase 850 mb temperatures to around 15C by the afternoon. Under mostly clear skies this should warm most of the area into the low to mid 80s. Similarly to today, the coast will stay cooler as onshore flow continues and the Midcoast will likely end up the coolest spot as flow is directly onshore there. This will amount to temperatures probably only reaching the low 60s.

Tomorrow afternoon looks to have a good chance of thunderstorms in New Hampshire and Western Maine, as the remnants of an MCS look to approach the area. Surface southwesterly flow inland will drive dewpoints into the low 60s and with excellent heating lapse rates will be steepening. Latest CAMs show around 30-35kts of effective shear as well as around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE. All these ingredients combined would support thunderstorm development ahead of the remnant MCS, with some being on the stronger side. At the very least these will contain heavy rain as PWAT values are in the 1-1.25 range. Based on the shear and lapse rates these will also likely contain gusty winds so this wording has been added to the forecast. Small hail also can't be ruled out, but this is lower confidence and has not been included at this time. How far east these storms are able to march will depend on the extent of the marine layer in place.
The caveat there is that storms that do run into the marine layer boundary may see a brief strengthening due to the increased helicity. The bulk of the MCS remnants look to stay well north of our area, but CAMs d0 show a few cells getting into our area late in the night. The environment looks to stay supportive of thunderstorms and will be more likely in the areas that don't get a storm earlier in the afternoon.

Otherwise, skies look to be mostly clear overnight, but with elevated dewpoints low temperatures likely only cool into the upper 50s or low 60s. This will set the stage for what is expected to be the warmest day on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Deep layer ridging along the East Coast will bring very warm conditions to start to long term period on Wednesday. Disturbances rounding the top of the ridge will bring chances for showers and convection Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly across the north.
High falls and the passage of a cold front will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday. There will be a gradual cooling trend into the weekend with mostly dry conditions as high as high pressure over eastern Canada extends into New England.

The two sources of potential impactful weather will be the very warm conditions Wednesday and Thursday and the chance for strong thunderstorms Thursday.

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day in this stretch of above normal temperatures with high pressure stretching from the Southeast to offshore of New England. Southwest winds along T8s climbing to +17C will bring highs into the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. There will be some onshore wind component that will bring a marine influence on temperatures near the coast while even here highs will be near 80 degrees. Favorable mixing will keep dewpoints in the upper 50s where it will be warmest and therefore the humidity will not be high enough to bring heat indices higher than the air temperature. Disturbances moving atop a mid level ridge will trigger some showers and thunderstorms mainly across the mountains and north Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Thursday will be warm again with increasing humidity. A cold front will cross the area from the west, with some timing differences amongst the 12Z model suite as to when the front will cross.
Some model solutions have the front sweeping across the area prior to peak heating around mid day, which will limit the severe potential. A later frontal passage will allow for better CAPE juxtaposed with sufficient shear for strong to severe storms, so will have to monitor the timing of this front over the next few forecast cycles.

The cold front will be offshore by Friday morning with high pressure building in from the north through the weekend. This will bring cooler and drier air into the region for what looks like pleasant conditions for the holiday weekend.



AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...Low clouds and possibly patchy fog may cause localized restrictions tonight, mainly at coastal terminals. VFR will be the prevailing conditions tomorrow, but thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon so expect some brief restrictions at inland terminals as these come through. Low clouds may encroach on RKD Tuesday night, but otherwise conditions should be VFR outside of stray storms. In general winds remain light through Tuesday.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Wednesday into Wednesday night while some TSRA could impact KHIE. A cold front crosses Thursday bringing TSRA that will likely bring periods of restrictions. Drier air arrives Thursday night allowing for VFR to prevail into Saturday.

MARINE
Short Term...SCA conditions are not expected through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the waters.

Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds Wednesday into the weekend. A cold front will cross the waters Thursday that will bring chances for thunderstorms over the waters.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Prince Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:49 AM EDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:59 AM EDT     8.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:56 PM EDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:09 PM EDT     9.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Prince Point, Maine, Tide feet

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:50 AM EDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:14 PM EDT     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     0.86 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Portland, ME,