Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cumberland Center, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1215 PM...Just a quick update to bring us into the afternoon.
Of note, kept skies a little clearer further into the afternoon, and adjusted max temps up just a bit in some spots.

935 AM...Forecast still on track, did some minor updates for T/Td/Winds, but overall should be sunny and warm, with cirrus moving in late. Highs should get to around 80 in much of NH and interior SW ME. Cooler in the mtns, with highs in the mid 70s and on the coast with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

6:40am Update... Temperatures are starting off mostly in the 30s this morning, with upper 20s across the northern valleys. But that doesn't stop temps from warming into the 70s and 80s across most of the area today. Other than the cooler start, no notable changes to the forecast with this update as temperatures quickly rise through the morning once the daytime mixing begins.

Previous...

Temperatures rise even warmer today across most of the area as southwesterly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front.
The southwesterly wind direction pushes temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s across New Hampshire and most of interior Maine. However, with this wind direction coming off the waters into the MidCoast and central Maine, temperatures remain cooler, ranging from the low 60s right at the coast, to the mid 70s through the Kennebec Valley. The southern Maine coast will sit right on a strong temperatures gradient much of the day, with temps in the low 60s right on the beaches at times, while readings near 80 are expected just a couple miles inland.

The day starts off mostly sunny, but as the day progresses more clouds will arrive as high clouds thicken ahead of the approaching cold front. A few showers and thunderstorms may reach the Canadian border and northwestern New Hampshire before sunset, but the bulk of any shower activity holds off until after dark.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
A line of showers and storms out ahead of the approaching cold front moves into northwestern areas this evening. The timing of these storms has moved a little earlier since yesterday. This gives a greater chance that the storms will more organized when they arrive, and have the potential to bring some heavy downpours and gusty winds earlier in the evening. The storms are expected to steadily weaken as they move eastward through the remainder of the evening, likely weakening to primarily showers by the time they move east of the mountains and foothills.

The main line of showers and storms mostly moves through during the evening hours, with some scattered showers lingering into the overnight hours. The cold front doesn't fully clear the coastline until close to sunrise tomorrow, making for a mild night across much of the area. Lows eventually drop into the 50s downwind of the mountains, with much of the night spent in the 60s. Further north toward the Canadian border cooler air does arrive before the night is over, bringing lows into the low 40s to upper 30s there.

Northwesterly flow provides another seasonably warm day tomorrow, but will be noticeably cooler than today. Much drier air arrives as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs generally warm into the 60s south of the mountains on downslope flow, with highs near 70 across southeast New Hampshire, and mainly in the 50s across the north. Mainly sunny skies are expected, along with a northwesterly breeze gusting to around 25 mph through the day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
04Z Long Term Forecast Update... Little change in the latest NBM guidance. Conditions look to become unsettled late Thursday night through portions of the upcoming weekend, although dry periods will likely be mixed in between.

Previously...
A drier and slightly cooler airmass settles in behind the cold front for Thursday as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will be still be mostly in the 60s, although the seabreeze will probably keep the coast in the 50s on Thursday. We should start seeing more mid and high clouds move in Thursday afternoon as moisture starts to increase ahead of the next system.

The high shifts east Thursday night into Friday with a 500mb trough moving across the Great Lakes turning the weather turning more unsettled through at least the first of the weekend with mostly cloudy conditions and multiple chances for showers. The first round of showers will likely move in Thursday night into the first part of Friday along a warm front. The cold front then enters the area Friday into Saturday with waves of low pressures riding along it, potentially bringing multiple rounds of showers across the region. We may to add a chance of thunderstorms for Friday afternoon (mainly NH) if we can get some clearing/destabilization.

Outside of precipitation, the increasing southerly flow will probably bring low stratus and fog to portions of the area, mostly likely in western ME and along the coast. This will also keep western ME cooler on Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s while southern NH could still reach the 70s.

By Sunday into next Monday, there is decent agreement among the models showing the low pressure and cold front east of the area, although the GFS is slower in doing so with the trough becoming more amplified. There is some support for both scenarios, but the majority of ensemble members look to push the trough to the east, which would be a drying trend for these days with some lingering upslope showers in the mountains and partly sunny and breezy conditions for areas to the south.

AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...VFR prevails today, then some showers and storms are possible at HIE and LEB early this evening. Where rain does fall, some localized fog is possible late tonight. Brief showers are possible at all other terminals late this evening. VFR returns fully by tomorrow morning, with northwest winds gusting the around 20-25kt through the day.

Long Term...High pressure brings VFR all sites for Wednesday and Thursday. The weather pattern then becomes more unsettled Thursday night into the weekend with multiple rounds of showers possible and increasing potential of flight restrictions. Even outside of precipitation, the southerly flow may lead to fog and IFR stratus during this time.

MARINE
Short Term...Southwesterly flow freshens ahead of an approaching cold front through the day, bringing SCA conditions by this afternoon. SCA conditions continue overnight, with a cold front crossing the waters late tonight and shifting winds to the west. Seas lower through the morning tomorrow, with some northwesterly wind gusts to around 25kt possible at times during the day.

Long Term...High pressure keeps conditions under SCA levels Wednesday night through Thurday night. The high shifts east Friday and into the weekend with southerly flow probably increasing to SCA levels at times ahead of the next front/low pressure system that looks to cross through Saturday or Saturday night. West to northwest flow follows for Sunday and Monday with SCA conditions remaining possible.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High astronomical tides continue tonight with a tide of 11.6ft at Portland around 1-2am. With seas building to around 5 feet and southerly flow, water levels likely rise to near flood stage tonight.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ151-153.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ154.