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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 731 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.storm watch in effect from late Sunday night through Monday evening...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Mon..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ100 731 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm quiet weather continues through Sunday as high pressure settles over the waters. A developing storm center impacts the waters Sunday night into Monday, with storm force southerly winds possible. Fair conditions then slowly return next week as high pressure builds across the waters.

FXUS61 KGYX 091228 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 728 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure gradually moves east of the region today, bringing moderating temperatures and increased moisture into New England. A significant storm strengthens as it approaches on Sunday, moving through New England Sunday night and Monday with damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and northern snow all possible. Cooler and drier conditions arrive for the middle of next week as high pressure returns. Main dry conditions persist through the end of the week, with a potential warming trend as well.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
730 AM Update... Minor changes to temperatures and dew points were made based on latest sfc observations and model guidance.
Also, went ahead and cancelled the flood watch for Coos county in NH as model guidance continues to trend colder and therefore more snow is now expected across this region.

Previously...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this morning shows an area of mid-level stratus moving across much of the region along with some high altitude cirrus. Northeast radar mosaic shows light returns moving from southwest to northeast over interior western ME but ASOS reports thus far are not indicating this activity is reaching the sfc outside of the higher terrain. This is likely due to a significant dry layer aloft, as seen on the 00Z KGYX RAOB report. Temperatures are generally several degrees warmer than this time yesterday with readings mainly into the 20s/low 30s. The exception is from KAUG and points east where readings are into the upper single digits and teens thanks to less in the way of cloud cover.

A nearly stalled frontal boundary that is currently located over NY state will gradually lift northward today into this evening, bringing with it an increasingly moist airmass. Skies today will be mostly cloudy but despite this afternoon high temperatures will be mild with readings into the upper 30s to middle 40s from north to south. A weak CAD may linger though across portions of the foothills, which could keep these areas into the middle 30s.
Latest hi-resolution guidance continues to indicate that some spotty sprinkles or even drizzle may develop by late in the day as the LLs moisten. Similar to the last several days, there will be little wind to speak of.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
The aforementioned warm front will lift north over the region tonight ahead of a positively titled mid-level trough axis to our west. Patchy drizzle will remain possible through the night, especially across western ME and it could freeze on contact where the temperature is near the freezing mark. Fog is also likely to develop overnight, especially where snowpack remains. It will otherwise be a cloudy night with low temperatures primarily into the 30s.

Heights will fall on Sunday as the trough axis arrives from the west and developing low pressure begins to move northward from the Mid-Atlantic. There will be an increasing chances for rain to develop from west to east through the day along with gradually increasing southerly winds, mainly along the coast.
There will likely be a large temperature gradient across the region with readings into the upper 50s across southern NH and perhaps York County, ME to the upper 30s/low 40s across interior ME due to the CAD.

Rainfall rates will increase on Sunday night into early Monday as strong forcing arrives from a rapidly intensifying low that will be moving overhead as the trough axis becomes negatively tilted. The rainfall forecast hasn't changed significantly from previous shifts with generally 1-3" of total QPF expected and isolated amounts up to 4" possible. The rainfall may have some convective elements to it, especially if a fine line develops and therefore rainfall rates up to around 1"/hr are possible for a brief period of time. This combined with existing snowpack across the interior/mtns and partially frozen ground will likely result in low-lying flooding along with perhaps isolated instances of flash flooding. River/stream rises can also be expected. For more information on the hydrology threat of this system please see the hydrology section below.

The wind threat has also not changed significantly from previous shifts with wind gusts up to 55-60 mph possible, mainly along the coast. Further inland, forecast soundings indicate that a steep sfc inversion will likely remain in place until the front crosses sometime Monday morning, which would keep the 60-80 kt 925mb jet aloft. Should the low-levels mix out then the wind threat would increase further inland but typically the CAD wins this battle. Therefore, kept gusts generally between 35-45 mph across the interior, which would coincide with wind advisory criteria. This matches with latest ensemble based probabilities for both high wind warning and wind advisory criteria. Winds of this magnitude will be capable of producing power outages, especially along the coast.

There is growing consensus that a rapid cooling of the column is likely from west to east on Monday morning as low pressure rapidly intensifies, allowing for strong dynamic cooling. There unfortunately remains a large amount of uncertainty in how quickly this occurs and how much precipitation is left but there is a growing threat for at least several inches of heavy, wet snow, especially across northern NH and near the Canadian Border. As a result, went ahead and nudged the snowfall forecast upwards some across these areas with potential impacts to both travel and power outages. This part of the forecast is perhaps the most uncertain as if we cool fast enough as some guidance suggest, then northern areas could receive snowfall in excess of a half foot.

Lastly, some pockets of minor coastal flooding and/or splash- over remain possible despite relatively low astronomical tides.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Models are trending toward a +PNA pattern next week, but it’s not strong, and it never seems to want to lock in, which has been the way the +PNA events have been going this cool season.
Mean troughing is expected at 500 mb but the waves move through quickly, and the shifts from cold to warm air are frequent, that confidence in temps at any given time are low, although colder air behind the Monday system on Tue into Wed is expected.
Otherwise, with the fast moving, weaker system, there will several chance of mountain SHSN through next week as well.

Monday will see the cold air continue to spill in, with upslope snows following Monday’s system. Lows will fall into the upper teens N to the mid 20s in the S. Winds shift from NW to SW on Tuesday, and this should reduce the upslope SHSN and allow highs to rise into the 30s across much of the area, although closer to 30 in the mtns, and around 40 in srn NH and the ME coast.

After this will see several waves move through, with the chc of SHSN each day, and temps rising and falling a bit each day as well, but will mostly not stray too far from normal. There is some potential for a more significant warm-up by Friday, but confidence remains low.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...MVFR to VFR ceilings will persist at times through the day before becoming mainly IFR tonight. Light and variable winds will persist today through tonight. Patchy FG/BR is also likely tonight. Widespread RA moves in Sunday afternoon and continues through the first half of Monday, bringing with it IFR to LIFR ceilings. In addition, southerly winds will increase Sunday night into Monday morning with gusts up to 45 kts possible, especially at KPWM, KAUG, and KRKD. Winds will become westerly behind a cold front later Monday with gradually improving conditions, although MVFR restrictions will likely persist at KHIE with upslope SHSN.

LLWS: A period of LLWS is likely on Sunday as a warm front lifts northward.

Long Term... Should see fairly quick improvement to VFR Monday evening at all but KHIE/KLEB, which will likely be MVFR, with KHIE dropping to IFR at times in SHSN. All terminals should see VFR by midday Tue, although KHIE could drop again late Tue night or Wed as another cold front approaches.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday. Low pressure then arrives Sunday night into Monday, bringing with it increasing southerly winds. Storm force winds remain possible along with increasing seas of 15-20 ft outside of the bays by Monday afternoon with 3-6 ft in the bays.
Winds will become westerly late Monday behind a cold front with gales likely continuing through early Tuesday morning.

Long Term...Although winds and seas drop off later Tuesday, SCA conditions will likely persist until at least late in the day.
High pressure then returns later in the week, allowing for lighter winds and seas.

HYDROLOGY
Flood watch remains in effect for Sunday night through Monday evening, with continued river rises thereafter. The warm temperatures and more notably high dewpoints around 50F south of the mountains will combine with blustery/strong winds to decimate the snowpack from the foothills southward. The accompanying heavy rainfall will combine with snowmelt to cause rapid rises on area streams and rivers. Contrarily, the snow in the higher terrain is cold and dry, which supports less snowmelt. The headwaters are still likely to experience flooding just from the 1 to 3 inches of rainfall even with less snowmelt. The rainfall efficiency will be anomalous for this time of year, with the potential for an inch to fall in 6 hours early Monday. The ground conditions are in a variable state of frozen/partially frozen/and near- saturated, which in essence means there will be limited percolation and more rapid runoff.
Concerns are present for overland flash flooding during this period, which will also support rapid flooding of small streams and rivers. The mainstem rivers will swell with flooding likely into Tuesday for some forecast points. Attention will be focused on where the axis of heaviest rainfall and interior penetration of the warm dewpoints materialize.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for MEZ019>028.
NH...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for NHZ003>015.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for NHZ014.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for ANZ150>154.

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Falmouth Foreside
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Sat -- 01:39 AM EST     1.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM EST     9.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:46 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:18 PM EST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:28 PM EST     8.26 feet High Tide
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Falmouth Foreside, Maine, Tide feet

Back Cove
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Sat -- 01:45 AM EST     1.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EST     8.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:24 PM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:29 PM EST     8.01 feet High Tide
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Back Cove, Maine, Tide feet

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