Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pottersville, NY
May 6, 2024 8:53 AM EDT (12:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:34 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 4:42 AM Moonset 6:36 PM |
FXUS61 KALY 061043 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 643 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A slow moving front will cross the region today bringing a few passing showers, mainly through this morning. Gradual clearing is expected this afternoon into tonight, with mostly sunny and warmer conditions for Tuesday. An approaching low pressure system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with unsettled conditions continuing into late week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE
As of 625 AM EDT, mostly cloudy skies continue across the region. Some showers were tracking across far northern Hamilton/Warren Counties, otherwise most other areas remain dry.
As wind shift/occluded front slowly approaches from western NY, we expect isolated to scattered showers to develop across the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley over the next 1-2 hours, which will then track into portions of the Capital Region/upper Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills between roughly 9 AM and Noon. The showers should then shift south and east of the Capital Region early this afternoon.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy through at least most of this morning, although some breaks may develop across the SW Adirondacks after 10 AM. Slow clearing of the lower clouds will then develop from NW to SE this afternoon, although high clouds will persist and may even thicken at times this afternoon.
So with this update, just minor adjustments to PoPs, temps and dewpoints according to latest obs.
[PREVIOUS 411 AM EDT]...As of 410 AM EDT, widespread low clouds continue across the region, with temperatures mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Isolated showers/patchy drizzle was noted across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County, with scattered showers also developing across portions of west central NYS, closer to a cold/occluded front.
The aforementioned front will slowly track east/southeast across the region today. Abundant low level moisture ahead of the boundary will keep skies mostly cloudy through this morning, although some breaks may develop across the SW Adirondacks later this morning. Isolated to scattered showers will also continue tracking east/southeast ahead of the front, with best coverage of showers this morning across the southern Adirondacks.
As the front settles south and east of the Capital Region this afternoon, additional isolated to scattered showers should redevelop near or just ahead of the front. There could be just enough instability (MU CAPES 250-500 J/kg) across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT for an embedded thunderstorm as well.
Farther north and west, low clouds should gradually erode this afternoon, although thickening high level clouds will spread northeastward ahead of an upper level disturbance approaching from the Ohio Valley. So, although some breaks of filtered sunshine will be possible this afternoon, there will still be clouds around.
Max temps should rebound into the upper 60s to lower 70s for most valley areas, with some of the warmest temps possibly across portions of the Mohawk and upper Hudson Valleys, where there may be longer periods of filtered sunshine this afternoon.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
For tonight, aforementioned upper level disturbance across the Ohio Valley tracks toward the mid Atlantic coast. High clouds to the north of this system should linger across the region through midnight, before thinning from north to south thereafter. Once the high clouds clear out, temps may drop off rapidly across northern areas, which may also allow for patchy fog to form within river valleys. Low temps ranging from the lower/mid 40s across the southern Adirondacks, to the upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.
Mainly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure builds across the region. Max temps should reach the lower/mid 70s within valley areas and 65-70 across higher elevations.
Tuesday night may start clear to partly cloudy, however clouds will then thicken with showers developing after midnight from west to east ahead of an approaching warm front and fast moving upper level disturbance. Showalter Indices drop to between 0 and -2C for areas mainly west of the Hudson River toward daybreak Wednesday, so some rumbles of thunder may occur in these areas. Lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday morning across the region with approaching warm front.
The warm front may then lift northeast into the upper Hudson Valley region and southern VT in the afternoon, allowing portions of the region to enter the warm sector of incoming system. Models suggest strong 0-6 km shear of 45-55 KT across the region, however there is high uncertainty regarding amounts of instability across the region, with highest probabilities of MU CAPES >500 J/kg generally south of I-90 Wednesday afternoon.
SPC has placed this area (south of I-90) within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, with isolated coverage expected ahead of incoming cold front from the northwest. Will have to watch trends as we get closer to see if instability parameters increase/decrease, which ultimately will depend on timing of cold front. High temps should reach the upper 60s to lower/mid 70s, although if sunshine breaks out earlier than expected, portions of the mid Hudson Valley could be warmer, perhaps reaching around 80.
Lingering showers possible Wednesday evening, otherwise clearing and cooler with lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The extended forecast begins with wet and unsettled weather returning to the forecast area, as a positively tilted mid and upper level trough will be approaching from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Thursday. Broad southwest flow develops aloft, as a warm front and a low pressure system brings some showers in during the late the morning into the afternoon with PoPs kept in the likely and categorical range. The isentropic lift increases ahead of the warm front late in the day. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible south and west of the Capital Region. Max temps will be near normal with lower to mid 60s in the lower elevations and 50s over the higher terrain. The coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms increases Thu night, as the warm front moves close to the NY and PA border. Likely PoPs were maintained THU night with lows in the 40s with pockets of upper 30s over the southern Greens and southern Dacks. The inclement weather continues on Friday with periods of rain continuing ahead of the upper low and the occluding cyclone.
With the upper low overhead max temps were lowered below the NBM values with 40s over the higher terrain and widespread lower to mid 50s in the valleys. The medium range guidance and ensembles have the cyclone pull away into northern New England and New Brunswick with the rain tapering to scattered showers. It will remain cool with lows in the mid/upper 30s to mid 40s. Total rainfall may range from 0.50" to 1.50" based on the WPC and probabilistic guidance with locally higher amounts THU-FRI.
A brief break in the rainfall is possible on Saturday with isolated showers or sprinkles over the higher terrain, as the upper level low moves away and short-wave ridging briefly builds in. Sun mixes with clouds with highs running about 5 degrees below normal with 50s to lower 60s for max temps. Clouds increase Saturday night with the next northern stream short-wave diving in across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Region. The cyclonic vorticity advection increase the threat for scattered to numerous showers during the afternoon with temps near to slightly below normal to close the weekend. The latest Day 8-14 Outlook for 13-19 May 2024 from CPC is forecasting near normal temps with precipitation slightly above normal.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Tuesday...LIFR/IFR cigs will continue at KGFL/KPSF until 16Z/TUE. Some periodic IFR stratus may continue at KALB a few more hours before MVFR/low VFR conditions continue. KPOU stayed MVFR/VFR most of the morning, but a lower MVFR cig will likely form with some spotty showers this morning.
An isolated shower can not be ruled out with the approaching cold front. Widespread MVFR cigs/low VFR cigs will linger into the early pm.
Drier air in the wake of a cold front moves in during the mid to late afternoon and expect conditions to rise to VFR levels between 20Z/TUE and 00Z/WED with the skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear. Mostly clear conditions and VFR conditions will continue overnight.
The winds will increase from the south to southwest at less than 10 KT in the late morning into the early pm and then veer to the west to northwest at 5-10 KT in the mid pm into the early evening. They will become light to calm prior to midnight.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Isolated SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 643 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A slow moving front will cross the region today bringing a few passing showers, mainly through this morning. Gradual clearing is expected this afternoon into tonight, with mostly sunny and warmer conditions for Tuesday. An approaching low pressure system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with unsettled conditions continuing into late week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE
As of 625 AM EDT, mostly cloudy skies continue across the region. Some showers were tracking across far northern Hamilton/Warren Counties, otherwise most other areas remain dry.
As wind shift/occluded front slowly approaches from western NY, we expect isolated to scattered showers to develop across the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley over the next 1-2 hours, which will then track into portions of the Capital Region/upper Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills between roughly 9 AM and Noon. The showers should then shift south and east of the Capital Region early this afternoon.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy through at least most of this morning, although some breaks may develop across the SW Adirondacks after 10 AM. Slow clearing of the lower clouds will then develop from NW to SE this afternoon, although high clouds will persist and may even thicken at times this afternoon.
So with this update, just minor adjustments to PoPs, temps and dewpoints according to latest obs.
[PREVIOUS 411 AM EDT]...As of 410 AM EDT, widespread low clouds continue across the region, with temperatures mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Isolated showers/patchy drizzle was noted across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County, with scattered showers also developing across portions of west central NYS, closer to a cold/occluded front.
The aforementioned front will slowly track east/southeast across the region today. Abundant low level moisture ahead of the boundary will keep skies mostly cloudy through this morning, although some breaks may develop across the SW Adirondacks later this morning. Isolated to scattered showers will also continue tracking east/southeast ahead of the front, with best coverage of showers this morning across the southern Adirondacks.
As the front settles south and east of the Capital Region this afternoon, additional isolated to scattered showers should redevelop near or just ahead of the front. There could be just enough instability (MU CAPES 250-500 J/kg) across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT for an embedded thunderstorm as well.
Farther north and west, low clouds should gradually erode this afternoon, although thickening high level clouds will spread northeastward ahead of an upper level disturbance approaching from the Ohio Valley. So, although some breaks of filtered sunshine will be possible this afternoon, there will still be clouds around.
Max temps should rebound into the upper 60s to lower 70s for most valley areas, with some of the warmest temps possibly across portions of the Mohawk and upper Hudson Valleys, where there may be longer periods of filtered sunshine this afternoon.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
For tonight, aforementioned upper level disturbance across the Ohio Valley tracks toward the mid Atlantic coast. High clouds to the north of this system should linger across the region through midnight, before thinning from north to south thereafter. Once the high clouds clear out, temps may drop off rapidly across northern areas, which may also allow for patchy fog to form within river valleys. Low temps ranging from the lower/mid 40s across the southern Adirondacks, to the upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.
Mainly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure builds across the region. Max temps should reach the lower/mid 70s within valley areas and 65-70 across higher elevations.
Tuesday night may start clear to partly cloudy, however clouds will then thicken with showers developing after midnight from west to east ahead of an approaching warm front and fast moving upper level disturbance. Showalter Indices drop to between 0 and -2C for areas mainly west of the Hudson River toward daybreak Wednesday, so some rumbles of thunder may occur in these areas. Lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday morning across the region with approaching warm front.
The warm front may then lift northeast into the upper Hudson Valley region and southern VT in the afternoon, allowing portions of the region to enter the warm sector of incoming system. Models suggest strong 0-6 km shear of 45-55 KT across the region, however there is high uncertainty regarding amounts of instability across the region, with highest probabilities of MU CAPES >500 J/kg generally south of I-90 Wednesday afternoon.
SPC has placed this area (south of I-90) within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, with isolated coverage expected ahead of incoming cold front from the northwest. Will have to watch trends as we get closer to see if instability parameters increase/decrease, which ultimately will depend on timing of cold front. High temps should reach the upper 60s to lower/mid 70s, although if sunshine breaks out earlier than expected, portions of the mid Hudson Valley could be warmer, perhaps reaching around 80.
Lingering showers possible Wednesday evening, otherwise clearing and cooler with lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The extended forecast begins with wet and unsettled weather returning to the forecast area, as a positively tilted mid and upper level trough will be approaching from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Thursday. Broad southwest flow develops aloft, as a warm front and a low pressure system brings some showers in during the late the morning into the afternoon with PoPs kept in the likely and categorical range. The isentropic lift increases ahead of the warm front late in the day. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible south and west of the Capital Region. Max temps will be near normal with lower to mid 60s in the lower elevations and 50s over the higher terrain. The coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms increases Thu night, as the warm front moves close to the NY and PA border. Likely PoPs were maintained THU night with lows in the 40s with pockets of upper 30s over the southern Greens and southern Dacks. The inclement weather continues on Friday with periods of rain continuing ahead of the upper low and the occluding cyclone.
With the upper low overhead max temps were lowered below the NBM values with 40s over the higher terrain and widespread lower to mid 50s in the valleys. The medium range guidance and ensembles have the cyclone pull away into northern New England and New Brunswick with the rain tapering to scattered showers. It will remain cool with lows in the mid/upper 30s to mid 40s. Total rainfall may range from 0.50" to 1.50" based on the WPC and probabilistic guidance with locally higher amounts THU-FRI.
A brief break in the rainfall is possible on Saturday with isolated showers or sprinkles over the higher terrain, as the upper level low moves away and short-wave ridging briefly builds in. Sun mixes with clouds with highs running about 5 degrees below normal with 50s to lower 60s for max temps. Clouds increase Saturday night with the next northern stream short-wave diving in across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Region. The cyclonic vorticity advection increase the threat for scattered to numerous showers during the afternoon with temps near to slightly below normal to close the weekend. The latest Day 8-14 Outlook for 13-19 May 2024 from CPC is forecasting near normal temps with precipitation slightly above normal.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Tuesday...LIFR/IFR cigs will continue at KGFL/KPSF until 16Z/TUE. Some periodic IFR stratus may continue at KALB a few more hours before MVFR/low VFR conditions continue. KPOU stayed MVFR/VFR most of the morning, but a lower MVFR cig will likely form with some spotty showers this morning.
An isolated shower can not be ruled out with the approaching cold front. Widespread MVFR cigs/low VFR cigs will linger into the early pm.
Drier air in the wake of a cold front moves in during the mid to late afternoon and expect conditions to rise to VFR levels between 20Z/TUE and 00Z/WED with the skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear. Mostly clear conditions and VFR conditions will continue overnight.
The winds will increase from the south to southwest at less than 10 KT in the late morning into the early pm and then veer to the west to northwest at 5-10 KT in the mid pm into the early evening. They will become light to calm prior to midnight.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Isolated SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
Troy
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:12 AM EDT 5.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM EDT 0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:39 PM EDT 5.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:10 PM EDT -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:12 AM EDT 5.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM EDT 0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:39 PM EDT 5.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:10 PM EDT -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 3 |
| 2 am |
| 4.3 |
| 3 am |
| 5.3 |
| 4 am |
| 5.7 |
| 5 am |
| 5.5 |
| 6 am |
| 4.6 |
| 7 am |
| 3.5 |
| 8 am |
| 2.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| -0 |
Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT 5.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:48 AM EDT 0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT 5.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:00 PM EDT -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT 5.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:48 AM EDT 0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT 5.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:00 PM EDT -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.7 |
| 1 am |
| 3.2 |
| 2 am |
| 4.5 |
| 3 am |
| 5.4 |
| 4 am |
| 5.7 |
| 5 am |
| 5.4 |
| 6 am |
| 4.4 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 2.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 5 |
| 5 pm |
| 5 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Burlington, VT,
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