Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pottersville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:16PM Saturday December 7, 2019 2:30 PM EST (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:09PMMoonset 3:13AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pottersville, NY
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location: 43.76, -73.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 071800 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 100 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in over the region today. It will move eastward across the region tomorrow resulting in fair but cold weather. Our next weather system moves into the Northeast early in the work week bringing in milder temperatures and a widespread rainfall.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1235 PM EST . A mainly cold and brisk afternoon with a few lake enhanced isolated snow showers and flurries persisting west of the Hudson River Valley for a few more hours based on the latest radar trends. Little or no accumulations is expected. Cyclonic flow continues aloft. High pressure is ridging in from the OH Valley. The clouds may linger the longest west of the Hudson River Valley. The 12Z KALY sounding show northwest flow with a residual moist axis that will be rung out with the northwest flow and dry air aloft. The boundary layer should dry out and a trend to at least partly sunny conditions the rest of the day. Northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph will create wind chills in the single digits and teens.

Highs will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s with a few isolated mid 30s in the mid Hudson Valley and upper teens to mid 20s over the hills and mtns.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Clear and cold Saturday night as high pressure will be overhead but then the low level ridging builds east and south low level flow begins. Weak warm advection begins Sunday morning and strengthens Sunday afternoon as south winds could get breezy at times. Some high clouds could begin to spread over the region. Highs Sunday in the mid to upper 30s but near 40 mid Hudson Valley and around 30 to lower 30s higher terrain.

Thin high clouds and some decoupling of winds Sunday evening should support temperatures dropping a couple of degrees before thicker clouds come in and temperatures rise between midnight and daybreak. There are some disagreements in guidance as to the timing of the onset of precipitation, either around daybreak Monday or later Monday morning. If the precipitation arrives early, then there could be some mixed precipitation north of the Mohawk Valley into southern VT but just small chances.

Temperatures rise Monday morning as low level boundary layer flow increases, low level forcing and isentropic lift increases and precipitation spreads over the entire region. How much temperatures rise is in question as ageostrophic low level flow is east to northeast and the full retreat of the cold airmass is in question. Still, with south to southwest strong boundary layer winds, there should be some warming at the surface, even with the rain becoming widespread. Highs Monday in the 40s to near 50 but lower 40s northern areas. Rain continues Monday night as temperatures stay above freezing in all areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. In the long term, we are looking for above normal temperatures with rainfall Tuesday, followed by sharply colder air with snow showers and lake effect snow Wednesday and Thursday and cold but fair weather on Friday.

The combination of warm temperatures generally in the 40s to lower 50s, dewpoints in the 40s, and rainfall will lead to ripening of the snow pack and some melting and runoff, although how much is still questionable. Some flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

Low pressure will be over Quebec Tuesday morning, with an eastward moving cold front trailing southwest from about Buffalo to Cleveland to Cincinnati. We will be in warm sector with southwest flow aloft. Tuesday may start cloudy with just scattered showers, but LLJ looks to increase, peaking around 50kt, Tuesday afternoon and evening just ahead of the cold front as it progresses eastward. Combination of low level jet forcing, lift from cold front and precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches later Tuesday into Tuesday evening should allow for a period of moderate, possibly heavy, rain just ahead of cold front.

ECMWF, has a slightly slower cold frontal passage Tuesday evening and a wave developing on the front with an anafront look where precipitation could end as a significant period of snow Tuesday night. ECMWF may be on to something as upper level jet position Tuesday night is very similar in both Euro and GFS solutions.

Tuesday night into Wednesday night, sharp cold advection will occur with 850 mb temps falling to -15 to -20C. There will likely be lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario Wednesday and Thursday. Low level instability may lead to scattered snow showers all areas on Wednesday. Lows Wednesday morning from the teens across the southern Adirondacks to around 30 in the mid Hudson Valley. Highs Wednesday from around 20 in the southern Adirondacks to the mid 30s in the mid Hudson Valley.

For Thursday and Friday, a drying trend will occur, aside from areas downwind of Lake Ontario, where lake effect snow will continue into Thursday. High pressure is forecast to cross the area on Friday, keeping temperatures cold but with dry weather expected. Lows in the single digits and teens both nights with highs on Thursday in the teens and 20s and on Friday in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR ceilings and visibilities are in place at the TAF sites but with snow showers continuing to stream off Lake Ontario into eastern NY, sky coverage varies between cloudy and partly cloudy. Despite flurries nearby ALB and PSF, ceilings have remained between 3kft and 5kft. However, we included a TEMPO group for PSF from 18z to 21z to account for potential brief reductions in ceilings to MVFR status.

West-northwest flow streaming off Lake Ontario has been advecting moisture towards ALB and PSF for most of today but will end this evening as high pressure builds into the Northeast. As the subsidence inversions lowers overnight and clear skies, moisture may get trapped underneath the inversion and lead to stratocumulus clouds after 06z. We included SCT008 at ALB, PSF and GFL to account for potential MVFR or even IFR ceilings. With a deep snow pack on the ground, fog may be harder to come by despite clear skies. Any reduced ceilings should clear by 13z - 15z Sunday.

Northwesterly winds at 5-15 kt today with gusts up to 20-25 kts should turn calm tonight. Winds turn southeasterly Sunday morning and increase to 5-10 kts.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Scattered SHRA. SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday, so little melting and/or runoff is expected through the weekend. This will allow the snow pack to be maintained and for some ice to build on shallow waterways, especially during the overnight hours.

Temperatures will likely rise to above normal values by Monday into Tuesday, with periods of rain likely. There is uncertainty with the amount and placement of the heaviest rain, with some models indicating potential for 0.50-1.50 inches, and others 1-3 inches. Either way, at least some ripening and melting of the snowpack and runoff is expected, although it is too early to determine if there will be a flooding threat during this period. Rises on area waterways are likely during this timeframe.

It will turn sharply colder from Wednesday through the end of the week, which should put a stop to any melting/runoff, and allow river levels to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . NAS/Wasula NEAR TERM . Wasula SHORT TERM . NAS LONG TERM . SND AVIATION . Speciale HYDROLOGY . NAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY29 mi38 minN 610.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGFL

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW3NW5CalmNW4E3CalmNE4N113S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmE7E5CalmN6
1 day agoW10
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W8NW7W5CalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------SE4CalmNE4N5
2 days agoS6S6SW5SW6S4S7S6S3S7S3CalmSW4S3S3CalmS5SW6SW5SW7SW6W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 01:00 AM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:44 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:34 PM EST     4.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:19 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.343.12.21.60.80-0.20.623.244.64.643.22.51.810.30.51.52.6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:52 AM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:34 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:26 PM EST     4.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:09 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.33.932.11.50.7-0-0.10.82.23.34.14.64.63.93.12.41.70.80.20.61.72.7

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.