Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pottersville, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening with damaging wind gusts the main threat to trees, power poles and property.

2. Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday south of the Capital Region.

3. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low from Thu through the end of the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The mid and upper level flow is nearly zonal over the Northeast this morning with a frontal boundary over upstate NY and New England. The air mass is more humid today and after morning patchy fog burns off, temps should warm quickly from the I-90 corridor south. The boundary drifts back north in the morning. A pre-frontal sfc trough in the warm sector will focus a round of showers and thunderstorms today, some of which could be strong to severe. The latest HRRR guidance indicates mean SBCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg with pockets in excess of 1000 J/kg. The deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer is 35-45 KT based on the HRRR.
The winds are strong in the H700-500 layer at about 50 KT. The latest CAM guidance is variable on the timing of initially some discrete cells forming in the late morning/early pm over central NY and west of the Hudson River Valley and then quickly forming into a line impacting most of eastern NY and western New England in the mid-late pm/early evening. The last several runs of the 3-km HRRR are faster with the impact period from about 1-6 pm, whereas the 3-km NAM is slower in the 3 to 7 pm time frame. Some of the model soundings from the 3-km HRRR indicate MLCAPE reaching about 1000 J/kg with DCAPE in the 500-800 J/kg.
Both the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest indicated steep low-level lapse rates below 850 hPa from the Capital Region south. The updrafts may extend tall enough and tap into those strong winds in the H700-500 layer for a robust damaging wind potential. SPC upgraded the entire area to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) with 15% probabilities for damaging winds 50 KT or greater. Bowing segments will be possible with the line. There is some uncertainty if the line will impact locations in our southeast extreme (mid Hudson Valley/NW CT). We tried to take a blended approach based on the NBM and collab with neighbors for the main impact period to be 2 to 8 pm (18Z to 00Z). With the fast flow this could move through quicker though.

The damaging winds could knock down trees, break large tree branches, down power poles and lines, and yield some property.
Also, CG lightning will be an issue with the thunderstorms.
Humidity levels will be moderate with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s. Temps will depend on sky cover, but 70s to lower 80s will be possible. The lower 80s will be from Albany south to the I-84 corridor into NW CT. 60s will be common over the southern Greens and the southern Adirondacks. The showers and thunderstorms decrease early tonight with some patchy fog forming especially along and north of the Mohawk River Valley. Lows will be very mild in the 50s to lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another wave quickly approaches from the central and eastern Great Lakes Region Wed morning. The short-wave will move along the rim of the ridge centered over the Southeast and Florida.
Showers and some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms impact locations from I-90 northward in the late morning/early pm. One area that may be vulnerable for isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms will be near the I-84 corridor (southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT). Mid-level lapse rates steepen, and the deep shear is still 40 KT with MLCAPEs around 1000 J/kg. A damaging wind and large hail threat is possible and SPC continues most of the area in a Marginal (Level 1 out 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms. Highs 80 to 85F will be common in this area with 60s and 70s further north. The latest 3-km NAMnest indicates some stronger cells may form along and south of the Capital Region with the 00Z 3-km HRRR with less of a threat.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Above normal temps conclude the work week and enter the weekend.
However, a cold frontal passage on Sunday may keep temps closer to normal and then next week could start with cooler than normal based on the WPC Days 4 to 7 forecast inserted. Backing up, ridging may build in enough for the warmest temps of the week (mid 70s to lower 80s outside the northern mtns) on Thu with NBM probs (40-90%) supporting this. Yet another disturbance moving along the stalled boundary over northern NY and New England will bring scattered to numerous showers with some thunderstorms for Thu with the highest probabilities for precipitation 50-70% from I-90 north with lesser of a threat south. A stronger mid and upper level trough along with the cold front will keep chances of showers on Friday before a brief reprieve of drier weather to open the weekend. The probability of impactful weather Thu through the weekend is low due to the lower severe weather threat and the rainfall being beneficial with no hydro impacts anticipated at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions at all terminals as of 1:15 PM EDT should prevail through the next few hours. Then, chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms increase later this afternoon and evening. Confidence remains fairly low on coverage of showers/storms, but we did attempt to narrow down the timing of showers/storms from the previous TAF issuance. Given current observations and trends, GFL still has the best chance to see a shower/storm, but chances for ALB/PSF/POU look slightly lower than when the 12z TAFs were issued, so we have made some adjustments to tempo and prob30 groups to reflect this. Gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible with any showers/storms.

Showers/storms come to and end this evening by 00-02z. Then, mainly VFR conditions through the first half of the night with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds. Cigs trend down to MVFR at ALB/GFL/PSF for the second half of the night. If any of these terminals see a shower/storm with appreciable rainfall this evening, then some localized fog/mist and IFR conditions can't be ruled out later tonight. Flying conditions trend back up to VFR for most of tomorrow morning, outside of a batch of showers that could bring some MVFR vsbys/cigs towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Today April 14: Albany: 89(2023)
Glens Falls: 84(2023)
Poughkeepsie: 91(2023)

Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003)
Glens Falls: 84(2003)
Poughkeepsie: 84(2003)

Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012)
Glens Falls: 89(2002)
Poughkeepsie: 91(2012)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.