Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:25PM Sunday August 25, 2019 8:09 PM EDT (00:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:19AMMoonset 3:49PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 354 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then partly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201908260300;;199052 FZUS53 KDTX 251956 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 354 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-260300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 252337
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
737 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Milder night ahead...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: afternoon analysis reveals a sharp
short-wave ridge cutting up through the central great lakes region
into quebec. Short-wave troughing follows close behind swinging
through the midwest and just into the western great lakes with a
well defined circulation lifting up through eastern minnesota western
wisconsin.

Stronger southeast return flow is now well established across the
region on the backside of retreating surface high pressure in new
england. Return flow has pulled higher low level dewpoint air
into northern michigan... Responsible for our substantial "heating
of the day" cloud cover across the region. Upstream, thicker band
of mid and high cloud cover along and ahead of the trough is
making inroads into the western great lakes, some of which is
already pressing into northern lower michigan.

Primary forecast concerns: minimal through tonight.

We lose our "heating of the day" cloud cover fairly quickly this
evening with many areas becoming partly cloudy or even clear for a
bit. But, mid and high cloud cover will be on the increase
especially overnight into Monday morning, in advance of the
aforementioned short-wave trough that swings through on Monday.

With higher dewpoints, some cloud cover and increased low level
flow, temperatures will run much milder as compared to the last
few night.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

A better chance for rain on Monday night Tuesday...

high impact weather potential... Thunder possible Monday evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Looks like the speed of the warm
front rain has slowed a bit as the GFS is now about the speed of the
ecmwf. The nam12 and rap13 are all in agreement that the rain is
after 18z Mon as well. The hiresw products are also in agreement.

However, it doesn't look like the rain is likely, until the warm
front moves through and N lower is briefly in the warm sector (after
06z tue). That's when the models show the upper destabilization
occurs (mainly the showalter index which GOES sub 0c). The cold
front is moving into lake michigan and c upper around 12z tue. This
will bring a line of thunderstorms, and then should be out of the
forecast area between 21z Tue and 00z wed. It is possible that there
will be some showers between 00z Wed and 09z wed, but the as the 500
mb low dips into N lake superior, and the 850 mb temperatures fall
to around +6c rain showers become likely again. As the 500 mb low
passes the upper great lakes by 12z thu, rain showers are possible
through the day on Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns... Looks like we should have rain, and fair
bit. However, the way this summer has gone will believe it when it
gets here. Thunder is also possible, but the jet dynamics arrive
post frontal. However, there will be some good shear in the warm
sector, so something could get strong, but at this point, it looks
like it wouldn't get severe.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
high impact weather potential... Rain impacting the dryness.

Extended (Wednesday evening through Sunday)... Wednesday evening, the
rain showers are still possible as the 850 mb temperatures continue
to remain sub +7c through 12z Thu with the 500 mb low moving to the
east. Thursday starts out with high pressure, then begins to cloud
up as another 500 mb shortwave moves through the upper great lakes
with a warm front and brings another small chance for rain showers,
that expands Thursday night as the cold front moves through the
area. Friday may be dry as the ECMWF begins to stretch the cold
front out over the region and impulses travel up the front. The gfs
remains dry as it pushes the cold front south of the state. In fact,
the GFS has Saturday dry as well. The ECMWF doesn't dry out the
region until Saturday. Sunday is a toss up, as the rain looks to go
north and south of the forecast area on the gfs, while the ecmwf
continue to keep things dry through Monday morning.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 737 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
high pressure continues to move east away from new england, while
a cold front advances into the western dakotas. Mid high clouds
are increasing ahead of the incoming system, though precip is
still a long ways off. QuietVFR tonight into Monday morning,
though showers will push into NW lower mi after 18z. MVFR
cigs vsbys possible in NW lower mi after precip arrives.

Se winds will lighten up tonight, but become somewhat gusty again
on Monday.

Marine
Issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
southeast winds are gustier out there today. However, most marine
sites obs remain below small craft advisory levels. So, I may
cancel the current headlines with the afternoon forecast issuance.

However, gusty winds return for Monday afternoon onward through
midweek when small craft headlines will most likely be needed.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lhz345>347.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi69 min ESE 16 G 17 72°F 1019.3 hPa (-2.0)
45163 16 mi49 min ESE 12 G 14 72°F 72°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi29 min E 17 G 19 71°F 1020 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi29 min E 9.9 G 14 69°F 1021 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi33 minE 510.00 miFair71°F55°F59%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCFS

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4NE3--Calm------Calm--CalmNE3E3E6E8
G15
E9E8SE6
G14
E8E6E3E4SE6E5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE5NE5N4NE4E7E8E7E7E7E5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N6NW7N9N8N4N6N4N4N6N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.