Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 6:52PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 7:34 AM EDT (11:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:39PMMoonset 9:24AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 359 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Thursday afternoon...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy. Isolated light showers in the morning, then a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy with a slight chance of light showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201910161515;;782793 FZUS53 KDTX 160759 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-161515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 161036
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
636 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 249 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Another round of wind driven showers today...

high impact weather potential: wind and attendant marine concerns,
to include gales and lakeshore flooding.

Pattern synopsis forecast: sharp shortwave trough and deepening
surface low making their way across the area early this morning. Mid
level dry slot working into most of northern lower
michigan... Bringing a temporary end to the widespread showers to
that area (although plenty of drizzle in moisture rich low level
environment). Most persistent showers now focused across central
upper michigan and northern lake michigan within corridor of
deepening deformation frontogenetical forcing. Surge of strongest
cold air advection and strongest pressure gradient centered off to
our west across wisconsin and western upper michigan, with northwest
winds already become quite gusty in these areas.

Shortwave trough continues to deepen today as it works across lake
huron, reaching southeast ontario later this evening. Surface low
also intensifies a bit more, reaching sub 1000mb levels across
northern lake huron georgian bay this morning, before energy
transfers to rapidly developing "northeaster" moving up the east
coast tonight. Pressure gradient and surge of cold air advection
reaches maturity across our area today, setting the stage for more
classic northern michigan fall weather, featuring gusty northwest
winds and more lake enhanced showers. Good news is system will
remain a quick mover, with steadily improving conditions as we head
through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: addressing gusty winds and
attendant marine lakeshore flooding concern into this evening.

Details: expect northwest to north winds to be on the increase, with
frequent gusts of 25 to 35 mph (locally higher along the lake
michigan coast where NAM bufkit momentum transfer shows potential
for a few gusts approaching 40 mph) by later this morning and
afternoon. Shower threat will spread back across the entire area
quickly this morning into this afternoon as dry-slot exits and
system backside deformation spreads overhead. May even see a bit of
developing lake moisture contribution in favored northwest flow
areas as cold air advection intensifies. As mentioned above, system
will remain a steady mover, with forcing exiting stage right this
evening, leaving pure lake processes to generate additional showers
by later tonight. Despite an impressive over-water thermal gradient
as h8 temperatures fall into the negative single digits, overall set-
up for lake effect not terribly impressive with very shallow
inversion heights and plenty of very dry air within the upper
portions of the ever shrinking lake induced convective layer. Think
any lake effect will be spotty and very light at best after
midnight. Gusty winds this evening will gradually subside overnight
as system departs and pressure gradient relaxes. As for
temperatures, expect highs today in the upper 40s lower 50s to occur
relatively early this afternoon. Lows tonight will run about average
for this time of year, ranging from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 249 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Quiet weather...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The retreating sfc low moving off the
east coast will continue to affect the weather over the upper great
lakes as the north to nnw winds will continue over the region. 850
mb temperatures Thursday morning will still be around -4c and warm
through the day and with the moisture in the 850-700 mb layer drying
out. So will expect that the le rain will diminish by the afternoon
as the sfc and 500 mb ridges build into the region. The ridges are
expected to remain through Friday, before they begin to move off to
the east. The next system will begin to push clouds into the region
late Friday night.

Primary forecast concerns... The models have been backing off the
timing of the rain with each run. So unless there is some major
shift back, there aren't any major concerns.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 249 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Extended (Friday through Tuesday)... The ECMWF and GFS both bring
rain into the region after 12z Sat and then take it out of here by
06z sun. Sunday, looks to be dry during the day, but rain is
expected to move into the region sometime late Sunday night (this
looks to be backing off the timing again). Monday, rain will be over
the region, and with a deep 500 mb trough that will move through and
lift out slowly on Tuesday. There looks to be a break in the rain
Tuesday night, before another shortwave trough moves through the
region Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 631 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
deepening surface low pressure over northern michigan will slide
across lake huron today. Additional showers will continue to
rotate back into the region this morning and persist throughout
much of the day with MVFR to ifr conditions persistent. Very
gusty nw-n winds will quickly spread across the terminal locations
this morning. Gusts of 30 to 40 knots are expected, particularly
for the NW lower michigan terminal sites. Slowly improving
conditions expected heading through tonight.

Marine
Issued at 249 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
another busy marine period as intensifying low pressure pivots
across northern lake huron this morning, exiting off into southeast
ontario tonight. Strong pressure gradient and surge of cold air
advection on western flank of this system will bring another round of
very gusty north to northwest winds to the big waters today into
this evening. Gale force wind gusts are expected, developing on
northern lake michigan quickly this morning, spreading into northern
lake huron this afternoon. High end small craft advisory conditions
expected across the remainder of the nearshore waters. Wind gusts
will gradually subside from west to east this evening into the early
overnight. High winds waves will once again result in lakeshore
flooding concerns along portions of the lake michigan shoreline
bordering northwest lower michigan.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood warning until 8 pm edt this evening for miz020-
021-025-026-031-099.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for lhz345-346.

Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt Thursday for
lhz347>349.

Lm... Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for lsz321-322.

Near term... mb
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... mb
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi34 min W 20 G 24 48°F 1000.7 hPa (-0.7)
45163 16 mi34 min W 18 G 21 49°F 52°F2 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi33 min WSW 21 48°F 1001 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi54 min WSW 7 G 13 47°F 1001 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi39 minSW 510.00 miOvercast48°F44°F87%1001.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCFS

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE4SE7S6S8S8SE6E6E6E8E8SE10
G17
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G15
SE7SE8SW3SW5W8W8SW6SW5SW6
1 day agoCalmSW5W8W11
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W6SW8SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS11
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W6W7CalmSW3SW4SW5SW5SW3SW3SW4S3SW3SW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.