Tuesday, July7, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:20PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 8:25 PM EDT (00:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 356 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the northeast in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of Thunderstorms and isolated showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable, then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the south after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202007080315;;479346 FZUS53 KDTX 071956 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 356 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-080315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 072343 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 743 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Wednesday) Issued at 403 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

. A few showers/storms into this evening .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. A few storms with gusty winds into this evening. A few thunderstorms possible again Wednesday afternoon.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: A more or less flattened/zonal flow pattern is in place from the northern Plains across the northern northern lakes region with some hint of subtle short-wave trough sliding eastward through the far western Great Lakes. Surface low pressure remains well north with a diffuse low level boundary that arcs down somewhere into northern Lower Michigan. Warm and somewhat moist conditions once again across northern Lower Michigan has lead to a decent build-up of afternoon Cu as well as spotty pop-up showers (no thunder yet) generally south of M-72/ east of I-75 in northern Lower and along a narrow convergence axis in eastern Upper Michigan near Lake Huron.

Subtle short-wave trough will pass through the northern lakes region this evening with little fanfare, followed by surface high pressure and short-wave ridging regaining ground across the region overnight into Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal. Afternoon pop-up shower/ thunderstorm chances.

Ongoing spotty showers and possibly some thunder will continue to percolate across the region through early evening before ending. Haven't seen any lightning strikes/flashes as of yet on lightning detection network plots. But can't rule it out over the next few hours given 500-1000 J/Kg MLCAPE values depicted across north central and northeast Lower Michigan on SPC mesoanalysis page. Low severe storm threat however, given a weaker flow regime. Quiet and mild conditions through the balance of the night although there will be some cloud cover drifting through later on . the remnants of upstream convection developing across central/ southern Wisconsin. Some patchy fog is possible as well.

Wednesday will be another warm and somewhat humid day again, along with some low end chances for showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon again. With weaker low level flow dominated by lake breezes pressing inland from either coast, any pop-up showers/thunder should be more contained across interior parts of the forecast area and particularly along/south of M-72 where better instability will be had. Severe storm threat will be low.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 403 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

. Very Warm and Muggy Weather Persists .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low. Although will need to keep an eye on stronger thunderstorm potential for Friday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Light southerly low-level flow and persistent upper-level ridging support continued very warm and muggy conditions into Thursday, along with spotty and mainly diurnally driven convection. However, by Thursday night into Friday, the upper- level wave currently pushing across the Pacific Northwest will push a cold front into the area.. The arrival of this wave/surface front should produce more organized showers/storms, especially on Friday. The wave will be shearing out as it tracks east-northeast, and will not be as strong by the time it arrives near the area. However, considering the air mass in place and current timing of the front, we'll need to keep an eye on the threat for stronger storms Friday.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 403 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

Cooler and less humid condtions return for this weekend in the wake of the cold front, but temperature readings are expected to remain above normal with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Upper-level ridging starts building back to begin the new work week, signaling a return to more very warm/humid conditions.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

High level convective blowoff expected to cross the taf sites this evening. Lingering low level moisture will likely bring MVFR to even IFR mist and fog during the early morning at KPLN and KMBL. Mist/fog will lift quickly Wednesday morning, with a developing relatively high based cumulus field expected during the afternoon. Light winds, with local lake breeze development Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 403 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Light winds/waves anticipated through at least Wednesday with no marine headlines. A bit stronger winds may develop on Thursday. But right now, winds/waves are expected to remain below headline criteria.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . PB LONG TERM . PB AVIATION . mb MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi25 min S 4.1 G 6 83°F 1011.9 hPa (-0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi45 min SE 4.1 G 8.9 81°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi45 min SSE 4.1 G 6 78°F 1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi30 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCFS

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W5SW8W8SW7S7N4W3CalmS5CalmSW4
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4W3S3SW5W5NW3E6E8E4E3E3
2 days agoCalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmS3S4SE6CalmCalmSE3NW4NE7E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.