Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 8:06PM Friday April 3, 2020 12:17 PM EDT (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 1:35PMMoonset 3:58AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 942 Am Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202004032115;;508508 FZUS53 KDTX 031342 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 942 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-032115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 031342 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 942 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 942 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Whole lot of nothing going on. Skinny surface ridge axis is directly overhead. Skies are mostly clear, other than a narrow band of mid-cloud poking into nw lower MI. You don't have to go too far to find active wx, with a band of showers in western WI just ahead of a surface cold front. But these will only slowly ease into the area beginning late tonight. Until then, plenty of sunshine, perhaps trending toward partly cloudy TVC/CAD and points west.

Max temps have been tweaked upward by a degree. A very light easterly synoptic component to the wind will keep ne lower MI cooler than other areas. Will be interesting to see if dew points can crash as hard as they did yesterday; for now have RH levels very slightly higher than yesterday in fire wx products. We have just a hint of mid-level moisture creeping in from the west, and a little stronger marine influence in the east.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Two closed upper level lows and their associated sfc low pressures were analyzed early this morning. One was in western Canada/PacNW, and the other stronger system is off the Atlantic coast. In between, and over nrn Michigan, was a narrow mid level ridge and associated sfc high pressure. The air mass was very dry, with just some mid and upper clouds grazing the Manistee area. The clear skies combined with light winds and dry air mass has led to good radiational cooling. Temperatures ranged through the 20s and lower 30s. Further upstream, low pressure and a cold front extended through the Plains, with areas of showers pushing out ahead into the Mississippi valley.

The sfc high pressure will slowly drift east of nrn Michigan today through tonight, making way for the upstream cold front to sneak into the region by late tonight. The air mass will remain quite dry today, with plenty of sunshine, and light winds will transition to lake breezes. Quiet day with highs ranging through the 50s, cooler along many lakeshores. The upstream cold front will press into the western Great Lakes tonight, with skies thickening in clouds. Forcing will actually be quite decent upstream today, with DPVA, WAA and upper divergence all in play. However, as the shortwave energy shears northward through the night, all three of the forcing mechanisms weaken with time, and the showers associated with the cold front are expected to weaken with time as well. Regardless, there will be a chance for showers developing after midnight, just had to slow down the arrival time. Lows tonight will range through the 30s.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain chances return Saturday AM

Pattern Synopsis:

A trough with extreme negative tilt will pivot across the N Great Lakes toward Hudson Bay on Saturday in the midst of upper-level ridging across the NE CONUS. A shortwave will also make its way from the Pacific NW eastward into the N Great Plains and absorb into the large-scale flow. A high amplitude trough off of the Pacific coast is expected to dig into California at the end of the weekend. At the surface, a once sharp cold front will become increasingly diffuse as it reaches our area Saturday morning. A weak cyclone is expected to translate east towards James Bay through the day as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes behind the front.

Forecast/Details:

Rain chances return across N MI Saturday morning with the arrival of the front from the west. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the front will bring a narrow axis of favorable moisture northward into the area heading into Saturday. Forecast soundings display saturated profiles with PWAT values around 0.75 inches across much of the area, which would be slightly higher than 90th percentile climatologically for this time of year. Rain showers are expected to slowly move across the state from W to E during the day with chances lasting into the overnight hours Saturday for eastern portions of the forecast area. Precip should be mainly light with amounts less than 0.25 inches for most. Below freezing temps are likely behind the front Saturday night into Sunday, with temps dropping below 32 F sooner across E upper. While all rain is anticipated across N lower, there is a chance for a transition to light snow/mix across E upper Saturday night with any lingering precip.

The warmest afternoon temps on Saturday will be across eastern portions of the area ahead of the front, reaching into the low/mid 50s for highs. Others will likely see highs in the upper 40s, which could materialize earlier in the day than normal as this would be before the cold front moves through. High temps are expected to warm back up into the 50s for most on Sunday underneath partly sunny skies. Some wind gusts near 20 mph are possible close to the Lake Michigan shoreline and adjacent coastal waters with the frontal passage Saturday morning/early afternoon. Aside from this, winds are expected to remain relatively light.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

Mostly zonal WNW upper-level flow is expected to hold across the Great Lakes for the first half of the week. The digging trough off of the west coast should become cut off from the main flow and sit over California for the majority of the period. A robust trough looks to make its way from W Canada into the Great Lakes mid-week, bringing off-and-on precip chances to the region. Plenty of uncertainty exists at this time, specifically with precip chances ahead of the trough, surface response, and the potential for any snow/mix. Details with this system will become more clear as next week approaches. Otherwise, above average temperatures are expected across the area through Wednesday before a potential cool down late week. Highs look to be in the 50s across N MI, possibly reaching above 60 across the southern counties on Tuesday. Guidance hints towards high temps dropping down into the low to mid 40s beginning on Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 615 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

High pressure in place today will slowly push east of the region tonight into Saturday, making way for a cold front and chance for showers Saturday. A good deal of sunshine today, with thickening and lowering clouds tonight. However, VFR conditions over the TAF period, maybe some MVFR CIGS across NW lower Michigan toward daybreak. Light winds are expected to develop into lake breezes this afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

High pressure in place today will slowly push east of the region tonight into Saturday, making way for a cold front and chance for showers Saturday. Light winds will turn to lake breezes this afternoon, before turning out of the NW through the day on Saturday. High pressure moves back in Sunday. No significant wind speeds through the weekend.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi18 min ENE 12 G 14 38°F 1020 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi38 min NE 9.9 G 11 38°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi38 min ENE 9.9 G 14 42°F 1021 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi23 minNNW 610.00 miFair49°F32°F53%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCFS

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6NW9NW7N6N5N7NW3Calm--CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N5N4
1 day agoN3N4N5NE4NE4N5NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W4
2 days agoN6N6N4N5N7N5N6N7N5N5N7N6N3N3CalmCalmN3CalmN3N4N4N5N4N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.