Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Littlejohn Island, ME

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:19PM Friday July 19, 2019 5:57 AM EDT (09:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 316 Am Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Today..SE winds up to 10 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the afternoon. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the evening.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 316 Am Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A warm front moves in from the west tonight with winds shifting to the west behind it for Saturday. A cold front drops down from the north on Sunday and crosses the gulf of maine Sunday night before stalling off the southern new england coastline for the next few days. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Littlejohn Island, ME
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location: 43.78, -70.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 190802
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
402 am edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
A hot and humid air mass will begin building into new hampshire
today, and spreading to maine on Saturday. Very hot and humid
conditions could lead to heat illness for those exposed to the
heat. The heat and humidity lingers on Sunday before a cold
front moves through and brings cooler and drier weather for next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
It's rare that dewpoint is the big sticking point in the forecast in
our area, but today is one of those days. The front that pushed
south yesterday has allowed us to drop to comfortable dewpoints in
the mid 50s across much of the region. The oppressive soup is
fairly close with the nyc area reporting dewpoints in the 70s.

With a front to our west expect the advection of the humid air
throughout the day. The issue is not if it gets here but when.

With weak northerly flow extending all the way into nj expect it
to take much of the day to surge the moisture back northwards.

A number of models want to push the humidity rapidly into the
region with upper 60s to 70 degree dewpoints reaching the
merrimack river valley by midday. Feel this is a bit aggressive
given the drier air in place now and the flow continuing to be
northerly through new england. Thus have gone for a slower
solution bringing the dewpoints to a more modest yet still
sticky mid 60s by peak heating.

While we wait for the sticky, hot will be quick to arrive as
sunny skies allow temperatures to soar right off the bat. Feel
confident with high temperatures in the 90s across the south,
with the usual cooling ocean effect on a south flow for the
midcoast eastwards.

For the heat index to reach the 95 heat advisory threshold we'd need
the moisture to arrive by the early afternoon, and with the slower
solution discussed above this puts the eastern hillsborough zone
just barely into heat advisory for this afternoon. With lower
confidence in todays issues and high confidence on Saturday have
opted to forgo a headline for today and focus on the weekend threat.

Nevertheless for anyone outside the difference between 94 and 96 is
purely academic as it will be hot.

For those in the northern portion of the area, along the canadian
border, heat will not be as much of an issue today however there is
a chance for afternoon thunderstorms. With descent shear expected to
approach the region, combined with the warm moist surface area there
is a chance for any storms that do form to become severe. A close
examination of forecast soundings shows a potential fly in the
ointment as 500mb temperatures warm enough to create a cap for
much of the time. Overall an isolated severe storm is possible
through the mountains.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
*** extremely hot and humid conditions through the weekend ***
Saturday the long awaited heat finally moves into the area. Aloft
850mb temperatures soar to over 20c and hold in that range through
the weekend. West to southwesterly flow will help to advect warm and
humid air into the region. That same west flow will keep the sea
breeze at bay allowing all but a stone's throw of the water to push
into the 90s. In the merrimack valley through nashua and manchester
expect to see temperatures reach 100 in a few locations. While this
change may break a psychological barrier it's within 1-2 degrees of
the prior forecast. In combination with the heat we'll have
humidity. The moisture that will push into the region today will be
fully present by tomorrow with dewpoints in the 70s expected across
southern new hampshire. For Saturday again have remained
someone moderate with the dewpoints as some lower rh air aloft in
the 700-850mb layer may be able to mix down just enough to drop the
dewpoint a few degrees at peak heating. This uncertainty is what has
led to the decision to hold onto the excessive heat watch. Heat
index of 105-108 are possible across the region with the most likely
zone being eastern hillsborough. Have expanded the watch to
include interior york where the west-southwest flow should help
to push temperatures up to near 100f. The heat is expected to
continue through the weekend and thus the excessive heat watch
has been expanded to cover through Sunday.

While only a few counties will see 105 heat index, everything south
of the mountains will easily reach 95f and thus a heat advisory has
been issued for all but the most northern zones. This advisory has
also been continued into Sunday although confidence is lower for
Sunday in kennebec, waldo, and southern somerset on Sunday.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Saturday night into Sunday a cold front will begin to drift
south from canada and into the white mountains and the western
maine mountains as a small short wave moves in from the west.

Shear and instability will be ample for storms with a few strong
ones possible, mainly in the north along the frontogenetic
forcing. With such high moisture and warm lower levels, very
heavy rainfall will occur under any storms. Hail will likely
melt before reaching the ground, but strong westerly flow
throughout the layer along with the heavy rain may result in
downward momentum transfer of stronger winds aloft in more
robust cells. Have included heavy rain and gusty winds in the
forecast.

Signals for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday are
very impressive despite cloud debris from the morning's
convection and less upper level support. Still, the the entire
region will see a chance of convection throughout the day, with
the coastal plain seeing chances increase in the afternoon and
evening as the front approaches the shore. Dew points will be
slightly higher on Sunday as opposed to Saturday as they pool
ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, so heavy
rain flash flooding will be the main concern, as well as gusty
winds once again.

As for the heat, temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s
Sunday for areas south of the mountains, and above 95f for
portions of southern nh and perhaps SW maine. Combined with the
slightly higher dew points this would result in widespread heat
advisories for areas south of the mountains, with hillsborough,
rockingham, and strafford counties in nh (and possibly york co
in maine) requiring excessive heat warnings. For these reasons
we have extended the excessive heat watch to include Sunday.

On Monday we will finally get a break from the heat with a
secondary frontal boundary bringing in drier and cooler air.

This will knock temperatures back into the 70s and 80s for highs
for the remainder of the work week. The front settles to our
south and may trigger a few showers, mainly over southern
sections. Tuesday will be the driest day of the week, with deep
troughing digging into the midwest and slowly shifting towards
new england and increasing rain chances for the remainder of the
work week.

Aviation 07z Friday through Tuesday
Short term... Some MVFR clouds linger across the very southern
portion of the cwa. Generally drier conditions through sunrise
but a few valleys may see a bit of fog with higher residual
moisture levels. Moisture will increase throughout the day
today, but remainVFR across the region.VFR will hold through
the weekend with a chance of thunderstorms in the moutnains.

Long term...VFR conditions expected as a hot and humid air mass
moves into the area. Some thunderstorms are possible in
northern areas Saturday evening and area wide on Sunday as a
cold front moves through, producing tempo MVFR conditions in
heavy rain.

Marine
Short term... Southerly flow will develop today as a front lifts
back northwards across the region. As it does a few gusts to
25kts are possible on the outer waters. High pressure will then
build in with hot and humid conditions for the weekend.

Long term... Light southwest flow continues through Sunday when a
cold front drops down from the northwest. This front drops south
of the area and stalls south of CAPE cod through early next
week.

Climate
High temperatures this weekend will be hot but are currently
forecast to stay below record levels at concord and may
approach the record at portland on Saturday. The record highs
are as follows:
jul 19
concord: 98 in 1977
portland: 95 in 2013
july 20
concord: 101 in 1977
portland: 96 in 1949
july 21
concord: 101 in 1977
portland: 99 in 1977

Equipment
The concord, nh ASOS remains out of service. At this time a
return to service date is unknown. During the outage, tafs will
continue to be issued for concord without amendments scheduled.

Climate data for concord will also be affected, although backup
sources may be used to fill in data after the fact.

The sugarloaf nwr transmitter is off the air until further
notice. This will be an extended outage as the tower, which was
severely damaged in a winter storm, is rebuilt.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Heat advisory from 11 am Saturday to 7 pm edt Sunday for
mez012>014-019>022-024>028.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
evening for mez018-023.

Nh... Heat advisory from 11 am Saturday to 7 pm edt Sunday for
nhz003>007-009-011.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
evening for nhz008-010-012>015.

Marine... None.

Near term... Curtis
short term... Curtis
long term... Hanes


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 12 mi63 min 62°F 61°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 18 mi67 min Calm G 1.9 61°F 61°F2 ft1011.7 hPa (-0.8)60°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 39 mi113 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 59°F 60°F2 ft1011.1 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 39 mi57 min NW 1.9 58°F 55°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 41 mi57 min N 1 G 1.9 58°F 62°F1012.6 hPa (-0.4)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi113 min N 1.9 G 1.9 63°F 64°F2 ft1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME15 mi66 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F55°F81%1012.6 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME22 mi61 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F55°F93%1013.5 hPa
Wiscasset Airport, ME23 mi64 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F54°F93%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE9NE9NE9NE9E5NE8E9E8E7SE10SE5S7S6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W4
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Tide / Current Tables for Chebeague Point, Great Chebeague Island, Maine
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Chebeague Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:10 AM EDT     9.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:29 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:47 PM EDT     8.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:33 PM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.29.89.585.83.31.30.20.21.33.25.47.38.58.786.44.22.31.31.22.13.96.1

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:47 AM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:56 AM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:26 PM EDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.80.90.80.70.5-0.1-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.60.80.80.80.70.2-0.3-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.