Sunrise 5:08 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:14 PM   Moonset 2:58 AM

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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1043 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog early this morning. A chance of showers early this morning, then numerous showers late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less early this morning. Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun night - NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mon - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ100 1043 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a slow moving area of low pressure passes east of the waters through tonight high pressure than gradually builds across the waters into early next week. Weak disturbances may pass near the waters mid- week, before a cold front approaches late week.

FXUS61 KGYX 181455 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1055 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure moving up the East Coast will spread light showers into Maine and eastern New Hampshire today. High pressure strengthens over the region early next week with dry conditions and well above normal temperatures. Scattered showers return by late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches and then crosses the region. An upper level trough will keep scattered showers over the region Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1055 AM UPDATE...Not too much new information to relay at this hour as showers continue to stream in from the Gulf of Maine.
While these are not the fastest moving showers, they are also very light. Gauge catches so far in areas that have seen numerous showers so far this morning are only around a tenth of an inch, so not expecting any hydro issues. Otherwise, this update served to load in latest observations and smooth trends in temps, dewpoints and winds through this morning.

Previous Update
Update...
Latest radar imagery and mesoscale models continue to show moisture arriving from the Gulf of Maine in the form of showers this morning. This precipitation will continue to retrograde from the coastal waters to much of our forecast area during the day and into this evening. Have upped pops for this morning to likely over the southern half of the forecast area.
Otherwise, just minor edits to the surface dew point, temperature and wind forecasts.

Seasonable temperatures today and Sunday will be replaced by a large ridge of high pressure and increasingly warm temperatures next week.

Prev Disc..
Mesoscale models continue to bring scattered showers in off the Gulf of Maine today around the periphery of an exiting trough of low pressure well southeast of our coastal waters. A second weakening trough will also approach from the west today. Most global models are now coming around to the chance of showers today, especially along and near the coastline. Will keep chance pops in the forecast for this morning, increasing to likely this afternoon. Confidence in the arrival of precipitation will continue to increase as bands of precipitation shown on latest composite 88D reflectivity imagery retrograde towards the coastline this morning.

There will be plenty of clouds in all areas today with the marine layer moving in off the Gulf of Maine. This onshore flow will keep the coastline on the chilly side with upper 50s and lower 60s and will allow for patchy fog early. Across the interior, it will be warmer with afternoon highs reaching the mid and upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Pops will be highest along the coast this evening before diminishing overnight as high pressure attempts to reassert itself over the region. Plenty of clouds will remain as well as patchy fog with the soupy maritime environment continuing.
Overnight lows will be fairly uniform over the region with mainly readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Sunday will be a rain-free day. A moist northeast flow will continue to bring clouds to the region, especially over southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. The most sunshine will be in New Hampshire. Western New Hampshire will be warming up with lower 70s expected in the Connecticut River Valley. The coolest portion of the region will continue to be the Midcoast which may remain in the 50s for highs.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A significant warm up is still on its way for next week especially across the interior where temperatures well into the 80s can be expected...

Overview: Two main pressure systems will influence conditions over the area through the long term. First will be high pressure that maintains quiet weather overhead for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Second is approaching low pressure and trough that could bring a round of widespread rainfall to the area as well as the chance for some thunderstorms into midweek. Temperatures are forecast to rise for early in the week, perhaps by 10 to 15 degrees above normal for southern portions of the area.

Details: Ridging sits over the area Sunday with more stable conditions. While precipitation isn’t expected, there will remain moisture in the low levels that is expected to leave much of the area cloudy. Can’t rule out drizzle considering some of the profiles looking saturated in the low levels, but any sort of lift is limited as well. Will hold off on drizzle wording for now, but would expect at least some patchy drizzle into the morning and perhaps again in the evening. These conditions will leave temperatures mild, but went slightly lower than the mean considering the chance for cloud cover. Some breaks will be possible on western side of the mountains, particularly in the afternoon, so left expected highs here closer to the mean (upper 60s to around 70). With clouds expected to remain overnight, lows are also mild falling to around 50.

Moisture layer will have thinned by the time Monday rolls around, and currently forecast thinning clouds into the afternoon. This should be a good start to a warming trend for early next week with highs pushing into the mid to upper 70s.
The warmer temps aren’t expected until Tuesday/Wednesday when return flow from exiting high really combines to push 850mb temps above 10C.

Well above normal temperatures are possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week. The area will be in between weather systems, with high pressure sliding east and incoming trough from the west. This should emphasize SW flow through much of the column, resulting in good WAA. This would mean temps pushing into the 80s for at least southern areas. NBM probabilities hint at temps perhaps exceeding 85 degrees up the CT River Valley and interior southern NH, but areal extent outside of those locations isn’t consistent.

Another topic for mid week will be the return of forcing, moisture, and instability. Surface low pressure is forecast to track up towards James Bay by Wednesday night, with an associated warm front lifting through the region and cold front exiting the eastern Great Lakes. This will create some favorable conditions for rounds of showers, but also some thunder. There remains differences in guidance to hone in on exact timing/impacts, but can say the environment will be more unsettled here especially on the heels of the warm/hot conditions. The front should pass off the coastal waters towards Friday morning, with slightly cooler temps into next weekend.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...Fog will dissipate this morning, but ceilings will also be lowering so improvements may only be made to MVFR. This will be the case through the day before skies only partially clear overnight Saturday. Again there will be a chance for localized fog, but ceilings will be trending toward VFR for Sunday.

Long Term...Ceiling restrictions expected Sunday, with mainly MVFR and some IFR for much of the area. These remain overnight into Monday morning, but begin to improve towards VFR into the afternoon. Low confidence in fog/vis restrictions at this time, but can't rule out drizzle Sunday. VFR conditions Tues into Wed, perhaps some overnight valley fog.

MARINE
Short Term...SCA conditions will continue as low pressure moving over the eastern waters pushes 5 ft swell into the area with winds not exceeding criteria. These elevated seas look to last through Saturday night and begin subsiding Sunday morning.
Winds will be primarily northeasterly through this period with gusts around 15-20 kts.

Long Term...Wave heights remain around 5 ft Sunday, but will be decreasing overnight into Monday as high pressure takes up residence. This should lead to sub-SCA impacts to wind/waves, but could also see some fog over water develop as warmer temperatures enter the region into early next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.

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Chebeague Point
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Sat -- 02:04 AM EDT     1.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM EDT     8.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:24 PM EDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:45 PM EDT     8.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chebeague Point, Great Chebeague Island, Maine, Tide feet

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Sat -- 12:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:19 AM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:37 PM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:49 PM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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