Saturday, February22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Freeport, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 5:19PM Saturday February 22, 2020 1:36 AM EST (06:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 559 Pm Est Fri Feb 21 2020
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain and snow.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain and snow likely.
ANZ100 559 Pm Est Fri Feb 21 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A ridge of high pressure will settle south of the waters this weekend with light to moderate westerly winds expected. Winds will turn southwest on Monday ahead of an approaching low pressure system that will arrive over the waters by the middle of next week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeport, ME
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location: 43.82, -70.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 220127 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 827 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain in control of the weather across northern New England through the weekend. Temperatures will begin moderating tonight with above normal temperatures continuing through the beginning of next week. By the middle and latter portions of next week, a series of weather systems will likely bring a period of unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. 830PM UPDATE . Updated again to bring low temperatures down a bit more in some of the cold spots. Berlin and Whitefield already closing in on the zero degree mark as of 8PM. With no clouds in sight, expect these great radiators to frost right through their low level dewpoint and approach 10 below zero. Other areas which have a good chance of seeing zero degrees again include Fryeburg, Lewiston, and Plymouth.

6PM UPDATE . There's not a cloud in the sky this evening. Regional satellite shows even upstream this is the case all the way to James Bay. Low level dewpoints remain quite dry . around zero degrees, and winds are even lighter at this hour than they were last night at this time. Thus expect excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight and northern valleys should fall to around zero. Dewpoints are a bit higher than last night and we are starting out a bit warmer as well, so it won't be quite as cold as last night. However, it will still be quite chilly. I've made adjustments to the forecast to reflect the idea of even colder temperatures. Even though some warm/moist advection begins aloft tonight, this should happen above the low level inversion and allow ground level to stay calm and cold.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION . High pressure was anchored over the south central states today, with the northeastern extent pushing into New England. Subsidence provided sunny skies along with light winds. After a cold start, temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 20s at most locations across NH and ME, with a few of the warmer spots in the upper 20s.

Given the very dry air mass /KGYX sounding from 21.12Z shows precipitable water values of 0.04 inches/ temperatures tonight will drop quickly under clear skies and light winds . however it won't be as cold as it was last night. Most spots will be in the 8 to 15 degree range for lows, as compared to many observations in the negative single digits last night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The center of the large high pressure system will shift east towards the SE CONUS on Saturday. This will allow for more downsloping westerly flow over northern New England, which will help bump temps up. In addition the colder air around T9 will be gradually eroding from the SW. Saturday's highs will be about 10 degrees warmer than today, and is part of a warming trend that will continue for several days.

A weak surface trough will shift into the White Mountains from Canada and move SE during the day Saturday. This will essentially make for increasing cloudiness for the foothills and mountains, and perhaps a few flurries along the international border. Elsewhere there will be little impact. Overnight lows will be in the teens and lower 20s Saturday night

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The long term forecast period will start off with a broad area of high pressure over the southeast US stretching into the western Atlantic. New England will be on the northwest periphery of this high with return flow allowing for several days of well above normal temperatures going into the first half of next week. Towards the middle of next week a split flow pattern at 500 mb will become more consolidated with a trough developing over the central US leading to a period of active weather the middle to second half of next week. There is chance during the second half next week that an impactful system will develop near the Mid-Atlantic and track towards New England.

The last several runs of deterministic and ensemble guidance have shown that a period of active weather is likely toward the middle to late next week as a deep 500 mb trough develops over the central US and moves eastward. There has been some uncertainty in the evolution of this trough leading to uncertainty in the strength and track of next week's potential one to two systems. The 12Z model suite is in fairly good agreement that the first system will be weak and pass to our south bringing only a chance of precipitation late Tuesday. A second system will follow Wednesday night into Friday morning with a fair amount of uncertainty in p-types. Ensemble solutions have the track of the second system ranging from well southeast of the 40/70 benchmark to the Great Lakes. Another factor complicating p-types is that temperatures early next will be quite mild for this time of year with highs approaching normal values for late March as opposed to late February.

The uncertainty in the extent of frozen p-types with the potential system late next week lies in three waves at the 500 mb level . all of which are currently in the RAOB data sparse Pacific. The first wave will be a northern stream short wave moving into British Columbia Saturday. This wave will race across southern Canada leading to a weak low passing to our NW Monday night. This low will have a cold front behind it and the question remains whether this cold front can push far enough south into our area ahead of our potential system(s). The next wave of interest is a closed 500 mb low that will also move onshore Saturday into southern California. This 500 mb low will slowly move into the Mississippi Valley Monday and open up as it does so. The third and final wave is currently south of the Aleutians and will move into the Pacific NW late Sunday night. This wave will dig down the Rockies Monday and interact with the opening closed low carving out the long wave trough over the central US Tuesday. Ensemble sensitivity experiments are putting emphasis on this third wave and the track of the primary low moving into our area sometime Wednesday night into Thursday. The idea is that the harder this third wave digs the more amplified the long wave trough becomes over the central US. This would place our area too far to the east for an all snow event with the primary low tracking to our west.

Bottom line is that there is potential for an impactful system Wednesday night into Friday. Current thinking is that this a scenario where a lot of things have to go "just right" to produce an all snow event with a snow in the mountains and rain along the coast a likely outcome. With a fair amount of uncertainty emphasis on the third wave I would be hesitant to latch onto any trends the next couple of days until this wave moves into the RAOB data dense network of North America sometime after 00Z Monday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term . Widespread VFR conditions will prevail with little in the way of cloud cover through this TAF cycle. Increasing SW flow aloft may bring some marginal LLWS conditions to mainly NH terminals late tonight into Saturday morning.

Long Term . VFR conditions are expected into early next with period of active weather likely from the middle to end of next week. A potentially strong low pressure system will likely bring restrictions around Thursday

MARINE. Short Term . A weak front crosses the waters tonight and winds and seas will increase somewhat in response. A SCA has been issued for the outer waters and Penobscot Bay beginning tonight and through early Saturday afternoon. Winds be westerly and light the remainder of Saturday into Sunday.

Long Term . Quiet on the waters into early next week. A period of active weather is expected to start the middle of next week with the potential for a strong low pressure system passing over New England bringing strong winds and elevated seas late Wednesday into Friday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ150>152-154.



NEAR TERM UPDATE . Kimble SHORT TERM . Hanes LONG TERM . Schroeter


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 14 mi54 min 26°F 37°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 20 mi46 min SW 25 G 29 31°F 40°F5 ft1020.1 hPa (-2.6)14°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 40 mi92 min WSW 23 G 29 34°F 42°F7 ft1019.9 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 41 mi96 min SW 6 24°F 5°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 42 mi48 min SW 6 G 11 25°F 39°F1021.8 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 48 mi92 min WSW 23 G 27 4 ft1022.6 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME16 mi45 minSW 810.00 miFair25°F3°F39%1020.9 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME19 mi40 minS 310.00 miFair10°F1°F67%1020.7 hPa
Wiscasset Airport, ME23 mi43 minSW 4 G 1810.00 miFair26°F7°F44%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N4N5N5N7NW3W5W6NW34S6S7SE7S5S9
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1 day agoN4N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W4NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for South Freeport, Casco Bay, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:10 AM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:28 AM EST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:18 PM EST     0.94 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:42 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:18 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:57 PM EST     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.3-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.10.40.80.90.90.90.5-0.2-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.40.10.60.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.