Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeport, ME

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 7:41PM Sunday August 18, 2019 2:53 AM EDT (06:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:28PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1233 Am Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Rest of tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Areas of fog.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds up to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..S winds up to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1233 Am Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A warm front will approach from the west tonight and Sunday and will lift north of the region Sunday night. Hot and humid weather will return on Monday and Monday night as a weak frontal boundary settles south through the region. Stalled frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night as it lifts back to the north. A stronger cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday and will slowly cross the region Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure will build in from the west for the end of the week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeport, ME
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location: 43.82, -70.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 180429
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1229 am edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms, some strong are expected this evening
and again Sunday afternoon, particularly across new hampshire.

Otherwise, very warm and humid conditions arrive Monday and last
into Wednesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday night
allowing for cooler and drier air to move in Thursday through
the rest of the week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
1225 am... Quick update timing the line of weakening east and
out of the CWA by 06z or so. I think once the line exits it
should be dry for the rest of a night, with the fog thickening
up a bit toward daybreak.

1015 pm update...

just a quick update to cancel the flash flood watch. Still some
showers over coos county but the threat for flash flooding is
quickly diminishing as showers move east.

905 pm update...

broken line of showers and storms continues to move east through
nh this evening and is slowly weakening as it does so as evident
by decreasing total lightning and warming cloud tops. As the
severe threat begins to quickly wane we are more concerned with
the flooding potential. So far the cells have been moving along
enough to prevent heavy rain from falling in one place for too
long and causing flooding to occur. Still keeping an eye out
for this possibility as the activity begins to lose some forward
steam and becomes more stratiform in nature.

Besides adjusting pops and removing thunder overnight, have
added drizzle for the coastal plain where low level moisture is
pooling.

620 pm update...

convection is not moving into new hampshire this evening with
cells developing ahead of the main line moving through ny and
vt. The main line has plenty of line and individual cells have
posed wind and hail threats at times. As the line continues to
move east and coalesces the damaging wind threat will increase.

Time of arrival tool has the cells ahead of the line arriving
within the next hour while the main line will arrive closer to 8
pm. Lapse rates and instability are less farther east and as
darkness ensues we will see convection struggle more as it
enters our cwa. Still will be concerned with extensive
lightning and heavy rain over campgrounds and the higher
terrain, as well as strong wind gusts.

Flash flood watch remains in place through tonight. Made a few
minor changes to the forecast, but at this time we are just
waiting for the precipitation to arrive.

Previous discussion...

for this afternoon and evening we'll have the tale of two cwas.

To the east the low stratus and marine layer which has held fast
all day will remain through the overnight. Expect patchy fog
onshore and denser fog over the immediate coastline as the
onshore flow continues to push the surface moisture up against
the foothills.

Across western new hampshire an very different weather regime
will reign. Here mid level morning cloud coverage has decreased
allowing for broken sunshine and the start of some diurnal
instability. To our west a convective line associated with an
upper level short wave is moving across upstate new york. This
line will cross the ct river around sunset. With the increased
sunshine in the region comes increasing instability with cape
values expected to exceed 2000 j kg as the line moves into the
region. The potential exists for a damaging wind threat into far
western nh if the convective line is able to maintain strength
through the mountains of vt, however the decreasing shear and
instability after sunset will keep the threat confined to just
an hour or so as it crosses the ct river.

The greater threat this evening will be for flash flooding.

Mesoscale models have continued to indicate the potential for
multiple storms to pass over the western nh mountains. With the
cloud layer motion aligned along the convective line, expect
multiple rounds of precipitation to be able to train over the
same locations, dropping up to 3-4" of rain. This would easily
exceed flash flood guidance. Further looking upstream we see
radar estimated rainfall rates of 2-3" hour with 1+" hr amounts
in the same airmass ahead of the line. With the mountains being
most susceptible to flash flooding, and likely filled with
hikers and campers feel the flash flood watch is appropriate and
it will remain in place for grafton and coos counties. As radar
trends further develop over the next several hours, expansion
southwards into sullivan and cheshire counties is possible.

Eastward expansion is unlikely as the marine airmass in place
will rapidly cut off any storms resulting in decaying elevated
convection east of the mountains after midnight.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 am Monday
After midnight expect the remains of the convection to decay and
progress eastwards through the area with a chance for scattered
showers. Low stratus and fog will remain entrenched. Further
west as the convection clears the low level moisture left by the
rainfall will likely result in a brief period of dense fog near
sunrise in the ct and possibly merrimack river valleys.

By sunrise Sunday, we prepare to repeat the same pattern all
over again. Expect the marine layer to hold on through at least
the middle of the morning on the coastal plain. To the west
another upper level short wave will dive south out of ontario
into western new york with widespread convective initiation in
the early afternoon. With slightly earlier timing the severe
threat for Sunday will be greater than this afternoon. Damaging
winds will be possible across new hampshire with the extent of
the threat largely determined by how much sunshine is able to
push through in the morning. With strong turning of the low
level winds as the easterly marine flow backs rapidly to
southwest into the cloud free sector expect some stronger
updrafts which will help to enhance storms.

With no change in airmass significant rain rates and flash
flooding will again be a concern tomorrow, especially in any
areas which receive a lot of rain this evening. The storm motion
doesn't look to align with the upper level forcing quite as
well as this evening, however a strong low level jet and higher
pwats makes flash flooding a threat again tomorrow.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Little change from the previous forecast. Warm and humid
conditions expected Monday and Tuesday, and likely into
Wednesday. Showers and storms could form at any time with subtle
low-amplitude short wave troughs moving through the mean
westerly flow. A substantial air mass change is expected will
come around Thursday when a strong cold front moves through the
region.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Short term... For sites along the coast, the conditions can be
summed up in two words: marine layer. Expect low ceilings and
fog to persist through the overnight and into tomorrow with
widespread lifr conditions. To the west, sunshine has broken
through a MVFR ceilings. Expect a line of convection to bring
heavy rain and thunderstorms to the ct river valley around
nightfall. Leb and hie should see lightning, while elsewhere
expect showers. Marine layer will keep the coast in ifr through
midday tomorrow when another round of convection will impact all
areas.

Long term... GenerallyVFR with areas of MVFR ceilings vsby in
showers and thunderstorms. Nighttime fog possible Monday night
through Wednesday night.

Marine
Short term... Fog and low stratus will remain over the gulf of
maine through the end of the weekend. Light easterly flow will
continue with winds and seas remaining below sca.

Long term... Scas may be needed on Wednesday but otherwise,
marine fog may be locally dense this weekend into early next
week.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... Cempa hanes
short term... Curtis
long term... Ekster
aviation... Curtis ekster
marine... Curtis ekster


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 14 mi59 min 65°F 60°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 20 mi63 min S 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 65°F3 ft1015.1 hPa (-1.3)67°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 40 mi109 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 60°F 61°F3 ft1014.8 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 41 mi53 min SSW 1 67°F 67°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 42 mi53 min Calm G 0 67°F 63°F1015.8 hPa (-0.9)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 48 mi109 min SE 5.8 G 5.8 66°F 66°F3 ft1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME16 mi2 hrsSSE 510.00 miOvercast67°F64°F93%1016.2 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME19 mi2 hrsS 52.00 miFog/Mist65°F64°F100%1017.7 hPa
Wiscasset Airport, ME23 mi2 hrsVar 33.00 miFog/Mist65°F64°F97%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE4--SE3CalmSE5--S5S5S6S8S6S8S9S9SE8SE6SE3CalmE4E5SE8S5Calm
1 day ago------E3E4E4------E9E9E9SE7S7SE8S8SE7SE6S6S5Calm--SE4--
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3NE3CalmCalmNE7E45E7E7E6E8S7S9S9S6--CalmS3--SW3Calm--

Tide / Current Tables for South Freeport, Casco Bay, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:10 AM EDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:28 PM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.70.90.80.70.50-0.6-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.30.10.50.80.90.80.60.3-0.2-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.