Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:20PM Saturday August 24, 2019 12:55 AM EDT (04:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:40PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 943 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201908240915;;110631 FZUS53 KDTX 240143 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 943 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-240915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI
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location: 43.84, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240341
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1141 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail with just a bit of lake stratus within
northeast flow off of lake huron overnight. Diurnal component to
clouds will increase coverage slightly, but still feel sct will hold
during the afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 338 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019
discussion...

the center of the broad surface high moving across lake superior and
southern ontario will continue to influence the region today while
an upper trough axis swings into the eastern great lakes by tonight.

A convergence zone that set up earlier in the day brought isolated
to scattered showers across the thumb. These were supported by
instability over the lakes as north to northwesterly flow brought
reinforced cooler air over the warmer waters. Slight chance for
scattered shower activity has mostly come to an end off lake huron.

Isolated shower development will remain possible for the next hour
or so across the thumb to the i-69 corridor as the hybrid lake breeze
releases inland. The loss of daytime heating will allow any shower
potential to diminish by the evening. The remainder of southeast
michigan will remain dry with a general cloud clearing trend into
tonight as the upper trough axis moves east. Mostly clear skies will
bring another cool night with overnight low temperatures in the upper
40s to low 50s for much of southeast michigan.

Upper ridging and broad surface high will transverse the great lakes
region leading to ideal late summer weather conditions through the
weekend. High temperatures to start the weekend will be slightly
below normal as thermal trough is maintained under cooler north and
easterly flow. Temperatures at 850 mb will be in the 6-8 degree c
range tomorrow resulting in highs in the low to mid 70s. Humidity
will also be low with dewpoints in the 50s. The departing high
pressure on Sunday will bring some subtle airmass modification with
south to southeasterly flow pushing some warmer temperatures into
lower michigan. High temperatures on Sunday rebound to the mid upper
70s to around 80 degrees.

Strengthening LLJ and warm front amplification ahead of an
approaching upper-level trough will increase heat and especially
humidity across SE mi Monday into Tuesday as dew points rise from
the 50s into the low to mid 60s (Monday) and upper-60s to lower-70s
(Tuesday). Will only see a slight uptick in temperatures as they
will be modulated by extensive cloud cover and rain
showers thunderstorms. Best moisture transport will set up across
the great lakes and will allow pw values of 1.50 - 1.75 inches to
build in for both Monday and Tuesday. Some models advertising pw up
to 2.00 inches, but will stay conservative as it lines up more with
ensemble means. On and off showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the warm front Monday with additional help from
embedded shortwaves. Last, breezy conditions will be possible Monday
as tightening pressure gradient sets up across SE mi.

Stacked low pressure system drifting eastward from manitoba into
ontario will drag a cold front across michigan late in the day on
Tuesday (need additional model runs to pinpoint timing) which will
bring the last of the rain and thunderstorms associated with the
humid airmass, before cooler and dry canadian air filters in behind
the front. Post-frontal airmass will bring relief from the humidity
and temperatures as highs in the 70s hold, with gusty conditions
possible as CAA increases mechanical mixing. Long range models are
advertising a second cold front projected to move across michigan
sometime between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, which would
be the next chance to see precipitation late next week.

Marine...

stable high pressure will broaden further this weekend over the
great lakes bringing about cooler and drier air. Winds are expected
to veer a bit further toward the NE to around 15 knots before
backing northerly and dropping below 10 knots overnight. Primary
marine concern over the next few hours is the dwindling threat for
waterspouts given the warm surface temperatures of lake huron which
have aided in the generation of enhanced instability. Lake effect
showers capable of producing waterspouts have greatly diminished in
coverage and will trend toward clearer conditions by 21z for
southern lake huron. NE winds will continue until Sunday after which
a SE flow pattern sets up through Monday, coinciding with an uptick
in speeds in the 15-20 knot range Monday afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the same period as high pressure remains in
control.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Aa am
marine... ... .Kk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 1 mi55 min NE 11 G 15 65°F 71°F1024.9 hPa (+1.2)54°F
KP58 15 mi64 min NE 12 65°F 1024 hPa54°F
PSCM4 30 mi55 min NE 11 G 14 65°F 1042.7 hPa (+1.4)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 33 mi35 min N 12 G 14 65°F 68°F1024.8 hPa54°F
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 37 mi55 min NNE 12 G 16 65°F 71°F3 ft1024.1 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 49 mi55 min NNE 11 G 15 65°F 1025.1 hPa (+1.4)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 51 mi75 min N 5.1 G 8 58°F 1025.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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N16
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N18
G23

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI15 mi3.1 hrsNNE 11 mi65°F53°F66%1023.1 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI18 mi3 hrsN 010.00 miFair53°F49°F89%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6N8N753CalmW3CalmNE11NE10N11N12N11
G15
N8N9N11NE11N8NE10N7N8NE11NE11NE12
1 day ago----------------------6NW754CalmN7N76335N73
2 days agoSW4SW5SW64W5W5W4W3CalmCalm6NW8SW9W8
G16
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W6NW4SW9N14----------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.