Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 060437 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1137 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

AVIATION.

Dry air feeding into the area on northwest flow from high pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes will promote VFR conditions with generally clear skies into Thursday. A weak cold front may bring just a bit of stratus/strato-cu Thursday evening. Northwest winds 8-12 knots will become more northerly and decrease late in the forecast.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 346 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

DISCUSSION .

Meridional surface ridge axis is in place from central Canada southward through the western Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley. Southeast Michigan resides within the influence of the surface anticyclone as cold air between 3.0 and 5.5 kft agl has brought on a very statically stable column. At first glance, jet axis overhead supports very little temperature advection through Sunday evening. Temperatures at 850mb are shown to range from roughly -7C to -11C through early Sunday. However, there are a couple of very subtle forcing mechanisms that will result in enough sfc-850mb cold air advection directly over Southeast Michigan that will hold off any meaningful moderating trends this weekend.

The first subtle forcing mechanism that will support caa and surface pressure rises tendency occurs tonight as well defined entrance region to upper level jet passes overhead. An increased component to upper level confluence is shown to result in increased anticyclonic flow trajectories. The net result is an increase in colder easterly trajectories aloft that times out well with a main lobe of upper level planetary vorticity sharpening across Lower Michigan. Low thickness supports a cold air mass. Carried to previous thinking that has temperatures generally a few degrees colder than today for much of the cwa. The exception was for Metro Detroit in the lower elevation areas with northwest surface wind. The second forcing mechanism that will support subsidence will be differential anticyclonic vorticity advection that will occur behind two vigorous absolute vorticity maximums Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Latest forecast suggest surface ridge axis will not push east of the area until Sunday night. Daytime highs Sunday are again expected to be limited to the 30s to possibly lower 40s.

Models support a dry surface warm front passage to begin the day Monday which will lead into an all out warm up. Latest NWP shows high amplitude and large wavelength H5-H3 ridge progressing right through the central Great Lakes. Mixing techniques suggest that highs reaching 60 degrees will be fairly east to attain especially across the southern CWA. The uncertainty is how inversions will mix out and to what high mixing heights reach. Mild air is expected to hang around Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest indications are that jet axis, shortwave energy and deeper moisture arrives along a cold front sometime late Wednesday and Thursday. Questions abound as to whether or not the boundary becomes stationary over the region.

MARINE .

Ridge of high pressure centered over northern Manitoba is stretched southeast across the Great Lakes. Stacked low pressure system over eastern Canada will wobble a bit westward this evening which will increase the pressure gradient across the eastern lakes while bringing a bit cooler air over the waters. This will excite the northwesterly winds which are already 25 to 30 knots resulting in a period of gales this evening across northern and central Lake Huron. Small craft advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Huron through Saturday for elevated winds and waves. Northwest winds remain slightly elevated but below gale force on Saturday as the high builds east across the lakes. Winds eases heading into Sunday as the high pressure drifts directly over the region. Dry conditions prevail through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER .

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LHZ361>363.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . DRK FIRE WX . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI	1 mi	44 min	NW 15 G 19	29°F	35°F		1021 hPa	14°F
KP58	15 mi	67 min	NW 17 G 30	30°F			1022.7 hPa	16°F
PSCM4	30 mi	62 min	NNW 14 G 19	30°F			1040 hPa (+1.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	49 mi	22 min	WNW 13 G 17	28°F			1023.7 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	51 mi	22 min	NW 8.9 G 15	27°F			1023 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

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Last 24hr

NW11 G18

NW10 G16

NW8 G11

NW7 G11

NW8 G12

NW9 G15

NW8 G12

NW9

NW11 G17

NW14 G19

NW13 G19

NW11 G18

NW17 G26

NW12 G21

NW14 G18

W10 G16

NW9 G18

NW11 G18

NW11 G18

NW9 G13

NW11 G18

NW19 G26

NW12 G18

NW16 G23

1 day ago

N22 G28

N24

NW19 G24

NW16 G21

NW14 G19

NW13 G18

N20 G27

N22 G30

N26

N20

N22 G28

N21 G26

N18 G25

N20 G26

N21

N20

N19

NW10 G14

NW10 G13

NW11

NW11 G16

W5 G8

NW12 G15

2 days ago

SW15 G27

W14 G17

SW12 G20

SW13 G17

SW11 G15

SW9 G13

W9 G13

W9

W9 G12

W8 G11

W10 G14

W8 G12

NW7

N6

N5

N5

NE5

N12

N8

N9

N13 G16

N11

N17

N21 G26

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Port Hope, MI	15 mi	67 min	NW 17 G 30	mi		30°F	16°F	56%	1022.7 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI	18 mi	67 min	NNW 15 G 21	10.00 mi	Fair	27°F	16°F	65%	1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

NW11 G24

NW14 G25

NW12 G22

NW12 G21

NW11 G22

NW12 G23

NW15 G23

NW13 G24

NW17 G23

NW17 G26

NW15 G23

NW13 G22

NW14 G23

NW11

NW10

NW10

NW11 G18

NW16 G23

NW14 G22

NW13 G27

NW13 G30

NW18 G32

NW19 G30

NW17 G30

1 day ago

N11 G20

N11 G19

NW12 G21

NW14 G26

NW13 G23

NW16 G24

N12 G24

N17 G28

N21 G30

N15 G25

N10 G25

N11 G26

N15 G25

N11 G22

N10 G20

N9 G20

N9 G19

N8 G16

N8 G18

N8 G17

NW10 G20

NW11 G23

NW12 G22

NW13 G24

2 days ago

W14 G24

SW12 G25

SW10 G20

SW10 G18

W10 G18

SW10 G17

SW9

SW7

W7

W7

W8

W4

NW4

NW4

Calm

Calm

NW3

N3

Calm

N5

N6

N8

N10 G18

N9 G18

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