Saturday, March6, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:26PM Saturday March 6, 2021 12:01 AM EST (05:01 UTC) Moonrise 2:25AMMoonset 11:25AM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 928 Pm Est Fri Mar 5 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming light and variable early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:202103061015;;535560 FZUS53 KDTX 060228 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 928 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-061015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI
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location: 43.84, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 060437 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1137 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

AVIATION.

Dry air feeding into the area on northwest flow from high pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes will promote VFR conditions with generally clear skies into Thursday. A weak cold front may bring just a bit of stratus/strato-cu Thursday evening. Northwest winds 8-12 knots will become more northerly and decrease late in the forecast.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 346 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

DISCUSSION .

Meridional surface ridge axis is in place from central Canada southward through the western Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley. Southeast Michigan resides within the influence of the surface anticyclone as cold air between 3.0 and 5.5 kft agl has brought on a very statically stable column. At first glance, jet axis overhead supports very little temperature advection through Sunday evening. Temperatures at 850mb are shown to range from roughly -7C to -11C through early Sunday. However, there are a couple of very subtle forcing mechanisms that will result in enough sfc-850mb cold air advection directly over Southeast Michigan that will hold off any meaningful moderating trends this weekend.

The first subtle forcing mechanism that will support caa and surface pressure rises tendency occurs tonight as well defined entrance region to upper level jet passes overhead. An increased component to upper level confluence is shown to result in increased anticyclonic flow trajectories. The net result is an increase in colder easterly trajectories aloft that times out well with a main lobe of upper level planetary vorticity sharpening across Lower Michigan. Low thickness supports a cold air mass. Carried to previous thinking that has temperatures generally a few degrees colder than today for much of the cwa. The exception was for Metro Detroit in the lower elevation areas with northwest surface wind. The second forcing mechanism that will support subsidence will be differential anticyclonic vorticity advection that will occur behind two vigorous absolute vorticity maximums Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Latest forecast suggest surface ridge axis will not push east of the area until Sunday night. Daytime highs Sunday are again expected to be limited to the 30s to possibly lower 40s.

Models support a dry surface warm front passage to begin the day Monday which will lead into an all out warm up. Latest NWP shows high amplitude and large wavelength H5-H3 ridge progressing right through the central Great Lakes. Mixing techniques suggest that highs reaching 60 degrees will be fairly east to attain especially across the southern CWA. The uncertainty is how inversions will mix out and to what high mixing heights reach. Mild air is expected to hang around Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest indications are that jet axis, shortwave energy and deeper moisture arrives along a cold front sometime late Wednesday and Thursday. Questions abound as to whether or not the boundary becomes stationary over the region.

MARINE .

Ridge of high pressure centered over northern Manitoba is stretched southeast across the Great Lakes. Stacked low pressure system over eastern Canada will wobble a bit westward this evening which will increase the pressure gradient across the eastern lakes while bringing a bit cooler air over the waters. This will excite the northwesterly winds which are already 25 to 30 knots resulting in a period of gales this evening across northern and central Lake Huron. Small craft advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Huron through Saturday for elevated winds and waves. Northwest winds remain slightly elevated but below gale force on Saturday as the high builds east across the lakes. Winds eases heading into Sunday as the high pressure drifts directly over the region. Dry conditions prevail through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER .

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LHZ361>363.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . DRK FIRE WX . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 1 mi44 min NW 15 G 19 29°F 35°F1021 hPa14°F
KP58 15 mi67 min NW 17 G 30 30°F 1022.7 hPa16°F
PSCM4 30 mi62 min NNW 14 G 19 30°F 1040 hPa (+1.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 49 mi22 min WNW 13 G 17 28°F 1023.7 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 51 mi22 min NW 8.9 G 15 27°F 1023 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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NW11
G18
NW10
G16
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G11
NW7
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G12
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G15
NW8
G12
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G17
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G26
NW12
G21
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NW11
G18
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G23
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N22
G28
N24
NW19
G24
NW16
G21
NW14
G19
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G18
N20
G27
N22
G30
N26
N20
N22
G28
N21
G26
N18
G25
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G26
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G14
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G16
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SW15
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G20
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SW11
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SW9
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NE5
N12
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N9
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G16
N11
N17
N21
G26

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI15 mi67 minNW 17 G 30 mi30°F16°F56%1022.7 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI18 mi67 minNNW 15 G 2110.00 miFair27°F16°F65%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
G24
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NW17
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NW11NW10NW10NW11
G18
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G23
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1 day agoN11
G20
N11
G19
NW12
G21
NW14
G26
NW13
G23
NW16
G24
N12
G24
N17
G28
N21
G30
N15
G25
N10
G25
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G26
N15
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G22
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G16
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G24
2 days agoW14
G24
SW12
G25
SW10
G20
SW10
G18
W10
G18
SW10
G17
SW9SW7W7W7W8W4NW4NW4CalmCalmNW3N3CalmN5N6N8N10
G18
N9
G18

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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