Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harbor Beach, MI

AVIATION

Warmer conditions within a gusty southwest flow will limit low cloud production tonight, ensuring clear skies hold across the lowest 10k ft. Gusts in excess of 25 knots expected at times throughout the night. Some potential for a period of MVFR stratus to emerge late morning/early afternoon on Sunday from PTK northward as a weak front boundary sags southward into the region. Confidence in occurrence remains rather low given the drier overall pattern for the day.
Outside of any stratus, simply some intervals of high cloud at times. Gustiness to prevailing southwest wind will ease with time.
Moisture will increase Sunday night, bringing a corresponding reduction of cloud base and increasing likelihood for light rain showers.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

DISCUSSION...

Snow has exited the Thumb region this afternoon, as the nose of stronger warm air advection continues to lift northeast of the area.
As the main surface low drops southeast across the Upper Great Lakes region overnight, the surface pressure gradient will continue to increase through this evening, maintaining a period of breezy southwest winds. Winds gusts are forecast to increase to around 30 to 35 mph this evening. Across the Thumb region, winds may be locally stronger especially for communities immediately along the Lake Huron shoreline. By early Sunday morning, the above mentioned low tracks east into Quebec and the pressure gradient will weaken. Thus, through the early morning hours on Sunday expect winds to gradually weaken.
We will find ourselves in between systems Sunday, leading to a pleasant day with a seasonable day with highs in the low to mid 40s.

Sunday night through Monday, we will see a gradual warming trend as two systems track towards the region. The western-most system tracking across the Northern Plains will help keep any stronger cold air advection bottled up well to our northwest. To our south, a weakening shortwave lifts northeast across the Ohio Valley. We expect to see a round light precipitation to move in with this souther-most system, mainly early morning through early afternoon on Monday. With the colder air bottled up well to our northwest, thermal profiles will remain warm enough to keep precipitation rain.

Tuesday through Wednesday, a cold front moves through the region ushering in another period of below normal temperatures. The timing of this cold front will have a big impact on temperatures for Tuesday and our precipitation chances. The GFS/GEFS continue to be the most aggressive with precipitation developing across the area on Tuesday/Tuesday night amidst a sharply baroclinic zone as the main longwave trough approaches from the west. While precipitation chances remain questionable for Tuesday/Tuesday night, as the main upper- level trough moves through the region and colder air spills back into the region, snow showers will return Wednesday/Thursday. The colder air mass that brings the return of lake effect showers will bring colder temperatures, with highs in the 20s by Thursday. This cold spell doesn't look to last long, as we warm back up by the end of the week and into next weekend and lake effect snow chances diminish across southeast Michigan.

MARINE...

Southwest gales are expected to develop earlier this afternoon and last a few hours longer into Sunday morning, thus Gale Warning headlines have been adjusted. Ensemble guidance continues to show high confidence in gales developing, with a small potential for southwest gales to approach (and possibly exceed) 40 knots with the Saginaw Bay and into the adjacent open waters where the funneling effect of southwest winds will be maximized. Small Craft Advisories also remain in effect for gusts of around 30 knots.

As the pressure gradient weakens on Sunday, gales diminish and west to northwest winds subside throughout the day. Southeast winds then develop ahead of the next surface low progged to track across Lake Superior on Monday. Will need to keep an eye on the northern half of Lake Huron for Monday, as easterly winds will increase ahead of the surface low. Right now, forecast winds remain below gales. As the low exits over Ontario and into Quebec by Tuesday, winds flip back around and become southwest.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ443.

Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ363-421-422-441-442- 462>464.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ444.