Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 4:36PM Monday December 16, 2019 4:42 AM PST (12:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 11:30AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 211 Am Pst Mon Dec 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am pst early this morning...
Today..S wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 12 seconds. Slight chance of rain early in the morning.
Tonight..SE wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft after midnight. W swell 8 to 9 ft at 15 seconds.
Tue..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 8 to 9 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. Mixed swell W 10 ft and sw 6 ft.
Wed..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 11 ft. Rain likely.
Wed night..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft...building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. W swell 9 to 10 ft...subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
Thu..S wind 30 kt...rising to gales 35 kt after midnight. Wind waves 12 to 14 ft. W swell 9 ft...building to 12 ft.
Fri..S gales 40 kt...easing to 30 kt. Wind waves 14 to 15 ft... Subsiding to 8 to 9 ft. Mixed swell W 11 to 12 ft and S 7 to 8 ft.
PZZ300 211 Am Pst Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..SEas will subside below advisory criteria by Sunrise. The improvement will be brief as another swell train arrives Tuesday. Southerly winds increase late Monday night into Tuesday, strongest in the outer waters through Wednesday morning. Thereafter, a series of fronts bring periods of moderate to strong southerly winds. In addition, a mix of high westerly and high and very choppy southerly swell and wind waves arrives Thursday, making for some very hazardous conditions Thursday into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 160516 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 916 PM PST Sun Dec 15 2019

DISCUSSION. No update this evening. Main overnight concern is extent of valley fog, general sky cover, and minimum temperatures. Latest GOES-17 Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows widespread valley fog continuing to develop over much of the the west side valleys and some east side valleys. These areas will not be cooling down a whole lot further. Some high cirrus is streaming in from the northwest which may thicken up overnight. West side valley minimums tonight are already shooting several degrees above NBM and this looks reasonable. East side in the clear readings are going to dip into the single digits and teens. Still looking Dry the next couple days. Stavish

AVIATION. For the 16/00Z TAFs . A mixture of MVFR/VFR across the area. Expecting fog/low clouds resulting in IFR/LIFR Cigs/Vis for west side valleys and the coast across S.W. Oregon and N. California. While at Klamath falls and the east side, a mixture of MVFR/IFR Cigs/Vis should develop. The lower conditions will likely be near water sources (lakes and marshes along the Cascades). At least partial terrain obscuration will last into the afternoon for all areas as well. The low Conditions will begin to break mid- morning/afternoon to VFR, with only a high cirrus deck by late afternoon. -miles

MARINE. Updated 715 PM PST Sunday, 15 December 2019 . Seas will continue to diminish tonight, finally subsiding below advisory criteria by sunrise Monday. This improvement will be short-lived, however, as another swell train moves into the waters Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. Southerly winds will increase late Monday night into Tuesday, strongest in the outer waters through Wednesday morning. Thereafter, a series of fronts will move through the waters bringing periods of moderate to strong southerly winds. In addition, a very broad and large swell originating from the Aleutian Islands move into the waters Thursday. This combined with strong southerly winds and steep wind driven seas will likely make for some very hazardous conditions Thursday into the weekend. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 237 PM PST Sun Dec 15 2019/

DISCUSSION . A rather quiet weather pattern is in store through at least the middle of the week. A warm front is lifting north of the area with not much more than high and mid level clouds moving in from the northwest. Low clouds are hanging tough in the some of the valleys west and east of the Cascades. This should break up late this afternoon, but it may end up being short lived with low clouds and patchy fog and freezing fog returning to west side valleys tonight. This is because the atmosphere will be stable as upper ridging builds over the area and existing low level moisture from recent precipitation. We could see a repeat of low clouds and fog and freezing fog for the similar areas Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Dry weather is expected Monday through Tuesday night. The upper ridge axis shifts east Monday night into Tuesday as an upper trough approaches from the west. Models vary on the evolution and details, but the general consensus is for the upper trough to split which will slow down the eastward progression and limit the amount of precipitation. Could not rule out a slight chance of rain over the marine waters Tuesday night, but inland areas are expected to remain dry.

The upper trough will move inland through northern California Wednesday with the best chance for precipitation remaining south of our area. However the could not rule out a chance of rain along the coast and Douglas County as a remnants of a frontal system move onshore. The floodgates are expected to open up late Wednesday night as an atmospheric river event starts to bring moderate to heavy rain to the coast. More on this will follow in the extended discussion below. -Petrucelli

LONG TERM . Wednesday night through Sunday . Models continue to show the arrival of a strengthening wave along an approaching cold front Wednesday night and Thursday. The front will become west to east oriented along the Oregon coast. This will result in an atmospheric river/heavy rain event over the Oregon. Precipitable water values with this system are forecast to be around 1.0 inches, which combined with southwest flow aloft will feed significant moisture into the front. Heavy to moderate rain is expected along the coast and over the coastal mountains as this system moves onshore Wednesday night and Thursday. Mainly moderate to light precipitation is expected to spread inland. Although, locally heavy precipitation is possible in some west side areas such as into Josephine and Douglas Counties.

The heaviest band of precipitation is forecast to shift northward on Friday as an upper trough offshore drops southward and a ridge develops over the West. Of note, models and ensembles show variability in the exact location of this band of heavy precipitation. The duration of how long this band of heavy precipitation is located over the CWA and how quickly and how far it shifts northward on Friday is a significant concern in determining the amount of rainfall received over the area. Given model variability, have leaned towards the ensembles mean for the forecast during the Friday period with heaviest precipitation focused just north of the CWA.

Also, during the Thursday through Friday night period, winds are expected to increase along the coast, over the mountains and into some valley locations. A strong northwest to southeast pressure gradient combined with a 50 to 65 kt 700 mb jet will result in the potential for strong and gusty winds in the Shasta Valley and Summer Lake area. Winds may also become strong and gusty in the southern Rogue Valley as well. At the coast, a strong 925 mb southern jet of around 60 to 70 kt is shown in the 12z GFS model. This would result in strong gusty winds over the coastal waters and into the coast.

On Saturday, the upper trough will will shift towards the area and the now south to north oriented front will move inland. This will result in a period of moderate to heavy precipitation across much of the area. Winds are expected to trend lower by Saturday evening and night as the front moves inland and to the east.

Snow is possible over the mountains during the storm period. Snow levels Wednesday night through Friday period are expected to initially start out around upper pass levels then rise some late on Thursday to around 5000 to 6000 feet. Snow levels lower a bit on Saturday with continued mountain impacts. Snow is then possible down to eastern valley floors Saturday night with the frontal passage.

On Sunday, expect continued chances for precipitation over the area as a shortwave moves around the upper trough and into the area. This may result in a mix of light to moderate rain and mountain/east side snow.

There is a potential for impacts from heavy rain, mountain snow and strong winds late this week. Variability remains in the model forecasts. So check back for updates and further details. -CC

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi43 min 52°F7 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi67 min SE 4.1 G 6 52°F1027.9 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi49 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast36°F33°F89%1028.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEUG

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmCalmSW4S4S6S6SW5SW54S5S5S4CalmS3SW4S5S5S4S4S7S5S5SW5
1 day agoS3SE5SE6SE4SE7SE6SE5S7SE6S4CalmS4S3CalmE4SE5E7E8CalmCalmNW5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE5NW3SE3SE7SE8SE6SE9SE8S3SW5CalmSE3CalmSW3NW4CalmCalmS3CalmS5SW6S4S6S8

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:22 AM PST     6.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:38 AM PST     2.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:31 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:08 PM PST     6.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:25 PM PST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.32.94.35.465.95.34.43.63.133.54.45.56.46.86.65.84.531.50.3-0.3-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:34 AM PST     6.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:49 AM PST     2.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:31 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:20 PM PST     6.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:36 PM PST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.12.64.15.466.15.64.73.83.133.44.25.46.46.96.86.14.93.41.80.5-0.2-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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