Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:39PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 2:38 AM PST (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 2:52PMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 208 Am Pst Wed Nov 25 2020
.hazardous seas warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 13 to 14 ft at 19 seconds...building to 16 to 17 ft at 17 seconds. Slight chance of tstms early in the morning. Showers through the day.
Tonight..NW wind 5 to 15 kt...backing to se 5 kt early in the morning. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 15 to 17 ft at 15 seconds. Showers likely.
Thu..S wind 5 kt...backing to E in the afternoon. Cape arago southward, se wind 5 kt...backing to ne in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 12 to 14 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu night..NE wind 5 kt except ne 5 to 15 kt cape arago southward. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 10 ft...subsiding to 8 ft and nw 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..NE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 ft...building to 9 to 10 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..W wind 5 kt...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 to 10 ft.
Sat..SE wind 5 kt...backing to N in the evening, then...veering to E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 9 to 10 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 kt...veering to s. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft. W swell 9 ft...subsiding to 6 ft and W 4 ft.
PZZ300 208 Am Pst Wed Nov 25 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Long period northwest swell will peak today, then subside later tonight. This swell will produce high surf and hazardous bar conditions. This weekend, light to moderate north winds are expected for most of the southern oregon coastal waters, as ridging forms aloft and a weak thermal trough sets up along the coastline. Another high and long period swell group will move into the waters around Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 250614 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1013 PM PST Tue Nov 24 2020

.Updated aviation discussion

DISCUSSION. 7:30 PM Satellite shows a cloud shield associated with the incoming front moving through southern Oregon and finally moving ashore in northern California. This front is poised to bring some precipitation to the area over the next few hours. A colder airmass is riding in behind this front, as shown by fun RBG satellite imagery from GOES 17, and a secondary impulse will bring showers Wednesday morning in this colder airmass with the lower snow levels to 3000 feet. The previous discussion highlights this features quite well.

In addition, will be taking a closer look at the ridging pattern beginning on Thursday in regards to the stagnation of air in many of our southern Oregon and northern California valleys into the weekend. Newest operational guidance is showing a low pressure system digging a bit farther south, and now bringing some decent precipitation to our area, breaking up the ridge. Yet, will want to make sure the ensemble guidance also suggests this trend (as well as keeping this frontal system extremely strong as it will need to break down the ridge) before fully jumping on board in the extended forecast.

Overall, no changes are needed; and a Winter Weather Advisory exists for the Cascades, a couple of the higher peaks in the Siskiyous including Mount Ashland, and some of the roads in these areas. Please see the WSWMFR for more information. -Schaaf

AVIATION. For the 25/06Z TAFS . A cold front is moving into the forecast area and spreading rain, mountain obscuration, and mainly VFR ceilings for now. Expect ceilings to lower tonight to MVFR behind the front in valleys west of the Cascades. Periods of MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon with continued mountain obscuration. East of the Cascades will be impacted by mountain obscuration and some MVFR conditions in valleys as the front moves through tonight and brings some snowfall to the area. BPN/Keene

MARINE. Updated 730 PM PST Tuesday 24 Nov 2020 . Gusty south winds are expected ahead of a cold front this evening, with winds sharply shifting to the northwest as it passes. Meanwhile, long period northwest swell is building into the coastal waters, peaking Wednesday at around 20 feet at 18 seconds. As a result, very hazardous bar conditions and heavy dangerous surf are expected beginning tonight, and continuing until swell subsides Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

This weekend, light to moderate north winds are expected for most of the southern Oregon coastal waters, as ridging forms aloft and a weak thermal trough sets up along the coastline. Periods of small craft advisory conditions are possible, mainly south of Cape Blanco. -BPN/Keene

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 256 PM PST Tue Nov 24 2020/

SHORT TERM . This Afternoon through Friday morning . Low clouds and fog remain locked under valley inversions this afternoon west of Medford across Josephine County, in the Scott Valley, and in the Goose Lake Basin across portions of Lakeview. Other locations have broken out of the low clouds and fog, but inversions are hanging on at most valley locations under light winds and high pressure moving through in the low to midlevels. It has warmed into the 50s at some valley areas that have been mostly cloud free this afternoon. For instance, it's 55 at both Mount Shasta City, CA and Roseburg, OR as of the writing of this discussion.

Meanwhile, the leading edge of a fairly healthy frontal system is making it's way across the Coast Range and into the Umpqua Basin as is evidenced by increasing clouds there. Rain has yet to reach the coast in measurable form, but Florence was reporting some drizzle at 235 PM PST.

This evening through Wednesday morning a healthy cold front will cross the forecast area bringing wetting precipitation in the form of rain and mid to upper elevation snow mainly to the Marble Mountains westward in California and from the Cascades westward in Oregon. Areas east of the Marble and Oregon Cascades, especially lower elevations east of Highway 97, are likely to end up with less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation, overall. Some mountainous areas east of the Marble and Cascades are likely to get a tenth to as much as three tenths of an inch of water. For the Cascades and Marbles westward water amounts will range from a tenth of an inch in the driest locations up to around and inch in the mountains. This is expected to equate to 6 to 12 inches of new snowfall from Lake of the Woods northward and 2 to 6 inches for areas above 4kft south of Lake of the Woods from the Cascades and Siskiyous westward. Gusty winds in the 20 to 40 mph should be expected in the mountains tonight and then in and near showers Wednesday, especially in the winter weather advisory area.

Altogether, the changes made to the Winter Weather Advisory for the Oregon Cascades and Siskiyous was to bump the start and end times out 3 hours to be 7 PM PST this evening and 1 AM PST Thursday morning, and to separate the snow amount wording in the product to specify areas from Lake of the Woods northward and south of there, as significant differences in amounts are expected.

Cooler, showery, unsettled weather is generally expected Wednesday, tapering off Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will also serve to clean the valley air mass before the next possible round of stagnation Thursday into the weekend. ~BTL

LONG TERM . Friday through Tuesday) . In general, the weather will be fairly quiet for this time of the year. There are some indications we could be in a prolonged period of dry weather. More on this to follow later in the discussion.

In the meantime, the holiday weekend (Friday through Sunday) is expected to stay dry. Upper ridging will result in a stable atmosphere. This along with a subsidence inversion and expected leftover moisture from tonight through Wednesday night will allow valley fog to form early Thursday evening and linger through the morning hours Friday, maybe into the early afternoon hours Friday before breaking up.

A weak shortwave will ride over the ridge Friday night into Saturday. At the same time a weakening front will dissipate as it moves into our forecast area. Therefore we will continue to remain dry. The operational models along with all of the individual ensemble members show no measurable precipitation. The one thing the front could do is limit the amount of fog and low clouds Saturday night into Sunday morning, but this will be highly dependent on the amount of cloud cover.

Sunday will be dry and if the cloud cover is thin or lacking from Saturday's dissipating front, we could be dealing with low clouds and patchy fog for many west side valley locations in the morning followed by some afternoon clearing.

Monday is the only day in which we have a chance of precipitation. the operational models differ with the placement and track of the low. For example, the GFS shows a split flow with the surface low moving south into northern California, while the ECMWF swings an upper trough in northern Oregon with a cold front moving through. The one thing that is common is precipitation should be limited and mainly along and west of the Cascades. Of note, several of the ECMWF individual ensemble members show little or no precipitation Monday through Monday night.

After Monday, there is sufficient evidence suggesting we'll be in a dry pattern that could last into the following weekend. The ECMWF ensemble means and GEFS (also an ensemble mean) show a similar solution with a deepening trough south of the Aleutians; ridge over the Pacific Northwest and troughing in the eastern and southeast part of the U.S. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Thursday for ORZ021-022. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for ORZ027-028.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi42 min 53°F11 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi62 min S 1.9 G 4.1 1020.9 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi44 minSSE 310.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEUG

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SW8S6SE8SE8S8S8SE11SE9S7S11S12S10S9S8S10SW7SW5SW5S5N5S5S7SE3
1 day agoS6S7S7S4S5S7S6S8S9S6S8S6S5S4SW6S5SE3SE3S3SW4S6SW5SW6SW6
2 days agoSW4SW5S5S6S4SW5SW6SW4SE4S4S6S4S3S4S5S5S8S5S9S8S8S8S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:37 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:16 AM PST     1.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:24 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:41 AM PST     6.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:53 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:26 PM PST     1.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:13 PM PST     5.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.61.91.51.72.33.44.55.66.36.465.13.92.81.91.41.522.93.94.754.9

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:37 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:27 AM PST     1.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:24 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:53 AM PST     6.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:54 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:37 PM PST     1.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:25 PM PST     5.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.821.61.62.23.24.45.56.36.66.25.44.2321.51.41.92.83.84.65.15.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.