Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:45PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 10:54 PM PDT (05:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:53AMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 801 Pm Pdt Tue May 26 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..N wind 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell W 4 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 19 seconds.
Wed..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell W 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell W 3 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and sw 2 ft.
Thu night..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 3 ft...building to 5 ft after midnight.
Fri..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 7 to 8 ft.
Fri night..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Sat..NW wind 5 kt...rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to N 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 6 ft and S 3 ft.
Sun..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 4 to 5 ft and S 3 ft.
PZZ300 801 Pm Pdt Tue May 26 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A thermal trough will persist through Friday, resulting in gusty north winds and steep wind driven seas, mostly south of cape blanco, until then. Warning level seas are possible Thursday night into Friday as a moderate west swell builds Thursday night. Conditions improve late Friday night into Saturday as weak low pressure moves into the waters Friday. Although relatively light winds will prevail through Sunday, expect plenty of showers Saturday into Sunday as the weather becomes active again.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 270407 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 907 PM PDT Tue May 26 2020

DISCUSSION. The difference in model solutions is still moderately high for the key Friday through Saturday period, with the hot and mainly dry preceding period still likely to lead to peak heating Friday and increased instability Friday night, then a wet and cooler (though still unstable) Saturday into early Sunday.

An update has been issued to update the probability of precipitation and forecast precipitation amounts tonight through Friday night. The changes themselves were mostly small, with this fine tuning warranted after analysis of the recently arrived 18Z GFS, 15Z SREF, and latest NBM . made in comparison with the 12Z ECMWF and 12Z ensemble data. The GFS remains noticeably faster, wetter, and more unstable than nearly all of the other data sources. As such, Friday afternoon and night PoPs were nudged downward (mainly in Lake and Modoc Counties), while Friday night precipitation amounts for western Siskiyou County to the Siskiyou Mountains were nudged higher.

Other changes were: to add some meager but mentionable possibility of showers this evening (with at least some virga likely already over south central Modoc County) and late Wednesday (near Tennant in Siskiyou County). Heating, instability, and moisture will just barely increase sufficiently on Thursday evening to include a slight chance of thunderstorms over a portion of the area. The SREF showed a focus for the higher terrain near the Fort Jones to Seiad Valley area and around Crater Lake East- Northeastward across northern portions of Klamath and Lake Counties. The most likely scenario is that there will not be any thunderstorms on Thursday evening, but a storm or 2 or 3 cannot be ruled out.

The big change will occur on Saturday with much cooler and wet weather likely. Please stay tuned for updates as we get closer to the weekend.

AVIATION. For the 27/00Z TAF Cycle . Over the coastal waters and along the coast . Isolated MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys over the coastal waters will increase in coverage and move onshore this evening, then burn back offshore Wednesday morning. The lower conditions will move back onshore Wednesday evening.

Over inland areas . VFR conditions will persist through Wednesday night.

MARINE. Updated 730 PM PDT Tuesday 26 May 2020 . A thermal trough will persist through Friday, resulting in gusty north winds and steep wind driven seas, mostly south of Cape Blanco, until then. Warning level seas are possible Thursday night into Friday as a moderate west swell builds Thursday night. Conditions improve late Friday night into Saturday as weak low pressure moves into the waters Friday. Although relatively light winds will prevail through Sunday, expect plenty of showers Saturday into Sunday as the weather becomes active again. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 253 PM PDT Tue May 26 2020/

DISCUSSION . An upper level ridge is centered over southern California. SW Oregon and northern California are in zonal flow behind a weak trough that moved through yesterday evening/last night. This is bringing dry, warm, tranquil weather to our area. Temperatures are running fairly similar to yesterday and that should put us solidly in the upper 80s for highs here in the Rogue Valley late this afternoon/evening. Satellite imagery is showing some cumulus development over the mountains, especially near and N/E of Crater Lake, but also near Medicine Lake. There's a pretty good cap, so these are mostly fair-weather cumulus and we're not expecting showers or thunder from them. Nearest showers could pop up SE of Modoc County, mainly eastern Lassen (CA) over to Washoe/Humboldt (NV) Counties this evening. Some low clouds/patchy fog will probably redevelop along the coast and into portions of the Coquille/Umpqua Valleys tonight into Wednesday morning.

The ridge will amplify into the Great Basin Wednesday through Friday with a closed low (currently out near 25N, 132W) gradually moving NNE toward the California coast. This will bring a stretch of very warm to hot weather for inland areas with gusty northerly breezes and marine air keeping the coast relatively cooler. Highs each day in the valleys west of the Cascades will range from the upper 80s to the mid 90s with the peak of the heat Thu/Fri. Wednesday should be dry, then some moisture and instability increase over the mountains in western Siskiyou County and along/east of the Cascades in northern Klamath/Lake Counties Thursday afternoon/evening. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm in these areas, so we added that to the forecast.

The closed low will move to a position near 33N, 125W on Friday. This could be the hottest day, especially if cloud cover remains minimal in advance of the low. Model 850 temps are forecast to be up around 23C. So, 96 or 97F seems like a plausible high here in Medford with limited cloud cover. We do expect some cumulus to get going in the afternoon with good instability focused near the western Siskiyou County mountains and up along the Cascades. Overall, a trigger is lacking, so activity should be isolated until later on.

As the low closed low continues to progress NNE, the pattern becomes favorable for a fairly widespread outbreak of showers and thunderstorms, especially focused along and west of the Cascades Friday night into Saturday. Wetting rains are likely in all areas but the deserts of the far east side. Model PWs west of the Cascades are in the 0.75-1.25 inch range as the low moves overhead Saturday, making this a very moist system for this time of year. GEFS/ECMWF ensemble members are suggesting widespread rain amounts of 0.50-1.50 inches. For those planning outdoor activities Saturday, you may want to begin to consider altering those plans. We still have a few days to make adjustments, but models have been pretty steadfast on this scenario, so we have higher than usual confidence in the forecast. It almost goes without saying that this system will bring an abrupt end to the heat/warmth with temperatures on Saturday 20-25 degrees lower than on Friday.

The upper trough will persist across the PacNW Sunday into early next week, so we'll continue with a chance of showers/thunder and high temperatures near or a few degrees below normal. -Spilde

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, 26 May 2020 . The main focus ahead will be the potential for thunderstorms Friday afternoon. This will come at a time where we are expecting afternoon temperatures to peak out with low to mid 90s common for most westside valleys and upper 80s to lower 90s for most eastside locations. The general consensus is for a cutoff upper low (currently centered near 25N/132W) to get drawn up northward starting Thursday as an upstream upper trough approaches from the west. The operational models and ensemble members shows the upper low becoming negatively tilted as it moves towards the Bay Area Friday night. If this pans out, we could be looking at thunderstorms developing as early as Friday afternoon and continuing into Friday night as mid level moisture and instability increase. Right now the exact timing and locations of thunderstorms will likely vary in the days to come, so stay tuned for the latest forecast and discussions.

The one piece of good news is there's a good bet for wetting rains to move into the area overnight Friday and lasting into Saturday. The chance for thunderstorms continue Saturday, but it may be more on the isolated side because of ample cloud cover and less unstable conditions.

Until then, mainly dry conditions are expected through Thursday with afternoon temperatures heating up Wednesday and Thursday. We'll have to keep a close watch on isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening for portions of the Cascades, eastside and south central Siskiyou County where instability may be sufficient enough to trigger convection. The GFS is more robust with the QPF coverage. The NAM not so much which is possible given there's little or no trigger.

General troughiness lingers into at least the early part of next week. Thus, we could be looking at a slight chance of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Sunday into next Tuesday, but confidence on this is not high at the moment. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

DW/BR-y


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi85 min 57°F7 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi79 min N 6 G 7 62°F1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi61 minN 710.00 miA Few Clouds60°F54°F80%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEUG

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N5N3N5NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N8N8N9N10
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1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N7N9N8N9N6N8N7N5N6N6
2 days agoN3------------CalmCalmSE3W3Calm4N6N6NE5CalmNE5N4NE7NE4NW4NW3N5

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:43 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:54 AM PDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:39 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:59 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:24 AM PDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:20 PM PDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:20 PM PDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.34.25.15.96.15.853.72.30.9-0.1-0.7-0.60.11.22.53.74.54.94.84.43.73.12.8

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:42 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:06 AM PDT     6.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:00 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:35 AM PDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM PDT     5.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:47 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:31 PM PDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.24.155.96.265.34.12.61.20.1-0.6-0.6-0.112.33.54.5554.63.93.22.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.