Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bath, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:03PM Friday December 13, 2019 8:08 PM EST (01:08 UTC) Moonrise 6:30PMMoonset 9:22AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 726 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
.gale warning in effect from 7 am est Saturday through late Sunday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely with a chance of drizzle this evening, then rain after midnight. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming se 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming sw 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Snow likely after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow likely.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 726 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure moving up the east coast will cause winds to become southeasterly and strengthen as the low moves north near the eastern new england coastline. Winds shift sharply to the west as the low passes and a cold front blows through Saturday evening. These westerly winds will likely reach gale force especially on Sunday. The next low pressure system tracks south of the gulf of maine on Tuesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bath, ME
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location: 43.92, -69.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 140027 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 727 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure developing along the East Coast will move north through New England on Saturday. Expect warm conditions and rain for most areas, though some light freezing rain is possible at the onset tonight. Once the low moves away a cold front will blow through and bring back colder conditions on a strong westerly wind on Sunday. The next low pressure system tracks near southern New England on Tuesday with a chance of wintry weather for New Hampshire and Maine.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Update .

Expanded the Winter Weather Advisories to include northernmost Cumberland, northern Androscoggin and northern Kennebec counties as well as portions of the mountains. Wet bulbing effect is still bringing temperatures to at or below 32 degrees this evening.

Precipitation continues to press northeastward with time. Maine batch of rain and mixed precipitation was over southern New Hampshire at 2340Z per latest radar loops. Meanwhile, drizzle with freezing drizzle continues over northern New Hampshire with pockets of snow or freezing drizzle over western Maine.

Temperatures will continue to slowly climb as the precipitation increases in intensity as we move through the night. Warm air will take its time, but eventually mix towards the surface as 00Z GYX sounding shows a pocket of warm air just above the surface.

Have made minor adjustments to temperatures, dew points and winds in the near term portion of the forecast. Earlier, the SPS was issued for pockets of freezing drizzle in Maine.

Prev Disc . ** Storm will move through the region tonight and Saturday bringing heavy rain south with mixed precip north ***

Cloud cover has steadily increased through the day as low pressure begins to develop off the southeast coast. Pressure falls were occuring through the Appalachians with good agreement for the low to track northwards and up the eastern seaboard and west of us through the Hudson and Champlain valleys.

Tonight expect light precip to develop well ahead of the low center as a jet max moves in aloft paired with a strong theta-E ridge at the surface, forcing moisture into our area. Isentropic lift begins in the low levels with the result being a few hours of drizzle or very light snow expected this afternoon before the whole depth of the atmosphere is able to saturate.

Some light snow has been reported and temperatures remain below freezing in areas of western New Hampshire. While the major ASOS across SW NH are now above freezing, the dewpoint remains in the 20s which gives a chance for some cooling and the wet bulb remains below freezing. Any icing will be quite light, but still impactful and so for this reason will go ahead and keep the Winter Weather Advisory in effect until the rain moves in later tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Saturday the rain will become heavy at times through the morning as the low intensifies and moves northwards. Good agreement on the timing of the heaviest precip between 12Z and 18Z. Trends with the short term guidance has been to increase precip amounts along the coast. Have trended this direction bringing the midcoast to around 2" without going as high as some of the 3"-4" high outliers. Strong frontogenesis oriented east west as the warm front lifts northwards through the morning may help to focus this precip along this front. If flash flooding occurs it will likely be at the intersection of this with the coast, which is already nicely contained within the Flash Flood watch.

Temperatures will be warm with 50 degrees possible along the coast. Have kept the temperatures a bit on the cold side of the model spread, but still puts the entire area well above freezing through the day. The rain will continue through the day on Saturday as the low deepens to the west and we remain in the warm sector.

Overnight Saturday the cold front will push through the region. Expect a brief changeover back to snow, possibly mixing with sleet through the mountains, however temperatures at the surface and aloft will drop at roughly the same time so limited sleet and ice is expected. Accumulations will be limited so no winter headlines are expected to be needed for this.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Expect cold advection on Sunday behind the cold front which will be surging eastward beneath the departing low. A tight pressure gradient between this departing low and the approaching high will lead to strong westerly winds. Winds at 850MB of near 50 KT suggest the potential for strong wind gusts especially considering the considerable cold advection through the day. In fact, temperatures may be falling as the day goes on. This top down cold advection leads to strong mixing within the lowest layer of the atmosphere which will allow much of these strong winds aloft to reach ground level. Current forecasts keep wind gusts just a bit below Wind Advisory levels (46 mph gusts), but would not be surprised to get a few gusts to that level. Winds will likely continue into the night Sunday night before the pressure gradient finally relaxes with high pressure arriving on Monday.

The next wave tracks out of the Ohio Valley on Monday and near southern New England on Tuesday. With our area remaining on the northern side of this low and a cold air mass in place, expect this wave to bring mostly snow to our area. However, there are some indications that some warmer air may lift north into the southern part of the area, at least aloft. This may make precipitation type a bit more dicey, but for now will keep the forecast tilted toward mostly snow until greater confidence exists in any warm layer aloft. The consensus on precipitation amounts at this point suggest up to 0.5 inch liquid equivalent in southern New Hampshire with lesser amounts further north into the cold air. It seems likely this will be a widespread advisory level snow event Monday night into Tuesday.

Seasonably cold weather continues behind this wave. Another much stronger shot of Arctic air arrives on Wednesday as a dry clipper system scoots by to our north and opens the door for this cold air to pour in behind it for the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term . Have included LLWS in all TAF for tonight into Saturday.

Cloud ceilings are already beginning to decrease to MVFR across southern New Hampshire as low pressure begins to develop off the southeast coast. Expect patchy freezing drizzle tonight becoming steadier rain after midnight. Fog combined with heavy rain will keep all terminals at IFR throughout the day on Saturday.

Long Term . Sunday will be windy but VFR at least on the coastal plain. MVFR conditions could linger in the mountains into Sunday night or early Monday. Wind gusts to 30 or 35 KT are likely mainly during the day Sunday, gradually diminishing into Monday. The next wave brings mostly snow to the region Monday night into Tuesday with southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine most likely affected.

MARINE. Short Term . Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of this system will peak at Gale force on Saturday. There will be a brief lull on Saturday afternoon before winds once again return to stronger Gales on Saturday night.

Long Term . Westerly gales are expected behind the front lasting at least through Sunday night. Winds gradually diminish as high pressure moves in on Monday.

HYDROLOGY. QPF/Flash flooding: QPF amounts have increased through the coastal plain with over 2" possible. With the frozen ground and small creeks and streams already running high from the last event expect this will result in some minor flooding through the coastal plain. With the heaviest rainfall in the 12-18Z time frame this would be the time for any Flash flooding if the very high rain rates are able to remain in one spot.

Rivers: Greatest threat for river flooding is across southern New Hampshire. Here around 2" of QPF is expected in addition to the melting of the remaining 1-2" of SWE still on the ground from the prior big snow event. The combination will lead to minor flooding on several rivers including the Suncook, Contoocook, Warner, and Piscataquog. This area remains in a Flood Watch.

Across the White mountains the rainfall totals will be lower - 1 to 1.5 inches, which will be able to be at least partially absorbed by the snowpack. Thus while there will be rises on the rivers significant flooding is not expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of increasing onshore winds and building wave action will coincide with relatively high astronomical tides Saturday afternoon. The astronomical tide Saturday afternoon in Portland is 10.6ft. At this point the addition of storm surge look to push water levels right to the minor flooding threshold, with building wave action likely to cause minor splashover and beach erosion in vulnerable areas.

Another aspect of this tide cycle will be that most of the rain will have already fallen by the time of high tide around noon. The timing of the high tide will cause runoff to drain more slowly from the marshes and tidal waterways, which could be enough to cause some minor flooding issues on roads and drainage areas within the tidal zone around the time of high tide.

Winds will turn offshore and waves will be subsiding in time for the Sunday high tide cycle, and coastal flooding issues are not expected at this time.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MEZ007-008-012-013-019>021. Flood Watch from 1 AM EST Saturday through Saturday evening for MEZ018>028. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for MEZ023-024. NH . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NHZ001>009-011-015. Flood Watch from 1 AM EST Saturday through Saturday evening for NHZ008>010-012>015. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for NHZ014. MARINE . Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.

JC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 28 mi124 min SSE 18 G 19 46°F 47°F5 ft1027.2 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 29 mi56 min 37°F 41°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 32 mi78 min SSE 16 G 19 45°F 44°F5 ft1026.3 hPa (-2.1)43°F
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 44 mi124 min SSE 14 G 16 44°F 4 ft1028 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME6 mi75 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist35°F33°F93%1028.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIWI

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW353W9
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2 days ago4Calm46CalmCalmCalmSW343Calm333CalmCalm3NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bath, Kennebec River, Maine
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Bath
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:16 AM EST     6.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:23 PM EST     7.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:03 PM EST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.36.15.33.92.41.10.40.51.42.94.86.47.37.26.34.72.91.1-0.1-0.6-0.212.84.6

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:03 AM EST     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:11 PM EST     1.10 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:10 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:31 PM EST     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.70.5-0-0.6-0.9-0.7-0.3-00.40.81.110.80.50.1-0.5-1-1-0.7-0.4-00.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.