Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wiscasset, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:04PM Saturday December 14, 2019 12:53 PM EST (17:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:33PMMoonset 10:18AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 1047 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale warning in effect through late Sunday night...
Rest of today..SE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming S 15 to 25 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. A chance of rain in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft, subsiding to 8 to 11 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft after midnight.
Mon..W winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow and rain in the evening, then snow and rain likely after midnight. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Snow and rain likely. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ100 1047 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure moving up the east coast will cause winds to become east-southeasterly today and strengthen as the low moves north near the eastern new england coastline. Winds shift sharply to the west as the low passes and a cold front blows through Saturday evening. These westerly winds will likely reach gale force especially on Sunday. The next low pressure system tracks south of the gulf of maine on Tuesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wiscasset, ME
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location: 43.93, -69.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 141554 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1054 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure developing along the East Coast will move north through New England today. Expect warmer conditions and moderate to heavy rain across the area. Once the low moves away, a cold front will push through and usher in colder weather on very gusty westerly wind Sunday. The next low pressure system tracks near southern New England on Tuesday with a chance of wintry weather for New Hampshire and Maine.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 1045 AM Update . Back edge of heavy rain is presently coming through New Hampshire at this hour with rapid rises shown on local river gauges. A few reports of road closures due to high water have been reported along the I95 corridor south of Portland this morning with moderate to heavy rain focus shifting now toward the Portland through MidCoast region as ESErly low level flow rides up and over the coastal front coincident with a crossing shortwave trough aloft.

700AM update . Impressive rain shield has spread across the forecast area this morning with moderate to heavy rain across southern and central areas. Rain rates are increasing as of the last hour and are totals along the coastal front are approaching 1"+ already. The front is hugging the coast and is intensifying rainfall from Portland down to Portsmouth. Have added southern Carroll to the Flood Watch as the reach of the heavier rain seems to include this area. Made a few changes to temperatures and QPF, otherwise will continue to monitor for possible flash flooding.

Previous discussion . Early this morning MSAS pressure analysis showed a front along the coast while farther south a warm front approached and is currently south of the Gulf of Maine. Aloft, vorticity was streaming into northern New England ahead of a strong wave moving out of the Deep South. At the surface low pressure was riding up the eastern seaboard. Warm air advection will continue ahead of the storm today as another low forms off the Jersey coast in response to strong pressure falls aloft.

Observation sites reported freezing drizzle and freezing rain overnight across portions of the interior and mountain valleys. Winter weather advisories were not extended as temperatures have been gradually coming up this morning in steady WAA. Some stronger bands of rain are currently rotating into southern NH. Models have increased storm total rainfall from 1-2" to more like 1.5-3" with most of this falling in southern NH and in a swath over the coastal plain . shadowing the coastal front which is where the Flood Watch remains in place through this evening. Expecting several rounds of moderate to heavy precipitation today into tonight. Likewise ensemble river forecasts have increased the number and magnitude of possible river flood points. To put it in perspective, GEFS QPF M-climate values are peaking near the all time max for this time frame, relative to their 30 year reforecasts . over southern NH and SW Maine especially.

Visibility will be reduced today in heavy rain and fog. Temperatures do however continue to creep up, with upper 30s/lower 40s across the mountains and some locations near the coast reaching 50 degrees as the coastal front moves inland.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Anomalous deep low pressure moves up the St. Lawrence River Valley tonight, with a triple point moving across NH as the attendant cold front surges northeast. Along the cold front expecting another batch of light to moderate rainfall through Sunday morning. Behind the cold front extremely cold air will arrive, changing any remaining precipitation over the higher terrain to snow showers. Expecting a few inches over the highest peaks.

The main concern Sunday will be the extremely gusty winds. Forecast soundings are indicating about 50 kts just off the deck, most of which will be able to mix to the ground in strong CAA. MOS guidance has 20 kts at several sites throughout the day, so have bumped up gusts a bit more, just shy of wind advisory criteria. Think the majority of of gusts will be around 35-40 mph. Along the coast and over the higher terrain it will be the windiest, and it is likely we will get scattered power outages.

Highs will only peak a couple degrees higher in the mountains compared to their lows . putting them just above freezing during the day Sunday. Over the coastal plain lower to mid 40s are expected with sunny to partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overall with a busy short term and moderate to heavy rainfall expected the extended forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus blend.

There was a bit more focus on the Mon night/Tue period . as that looks like the next shot at wintry precip. Still looking at likely precip . but low confidence in evolution. There continue to be some red flags . both with mid level warming possibly leading to mixed precip . and mid level drying leading to poor snow growth or drizzle/freezing drizzle. Given the RH fields on the 14 00z model suite. models may be overdoing QPF slightly . as it typically in dry slots. Still thinking a fairly uniform snowfall . around or just below advisory criteria. I suspect model guidance will begin to converge towards a solution over the course of the day . as S/WV trof moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest. Given that it is forecast to be ongoing around the Tue morning commute . this will be one to watch.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term . Moderate to heavy rain is falling at all the TAF sites this morning, and this will continue throughout the day and into the night as low pressure passes through the area. Conditions range from MVFR to IFR, and will vary throughout the day depending on if a rain band is overhead or not. In general though expect poor visibility and low ceilings due to precipitation and fog through tomorrow afternoon. Once a cold front comes through in mid morning, conditions will gradually improve, but winds gusting to 25-30 kts are likely at all sites. LLWS remains in the TAFs this morning before stronger winds can mix to the surface.

Long Term . VFR conditions prevail Sun night into Mon. Next system approaches from the SW Mon night. Conditions will quickly deteriorate to IFR or lower in SN as a band lifts SW to NE thru the forecast area overnight. Srn zones may see a brief mix at times Mon night . but confidence is low. Conditions quickly improve Tue to VFR again . except for the vicinity of HIE where upslope flow will keep some MVFR CIGs locally.

MARINE. Short Term . Gales begin later this morning and continue through the weekend. There will be a brief lull this afternoon before winds once again return to stronger gales on tonight.

Long Term . Gales Sun night will gradually diminish . with SCA conditions likely lingering into Mon afternoon. A weaker system will pass to the S of the waters Tue with more CAA in its wake for Wed. Another period of SCA conditions is expected then with offshore flow . with a chance at some gale force gusts outside the bays.

HYDROLOGY. QPF/Flash flooding: QPF amounts have increased through the coastal plain with up to 3" possible. With the frozen ground and small creeks and streams already running high from the last event, expect this will result in some minor flooding. With the heaviest rainfall in the 12-18Z time frame this would be the time for any flash flooding if the heavy precipitation is able to remain in one spot or pass over the same area in several batches.

Rivers: Greatest threat for river flooding is across southern New Hampshire. Here around 2" of QPF is expected in addition to the melting of the remaining 1-2" of SWE still on the ground from the prior big snow event. The combination will lead to minor flooding on several rivers including the Suncook, Contoocook, Warner, and Piscataquog. This area remains in a Flood Watch.

Across the White mountains the rainfall totals will be lower - 0.75 to 1.5 inches, which will be able to be at least partially absorbed by the snowpack. Thus while there will be rises on the rivers significant flooding is not expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of increasing onshore winds and building wave action will coincide with relatively high astronomical tides this afternoon. The astronomical tide this afternoon in Portland is 10.6 ft. At this point, the addition of storm surge is expected to push water levels right to or just over the minor flooding threshold, with building wave action likely to cause minor splash-over and beach erosion in vulnerable areas.

Another aspect of this tide cycle will be that most of the rain will have already fallen by the time of high tide around noon. The timing of the high tide will cause runoff to drain more slowly from the marshes and tidal waterways, which could be enough to cause some minor flooding issues on roads and drainage areas within the tidal zone around the time of high tide.

Winds will turn offshore and waves will be subsiding in time for the Sunday high tide cycle, and coastal flooding issues are not expected at this time.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ018>028. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ023-024. NH . Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NHZ006-008>010- 012>015. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ014. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.

SYNOPSIS . NEAR TERM . Hanes SHORT TERM . Hanes LONG TERM . Legro AVIATION . MARINE . HYDROLOGY . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 22 mi109 min ESE 18 G 21 50°F 47°F11 ft997.5 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 36 mi53 min 51°F 43°F
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 37 mi109 min ESE 21 G 27 48°F 8 ft999.8 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 38 mi63 min SE 14 G 18 51°F 46°F12 ft994.2 hPa (-7.7)51°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME2 mi60 minE 51.75 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist52°F50°F93%997 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIWI

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3E3CalmE3E76E7E10
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1 day agoNW946CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago3NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW353W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Cross River entrance, Sheepscot River, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current
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Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
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Sat -- 12:55 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:51 AM EST     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:19 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:35 AM EST     1.07 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:56 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:06 PM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0-0.5-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.20.4110.70.3-0-0.4-1-1.3-1.3-1-0.6-0.10.60.90.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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