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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 327 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Snow likely this morning, then snow showers early this afternoon. Rain showers with snow showers likely late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Rain Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Monday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 071141 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 641 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will slowly push through New York today, producing some light snow in the process. Accumulations will be minor, but there will be enough snow to impact the morning commute across Western NY. Notably milder air in its wake will overspread the region to end the week with temperatures climbing into the 50s by Saturday afternoon.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A narrow band of snow associated with mid-level warm air advection will move from west to east across the area through early afternoon. This combined with lake enhancement produced a burst of snow across the Buffalo metro area resulting in 2-3 inches accumulation. This band will weaken as it moves east, and IR satellite imagery shows the deeper moisture which was with the front will diminish across Western NY this morning. With cloud tops below the DGZ, lowered model QPF, POPs, and snow amounts considerably behind the warm front.

Additional accumulation in the Buffalo metro area should be a half inch or less this morning. There will also be light snow for the Rochester commute, with snowfall amounts only around an inch. Temperatures will be in the 32-34F range, so impacts on treated and well traveled roads will be on the lower side.
Precipitation may even change over to rain before ending as surface temps warm this morning.

By this afternoon, accumulating snows should be done for Western NY, but limited lake enhancement off Lake Ontario will maintain the risk for snow east of the lake this afternoon and evening. High res guidance suggests a meso-low may develop which would impact the Watertown area during this evening with the potential for a couple inches of snow.

Warm air advection then kicks in further tonight as shortwave ridging arrives from the west. Any lingering light snow/flurries on this evening will diminish and end overnight, last across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Temps will generally be steady given the warm air advection, likely staying at or above freezing across the lower elevations and only slightly below freezing for the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Fair weather for Friday and Friday night with a light southerly flow in the lower levels and axis of mid level ridge passing overhead.
This flow, along with building heights, will promote highs Friday well into the 40s with overnight lows remaining in the mid 30s to around 40F.

This ridge axis will likely make for one more dry day Saturday, one that will be quite mild for December standards with afternoon temperatures into the mid to upper 50s for the downslope lake plain, and low to mid 50s elsewhere. This ridge will hold off the approaching upstream trough and associated rain until Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A deep trough will advance from the nation's mid section to across our region Monday morning. This trough is taking on less of a negative tilt, with progressiveness across our region Sunday night and Monday. This will lower the over forecasted rainfall as well as potential snow amounts for the region.

Meanwhile this weekend anticyclonic flow off the Southeast coastline will be pushing Atlantic moisture inland across the Southeast. As the deepening trough aloft pushes towards the mid-Mississippi Valley it will also tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture, that combined with Atlantic moisture will make for deep moisture over our region Sunday and Sunday night.

Models still have uncertainty with the evolution of this pattern for the weekend, and surface winds will still be gusty, though now forecasted to possibly remain even below advisory levels with the deepening surface low now well to our north and west, and stronger LLJ within the warm sector of the mid latitude cyclone.

Deep, negatively tilted trough to our west, lift ahead of a wavy cold front passage Sunday afternoon and convergence along the nose of a strengthening 50 knot LLJ, a period of rain, that could be heavy at times, seems likely for Sunday and into Sunday night.
Highest QPF may end up along the southern Tug Hill, where the strengthening LLJ and upslope flow could bring 1 to 1.5 inches of rain before transitioning to snow with this event. Lesser rain amounts back to WNY, and within the downslope regions of the Saint Lawrence Valley...though even here amounts over 0.75 inches of rain are possible.

Mild temperatures that could reach towards mid 50s, especially eastern zones where the cold front while arrive later in the day Sunday. These values will fall back to around the freezing mark Sunday night behind the cold front.

Cold air advection Sunday night will transition the rain to snow, though by this time the axis of deeper moisture and lift aloft will be well to the east. Still several inches of snow will be possible Sunday night and early Monday, possibly more if the cold air filters in faster. Cold air advection Monday and Monday night may try to start a lake effect response. Any lake response will be minor as wind shear and loss of deeper synoptic moisture will hinder lake band development. Slight warming in the mid levels will end any lake response Tuesday, while also pushing afternoon temperatures towards 40F.

Another cold front will drop southward from Canada Tuesday night and Wednesday. A narrow uptick in moisture along this front may bring scattered light snow showers, while also continuing the threat of light lake effect snow showers.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A burst of snow associated with a warm front will continue to move from west to east today. This will lower vsby to 2SM or less at times at KROC and KART, while the steadiest snows have ended across Western NY. There still will be lingering IFR/MVFR cigs throughout the day.

The snow will gradually taper off this afternoon, although a few flurries or sprinkles will persist. Cloud cover will persist well into tonight, and CIGS will generally run MVFR in most areas, with some IFR still possible across higher terrain. Cigs should lift to VFR at most TAF sites late tonight as a weak surface ridge nudges into the area.

Outlook...
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow showers late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.

MARINE
As a warm front lifts northward on today. Winds and waves will increase which will lead to a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie from this morning into the early evening. Winds do not look as strong on Lake Ontario and the main flow will be directed offshore, so don't expect a need for a Small Craft Advisory on any Lake Ontario waters.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040- 041.

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