Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Henderson, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mild and muggy ahead of the cold front, we will also continue to see some showers or even a thunderstorm overnight, along with some fog in areas. Lows will be found in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The cold front slowly exits off to our east and southeast today, followed by the trough axis moving through region. That said...lingering moisture and building instability may support some showers or an isolated thunderstorm. This will especially be the case along convergence boundaries found along the lake plains south of Lake Ontario, and also far interior sections of the S. Tier into the Finger Lakes region. We should see lower humidity levels today, along with somewhat cooler mercury readings with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Weak surface based ridging builds into the region tonight with dry weather lasting through Tuesday. Heat and humidity will also begin to ramp back up on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, a few spots may break the 90F mark across the Genesee Valley and Lake Plains.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies Tuesday night. The trough will move east across the Northern Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night before merging with a low amplitude trough over southern Canada Thursday. An upper level ridge will build across the eastern seaboard and southwest flow will advect warmth and moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region.
Initially, dry weather will continue across the forecast area Tuesday night. A weak wave will move across the Ohio Valley Wednesday and ascent and moisture will move into the forecast area.
Showers and a few storms are possible with the greatest chance during peak heating across the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region. Hot and humid weather is anticipated Wednesday with heat indices 95-100F across the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and Finger Lakes region. Cloud cover may suppress heating, however there is medium confidence that heat indices will be reached.

A cold front with weak waves along it will approach the region from the northwest Wednesday night through Thursday night. Timing of these features is uncertain, however showers and a few storms will be possible given the soupy, warm airmass.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Model consensus shows the cold front moving through the region Friday, which will give relief to the warm and humid weather.
Showers and a few thunderstorms, potentially strong are possible ahead of the front Friday.

An area of high pressure is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region Saturday, before moving off the east coast Sunday. Models have been trending drier Saturday. Troughing moves back into the region Sunday with the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Showers and a thunderstorms will possible overnight which may cause flight restrictions at TAF sites, especially at KART. Low-level moisture will pool across the region with stratus and fog possible across interior Southern Tier (KJHW) and North Country through early this morning.

VFR flight conditions will be found across area terminals after stratus and fog dissipate. Again, there will be some showers or a thunderstorm possible today, which may impact KIAG to KROC and across interior section of the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region.

Tonight...VFR will prevail at all area terminals but there will be some limited fog across the Southern Tier. Low confidence of it impacting KJHW at this time.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A cold front will slowly work through the region today, a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will still be possible.

Otherwise...light winds and minimal wave action on the lakes today through midweek.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.