Monday, September28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Port, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 7:22PM Monday September 28, 2020 1:27 AM EDT (05:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:29PMMoonset 2:53AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 947 Pm Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers this evening, then showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots backing to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy with showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:202009280915;;470823 FZUS53 KDTX 280147 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-280915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Port, MI
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location: 43.93, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 280345 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 955 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Complex area of low pressure remains centered over Ontario and Western Quebec late this evening. Initial cold front has pushed just east of our CWA . with a secondary cold front still upstream over Wisconsin and Iowa. A couple of waves have developed along the initial cold front . with southerly flow ahead of these waves pulling deep moisture northward along and ahead of the front. Closer to home . narrow line of showers extending from our CWA thru Southern Lake Michigan has shown a downward trend in areal coverage and intensity with loss of limited daytime instability. However . expect areal coverage of showers will increase overnight . with widespread showers gradually expanding into much of our CWA as the waves track northward along the front pulling deep moisture into Michigan. Have made some modifications to POPs for the remainder of the night to better reflect latest near term model and observed trends. Temps will cool into the upper 40s and lower 50s overnight.

NEAR TERM. (Through Monday) Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

. Turning cooler with periods of showers .

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Mid and upper level flow regime taking on much more of a meridional appearance early this afternoon across NOAM, with deepening/digging northern Plains centered troughing bookended by east and west coast centered ridge axes. Northern Michigan centered squarely on the interface between upstream troughing and east coast ridging, with deep and fast southwest flow through the mid and upper levels. Shortwave responsible for yesterday's bout of showers and storms now well removed to our north across northern Ontario, with second positively tilted wave pivoting east into the northern Mississippi Valley. Weak cold front/surface trough stretching south from that Ontario wave, just now exiting off into northern Lake Huron. Not a whole lot of weather going on with this front, with driver of spotty light rain across northern Michigan and points southwest the result of deformation and developing elevated frontogenetical forcing ahead of that deepening upstream trough and embedded shortwave. Plenty of clouds and weak post-frontal cold advection has kept temperatures a touch cooler than those experienced the last few days, but current readings in the 60s and 70s still running several degrees above normal for this time of year.

Amplification process talked about above kicks into high gear tonight and Monday via strengthening upper level jets and additional shortwave energy set to dive south out of central Canada. Current northern Mississippi Valley wave makes slow progress east into the western Great Lakes, and when combined with deep amplification and upper jet support, sets the stage for more wet and eventually cooler weather for the northern Great Lakes in the coming days.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud/temperature trends and rain evolution through Monday.

Details:

Fgen and deformation will only increase with time tonight and Monday as lead wave pivots into the western Great Lakes and overhead upper level jet intensifies. Shower coverage/organization and intensity should increase accordingly, with these showers pivoting north across much of northern Michigan, especially by later tonight into Monday. Combination of persistent forcing and good moisture (precipitable water values in excess of an inch) argues for some decent rain totals by Monday evening. Still some question on where axis of greatest warm-side fgen response will reside, although trends support main axis of this forcing centering across northeast lower Michigan. Wouldn't be surprised to see rain amounts in excess of half an inch, with localized amounts near or even over an inch, by Monday evening where fgen response is maximized. Still plenty wet elsewhere, especially on Monday. Not seeing much evidence to support thunder, although suppose a few claps of thunder are possible across northeast lower Michigan where a few hundred joules/kg of elevated cape will reside. Temperatures will definitely trend cooler, with lows tonight dropping into the upper 40s to middle 50s, and highs Monday largely remaining in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Monday evening, well-defined troughing is expected to be positioned across the western Great Lakes with an attendant strengthening surface cyclone positioned to our east. This feature will ride northward through Monday night before trekking to near James Bay early Tuesday morning. This should allow for wrap around moisture to continue shower chances locally, most numerous/widespread Monday evening into the early overnight hours. Periods of unsettled weather anticipated to continue at times through the remainder of the short term forecast period - most notably Tuesday evening/night as another potent shortwaves slides to our north through larger scale parent troughing. Otherwise, cooling temperatures with predominately northwest flow is expected to prevail for much of the coming week, especially Thursday and beyond.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Shower chances through the forecast period.

Periods of unsettled weather is expected to be the rule across northern Michigan for much of this week, initially driven Monday night by aforementioned wrap around moisture combined with increase, albeit very marginal, over-lake instability. Shower coverage is expected to be most widespread east of I-75 . tied better to synoptic moisture/forcing. None the less, occasional showers anticipated west of the interstate as well along with falling temperatures as many fall into the mid-upper 40s for overnight lows.

A brief reprieve is expected across the bulk of the forecast area late Monday night into Tuesday as a pocket of drier air rotates overhead and low pressure to our east shifts well to north across James/Hudson Bay. While most locations will remain dry for the majority of this time frame, weak cold air advection may continue to bring marginal over-lake instability and low chances for showers across sections of northwest lower and eastern upper. Again, not expecting this to be too widespread or last very long in any single location, but certainly would expected some showers to dot the map in favored locations downwind of the big lakes through the day Tuesday. High temperatures expected to be within earshot of late September normals . ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s area-wide. Given strong upper troughing and closed upper-level low pressure nearby/overhead, wouldn't be surprised to hear some reports of waterspout development on the northern Great Lakes.

Tuesday evening through the first half of Tuesday night should feature in uptick in shower coverage once again given support aloft provided by a potent shortwave that's expected to dive into the region from the northwest, enhanced by continued increasing over- lake instability as H8 temps fall to the low single digits above zero promoting delta Ts in the 14-15 C range. While a decrease in precip coverage is anticipated by Wednesday morning, wouldn't be surprised to see occasional shower activity as additional weak perturbations race through progressive flow aloft, aided by continued instability over the Great Lakes. Wednesday's highs ranging from the low-mid 50s in the cooler/higher elevation spots to near 60 as you head toward the lakeshores.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Remaining showery with a period of much cooler temperatures are expected Thursday through the remainder of the long term forecast period as long-range guidance remains in agreement with strengthening ridging across the West Coast forcing downstream troughing over the Great Lakes. Shortwave energy combined with continued increasing over-lake instability should prove to be enough for at least lake effect rain showers, enhanced synoptically at times, along with cooler temperatures. Latest trends continue to suggest H8 temps falling to as low as -5 to -6 C or so by late in the period near Whitefish Point, which would be getting awfully close to being cold enough for wet snowflakes to mix in. This seems rather unlikely given a "mild" boundary layer suggesting all rain, but chances certainly aren't zero. High temps through the entirety of the extended period expected to range from the 40s to low 50s with overnight lows in the 30s for most.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Deep low pressure currently centered over Ontario will drop southward into the Great Lakes region overnight and Monday. Deep moisture will surge northward along and ahead of the associated cold front . which currently extends from the low thru Lower Michigan and into the Mid Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains. Narrow line of showers just behind the cold front will expand over the next 24 hours. Widespread showers will develop across all of Northern Lower Michigan by Monday morning and will continue to impact all of our TAF sites thru Monday night. VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and possibly IFR . with the worst conditions expected across NE Lower Michigan (APN) on Monday. Mainly light/variable winds overnight into Monday morning will become northerly at 10 to 15 kts by Monday afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Gusty winds into this evening (especially across northern Lake Michigan) will gradually subside overnight, with sub-advisory winds persisting through Monday. West winds become gusty once again Monday night into early Tuesday, likely producing more widespread small craft advisory conditions. Periods of showers are likely, especially later tonight and Monday. Temperatures will trend sharply cooler Monday and Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ341. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . MR MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 8 mi47 min NNW 8 G 8 63°F
45163 9 mi127 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 64°F 1 ft
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 17 mi27 min NNW 9.9 G 11 65°F 1006.8 hPa (+0.0)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 22 mi47 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 1007.8 hPa
KP58 34 mi36 min Calm 64°F 1005.2 hPa60°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 43 mi57 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 65°F 56°F1005.7 hPa62°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI26 mi32 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F61°F98%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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SW5SW5SW7SW4S4S4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW4SW4W5SW3SW6S8S8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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