Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reed City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:38PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:44 PM EDT (02:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:53PMMoonset 9:38AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering southwest 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..East winds around 10 knots veering southeast, then veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ849 Expires:201908200900;;493841 FZUS53 KGRR 200205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-200900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed City, MI
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location: 43.93, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 200001
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
801 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
- best chance for showers storms the next 7 days is tues
afternoon evening.

- isolated shower or storm possible this evening and again late
tonight.

- mainly dry weather expected from Wednesday evening through the
weekend.

- cooler weather settling in for the end of the week.

Discussion (this evening through next Monday)
issued at 330 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
instability continues to creep up this afternoon across the south,
where goes-16 satellite imagery shows moderate to towering cumulus.

We have maintained isolated (20 pct) chances for a shower or storm.

Confidence is not high in this occurring, but the MAX reflectivity
via the href ensemble does show the potential for a few showers or
storms.

Tonight, the main concern will be the reformation of some stratus
and fog. Model data suggests that the south (south of i-96) is most
prone to the fog stratus. Potential exists for some dense fog
towards btl and jxn.

Models show the chance for scattered showers and storms late tonight
across the southern half of the forecast area in a zone of moisture
transport. Not thinking this is a big threat and have opted to stay
dry along with neighboring offices for now. The main show will be
off to our west where a MCS is expected across the state of iowa.

The best chance for precipitation in the next 7 days will come
Tuesday afternoon and evening. The showers and storms tomorrow will
be forced by a shortwave dropping into the area from the northwest
that will be aided by the convective vort likely moving east out of
iowa early in the day. We are expecting an uptick in convection
during the afternoon. Wind fields and therefore shear is on the
light weak side. This could change if the convective vort out of
iowa pushes more east toward our area instead of southeast.

Instability is greater tomorrow with MUCAPE values likely eclipsing
2000 j kg. Any severe weather would be isolated and confined to core
collapses. Again, if the MCV (mesoscale convective vort) moves more
into our area the severe chances will increase.

Some small chances for precipitation will linger into Tuesday night
and Wednesday along and ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, dry
weather is expected Wednesday night through Sunday and potentially
Monday.

Temperatures cool behind the cold front with highs back into the 70s
for Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 800 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
a few isolated showers will be in the vicinity of btl lan jxn
through sunset, but the main concern (again) is the late night
fog and stratus potential - where and how dense widespread.

The old sfc frontal boundary is stalled near the mi in border
and the highest sfc dew pts are near the i-94 corridor. Best
chance of fog therefore seems to be at the azo btl jxn terminals
again and will have ifr or lower conditions for a few hours late
tonight and early Tuesday. Farther north at grr and lan went with
a few hours of MVFR.

After fog stratus lifts on Tuesday morning,VFR returns but a few
showers may develop after 18z. Can't rule out a TSTM either,
especially south and east of grr, but was not confident enough to
put that in the tafs yet.

Marine
Issued at 330 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
a light wind regime will bring quiet conditions out on the big lake
from the current time through Tuesday night. A weak pressure
gradient will be in place during this time frame. The next time
frame of concern will be on Wednesday when we will likely have north
winds increasing behind a cold front. This is the typical scenario
(advancing high from the northern plains) where our waves over
perform. The namnest normally does the best in these situations and
the glerl model ran off these winds is indicating the potential for
3-5 footers during the afternoon and evening (working south with
time down the shore). No headlines at this point. We will be
monitoring.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Duke
discussion... Duke
aviation... Meade
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 51 mi64 min E 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 1017.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi62 min ENE 1 G 1.9 67°F 62°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 56 mi64 min SE 1 G 2.9 66°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Big Rapids, Roben-Hood Airport, MI15 mi69 minW 810.00 miFair67°F60°F80%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRQB

Wind History from RQB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW5W5W6W5NW4N3CalmCalmCalmE5S5E4CalmSW6W7W7W6W6W7W4W10W3
1 day agoW4CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S7S9S11
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2 days agoS3NW9
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SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmW9W6W7W8W8NW8NW6W9W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.