Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Berlin, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:17PM Friday December 6, 2019 7:52 PM CST (01:52 UTC) Moonrise 2:48PMMoonset 2:15AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 706 Pm Cst Fri Dec 6 2019
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late evening and overnight. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Sunday..Southwest wind up to 30 knots easing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet early in the afternoon, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ643 Expires:201912070500;;964651 FZUS53 KMKX 070106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-070500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Berlin, WI
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location: 43.93, -89     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 062350 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 550 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

UPDATE. A vorticity maximum will move from srn Manitoba through the nrn Great Lakes for tnt-Sat. Mid level warm advection ahead of the aforementioned feature will bring mid level clouds into srn WI from MN for tnt into Sat AM. Sct-bkn high clouds then expected for the remainder of Sat. Sly winds and continued warm advection will boost temps to around 40F for Sat afternoon.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS). VFR conditions tnt-Sat. Mid level clouds for later this evening into Sat AM followed by sct-bkn200-250 for the remainder of Sat.


PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 238 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Saturday night . Forecast Confidence is High .

Surface high pressure over central IA this afternoon will continue to shift E/SE tonight. The clear skies and light winds overnight should allow temps to fall pretty quickly with lows bottoming out in the teens to lower 20s. If we do hold onto a slight northerly wind we could see temps over central WI fall into the middle teens due to the snow over northern and central WI/MN. Made some tweaks to Sheboygan and Fond du Lac counties to reflect slightly lower temps in these areas.

The high pushes east into the OH Valley for Saturday and winds switch to the south to southwest. A weak shortwave crossing the Dakotas Saturday into Sunday will result in an increase in southerly winds and WAA. A passing system over the norther Great Lakes could clip our area with mid/high level cloud cover but don't think this will have much of an impact on temps. Overnight lows Saturday into Sunday should be right around freezing mainly as a result of the increasing WAA. Shaping up to be a nice weekend before the bottom drops out in temps next week.

LONG TERM .

Sunday through Monday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Strong low-level flow will bring breezy conditions and some warmer temperatures to southern Wisconsin Sunday with highs ranging in the low to mid 40s. However, these conditions will be short-lived as an upper-level trough digs across the central CONUS and a surface low develops along the Colorado front range. Ahead of this system, low-level WAA collocated with diffluence from the 250mb jets sets up over Wisconsin/Illinois area and should provide enough lift to support increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances through Sunday evening. With the warmer temperatures, isolated to scattered drizzle/light rain is possible as early as late Sunday afternoon, but better chances will be Sunday night into Monday.

As the system pushes across the central Plains and approaches the southern Great Lakes Monday morning, precipitation will likely transition to snow/rain mix Monday morning and becoming mostly snow by Monday afternoon. Confidence is increasing in snow chances on Monday as the latest model runs are coming into better agreement with the track of the surface low. GFS/ECMWF/CMC are indicating the center of the low to track across northern Illinois, which supports light snow accumulations across most of our CWA. At this time anywhere from 1-2 inches of snow will be possible for areas north of I-94, while amounts generally less than 1 inch are possible for our southern areas. However, cannot rule out some locally higher amounts for our southern areas, especially if the low ends up tracking a bit further south as the NAM hints at. Nonetheless, expecting some light snow accumulations Monday across most of the area.

Tuesday through Friday . Forecast Confidence is High on Temperatures .

Precipitation will gradually diminish Monday night as a cold front pushes through and drier air settles into the area. Temperatures will steadily fall through the day on Tuesday and by Tuesday evening, frigid Arctic air filters into Wisconsin as a surface high builds across the northern Plains and pushes a reinforcing cold front through the Great Lakes region. Expect to see the coldest temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with overnight lows dipping into the single digits to around 0 degrees, while highs on Wednesday look to only top off in the single digits to low teens. Breezy northwesterly winds behind the reinforcing front are also expected, thus wind chills between -10 and -20 degrees will be possible late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Temperatures will gradually warm back up into the 20s and 30s for Thursday and Friday as another system looks to approach the Midwest. This system may bring another chance of precipitation by the weekend.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions are forecast at the terminals through the TAF period. Northerly winds around 10kts this afternoon/evening become light and variable overnight as high pressure passes to the south. The high kicks east on Saturday and winds switch back to the south to southwest. A system will pass across northern WI Sat/Sun and expect winds to ramp up just beyond the current TAF period.

MARINE .

High pressure passing to the south of Lake Michigan will result in decreasing winds and waves tonight. Winds shift to the south on Saturday ahead of an approaching system. This system is forecast to track across northern MN and Lake Superior Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring a period of strong winds to the entire lake with gale force winds possible. Waves could build to 10 to 13 feet on Sunday. Winds will be strongest across the northern half of the lake but gale force winds are still expected to impact the southern portion of the lake. Winds and waves begin to diminish Sunday night.

Another period of gusty winds is expected Monday night into Tuesday as a system passes through the southern portion of the lake. Then again on Wednesday with winds close to gale force. Much colder temps expected next week could result in freezing spray at times.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.



Update . Gehring Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine . Stumpf Saturday Night through Friday . Wagner


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 70 mi52 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 29°F 1028.8 hPa (+1.0)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 71 mi72 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 29°F 1029.1 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wautoma, Wautoma Municipal Airport, WI18 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair19°F12°F74%1028.9 hPa
Wittman Regional Airport, WI23 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair24°F17°F75%1029.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KY50

Wind History from Y50 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW7NW13
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1 day agoW5W8W6W6W4W3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmS3CalmS3CalmS5S6SE5S5SE3CalmCalmN3
2 days agoW8W9W11W10W8W10W11W12
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W7W9W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.