Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 5:53AM||Sunset 8:16PM||Saturday August 8, 2020 4:43 AM CDT (09:43 UTC)||Moonrise 10:52PM||Moonset 10:46AM||Illumination 80%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westfield, WIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMKX 080908 AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 408 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020
SHORT TERM. (Issued 408 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020)
Today and Tonight:
Ongoing MCV associated with a mid-level shortwave trough continues to push east-southeast across northern WI/upper MI early this morning. This system is progged to gradually extend further south into central WI, as it pushes eastward across the northwoods through the morning. The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity looks to remain to the north, but the question is will any make it this far south.
Models continue to show varying degrees of outcomes, which will affect the forecast through the period, but ultimately it winds down to a few scenarios. One scenario is where the southern portion of the MCV clips the northern part of the CWA later this morning, and diminishes with mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the afternoon, as the upper-level ridge's influence and capping takes control and limits further development. The latest 00z run of the synoptic models (GFS, NAM, and ECMWF) tend to favor this solution.
The next scenario is similar, but instead of remaining dry after the late morning activity diminishes, it progs additional convection to initiate along remnant outflow boundary later in the day. And given the ample MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, steep mid- level lapse rates, supple moisture with PWATs greater than 1.50 inches, a few strong to even severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with this outcome that is favored by a several of the CAMs (00z runs of the HRRR, HRW NSSL, and NAM nest).
Another scenario favored by the 00z run of the ARW and NNMB has the southern portion of the MCV pushing south and maintaining its structure through the late morning, as it taps into the conducive environment for convection as mentioned above. With this outcome the line of showers/storms looks to push across the entirety of southern WI and into northern IL through the early afternoon. However, current radar trends are a bit slower than these models suggests.
Lastly there are solutions like the 06z HRRR that keeps the MCV shower/storm activity completely north, with southern WI staying dry through most of the day. This seems less likely, given the initial model reflectivity is a bit off from the current radar trends.
Given the various outcomes and model differences, uncertainty remains high with today's forecast. However, tended to lean more in line with the first two scenarios for this package. Despite what solution actually materializes, still can expect to see increasing cloud coverage and shower and thunderstorm chances increase today. Any convection that lasts/develops later this morning/afternoon could limit temps, and the highs may be a few degrees off. Nevertheless, will continue to monitor the latest trends and update the forecast as needed.
LONG TERM. (Issued 408 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020)
Sunday through Monday Night:
Warm air advection kicks in on Sunday, especially in the afternoon, across the area. The southwesterly low level jet also points into the area and increases later on Sunday, lingering into Sunday night. Differential CVA from a passing 500 mb vorticity maximum late Sunday afternoon and evening also occurs across the region. These features should provide enough upward vertical motion to help erode the cap and bring chances for showers and storms in the afternoon/evening.
HRRR is trying to develop convection to the west and bring it into the area Sunday afternoon, though the NAM Nest keeps activity generally south of the area. Thus, some uncertainty lingers with how activity may evolve Sunday afternoon and evening.
Best chances for convection may be Sunday night, as a possible MCS may move eastward across northern and central Wisconsin, perhaps clipping the northern portions of the forecast area. This would be ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, which would cross the area Monday morning and early afternoon, exiting to the southeast late in the day. The front will continue to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms into Monday, before ending Monday evening. The main 500 mb vorticity maximum remains north of the area Monday into Monday evening.
There is a good amount of mean layer CAPE Sunday, with that CAPE becoming elevated Sunday night. Instability on Monday will depend on cloud cover from overnight convection. Deep layer 0 to 6 km bulk shear is rather weak Sunday, though it increases to 20 to 25 knots Sunday night into Monday.
Thus, any storms that can have sustained updrafts would pose a risk for isolated large hail and damaging winds, as well as locally heavy rainfall. SPC has area in marginal severe risk for Sunday/Sunday night. Monday looks more conditional for stronger/isolated severe storms, depending on cloud cover. Will message the strong/isolated severe risk for Sunday/Sunday night, and the uncertainty into Monday.
Highs in the upper 80s Sunday with dewpoints into the lower to middle 70s will bring heat index values into the middle 90s over most areas. Monday will be more conditional, depending on cloud cover. The southeast parts of the area would have the best chances at seeing heat index values into the middle 90s on Monday.
Tuesday through Friday:
500 mb flow starts out zonal on Tuesday across the region, then a ridge gradually builds over the Upper Midwest later in the week. In addition, a 500 mb low moves slowly eastward across Missouri into Indiana.
Surface high pressure should move east across the region Tuesday, then to the east Wednesday into the end of the week. The GFS is still trying to develop showers and storms with a quasi-stationary boundary over the area Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF keeps this activity just to the southwest of the area during this period.
GEFS plumes are showing small QPF amounts Wednesday onward across the area, so kept the chances/slight chances for showers/storms going for now. Still a decent amount of uncertainty here, so will see if ensembles can trend more one way or the other in later forecasts.
Less humid but still warm temperatures are forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday, before higher dewpoints return later in the week.
AVIATION. (Issued 408 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020)
For the 12Z TAFs:
Mid to high level clouds are gradually increasing this morning from the storms making their way across northern WI. However, expecting mostly VFR conditions today, with breezy southerly flow. Forecast remains uncertain if any shower/storm activity from the northern system will make it into central and southern WI this morning, or if additional storms may develop later this afternoon. However, there will be chances today and if any showers/storms do develop, it would likely limit visibilities and lower ceilings. Still not confident enough to have any mentions of it at this time.
MARINE. (Issued 408 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020)
Will likely see remnants from this morning's storms push east across the northern tier of Lake Michigan later this morning. Otherwise, an area of high pressure to the east of Lake Michigan will continue to slowly push east across the eastern Great Lakes today. Lighter southerly winds this morning are expected to become breezy through the day, as warmer and more humid air moves into the region, and a tightening pressure gradient develops ahead of a cold front draping across the Upper Midwest. This will result in Small Craft Advisory conditions for the nearshore waters, starting later this morning and continuing through the evening.
Stronger winds are expected for the open waters of Lake Michigan, with winds likely to gust to around 30 knots across the northern half. Could even see a few gusts nearing gale force later this morning and afternoon. In addition to the stronger winds, wave heights will build across the lake today, especially for the northern portions. Then, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase for the later half of the weekend into Monday, as a cold front pushes southeast through the region.
BEACHES. (Issued 408 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020)
Gusty southerly winds will build high waves along the lakeshore from Port Washington and northward through the Sheboygan area today. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect this afternoon and evening, due to a high swim risk.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement . WIZ052-WIZ060 . 1 PM Saturday to midnight Sunday.
LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 . 10 AM Saturday to midnight Sunday.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI||91 mi||63 min||SSW 2.9 G 5.1||68°F||1020.7 hPa|
|SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI||93 mi||43 min||SSW 12 G 13||70°F|
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Wautoma, Wautoma Municipal Airport, WI||10 mi||47 min||SSE 5||10.00 mi||Thunderstorm in Vicinity||67°F||61°F||81%||1017.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KY50
Wind History from Y50 (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SW||Calm||S||SE||SW||S||S||S||SW||SE||Calm||Calm||SE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||N||NW||NE||N||N||SW||W||W||SW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (5,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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