Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Westfield, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:55PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 6:16 PM CST (00:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:45AMMoonset 3:50PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 506 Pm Cst Wed Jan 22 2020
Tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of rain and snow late in the evening. Chance of snow and rain after midnight, then snow early in the morning. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday..South wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Rain and snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing east early in the morning. Snow through around midnight. Rain through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots backing northeast late in the afternoon. Snow in the morning. Rain through the day. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ643 Expires:202001230500;;362004 FZUS53 KMKX 222306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-230500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westfield, WI
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location: 43.93, -89.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 222329 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 529 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

UPDATE.

Light snow is making very slow progress into the area from the west. Should see some light flakes in the Madison area in the next few hours, with snow reaching the Milwaukee area well after midnight. Around an inch of slushy accumulation is expected for most of the area by daybreak.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS).

A long duration light snow event is expected to begin later this evening, continuing into Friday. For tonight, expect light snow to gradually move into the area from the west this evening and overnight. Snow will not be continuous, but will be more showery in nature. Visibility restrictions will generally be between 2 and 4 miles, though could drop below 2 miles for brief periods of time. Ceilings will fall as well, eventually falling to IFR with the snow.

Winds will be generally light from the south and southeast through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 344 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight And Thursday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High.

Based on the latest satellite imagery, the first of a series of mid-level shortwave troughs is working its ways to the northeast across IA this afternoon, and will approach MN/WI this evening. Better, albeit fairly weak, forcing associated with upper-level diffluence, 500mb dCVA, and 850mb WAA will align over southern WI through this evening.

However, a low-level dry layer is progged to hold on for the rest of the afternoon. This will likely delay the onset of precip a bit, but as persistent southerly winds continue to advect moisture into the area, moistening the environment through the evening. Saturation, combined with the thermal profile remaining below freezing through the dendritic growth zone, will support light snow through the short-term period.

Hi-res models depict a similar onset of precip and current thinking is light snow will begin sometime after 00z out west and spread east through the evening. However, can't rule out a brief period of light freezing drizzle on the initial onset of precip, but confidence remains low.

Nonetheless, with low snow ratios around 10:1 and low QPF, not expecting too much in the way of accumulations through Thursday. Even though running on the lower end of things (closer to the 10th and 25th percentiles) for QPF and snowfall amounts, generally thinking snow totals through Thursday afternoon will range from around 1 to 2 inches across most of the area. However, this will be enough snow to cause reduced visibilities and few slicks spots out on the roads overnight and tomorrow. Otherwise, expect cloudy skies to persist with lows tonight dipping into the upper 20s, and highs Thursday in the low to mid 30s.

Thursday Night Through Saturday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models continue to show a closed 500 mb low moving from far eastern Kansas to southwest/west central Indiana Thursday night and Friday, then moving east into Ohio Friday night into Saturday. Low pressure at the surface shifts from northern Missouri to northern/central Indiana Thursday night into Friday, then shifting into lower Michigan and Lake Huron Friday night into Saturday. Steady warm air advection lingers Thursday night into Friday across the area, with modest upward vertical motion. This will continue to bring a steady light snow to the area.

Some frontogenesis may occur in the low to mid levels Friday afternoon and night, mainly in eastern parts of the area. In addition, the models have trended further north with the surface low track, and have increased its strength somewhat. This may bring higher snow totals to eastern parts of the area later Friday into Friday evening. Will need to watch trends for this period for any possible headlines and impacts.

Thus, continued high PoPs for light snow through Friday night/Saturday morning. Total QPF and snow amounts through Saturday morning are around the 50th percentile per model certainty, and used the 25th/75th percentile ranges for graphical messaging.

Lowered temperatures a bit on Friday and Saturday closer to the raw model output. There may still be some mix of light rain and light snow Friday into Friday evening, which may limit snow amounts a bit.

Will message the second round of light snow for Thursday night into Friday morning, which may bring an inch or so. The last round Friday afternoon into Saturday morning could bring a few inches, highest in the far eastern parts of the area. This is where the biggest impacts may occur. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts.

LONG TERM .

Saturday Night Through Monday Night . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Northwest flow at 500 mb lingers the rest of the weekend into early next week. This should bring dry conditions to the area for the most part, with temperatures remaining a little above seasonal normals.

Tuesday Through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are trying to bring a well developed low pressure system northeastward toward the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. There are some timing and placement differences with features this far out, so will leave blended model PoPs and temperatures alone for now. Something to watch, as this may be the next impactful weather system for the area.

AVIATION(21Z TAF UPDATES) .

Mid-level clouds are beginning to push in this afternoon and will continue lowering overnight, as the mid-level disturbance pushes over MN/WI. Still expecting light snow to move in this evening with it to start at MSN 04z (give or take and hour or two) and then spread east toward the other terminals overnight. Periods of light snow are expected to continue Thursday, which will likely reduce visibilities and contribute to the lower ceilings and visibilities to IFR levels.

MARINE .

A mid-level disturbance continues to push into the Upper Midwest tonight. Winds will gradually diminish, but remain breezy at times through the evening. Will let the Small Craft Advisory expire this afternoon for our nearshore waters.

As the mid-level feature continues to push east, winds will continue weaken into Thursday, before another area of low pressure approaches from the Plains late Thursday. This will result in winds shifting to the east Friday, and then becoming northerly into the weekend as the low passes south of the region.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Boxell Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine . Boxell Thursday Night through Wednesday . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 91 mi37 min SSW 4.1 G 9.9 33°F 1020 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 93 mi17 min SSW 12 G 15 33°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wautoma, Wautoma Municipal Airport, WI10 mi21 minS 710.00 miUnknown Precip30°F25°F82%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KY50

Wind History from Y50 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmW3SW5SW18
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1 day agoW13W13W11W9W10W8W7NW6CalmW3NW6NW3CalmNW4NW4NW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmNE6NW6NW6
2 days agoW16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.