Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Necedah, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 140 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

> MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: light snow chances. Minor accums possible north of I-94

A couple ripples in the upper level flow look to spin across the region. First one in the morning and more weakly forced of the two.
Also, time/height x-sections and forecast soundings depict mostly low level saturation to work with. Temps should be cold enough for ice in the cloud, and even some suggestion for a somewhat deep DGZ in parts. Models aren't enthused with a weakening trend as the shortwave nears the local area - less areal outlay and less qpf with the pcpn. Could just be some flurries. Will hold with low end (20%)
snow chances for western locations for now - but may need to move toward scattered/widespread flurry wording eventually. Minimal/if any impacts anticipated.

The second shortwave shifts west to east across northern portions of the region Monday night and models show a bit more lift and deeper saturation to work with. Greater threat for minor/light accumulations. Current track holds most of any accums north of I-94 for the local area with the NBM and HRRR showing a 20-50% shot for 1". Looks reasonable.

> TUESDAY: relatively mild - above freezing for most! Swath of snow across the north (a few inches of accum) while temps suggest a rain/snow mix in the south. I-94 approx delineator at this time.

GEFS and EPS remain in very good agreement with driving an upper level shortwave trough from western Canada Monday night, to across the northern plains and then the upper mississippi river valley Tue night. Some small variances in timing/track/strength of the system's sfc low...but the preponderance of the models' members take the low center from northcentral MN to across central WI. Latest runs of both models also have more than 50% of their members in a slower, bit stronger solution compared to the mean - indications of the potential for a stronger system then currently depicted.

Favorable isentropic upglide leads the system in with deep QG convergence as it moves through. Fgen is kind of disjointed at this time, and mostly in the lower levels. Not a great signal for enhanced banding, but still a few days out. Perhaps some upper level jet support too. Ample saturation per forecast soundings and time/height x-sections to work with.

Appreciable warming on the south side of the system bring pcpn types into question. Vertical temp profiles lean into rain or snow for now - with little suggestion for "icy" to enter the mix. Will hold with snow/rain as the ptypes for now.

How much? QPF NAEFS and EPS are around +1 while EFIs for snow (within the snow band) top out at 0.7 with a non 0 SoT. This is an increase in the EFIs over its past few runs. LREF near 50% for 4+ inches of snow at 10:1 ratios in the heart of the snow band. Ratios could very well be near that at the start of the event, but likely kick up into the low-mid teens overnight. NBM leans into more snow with 30-50% chances for 6+". Considering the models are showing some signs of strengthening with this system, think 6+" could be reached in heart of the deformation region, which current track keeps across northeast MN/northern WI. Still, close enough that a Winter Storm Watch might be needed for locations north of I-94 - namely Taylor and Clark counties in WI.

Meanwhile, southward temp profiles suggest a mix of rain, rain-snow or snow. Much less for possible snow amounts as a result. Again, icing threat looks low at this time - but will have to keep an eye on it.

Northwest flow post the system Wed, along with favorable low level lapses rates-cold air advection, are likely to kick up snow showers and/or flurries.

As for how warm? 25% of the latest EPS members push 40+ degrees on the southerly flank of the winter storm. The GEFS isn't quite as warm, although a few high end outliers also like getting to 40. Both model suites have warmed a degree or two each day - so definitely a trend that bears watching. Obviously, temps will be reliant on how the system tracks - if it moves more south, so will the milder air.

> REST OF THE WEEK: periodic snow chances, back into the cold.

The "busy", progressive northwesterly upper level flow persists for the second half of the new week. Colder air on tap to return with Fri-Sun looking rather chilly. 75% of the GEFS and EPS members hold high temps in the single digits for Saturday - the coldest day of the bunch. Winds aren't looking particularity strong but apparent temps for Sat morning in the low to mid 20s below zero are trending.

Bits of shortwave energy push near/across the upper mississippi river valley over this period, but with the expected disagreements in placement/timing/strength between the ensemble suites at this time frame. That said, no suggestion of a stronger/higher impact system. WIll hold with the model blend for pcpn chances.

The following week could hold some hope for warming as a west coast ridge that the long range guidance has been tantalizing the region with might (might) finally work east and across the area. A return to normal, perhaps a bit above, temps would occur. A big IF though.
Mark and place in the "wait and see" file.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Clear skies this afternoon fill in through this evening as north winds become light and variable ahead of low chances for snow tonight into early Monday morning. The responsible wave is driving radar returns through the Northern Plains will be on a weakening trend as it approaches the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Therefore, have not added any mention of snow with <30% confidence at either TAF site. Higher, albeit minimal, chances lie west of the Mississippi River Valley at smaller airports and KRST TAF site from 6-12Z. Will require further amendment depending on how the wave and observations continue through Minnesota this evening. Regardless of snowfall, low level moisture and warm air advection expected through Monday morning, strongest west of the Mississippi River Valley, will cause MVFR-IFR ceilings.

Snowfall chances frequent the forecast area after the 07.18Z TAF period. Initially Monday night primarily north of Interstate 94 locally affecting smaller airports in central Wisconsin.
Subsequent mixed precipitation chances Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning will affect airports area wide with rain likely in northeast Iowa to snow in central Wisconsin. Determining exact location of precipitation type and accompanying impacts will be forecast detail to monitor in coming TAFs.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.