Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Necedah, WI
January 14, 2025 7:27 PM CST (01:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:30 AM Sunset 4:46 PM Moonrise 5:36 PM Moonset 8:27 AM |
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS63 KARX 142352 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 550 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Confidence is increasing (30-70% chance) for snow showers late tomorrow afternoon and into the overnight, primarily east of the Mississippi River. Accumulations of a trace to 1" will be possible.
- Above normal temperatures expected for Thursday and Friday with highs generally in the 30s and 40s across the entire area.
- Very cold temperatures are likely next week with morning low temperatures on Monday and Tuesday (40-90% chance) falling to -10F or colder with wind chills below -25F.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 151 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Rest of Today - Wednesday Morning: Continuing Cold
GOES-16 water vapor imagery and 500mb heights today depict a departing shortwave trough with north/northwesterly flow in its wake. With weak divergence in place overnight, minimal sky cover and relatively lighter winds enabled temperatures to once again plummet this morning with many locations falling below -10F and below zero temperatures areawide. Based on 850mb temperature fields in the 14.09z RAP of -20C earlier today, expecting somewhat similar conditions to the previous with highs generally in the upper single digits to middle teens. While the coldest axis of 850mb temperatures shifts eastward overnight, light surface winds and clear skies will allow our region to drop once again with lows falling to around 0 into Wednesday morning outside of typical cold spots in Central Wisconsin which may drop further.
Wednesday - Friday: Warmer End to the Week, Wednesday Snow Chances
As we head into Wednesday, a weak shortwave trough will sneak through the Upper Midwest with attending warm air advection in the low-levels. As associated low-level frontogenesis pushes through the area during the late afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday, this forcing and modestly steep low-level lapse rates will instigate some flurries/snow showers throughout the day. As a result, have increased precipitation chances for much of the area during this timeframe as much of the recent CAMs support this notion. This is further support by the 14.12z HRRR which has modest probabilities (30-80% chance) for seeing measurable QPF. P-type generally would be snow with this and while there is some question further southwest where a drier layer can be noted in the dendritic growth zone across southeast MN, the fairly robust forcing with the low-level warm advection would likely be enough to maintain saturation into the DGZ and make freezing drizzle more patchy in nature if it does occur. In any case, expecting accumulations of a trace to 1" for the area, primarily east of the Mississippi River. Would not rule out some amounts of over 1" given that the 14.12z HRRR has some low-end probabilities (10-30%) for over 0.1 of QPF" north of I-94, when combined with snow ratios of slightly above climatology of 15-17:1.
Looking at Thursday and Friday, the upper-level pattern changes briefly with a decent ridge swinging through. Given the previously mentioned warm advection and southwesterly surface flow, expecting temperatures to warm fairly considerably with median high temperatures in the 14.00z grand ensemble (GEFS/EC ens/Canadian ens)
generally in the middle 30s to middle 40s for Thursday and Friday.
This Weekend and Next Week: Very Cold Temperatures
Saturday will feature a very profound airmass change as a fairly strong upper-level trough will push through the region during the pre-dawn hours, issuing strong cold air advection and northwesterly flow. Consequently, expecting afternoon temperatures only in the upper single digits to middle teens with temperatures falling throughout the day and into the evening. By the time Sunday morning rolls around, the entire area will likely fall below zero for air temperatures with medium probabilities (30-60%) in the 14.00z grand ensemble for wind chills below -25F. As we start the new week, this arctic airmass situates directly overhead with 850mb temperatures of -30C progged across deterministic guidance (GFS/EC). The coldest period will likely be Sunday through Tuesday with robust probabilities (40-90% chance) in the 14.00z grand ensemble for morning air temperatures on Monday and Tuesday to fall into the negative double digits areawide and for wind chills under -25F. There are even some low probabilities (10-40%) for wind chills under -35F, so certainly the potential exists for this to be a hazardous stretch of cold.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 550 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
CIGS: SKC/SCT VFR conditions expected into Wed morning. Low MVFR deck (potentially IFR) progged to move in by late morning/afternoon ahead of a shortwave trough Wed. Some differences in the short term guidance on the timing but will lean into RAP/HRRR for now. Once in, the lower cigs should persist through Wed night.
WX/vsby: upper level shortwave trough and favorable 1000:850 mb low level lapse rates (8+ C/km) point to a broken band of snow showers moving southeast across the region Wed afternoon/early evening. The stronger forcing/deeper saturation has the short term models holding the higher chances/QPF to the northeast, mostly north of I-94.
Enough support though that some chances are warranted for KRST/KLSE and will add in a PROB30 to cover this. Amounts would be minimal if realized (a few tenths).
WINDS: light west becoming south overnight...increasing Wed as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of that shortwave.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 550 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Confidence is increasing (30-70% chance) for snow showers late tomorrow afternoon and into the overnight, primarily east of the Mississippi River. Accumulations of a trace to 1" will be possible.
- Above normal temperatures expected for Thursday and Friday with highs generally in the 30s and 40s across the entire area.
- Very cold temperatures are likely next week with morning low temperatures on Monday and Tuesday (40-90% chance) falling to -10F or colder with wind chills below -25F.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 151 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Rest of Today - Wednesday Morning: Continuing Cold
GOES-16 water vapor imagery and 500mb heights today depict a departing shortwave trough with north/northwesterly flow in its wake. With weak divergence in place overnight, minimal sky cover and relatively lighter winds enabled temperatures to once again plummet this morning with many locations falling below -10F and below zero temperatures areawide. Based on 850mb temperature fields in the 14.09z RAP of -20C earlier today, expecting somewhat similar conditions to the previous with highs generally in the upper single digits to middle teens. While the coldest axis of 850mb temperatures shifts eastward overnight, light surface winds and clear skies will allow our region to drop once again with lows falling to around 0 into Wednesday morning outside of typical cold spots in Central Wisconsin which may drop further.
Wednesday - Friday: Warmer End to the Week, Wednesday Snow Chances
As we head into Wednesday, a weak shortwave trough will sneak through the Upper Midwest with attending warm air advection in the low-levels. As associated low-level frontogenesis pushes through the area during the late afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday, this forcing and modestly steep low-level lapse rates will instigate some flurries/snow showers throughout the day. As a result, have increased precipitation chances for much of the area during this timeframe as much of the recent CAMs support this notion. This is further support by the 14.12z HRRR which has modest probabilities (30-80% chance) for seeing measurable QPF. P-type generally would be snow with this and while there is some question further southwest where a drier layer can be noted in the dendritic growth zone across southeast MN, the fairly robust forcing with the low-level warm advection would likely be enough to maintain saturation into the DGZ and make freezing drizzle more patchy in nature if it does occur. In any case, expecting accumulations of a trace to 1" for the area, primarily east of the Mississippi River. Would not rule out some amounts of over 1" given that the 14.12z HRRR has some low-end probabilities (10-30%) for over 0.1 of QPF" north of I-94, when combined with snow ratios of slightly above climatology of 15-17:1.
Looking at Thursday and Friday, the upper-level pattern changes briefly with a decent ridge swinging through. Given the previously mentioned warm advection and southwesterly surface flow, expecting temperatures to warm fairly considerably with median high temperatures in the 14.00z grand ensemble (GEFS/EC ens/Canadian ens)
generally in the middle 30s to middle 40s for Thursday and Friday.
This Weekend and Next Week: Very Cold Temperatures
Saturday will feature a very profound airmass change as a fairly strong upper-level trough will push through the region during the pre-dawn hours, issuing strong cold air advection and northwesterly flow. Consequently, expecting afternoon temperatures only in the upper single digits to middle teens with temperatures falling throughout the day and into the evening. By the time Sunday morning rolls around, the entire area will likely fall below zero for air temperatures with medium probabilities (30-60%) in the 14.00z grand ensemble for wind chills below -25F. As we start the new week, this arctic airmass situates directly overhead with 850mb temperatures of -30C progged across deterministic guidance (GFS/EC). The coldest period will likely be Sunday through Tuesday with robust probabilities (40-90% chance) in the 14.00z grand ensemble for morning air temperatures on Monday and Tuesday to fall into the negative double digits areawide and for wind chills under -25F. There are even some low probabilities (10-40%) for wind chills under -35F, so certainly the potential exists for this to be a hazardous stretch of cold.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 550 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
CIGS: SKC/SCT VFR conditions expected into Wed morning. Low MVFR deck (potentially IFR) progged to move in by late morning/afternoon ahead of a shortwave trough Wed. Some differences in the short term guidance on the timing but will lean into RAP/HRRR for now. Once in, the lower cigs should persist through Wed night.
WX/vsby: upper level shortwave trough and favorable 1000:850 mb low level lapse rates (8+ C/km) point to a broken band of snow showers moving southeast across the region Wed afternoon/early evening. The stronger forcing/deeper saturation has the short term models holding the higher chances/QPF to the northeast, mostly north of I-94.
Enough support though that some chances are warranted for KRST/KLSE and will add in a PROB30 to cover this. Amounts would be minimal if realized (a few tenths).
WINDS: light west becoming south overnight...increasing Wed as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of that shortwave.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KVOK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVOK
Wind History Graph: VOK
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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La Crosse, WI,
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