Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sparta, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:08PM Sunday January 26, 2020 6:37 AM CST (12:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:46AMMoonset 6:55PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sparta, WI
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location: 43.93, -90.81     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 261120 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 520 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 218 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

As well-discussed over the past few days, quite the convoluted overall pattern over much of the CONUS over the past week or so, and that won't change much over the coming days. The culprit lies in a strong and persistent north Pacific jet, hindering any significant upper ridge/trough development and thus allowing for very transitory systems to impact the area, all while a lack of upper jet energy for much of the Lower 48 allows for slow and difficult to forecast evolution of a myriad of shortwaves. The long and short of it is this is a quite weakly forced environment over the coming days, and all cards on the table here, forecast confidence beyond about 24 hours will remain on the lower side.

Prime example of this trickiness is today's forecast, starting with some pesky flurries crossing the area through sunrise. Not much of a signal regarding forcing mechanisms - perhaps just a touch of weak PV advection on the back side of the closed low over the eastern Great Lakes. Second feature is a compact/closed upper wave meandering slowly south out of North Dakota. Solid though narrow axis of 700-500mb frontogenetic forcing is noted ahead of that wave working across western MN as of 07Z, with a thin band of mainly light precipitation following said axis. While that signal has consistently been progged to weaken considerably upon approach to our area, it now appears we may maintain sufficient saturation to bring a little light snow to parts of southeast MN and northeast IA this morning, before forcing quickly dwindles after 18Z. Not much in the way of accumulation expected (less than a half inch but enough for some slick spots), but may need to trend precip chances quite high for a few hours as it arrives.

Heading into the early work week, confidence again dives quickly, though the overall trend for a few additional shortwaves to traverse the local area is intact. The one to watch has slipped a bit from Monday into more of Monday night, with continued hints that we may briefly deepen the stratus layer up to 1.5km right along/and behind a weak cold front washing out over the area. That setup at least warrants some risk for freezing drizzle given shallow warm advection/lift ahead of the wave and front and sufficiently deep moisture depth (including the often-noted increase in moisture above a sharp inversion per GFS/NAM forecast soundings). Certainly something to watch, though given trends the past few days, exact timing remains a bit questionable (keeps getting pushed back in model world).

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 218 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

Weakly forced overall upper pattern Wednesday looks to finally get a real kick into late week and beyond, as that elongated north Pacific jet mentioned above "breaks" into the western CONUS, while the subtropical jet stream also gets a boost with time. End result should be a bit more predictability to shortwaves as we get a little closer to the extended portions of the forecast, with some increasing hint for a coupling of those stronger jets to drive strong cyclogenesis over the eastern portions of the U.S. by the weekend (details still very much to be determined). Closer to home, periodic chances for mainly light precipitation should exist into late week with a variety of weaker shortwaves working across the region, though similar to the near-term forecast, exact specifics remain a little murky. What is of higher confidence is a continuation of above normal temperatures, though with some signals that we may eventually trend toward a colder period beyond next weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 520 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period at LSE with ceilings near 1500 ft and light northwest winds. Could see a few periods of high IFR throughout the day, but thinking they would be brief.

Earlier guidance suggested RST would improve to MVFR by mid-day today, but latest trends have been to keep IFR ceilings in place through the TAF period. Can't completely rule out some periods of MVFR, but IFR looks to prevail with westerly winds becoming light and variable. Otherwise, a band of light snow continues to approach from the west and is expected to move into parts of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa this morning. General consensus is to keep the band just south of RST, so did not include any -SN mention, but a few pieces of guidance get it pretty close to the TAF site, so will need to monitor trends this morning.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. IA . None.

SHORT TERM . Lawrence LONG TERM . Lawrence AVIATION . CA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sparta, Sparta / Fort McCoy Airport, WI4 mi42 minW 710.00 miOvercast28°F25°F87%1012.9 hPa
Black River Falls Area Airport, WI22 mi42 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast27°F24°F90%1012.5 hPa
La Crosse - La Crosse Regional Airport, WI24 mi44 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast29°F24°F82%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCMY

Wind History from CMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W6W5NW6W8W7W8W6W7NW7NW7NW6NW6W3W3W6W3W4W5W5W5W4W5NW6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE5NE5N3N4N3CalmN3N3N4N3NW5NW5NW5NW5NW6NW5NW7NW6NW6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3NE3NE5NE4E4NE3NE4E5E4E3E4E5NE4NE4NE5NE4N3N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.