Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:42AM||Sunset 5:52PM||Saturday February 27, 2021 4:22 AM CST (10:22 UTC)||Moonrise 6:22PM||Moonset 7:19AM||Illumination 100%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sparta, WIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KARX 270821 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 220 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021
SHORT TERM. (Today through Sunday) Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021
Forecast focus is on the storm system driving across the region tonight. Looks to pack a punch but brings a lot of questions of what falls, where, and how much.
*FORCERS: consistent signal within the models to stretch an upper level shortwave out of the desert SW northeast today, sliding across the region late tonight/sunday morning. Could come in bits and pieces initially but conglomerates as it moves in and out. Comes through with a positive tilt. Associated sfc low deepens as it moves in, with the latest operational runs of GFS and EC taking the low southwest-northeast through the heart of the forecast area. Latest NAM12 is much farther south with the low, being drawn into some upper level energy moving across the oh river valley. Pretty good consensus in the various ensemble members of the GFS and EC to support their operational runs, leaving the NAM12 the odd model out (at this time). Will side with them.
Hefty isentropic upglide on the 280-295 K sfcs from 00-15z Sun. Plenty of frontogenetic forcing to contend with too, with suggestions of 2 main bands - one sitting just northwest of the low, on the western edge of the 700 mb dry punch, and the other a bit more northwest in the traditional deformation region.
In addition, 300 mb jet streak suggestive of enhanced lift tonight into Sun morning, although mostly focused across MN into northern WI.
*PCPN TYPES: kitchen sink.
So many variables here with nuances that could flip it from snow to rain to freezing . and back Trying not to get too verbose.
Sfc temps: currently, looks like sfc temps tonight could hover around freezing, plus or minus a couple degrees either side. Obviously impacts for freezing rain/drizzle. Untreated sfcs should be able to accrue light icing with freezing temps. If it stays on the plus side of freezing, snow and rain (maybe sleet with convective elements) are the types.
Ice in cloud: meso models and NAM12 continue to point to periods with no ice in the cloud, especially overnight into Sunday morning. Rain/drizzle - possible freezing - outcomes here.
Convection: this is possible. 700 mb dry punch pushing across the forecast area, bufkit soundings showing some weak instability at top of saturated layer, while time/height x-sections hint at -epv on top of the frontogenetic regions. Ice would be introduced into clouds leading to snow/rain/sleet types Probably more snow/sleet though.
*AMOUNTS: tough call with uncertainty in ptypes.
As it sits now, models continue to paint the main deformation region just off the northwest of the forecast area, thus dropping the higher snow amounts from southern MN into northern WI.
Secondary band of snow could result on the northwest edge of the 700 mb dry wedge, coupled with a frontogenesis/frontolysis couplet at 700 mb. This is a sneaky, tricky one. If it's there, snow amounts could ramp up in a very narrow band, which could impacts parts of SE MN into north-central WI.
Snow ratios relatively low right now with higher DGZs holding west/north.
Snow: current forecast dropping roughly 2 to 4 for portions of SE MN and north-central WI. Some potential for much more than that - with storm track/banding having the final say on.
Ice: trace to as much as 1/10" not out of the question. Current layout favors SE MN and along/north of I-90 in WI. Sooooo dependent on sfc temps and how deep that saturation can get. Not confident in amounts with so many ingredients flavoring the final outcome.
Boisterous system and thankful it's a quick mover. Confidence held in check on ptype types, and thus how much of what falls - and where. Confidence on the higher end that the heaviest snow band will lie outside the local forecast boundaries, but a secondary band is not out of the question. No going to issue any headlines right now, but Winter Weather Advisories for the mixed bag may (will?) be needed for portions of the area from later tonight into Sun morning. Then again, slight shift in track north and it's much ado about nothing.
Quick look at Sunday night: a shortwave trough on track to drop southeast across WI. Fairly consistent signal and could bring some light snow, mostly along/north of I-94. Could bring up to 1".
LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 220 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021
Broad upper level ridging favored for much of next week, although some variance between the EC and GFS and to how strong and whether they could be any influence from some mid week troughing over the great lakes. The bottom line is for a dry start to March with temperatures (potentially) well above normal.
AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021
VFR conditions are expected for much of the period. The current short wave trough moving over the area will continue to move away from the region with scattered to at times broken high clouds over the area. The next short wave trough will approach the area Saturday evening as an area of low pressure moves across northern Iowa. There is some potential for IFR ceilings and precipitation ahead of this system to move into KRST just before 28.06Z but confidence on this is too low on the timing to include at this point. Higher confidence that the precipitation and IFR conditions will spread over both airport after 28.06Z.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. IA . None.
SHORT TERM . Rieck LONG TERM . Rieck AVIATION . 04
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Sparta, Sparta / Fort McCoy Airport, WI||4 mi||28 min||N 0||5.00 mi||Fog/Mist||24°F||23°F||97%||1009.1 hPa|
|Black River Falls Area Airport, WI||22 mi||28 min||SSW 3||7.00 mi||Fair||24°F||23°F||92%||1008.1 hPa|
|La Crosse - La Crosse Regional Airport, WI||24 mi||30 min||SE 3||9.00 mi||Fair||32°F||26°F||79%||1009.8 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KCMY
Wind History from CMY (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||W||W||NW||NW||NW||N||NW|
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