Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kinde, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 9:07PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 1:48 AM EDT (05:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:07AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 947 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then partly cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:202005270915;;807575 FZUS53 KDTX 270147 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-270915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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location: 43.94, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 270354 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1154 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

AVIATION.

Widely scattered convection will be possible again late Wednesday, but most of this activity will remain west of the terminals as a ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the area. Southeast flow will persist around this ridge.


DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Very low for thunderstorms impacting the terminal late Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 656 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

Amplified 590+dm subtropical ridge anchored off the East Coast and a closed low over the southern Great Plains will drive warm, humid air into the Great Lakes region for the next several days. This consolidated corridor of southerly flow extending from the Gulf of Mexico into northwest Ontario will drive episodic convection upstream which the NWP indicate will result numerous shortwaves, some convectively enhanced, lifting through the CWA between now and Thursday. The first two are already evident on regional imagery with modest ascent associated with the lead wave supporting convection within a localized area of enhanced boundary layer convergence over far western/northwestern Lower early this afternoon. As destabilization continues over the remainder of the peninsula, additional pulse convection can be expected within any stronger HCRs and/or especially over the Thumb where isentropic ascent will be maximized by later this afternoon. The next wave, presently positioned along the I-70 corridor in IL/IN will follow roughly the same trajectory, though slightly further west and later in the peak heating cycle. Therefore, some additional activity near the Ohio border late this afternoon before diminishing around sunset. Elevated dewpoints will keep a high floor on overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s, around 15 degrees above late May average values. Hedged slightly lower with low temps over the southern portion of the CWA as dry air noted on ch 10 and surface obs over the Appalachians will lift through that area during the first half of tonight. Greater depth of dry air in the lower atmosphere may allow dewpoints and temps to fall off an additional couple of degrees.

Little change on Wednesday with the exception of a greater coverage of mid-level clouds as a portion of the wave over the far southeast US is steered through the area within deep southeast flow. Greater clouds and stronger southeast flow over Lake Erie will limit instability over at least the southeast half of the area, thereby limiting isolated afternoon pulse t-storms to western counties.

By late Wednesday night, a northern stream wave will impinge on the resident subtropical ridge as it approaches the Dakotas. As the nascent right entrance region takes shape over portions of the Upper Midwest late Wednesday night moisture advection and increasing isentropic ascent will be underway locally, first in response to the remainder of the energy over the southeast US lifting into the area early Thursday and then as the closed low itself is absorbed back into the westerlies. The initial slug of forcing Thursday morning will lead the development of any substantial instability thereby keeping QPF in check through the first half of the day.

Attention then turns to the strengthening right entrance region and the attendant low-level frontal response as the closed low progresses toward the Bootheel of Missouri during Thursday. A 12-18 hour period of strong deformation will strengthen the frontal zone as deep layer flow becomes increasingly boundary-parallel. This will slow its forward progress and increase PWATs to 1.5"-1.7" along the front itself. Given the inherent uncertainty in the phase speed of the northern wave and exact behavior of the closed low during the next 48 hours the forecast position of the front - which is currently progged to reside near/north of a Chicago-Saginaw line Thurs/Thurs night - the location of the axis of heaviest rain will be subject to revision going forward. Unlike last week, the duration of any heavy rain threat will be limited by the progressive nature of the aforementioned northern wave.

Canadian high pressure brings choice late spring wx for the weekend. Highs in the 60s and 70s under mostly sunny skies accompanied by dewpoints in the 30s and 40s. Crisp overnight lows.

MARINE .

Moist airmass will plague the region through the end of the work week. This may produce areas of fog, some dense across northern Lake Huron rest of today.

With a stagnant pattern, south-southeast winds generally around 10kts will veer more south Wednesday then maintain that primary direction before veering to the southwest Thursday night as a cold front begins to slowly move through the area exiting Friday afternoon. Winds will veer to the northwest and increase speed slightly after passage and continue through the weekend. In the meantime there will be some degree chance of showers and thunderstorms until the front passes. Overall, wave heights should remain on the low side.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 337 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DRC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 11 mi58 min SW 4.1 78°F 1015.4 hPa61°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi55 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 49°F1015.8 hPa62°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi69 min E 5.1 G 9.9 76°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi69 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 66°F 1016.6 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi49 min S 13 G 13 76°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.4)
PSCM4 43 mi49 min S 2.9 G 2.9 63°F 1035.2 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI10 mi53 minS 510.00 miFair73°F62°F70%1016.9 hPa
Port Hope, MI12 mi58 minSW 4 mi78°F61°F56%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5E6E5SE3SE5SE6S3SW4W3S7S3S3S6CalmS7SE5SE8S6S5S5S4S4S6S3
1 day agoCalmCalmS4CalmCalmSE3S3S4SE5CalmS3S6S7SW5SW8S6S8S5S7S6W5SW4S4SE5
2 days agoSE4SE6SE5SE8S5S11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.