Saturday, June12, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kinde, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 9:19PM Saturday June 12, 2021 10:12 AM EDT (14:12 UTC) Moonrise 6:21AMMoonset 10:30PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 952 Am Edt Sat Jun 12 2021
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy late in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:202106122115;;146652 FZUS53 KDTX 121352 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 952 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-122115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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location: 43.94, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 121031 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 631 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

AVIATION.

Ample boundary layer moisture and weak flow has allowed a large area of LIFR stratus to develop in the wake of departing mid/high clouds overnight. These clouds will mix out effectively into a scattered VFR based diurnal cu field by afternoon. Upper level short wave energy combined with late day instability will offer a chance of evening convection. Current model trends suggest that if TSRA is able to develop, it will be after 21Z.

For DTW . The low stratus deck will attempt to push into metro before daytime heating has a sufficient chance to deepen the boundary layer. Any morning clouds low clouds will be brief. The timing of better ascent for thunderstorm development will be after 22 or 23Z this evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low in thunderstorms this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

DISCUSSION .

Weak ridging over the central Great Lakes flattens today in response to an approaching jet streak working across the northern Midwest. Mid-level circulation rides along on the nose of the jet before working across lower Michigan late afternoon/early evening. This system draws a richer theta-e plume up into SE MI during the afternoon with dewpoints climbing back into the upper 60s. Increasing cloud cover on the leading edge of the wave will reduce afternoon insolation and subsequent destabilization, however there will still be ample instability for convection to work with given the fairly moisture rich airmass. MLCAPE values peak early evening between 1000-1500 J/kg. Timing of convective initiation has slowed in most solutions with scattered convection not firing until after 22Z. Consequent of this delay is that shear increases over the course of the evening with 0-6km bulk shear pushing 30kts by 00Z supporting some organization with any convection. With a limited momentum pool aloft due to sub-700mb winds staying aob 25kts, it will be difficult for precip loading/descending cores to generate severe wind gusts at the surface. That said, signal is still there for very steep low level lapse rates to develop by late afternoon with values getting close to 9 C/km. As a result, an isolated strong to near-severe gust will still be a possibility in the strongest cells. The overall wave strength has trended down in tonight's runs compared to yesterday so have nudged PoPs down slightly to only chance/scattered removing likely/numerous.

Longwave trough develops over eastern Canada late Sunday before digging south over the Great Lakes and Northeast over the course of Monday. A compact shortwave rides along the edge of this trough dropping southeast from the northlands of MN into central MI by Monday morning. There is favorable dynamics in the mid/upper levels for shower development daytime Monday given the combination of a respectable accompanying PV anomaly and the wave sitting in the left exit region of a developing jet streak. This shortwave clears the area by Monday evening ending any further rain chances.

More comfortable weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday as a cooler, drier Canadian airmass settles over the region. Skies stay generally clear as PW values drop below 0.5 inches with highs only reaching the mid to upper 70s. Clear skies and dry air will promote efficient radiative cooling these nights causing lows to fall into the low 50s to upper 40s.

MARINE .

A trough of low pressure connected to a surface low in central Canada maintains an active period of showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and from central Lake Huron southward. The pressure features are weak and the wind light across the central Great Lakes outside of any stronger thunderstorms. The trough exits eastward and is followed by equally weak high pressure for Sunday which brings dry weather and light wind, although more consistently from a NW direction. A cool front follows Sunday night into Monday with another chance of showers. NW wind increases slightly but remains below 25 knots even across central Lake Huron through Monday. Dry and cooler marine conditions follow through early next week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SC DISCUSSION . KDK MARINE . BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 11 mi78 min N 4.1 64°F 1012.2 hPa57°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi55 min NNE 5.1 G 6 61°F 63°F1011.6 hPa59°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi33 min NE 6 G 8 60°F 1013.2 hPa
45163 32 mi33 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 63°F 1 ft1013.7 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi33 min ENE 5.1 G 9.9 64°F 1012.9 hPa
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 39 mi33 min E 9.7 G 14 55°F 52°F1012.7 hPa55°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi73 min SSE 2.9 G 11 62°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.3)
PSCM4 43 mi73 min N 7 G 8 62°F 1030.5 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E7
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NE5
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G11
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SE1
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI10 mi18 minE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F60°F78%1012.2 hPa
Port Hope, MI12 mi18 minE 7 mi74°F59°F60%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE7NE9E9E4NE4NE9
G14
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G17
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N8
G14
N5NE4NE3NE5NE4N6NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoE5SE8SE3SE7
G14
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G15
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G17
E6SE4
G16
E8SE7SE3CalmCalmSE6SE7SE8SE8SE4E6SE3CalmCalmE5S3
2 days agoCalmNE5E7
G14
E9
G16
E11
G17
NE10E9NE10NE10NE9NE6NE5NE5NE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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