Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 3:37 AM   Moonset 3:35 PM

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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 354 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the north in the late morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 041841 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 241 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and possible non-severe thunderstorms this evening through Sunday morning.

- High pressure builds in latter half of Sunday through Monday bringing drier conditions and closer to average temperatures.

- Developing low pressure over the Midwest brings widespread shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Southeasterly lower level flow has developed this afternoon in response to a weak cold front gradually sagging into the western Great Lakes. This wind shift supports modest moisture advection from Ohio, where dewpoints are holding in the mid 60s, nudging local Td's into the low 60s late this afternoon-evening. Even with this extra moisture, both SB/MLCAPEs are expected to stay fairly meager, holding closer to 500 J/kg. Forecast soundings advertise an uncapped environment with weak column winds (<20kts thru 500mb) which supports scattered pop-up showers and perhaps a thunderstorm into early tonight as height falls move in from the west and a diffuse PV anomaly lifts NE over far northwestern Ohio. Surface cold front crosses the area Sunday morning offering another window for scattered showers, particularly along/north of I-69 owing to closer proximity to parent shortwave which offers slightly better upper support/forcing compared to locales further south.

Marginally cooler airmass fallows the frontal passage as 850mb temps drop to around 4-5C keeping highs Monday in the upper 60s to around 70 for most areas. Easterly flow beneath the surface high that will be centered over northern lower MI by this point keeps areas downwind of the lakes like Monroe and especially the Thumb cooler- upper 50s to lower 60s favored.

Upper ridging and associated surface high are shunted east by early Tuesday as a potent mid-upper wave ejects out of the Rockies into the northern Plains. A secondary surface low is progged to develop over the upper Midwest along the original, now stacked, low's triple point. This system lifts a warm front into southern lower MI over the course of Tuesday bringing the area's next appreciable chances for showers and thunderstorms. The attendant cold front quickly follows Tuesday night generating additional widespread showers and storms. Worth noting that longer range solutions suggest a ~40kt LLJ could work into the area from west MI setting up a higher shear environment with severe potential dependant on how much destabilization occurs once the warm sector fully expands of the area. SE MI resides on the edge of SPC's Day 4 15% severe weather outlook so will be something to keep on eye on as we get closer.

MARINE

An elongated area of low pressure over Wisconsin/Illinois this afternoon tracks east into the central Great Lakes tonight, pulling a warm front north ahead of it. This will result in an increasing coverage of showers as well as modest southeasterly winds tonight.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms but severe weather is not expected. A cold front follows on Sunday morning with continued shower/t-storm chances and a shift to northwest wind of around 15 to 20 knots as conditions dry out for the afternoon. High pressure then builds in to bring quiet marine conditions for Monday and much of Tuesday. The next round of likely precip arrives late Tuesday as a warm front moves into the area. This marks the beginning of a more active period through the rest of the week with several disturbances working through.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

AVIATION...

Moisture will increase from south to north again this afternoon and evening as mid level wave ejects into the general area in advance of approaching frontal system. Expect a trend from lower VFR back to MVFR with a few showers possible with this moisture especially into evening. IFR/lower MVFR stratus still looks likely overnight as the moist southerly flow persists before frontal passage early Sunday morning. While this front looks pretty dry, a few showers will be possible with its passage. Ceilings will slowly erode/lift within west to northwest flow in its wake on Sunday (especially by aft).

For DTW/D21 Convection...Southeasterly winds today will drive weak instability across the airspace after 21Z. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within this environment. Forecast probabilities suggest a 20 percent chance across the southern portions of the airspace.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight.

* Moderate for ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon, high by the overnight period into Sunday morning.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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