Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kinde, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:04PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 5:35 AM EST (10:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:07PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 409 Am Est Wed Nov 25 2020
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then backing to the southeast late in the afternoon. A chance of light rain in the morning, then light rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Rain in the evening, then a chance of light rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:202011251615;;365632 FZUS53 KDTX 250909 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 409 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-251615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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location: 43.94, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 250906 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 406 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020

DISCUSSION.

Morning satellite shows low pressure spinning into Missouri with deep layer southwest flow continuing to direct warm/moist advection into southeast Michigan. Warming thermal profiles through the early morning hours has resulted in a full change over to rain with observations in the Thumb now reporting only rain. In terms of moisture, DTX 00Z RAOB from yesterday evening came in with a PWAT of 0.77 inches and expect this number to max out around 1 inch by this afternoon. Isentropic ascent offered good coverage of showers early in the night, but a dry slot is now working through the area. This is resulting in a more scattered coverage of rain showers this morning, so have lowered PoPs accordingly for the early- mid morning period.

The next batch of widespread showers lifts northward with the mid level deformation axis between 18-00Z as the center of the main low pressure moves across Illinois and Indiana. The system will be weakening to some degree as it approaches, which will help keep overall rainfall amounts in check through today. However, some higher totals of around an inch may be possible as 700-850mb FGEN may enhance showers. Most likely locations for the higher end rainfall totals would be towards the Tri- Cities/northern Thumb and then along the southern MI border on the direct northern end of the surface low. Drizzle conditions may become more prominent towards the evening into the early part of the night with precipitation chances tapering off by around 12Z Thursday morning.

Split upper level flow sets up Thursday into Friday with dry conditions expected for Thanksgiving. Warmer airmass holds on through the day helping high temperatures stay above normal in the low 50s for most of the area. A progressive northern stream shortwave and associated cold front will swing through the region on Friday, but the lack of moisture will result in a mostly dry passage. Weak post frontal cold air advection will cut temperatures down slightly with weekend highs returning to the 40s and overnight low generally around freezing. A surface high pressure drifting across the Ohio River Valley maintains dry conditions through Sunday.

Potential for a potent winter system early next week when a northern stream wave diving out of the Gulf of Alaska phases with a southern stream wave drifting out of the Four Corners region. Latest Euro comes into better agreement with the GFS with phasing more over the Appalachians. Forecast offers a significant amount of QPF over the region while wrapping around plenty of cold air. It will be something to keep an eye on with still plenty of time to hash out details.

MARINE.

Rain and any remaining mix with snow across the lakes wanes in coverage and intensity this morning with south winds weakening and becoming variable this afternoon. The next system currently over the lower Missouri Valley lifts northeast into the southern Great Lakes late today, tracking over western Lake Erie tonight while weakening. This brings another round of rainfall to the area during this period. Cold advection and wind response will be dampened behind the departing system on Thursday with wind speeds remaining about 15 kt or below. The next cold front moves through in the Friday to Friday night time frame with mostly dry conditions and westerly flow around 10 to 15 kt persisting into this weekend.

HYDROLOGY.

Scattered showers in the morning turn widespread during the afternoon with the approach of a weakening low pressure system. PWAT values increase to around 1.00 inch by this afternoon supporting average rainfall amounts of around a half inch. Low level frontal forcing could enhance rainfall at times and may result in totals of around 1.00 inch. Favored areas would be north of M-46 and also along the southern Michigan border. Flooding concerns remain limited given that rainfall will be spaced over a longer period of time. Expecting just some nuisance flooding if any at all and mainly for urban areas.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1138 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020

AVIATION .

Steady warm air advection will provide periodic bouts of rain showers through the overnight hours. Limited coverage of lower cloud during this time, confirmed by recent model guidance and observational evidence. This continues to support primarily VFR level conditions through daybreak, outside of any intermittent disruption in visibility with brief heavier rainfall. A plume of higher low level moisture will lift northward into the region Wednesday. This bring deteriorating conditions within an increasing coverage of moderate intensity rainfall. IFR restrictions appear likely by early-mid afternoon, with potential for LIFR in a combination of drizzle and fog toward sunset through Wednesday night.

For DTW . Periodic showers overnight, but void of an accompanying lower cloud. Lowering cloud bases throughout Wednesday - lowest restrictions likely Wednesday evening/overnight with possible LIFR in some combination of near surface stratus or fog. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet through mid morning, high thereafter.

* Low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200ft and/or 1/2SM Wednesday evening through Wednesday night

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . AA MARINE . TF HYDROLOGY . AA AVIATION . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 11 mi39 min 4.1 39°F 1013.9 hPa36°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi48 min S 11 G 12 39°F 42°F1013.6 hPa37°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi56 min SSE 15 G 17 38°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi56 min S 8 G 13 39°F 1013.5 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi36 min S 19 G 22 39°F 1012.5 hPa (-1.4)
PSCM4 43 mi36 min S 9.9 G 14 41°F 1032.5 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI10 mi41 minno data4.00 miLight Snow37°F36°F99%1013.9 hPa
Port Hope, MI12 mi39 minVar 4 mi39°F36°F89%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm----------------------------------------------
1 day agoW8W8W8W6W11
G18
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NW11--NW8NW6NW6----N3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE6SE6CalmCalmCalmE5S5SE3N3--CalmN4--Calm--CalmW5----Calm------SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.