Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kinde, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:01PM Monday December 16, 2019 4:58 AM EST (09:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 335 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201912161615;;862338 FZUS53 KDTX 160835 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-161615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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location: 43.94, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 160751 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 251 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

DISCUSSION.

With right entrance region of subtropical jet to the south of the region, area of light snow associated with shortwave tracking into confluent flow over the Ohio Valley will remain to the south of the region early this morning with just a few flurries possible right along the the Michigan and Ohio state line before dawn. Weak mid level deformation with the wave is producing an area of light snow and flurries over northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin, but expect this moisture to dry up it encounters dry airmass over the region (per 00z KDTX sounding). The shortwave will also be weakening as it becomes more sheared with time this morning as it encounters an increasingly confluent upper flow.

A second shortwave now crossing the southern Rockies will track into the Ohio Valley tonight, but with the flow remaining confluent and main jet energy remain south, expect little in the way of snow this far north. Again, locations along the far southern boundary of the forecast area will see the best chance of light snow and perhaps a light dusting late tonight as this system just begins to feel the influence of a potent northern stream wave digging from Manitoba into Ontario and is pulled northeast to some extent just as it clips the far southeastern portion of the forecast area.

This strong northern stream shortwave will push a strong cold front across the region Tuesday night as its core passes the the north and northeast of the region. Expect snow showers to accompany the cold front with lake effect flurries (perhaps better coverage of snow showers over the Thumb) on Wednesday as cold air deepens over the area (H85 -20c clips the area during this time frame). For the most part, this activity looks to be rather minor over much of Southeast Lower Michigan as even though forecast sounding show a low level inversion up to 800mb or so, they also reveal a rather dry airmass (particularly away from the influence of moisture plume from Lake Superior to Lake Huron).

Temperatures will bottom out during this period with highs Wednesday in the lower 20s (perhaps teens in a few locations). While still cold into Thursday, moderation is expected during the remainder of the week on into next weekend as this system quickly pivots through Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes and a zonal upper level flow pattern (initially a bit wavy during the late week period) expands east to cover much/all of the northern tier of the CONUS by next weekend. This pattern will allow temperatures to climb to at least 40 by the end of this forecast period with little to no notable weather.

MARINE.

Light southwesterly flow to start the day as a high pressure slides into the western Great Lakes with short wave ridging. Winds will remain light while a system develops across the OH River Valley today into Tuesday and stays south of the region. Little impact to the Great Lakes other than chances for light snow showers across the southern lakes. Greater surge of arctic air with a polar low will arrive Tuesday night/Wednesday morning bringing possible northwest gales across Lake Huron. The cold air in combination with elevated winds will also bring potential for freezing spray across portions of Lake Huron as well. Increasing waves will also bring an additional round of Small Craft Advisories to the nearshore zones as waves build along the Thumb shorelines. Arctic surge exits rather quickly as high pressure moves in Wednesday night into Thursday with decreasing winds and waves.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1148 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

AVIATION .

Thick high based cloud will blanket the region tonight and Monday. Low level moisture associated with a system tracking through the lower Ohio valley will largely remain south of the state, although some reduction in cigs near 4-5k ft will be possible particularly in the Detroit corridor. Meaningful snowfall associated with this system expected to remain south late tonight and Monday morning. Winds remaining light through the period.

For DTW . Some lowering of thicker mid cloud will occur toward morning, leaving a window for possible cigs near or just below 5000 ft during the mid-late morning hours. This moisture may translate into some flurries during that time, but accumulating snow will remain south of Metro.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft late tonight through Monday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . AA AVIATION . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 11 mi68 min SW 2.9 25°F 1021.9 hPa18°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi59 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 25°F 33°F1021 hPa (+0.8)19°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi58 min W 5.1 G 7 25°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi79 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 23°F 1021 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi59 min W 4.1 G 6 26°F 1020.3 hPa (+0.7)
PSCM4 43 mi59 min W 1.9 G 4.1 26°F 1039.3 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI10 mi64 minN 010.00 miOvercast25°F20°F83%1020.7 hPa
Port Hope, MI12 mi68 minSW 3 mi25°F18°F75%1021.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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N9W9NW7NW8W7W3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW3NW6NW8NW10NW5W5W5W7W4W6W7W9
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2 days agoS7S7S7S5S5S6S8S9S7S8S5S5SE3S4S6S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.