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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 319 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Today..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain during the day, then rain and snow Sunday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 081846 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 146 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
The mild weather this afternoon will continue into Saturday, where by Saturday afternoon temperatures will warm up well into the 50s. A low pressure system will cross the central Great Lakes and southern Canada, where a cold front will push across the region late Sunday.
Overall, this will bring a soaking rainfall to the area Saturday night into Sunday and with the passage of the front and cold air filtering in across the area late Sunday rain will change over to snow from west to east Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Visible satellite imagery depicts a few patches of upper level clouds across the region this afternoon with dry weather prevailing as a mid-level ridge builds east across the southern Great Lakes and consequently surface high pressure builds across the western portions of New England. Additionally, surface weather stations are reporting southerly flow supporting temperatures to climb. Current temperatures (ranging in the 40s) will continue to warm as highs today will range from the low 40s across the eastern Lake Ontario region to the low 50s along the Lake Erie shoreline.

The surface high will slide to the east and center across the Eastern Seaboard tonight, while the mid-level ridge axis will be overhead of the area. Additionally, a shortwave passage will pass by to the northwest of the area. Despite its passage, just some increased cloud cover is expected with dry conditions prevailing.
Also, southerly winds will persist tonight and prevent radiational cooling and therefore resulting in a mild night with lows ranging in the mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario and the low to mid 40s elsewhere.

Meanwhile to the west, the next deep mid-level trough spanning as far south as the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next round of active weather for later this weekend. This all being said, outside of increasing cloud cover Saturday dry weather will prevail throughout most of the day Saturday. Additionally, mild weather will continue and be warmer than today. Highs will warm up into the mid to upper 40s east of Lake Ontario with low to mid 50s across the western portions of the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A very active period as a deep trough will advance from the nation's mid section to across our region Monday morning. This trough will tap into both Atlantic moisture as well as Gulf of Mexico moisture, sending a plume of deep moisture across our region, moisture that will fuel a soaking rainfall across our region. Cold air rushing in behind a cold front Sunday night will yield an inch or two of wet snow, with potential for higher amounts across higher terrain.

Rain will push into WNY Saturday night with diffluent flow aloft, and lower level convergence on the nose of a 50 knot LLJ. This steady southerly flow Saturday night will keep overnight temperatures mild, with most areas only lowering into the mid to upper 40s. This will be close to 20 degrees above normal minimum temperatures. Rain will spread eastward to our eastern zones by around the midnight hour.

Models are settling in on a wavy frontal boundary with waves of low pressure moving along it Sunday into Monday morning. This front will be near central Lake Erie to start Sunday morning, keeping everyone with a mild start to the day. Heaviest rain on Sunday in the warm sector will occur where strongest moisture advection of abnormally high PWATs well over the 90th percentile occurs ahead of the front (eastern Finger Lakes northward to the eastern Lake Ontario region).
Additional lift will be generated aloft by jet streaks within a 110 knot jet at 300 hPa. By late Sunday night, areas on the Tug Hill may see up to 1.25 inches or more of liquid rainfall boosted by upslope flow. Farther west though, the gradient of QPF will be sharper with three quarters to an inch of rainfall likely. Latest MMEFS of the GEFS and NAEFS continues to highlight only the Black River in the North Country as possibly rising to action stage...and this would not be until later in the week as this river is a slow riser.

Temperatures will fall through the afternoon hours behind the front for WNY, while east of Lake Ontario temperatures will linger in the upper 40s through the afternoon hours.

As the next wave of low pressure lifts by on Sunday night to our east, there is good agreement that switch from rain to snow occurs as early as dusk Sunday evening for higher terrain of southwest NYS, then eventually through the evening for the rest of western NY with most locations to snow by midnight. Anafrontal look to this event with precipitation lingering through the night with CAA advection aloft. Feel the change from rain to snow will be sharp.

It is certainly possible winter headlines may eventually be needed for the change to wet snow Sunday night into Monday, with highest chances of that from Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and probably more so for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. In these spots, models and ensemble probability data suggest several inches of wet/sloppy snow could occur and it is here there is also higher signal for widespread moderate impacts on the latest Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (Prob WSSI).

Lower elevations will likely see much less snow, including the Buffalo to Rochester corridor. Away from the better convergence of the eastern surface low, and at a lower elevation these areas may only accumulate an inch or two of snow. Still with temperatures falling to just under the freezing mark, slippery spots are quite possible impacting the Monday morning commute. Additionally the prior period of rainfall will leave no time for pre-treating the roads, with this rain washing away any left over salt on the roads prior to the onset of snow.

Steady system snow exits fairly quickly on Monday. Though there will be some scattered leftover lake effect snow, at this point it appears to be light as it will be held down by limited deep moisture and less low-level cyclonic flow as ridge slips in quickly late Monday into Monday night. Does look like a seasonally cool day with a blustery NW wind within a tight surface pressure gradient. Even though winds will gust potentially to 35 mph, the wet snow will have little blowing and drifting.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Shallow lake effect snow Monday night southeast of the Lakes will drift northward with backing winds. Snow will end quickly with warm air advection aloft and advection of drier air. A diminished band may lift northward across Watertown Tuesday morning.

Rest of long term looks changeable. Modest warm up on Tuesday with gusty WSW winds that will be followed by cool down on Wednesday as a fairly sharp cold front drops across. Highest pops near the lakes for now but maybe a touch of light snow for all areas on Wednesday if this front ends up having a bit more punch than shown right now.
Another round of warm air advection starts up on Thursday as a fairly strong surface high pressure system pushes eastward from the Plains.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low clouds from this morning continue to scatter out across the North Country this afternoon. Otherwise, outside of a few upper level clouds across the northern Finger Lakes the area is seeing some breaks of sun.

Clouds will return late this afternoon and evening ahead of the next mid-level shortwave trough, though CIGS are expected to remain VFR, with the one exception being across the higher terrain (i.e. KJHW)
where MVFR conditions will be brief overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
South/southeasterly flow will freshen some this afternoon, through remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through much of Saturday.

A low pressure system passing across the central Great Lakes into southern Canada will support the next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday night through Monday as cold air advects into the lower Great Lakes in its wake. Winds will likely remain elevated through the middle of next week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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