Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 1:53 AM   Moonset 11:10 AM

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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 431 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Today - North winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Patchy fog this morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Saturday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 012204 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 604 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure across the western Great Lakes will ridge into our region, resulting in mainly dry weather through Friday morning.
A series of fronts will slide across the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday bringing the next round of rain showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Heading into the early evening hours, only remaining areas of low stratus and fog are now located over Lake Ontario, with most of that banked along the northern portion of the Lake near the Canadian shores. Otherwise, mild temperatures with a mix of sun and clouds through the remainder of the daylight hours.

Tonight, a shortwave will track across southern Quebec, with a weak surface low also passing to our north. For most areas this system will not have enough moisture or lift to produce any precipitation, except across the St. Lawrence Valley where a showers can't be ruled out tonight. Elsewhere, the passage of a weak cold front will only result in increasing cloud cover but not any precipitation. Weak high pressure will build back across the region Thursday afternoon and night, providing more fair weather and mostly clear skies.

Despite the weak cold frontal passage, temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Warm advection develops Friday as the flow turns southerly with the upper ridge parked over the area and a surface high centers off the Mid Atlantic coast. There will be increasing mid and upper cloud cover during the afternoon which may temper high temperatures a bit, but most readings should get into the 70s with some lower 80s for normally warmer interior sections of the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes.

Deepening moisture and the slow approach of the cold front will bring increasing chances for showers starting late Friday across far western New York. However, given the strong mid/upper ridge over the eastern CONUS ahead of a low which is closing off and lifting well northwest of the area into Minnesota and Canada, feel that the cold front may be even slower to enter the region than models suggest, which could delay precipitation chances until Friday night.

Fairly good model consensus brings a trough and weak frontal boundary slowly across the area Saturday into Saturday night.
This is likely to produce showers as it moves through, but there will be rain-free time between the showers also. Ample elevated instability to produce some widely scattered thunderstorms as well. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than a half inch, although locally higher amounts can't be ruled out. The clouds and showers will lead to cooler weather on Saturday, with highs in the 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers continue to start the long term period as a trough and frontal boundaries associated with a sfc low well to the north track across the area. Showers will taper off late Sunday afternoon from west to east with just a few lingering light showers and/or sprinkles for the eastern half of the area during the evening on Sunday.

Drier period expected later Sunday night into the first half of Tuesday as an area of high pressure and ridge builds into the region.

An occluding low over the north central portion of the CONUS will stall as its front pushes east toward the region. This will start to increase shower potential for western and north central NY during the mid day on Tuesday. Model guidance brings another area of low pressure north along the frontal boundary, further increasing the potential for showers and steadier rain across the area. Showers will then continue through the remainder of the period into at least the later portion of Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal through at least the middle of the week, with Sunday being the cooler day of the long term period.

AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Lingering low stratus and fog has retracted over the northern half of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR flight conditions for tonight through the first half of Thursday.

The exception is KART where lower CIGS of MVFR or lower are likely to move in off of Lake Ontario late tonight and into Thursday.
Elsewhere, a weak frontal passage will produce a broken cloud deck, but cloud bases are expected to remain in the VFR flight category.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers otherwise mainly VFR weather.
Monday...VFR.

MARINE
Weak pressure gradients are expected throughout the remainder of the week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Areas of fog on Lake Ontario lasting into tonight. While the week will remain quiet, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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