Monday, March1, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sackets Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:53PM Monday March 1, 2021 8:04 PM EST (01:04 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 8:12AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Expires:202011152310;;898662 Fzus71 Kbuf 152301 Mwsbuf Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 601 Pm Est Sun Nov 15 2020 Loz044-045-064-065-152310- /o.exp.kbuf.ma.w.0140.000000t0000z-201115t2300z/ 601 Pm Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning expired at 600 pm est... The affected areas were... Lake ontario from sodus bay to cape vincent... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Strong winds not related to Thunderstorms will continue tonight on lake ontario. Gale warnings are in effect. Lat...lon 4393 7608 4387 7609 4382 7618 4371 7616 4366 7610 4361 7615 4356 7616 4351 7620 4348 7629 4349 7640 4339 7659 4329 7667 4324 7697 4363 7697 4364 7679 4409 7644 4415 7634 4396 7601 time...mot...loc 2300z 270deg 58kt 4425 7602 4365 7615
LOZ045


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sackets Harbor, NY
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location: 43.95, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 020012 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 712 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

SYNOPSIS. Much colder air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes tonight, with lake effect snow showers producing minor accumulations southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. It will be quite windy tonight, especially southeast of Lake Ontario. This will set the stage for colder weather Tuesday when temperatures will remain below freezing, although high pressure will allow lake effect snow showers to end. We will experience a brief warm up on Wednesday ahead of another cold front, which will bring a return to colder weather to end the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The pockets of local/brief heavy snow showers from this afternoon have moved well east of our area, replaced by a spray of nuisance snow showers early this evening. The widespread post-frontal snow showers early this evening will give way to more narrow bands of lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes by late this evening.

Expansive high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley this evening will drift east to the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes during the course of tonight. This will aid in directing very cold air into our region with H85 temps falling to -20C to -24C. The cold sub arctic air will encourage some nuisance lake effect snow showers southeast of the Lakes on a northwest flow, especially during the first half of tonight, before drier air pushes in causing any lingering lake effect activity to slowly dwindle toward early Tuesday morning. Local accumulations of 1-3 inches are expected southeast of the lakes tonight. Off Lake Erie this will be across the higher terrain of northern Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties. Off Lake Ontario the more persistent snow will be from Orleans and Monroe counties eastward across Wayne County and also into the northern Finger Lakes.

It will remain quite windy through the first half of tonight as a belt of 40-50 knots of wind just off the deck crosses Lake Ontario and Central NY. This will produce surface wind gusts of 45-55 mph across much of the area east and southeast of Lake Ontario and into the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. The strongest gusts will occur this evening, with winds then gradually diminishing overnight.

The fresh cold airmass will also support a wind chill advisory for Lewis county, where wind chills will drop to a little colder than 20 below zero late tonight.

High pressure centered over the Ohio valley Tuesday morning will pass by to our south Tuesday afternoon. This will bring an end to any leftover nuisance lake snows early Tuesday. A warm front will move through the area Tuesday night with some light snow possible east of Lk Ontario.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As a clipper low continues to pass to the north Wednesday morning, lingering chances for light snow across the North Country will dwindle through the day. Otherwise, mostly dry weather along with a brief warmup expected for Wednesday as a warm front slides by to the north of the area. Highs will range from the mid 30s across the higher terrain to the low 40s elsewhere. Temperatures quickly begin to fall shortly after sundown as colder air begins filtering in on a northwesterly flow behind a weak cold front. Cooling 850mb temperatures will slowly raise lake effect chances southeast of the lakes through the night. Latest batch of model guidance has trended a bit slower with bringing in the colder air overnight--if this pattern holds, may not see much in the way of lake effect until closer to Thursday morning. Upslope flow may also trigger some light snow up on the Tug Hill overnight Wednesday as surface temperatures fall into the teens, with mid to low 20s elsewhere.

The amplification of an upper ridge over the Intermountain West and downstream blocking over Iceland will force the development of a deep trough over eastern third of the CONUS. Wrap around cold air advection will continue into Thursday as temperatures trend below normal. Despite the cooling temperatures and NW flow aloft, lake effect chances will remain low through the day and evening as the airmass becomes increasingly dry.

Increased mixing will allow for some breezier conditions Thursday afternoon and into the evening, particularly south of Lake Ontario. Combined with highs that will struggle to make it out of the 20s even on the lower terrain, wind chills will make temperatures feel closer to the teens and even single digits east of Lake Ontario during the day. Air temperature will bottom out in the teens Thursday night with single digit wind chills, even lower on the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Below normal temperatures likely for the first half of this period, then a gradual modification occurs into early next week.

While the initial first part of this period will likely feature below normal temperatures, there is some hint that it won't linger far into the first half of next week. What first looked like several day or longer of cold, has modified and is now advertising the gradual climb to near then above normal temperatures Sunday into next week. However, the degree to which it warms depends on which model of choice is preferred. The GFS is much more aggressive breaking down the Iceland block. This would allow the highly amplified ridge to our west to head east and initiate the faster warming trend. Whereas, the ECMWF keeps the deep trough overhead longer with several shortwaves bringing reinforcing shots of colder air. Have nudged temperatures up a bit from previous forecast reflecting a bit of the change in guidance but not going overly aggressive just yet.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Fairly widespread snow showers this evening will give way to more narrow bands of lake effect snow showers by late this evening southeast of the lakes. Off Lake Erie most of this will focus just north and east of KJHW across the western Southern Tier. Off Lake Ontario this will focus from near KROC east and southeast into the northern Finger Lakes. Any snow showers tonight will contain brief/local IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS, with mainly MVFR/VFR between the bands of snow.

It will remain very windy through the first half of tonight with gusts of 35 to 45 knots common along the Lake Ontario shore and Finger Lakes region. Winds will slowly diminish later tonight.

Any lingering snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday morning will end, with VFR VSBY areawide. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue through the morning before improving to mainly VFR in the afternoon.

Outlook .

Wednesday . VFR. Thursday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers. Friday and Saturday . Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers.

MARINE. Strong northwest winds behind a cold front will continue to produce a period of gales on Lake Ontario through this evening. Sustained winds will peak at or a little over 40 knots on the east half of the Lake before slowly diminishing late tonight. Winds are somewhat lower on Lake Erie, with Small Craft Advisory conditions lasting through Tuesday morning.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ001>008-011>014- 021. Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/RSH NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JM/RSH SHORT TERM . PP LONG TERM . AR AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock/RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 29 mi47 min 33°F1011.9 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi47 min WNW 38 G 50 24°F 1014.6 hPa14°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 63 mi47 min 17°F 1010.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi65 min WNW 25 G 41 25°F 1016.6 hPa (+4.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY9 mi69 minW 28 G 4110.00 miMostly Cloudy and Windy22°F4°F46%1012.2 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY24 mi69 minW 25 G 3810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Windy21°F3°F46%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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