Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, OR

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NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
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Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:34PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 5:36 AM PDT (12:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:201910162330;;788118 Fzus56 Kpqr 160950 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 250 Am Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-162330- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 250 Am Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
Today..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 14 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds. Rain.
Tonight..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 13 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves sw 5 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 16 seconds, building to 19 ft at 16 seconds in the afternoon. Showers and a chance of tstms.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 17 ft at 15 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 16 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and a chance of tstms.
Fri night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 5 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 14 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..W wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. NW swell 12 ft.
Sun..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 9 ft.
PZZ200 250 Am Pdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. The first in a series of fronts that will bring increasing gusty winds and high seas to the waters will move across the waters early this morning and then inland. Another front will arrive Thursday. A developing low pressure could move across the waters late Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence city, OR
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location: 44, -124.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 161047
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
347 am pdt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis The proverbial storm door is being thrown open this
morning for the pac nw, as the first in a series of wet and energetic
frontal systems moves onshore. This will begin a prolonged period of
wet and blustery weather that will last through the upcoming weekend.

Snow levels will flirt with cascade pass elevations late tonight
through the weekend, but the bulk of snow accumulation will occur
above the passes. The stormy weather pattern will drive high surf
along the coast, where breakers above 20 feet are likely by Thursday.

Short term Today through Friday... Latest satellite and radar
imagery shows a slow-moving atmospheric river of moisture beginning
to move onshore along the washington and northern oregon coastline.

This atmospheric river has a fetch of moisture which stretches all
the way southwest to hawaii, with NESDIS blended total precipitable
water (tpw) approaching 1.25" along the wa or coast. Dry offshore
flow had kept much of this moisture aloft, and layer integrated vapor
transport (ivt) time-heights based on the GFS and available via
scripps' cw3e page suggest much of the moisture transport had been
above 700 mb until roughly 06z. This likely explains why much of the
precipitation had been virga until just after midnight. However the
lower levels are moistening up quickly now along the coast, and
rainfall totals are already approaching 0.25" along the coast astoria
northward. The same process of moistening the low levels still needs
to occur inland, and indeed the same ivt time-height plot suggests
this will happen over the willamette valley shortly after 12z, or
just in time for rain to increase inland during this morning's
commute.

The current band of rainfall along the coast is more associated with
isentropic lift, rather than a well-defined thermal front. In fact,
looking at latest hrrr rap temperature analyses at 925 and 850 mb, it
is hard to pick out any significant baroclinicity along the stream of
moisture currently affecting the coast. In other words, the actual
cold front is further offshore than one would think by simply looking
at satellite and radar imagery, just having crossed buoy 46089 near
126w around 09z. This cold front is accelerating though, being pushed
along by a 140-150 kt zonal jet that is developing across the
northwest and north-central pacific. The approaching cold front will
eventually nudge the area of best isentropic lift and heaviest rain
eastward across the willamette valley this morning, then across the
cascades this afternoon. A second cold front approaching fast on the
first front's heels has a stronger thermal signature, but probably
will not sync up with the deepest moisture in time to maximize rain
rates while it sweeps across the forecast area later this afternoon
and evening. This should help avoid widespread urban and small stream
flooding, but there will probably still be localized issues
particularly in urban areas with poor drainage. Rainfall totals
through tonight will probably be on the order of 0.25 to 0.75 inch
for the inland valleys, heaviest north. For the coast, rain totals
through tonight will probably range from 1.50" along the S wa coast
to 0.50-0.75" down toward newport and florence. Higher terrain will
probably receive 1 to 2 inches by late tonight, perhaps locally a
little more than 2 inches in the willapa hills and S wa cascades
where orographic enhancement is best today and this evening.

As expected, the easterly component to the pressure gradient has kept
much of the coast under fairly light winds thus far. Suspect winds
will increase a bit later this morning into midday as the first cold
front moves onshore, but the strongest wind gusts will probably come
with the second cold front as it sweeps onshore and across the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. Winds aloft with this
system are not looking quite as strong as they had in previous model
runs, with only about 35-45 kt as low as 925 mb while the second
front moves onshore. Thus the coast can probably expect gusts to top
out at 35-45 mph immediately ahead of the second cold front this
afternoon, with 25-35 mph gusts further inland.

Southerly component of the surface pressure gradient increases
Wednesday night and Thursday, leading to mild and breezy conditions.

Meanwhile, cool air aloft will enhance the instability in the
atmosphere, which will likely provide for fairly widespread showers
on Thursday. Convective parameters are indeed rather favorable with
decent shear as well, so cannot rule out some thunderstorms and small
hail. A strong reinforcing shortwave drops across the region later
Thursday evening or night, which will likely bring another round of
steadier rain across the region overnight Thursday into early Friday.

The threat for thunderstorms will again return behind this front,
with the associated cold pool aloft enhancing instability and
reasonably strong shear again in place. This general pattern has been
known to produce some strong showers and storms over the coastal
water and near the coast, so will need to continue to keep a close
eye on trends in the convective parameters and convection-allowing
models over the coming days.

All this stormy weather will lead to the largest seas to impact the
coast since spring; a high surf advisory has been issued for the
coast Thursday afternoon and evening. More details on the high surf
can be found in the marine discussion below. Weagle cullen

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... A persistent low in the
gulf of alaska will continue to spin off upper level disturbances
that will travel south-southeast along the british columbia coast.

This pattern will keep precipitation in the extended forecast
through Tuesday. The first notable event will occur Friday with the
gfs showing 24-hr accumulations of over 2 inches in parts of the
cascades. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms associated
with this system as the GFS suggests an increase in instability
into Saturday morning.

Will need to keep a close eye on the potential for a strong low
pressure center to develop near the coast Friday night. A significant
and increasing number of models ensemble members suggest this will
occur as the left-exit region of the strong trans-pacific jet stream
noses toward the pac NW coast. For example, the 06z NAM shows a
compact low spinning up quickly inside of 130w late Friday, moving
onshore as a 988 mb low near hoquiam. This scenario would lead to
strong winds both along the coast and inland as the low moves onshore
and southerly pressure gradients increase. It is important to note
that this is just one of many possible scenarios, and there are still
many solutions which do not develop the low so fast and or take said
low too far north or south for our forecast area to feel strong
winds.

A second event will occur Monday night which looks to be of tropical
origin. The GFS shows 24-hr rain accumulations along the coast
reaching an inch while the northern cascades may see up to another
1.5 inches. There are minor differences in the long-term models on
the timing and amplitude of these events but the general pattern is
consistent. Temperatures will remain rather steady around 60 for the
highs and mid 40s for the low. weagle bphillips

Aviation A slow moving front will push into southwest
washington and northwest oregon through this afternoon with an
overall gradual deterioration of flight conditions. Langley hill
doppler radar at 0915z showed a large swath of precip just making
landfall with some heavier embedded precip just offshore. Expect
general MVFR or lower conditions along the coast through this
afternoon and possibly into Wed evening. Improvement toVFR is
likely around 06z Thu in the post-frontal air mass. Inland areas
to remainVFR through late morning, followed by increasing MVFR.

The tualatin river valley will be susceptible to low MVFR and
high end ifr conditions 18z to 00z thu. Improvement toVFR
between 03z and 06z Thu in the post-frontal air mass. Higher
terrain will become obscured as the front moves inland.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR at the terminal and vicinity at 09z.

Light precip pushing inland and steadier light rain should reach
the terminal between 14z and 17z. There will be enough e-se
surface wind to maintainVFR cigs. However, as precip intensifies
late morning MVFR conditions become more likely. A more unstable
air mass moves into the region this evening, which will promote
predominantVFR. Looked into the potential for llws this morning
and local guidance suggests any shear will not meet criteria.

This based on SE surface wind around 8 kt and s-sw wind 35 kt at
fl020. Weishaar

Marine A series of fronts will result in the most active
stretch of weather and biggest seas observed across our coastal
waters since at least last spring. Gusts 30-35 kt have been noted
at the main buoys, 46089, 46029 and 46050, early this morning.

The 00z model guidance is in line with the previous few runs
showing 30-35 kt boundary layer wind speeds across the waters
early afternoon. The higher wind speeds become confined to the
inner waters late this afternoon. Will continue with the current
gale warnings.

A second frontal system follows on the heels of the first, moving
through the waters late this afternoon and evening. Expect solid
small craft advisory level wind speeds this evening through thu.

An interesting wrinkle has shown up in the 06z NAM in the 00z to
12z Sat time frame. The latest NAM develops a substantial surface
low, sub 990 mb, just off the south washington coast 06z sat.

This 00z GFS and ECMWF have a hint of this feature, but not
nearly as deep. Will need to watch future runs to see the
evolution of this feature. Should the 06z NAM verify, strong
gales to even storm force wind would be possible.

Seas will continue to build over the next 48 hours, peaking
around 20 ft late Wed night and continuing through Thu evening.

Dominant periods of 15-16 seconds and minimal, if any, incidence
angle to the coastline (i.E. Swell direction around 270 deg),
will result in total wave flux energy just exceeding our 100 unit
criteria for high surf. Seas to remain in the mid to high teens
thu night through fri.

Additional fronts, although none that appear abnormally strong
for the time of the year, appear on tap Sunday and then again at
some point early next week. These should keep seas above or at
least flirting with 10 ft into early next week. In addition,
small craft advisory level south to southwesterly wind gusts of
25 to 30 kt certainly appear possible ahead of each. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for central
oregon coast-north oregon coast.

Wa... High surf advisory from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for south
washington coast.

Pz... Gale warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Thursday for columbia river
bar.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 27 mi36 min 57°F10 ft
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 43 mi36 min SE 7 G 8.9 56°F
46097 45 mi166 min S 18 55°F 53°F1010.5 hPa
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 46 mi60 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 50°F1012.2 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR40 mi40 minSSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F46°F80%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S5SE4SE8SE85SW5SE7S5W8SW7W6SW5S5S5S3S3S8S8SE7SE5S5S7SE6
1 day agoCalmE3SE3CalmCalmW4N5NW8N9N13
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Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Entrance
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Wed -- 02:25 AM PDT     6.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:00 AM PDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:13 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:56 PM PDT     7.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:46 PM PDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.45.66.26.25.64.53.42.62.32.63.54.86.177.36.95.94.42.71.30.40.20.81.9

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
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Wed -- 03:27 AM PDT     5.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:31 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:06 AM PDT     1.92 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:58 PM PDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:52 PM PDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.645.15.75.75.14.13.12.31.92.234.25.56.46.76.45.44.12.61.30.40.20.6

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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.