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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1106 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est Monday...
Overnight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain late this evening, then rain and snow late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain and snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the evening. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of snow showers in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.

ANZ100 1106 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm northeast winds will peak this evening and overnight as low pressure passes just outside of the gulf of maine. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected on the waters much of the week. A short period of low end small craft winds will be possible Wednesday or Wednesday night.

FXUS61 KGYX 040425 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1125 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track through the eastern Great Lakes this evening, spreading rain and snow across the region. Significant snowfall is forecast across the foothills and points northward with a rain/snow mix elsewhere. There remains potential for impacts into the Monday morning commute due to wintry conditions. Accumulating snow tapers off Monday evening with snow showers lingering through Monday night. A drying trend follows into mid week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/

1125PM Update...Little change to the going forecast at this time. The HRRR is continuing to advertise snowfall rates picking up into the overnight hours as the primary wave crosses through. Rates could exceed one inch per hour at times, mainly across central and northern NH...over into interior Maine, especially into the foothills and mountains.

730PM Update...No changes to the overall forecast with this update. Just a couple of minor edits to temps and dewpoints over the next couple of hours based on trends.

Previous...

A winter storm is underway this afternoon as low pressure tracks north of the Ohio Valley this evening. This low is forecast to track through Lake Ontario, before becoming a inverted trough with low pressure consolidating outside of the Gulf of Maine through Monday. Not much has changed from this morning's package.

For tonight, precipitation will continue. Precip types have favored snow once precip rates increase. This makes sense given the cool 925mb temps and surface temps just a few degrees above freezing for much of the area. Temps in the mid to lower 30s are expected to fall to around freezing for much of the area tonight, and this will promote the bulk of the area flipping to all snow. Points that may see more in the way of rain will be the immediate Maine coast down to SE NH. Here the coastal front may stay just a tad inland, particularly through the NH Seacoast to keep precip mainly rain.

A few miles in from the coast, snow may fall for much of the event. However, ratios and the ability for the snow to accumulate may be hampered by the moderate temps. Moving inland to into interior areas, this is where snow accum will pick up, and be a heavy/wet consistency. Up to 4 to 6 inches will be possible here, making it a potentially stressful cleanup come Monday morning.

The greatest amounts will be found in the foothills and mountains, where all snow is anticipated, and closer to climo norm snow ratios are forecast. Local vis is already reduced to a half or quarter miles in spots thanks to the strengthening low, terrain convergence, and a saturated DGZ. Portions of this area may well see a foot of snow, perhaps more through the day Monday at higher elevation.

Into early Monday morning, guidance is showing what appears to be a deformation axis or comma head of precip settling across northern New Hampshire through western ME and towards the ME Capitol Region. Timing would fall close to the beginning of the morning commute, and patience/care cannot be stressed enough.
Snow rates may be the greatest during this period, perhaps around 1 in per hour. This will also reduce visibility.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The bulk of accumulating snow will be exiting the area by 10am Mon morning. With the loss of upper level moisture and cloud ice, drizzle or flurries may be left behind through early afternoon. This will first be noticeable across southern NH, and pulling through Portland area and central Maine through noon.

With the low transitioning to an inverted trough across the area, there will be remaining low level moisture and minor forcing factors. In general, the deepest moisture remains across northern NH and western ME through the day, prolonging snow, and adding additional light accums. Elsewhere will depend on pockets of lift to generate measurable precip outside snizzle or drizzle. This lift may increase come Monday evening, providing another shot of widespread light snow for the region overnight.
There is some uncertainty of enhancement along coastal front features such as the NAMnest and HRRR suggest. Little confidence is there to pinpoint this QPF at this time, but can't rule out some lingering accums overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Little change to the going forecast as currently focusing on current storm. Deterministic and ensemble output hasn't changed much for the Tue-Weekend period. Some members indicate that inverted trough may hang around into Wednesday with some light snow for southeast zones. Will have to continue to watch trends in this mostly mesoscale feature. Otherwise, warm front moves toward the region Fri-Sat. Some indications that a significant low pressure system affects the region Sun-Mon but we are a long way out. But we'll continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...Most terminals will remain IFR tonight through Monday. Periods of LIFR will be possible combined with low vis, especially in regions of SN across central and northern NH, and much of interior Maine. Winds will slowly drift E to N through Monday and monday night. Light snow continues with some drizzle Monday.

Long Term...Lingering low cigs and SHSN will bring potential for MVFR and at times IFR Tue morning. Conditions improve as Tuesday progresses while there may be some lingering MVFR cigs. Mainly VFR will prevail Wednesday into Thursday except perhaps a period of MVFR across southernmost ME and southeastern NH depending on where trough sets up.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds will peak around 30kt this evening and overnight as low pressure nears the coast. These will decrease Monday afternoon to around 15 kt, becoming 20 kt from the north Mon night.

Long Term...Low chance of SCA conditions Wed-Wed night, otherwise relatively tranquil on the waters Tue-Fri.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for MEZ007>009- 012>014-020>022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for MEZ018-019- 033.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MEZ025>028.
NH...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for NHZ001-002-004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NHZ003- 005>010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ151-153.

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Bowdoinham
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Sun -- 05:42 AM EST     5.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:39 AM EST     1.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:54 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:43 PM EST     5.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bowdoinham, Cathance River, Maine, Tide feet

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:59 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:36 AM EST     0.74 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:32 AM EST     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:49 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:40 PM EST     0.73 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:57 PM EST     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current, knots

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