Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bowdoinham, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
10:00AM UPDATE...Forecast is in good shape, fog has quickly diminished along the coast with only a few of the outer islands still in the marine layer at this hour. Looking like a real nice day today with clear skies and breezy conditions, no sensible weather impacts through the day. Enjoy!

6:44AM UPDATE...Minor tweak to the forecast with stubborn fog that developed along the I-95 corridor from Seacoast NH to the Kennebec River Valley and down to Midcoast Maine. The boundary layer is drying this morning and as the sun rises mixing will take shape and low clouds/fog will dissipate. No other changes.

Previous Discussion...
500mb shortwave energy is pivoting through Northern New England this morning with surface high pressure to our southwest.
Morning fog due to moisture trapped in the boundary layer will mix out as the sun rises this morning. W-NW flow today will be a dry flow out of Quebec into the region. Most locations across central and southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine will be a downslope wind off the terrain and expecting mainly sunny skies.
Upslope areas of the White Mtns and Longfellow Mtns will experience some mostly cloudy skies with stable air being forced up. Cannot rule out an isolated sprinkle especially across the upslope locations of Franklin and Somerset counties but any mountain there is a potential sprinkle. On the dry and sunny downslope side of the mountains expecting a decently mixed atmosphere up to 5kft. Modeled soundings showing the mixed layer tapping into 15-25kt winds aloft around 900mb. Watching the fire weather concerns across southern New Hampshire in the Monadnock, Merrimack, Lakes and interior Seacoast regions.
Additionally, watching the very dry conditions into interior southwest Maine. Opted to mix in some NBM 10th percentile for dew points and based on this resulting in afternoon minimum RHs around 20-30 percent in these regions. Winds gusting 10-25mph with these low RHs pose some fire weather concern. Elsewhere, despite the dry conditions RHs will be higher in the 35-45 percent range. High temperatures top out in the mid to upper 60s across Southern New Hampshire with some 70F readings in Merrimack region like Manchester and Nashua. Expecting low to mid 60s for Lakes Region of New Hampshire into southern Kennebec Valley of Maine. Across northern New Hampshire into the northwest mountains of Maine expecting upper 40s to mid 50s with cool upslope winds. upper 50s to low 60s for the Midcoast of Maine.

Tonight, high pressure drifts off from Cape Cod as the 500mb flow generally flattens of the area. Expecting temperatures to fall back into the 30s for most locations, low 30s north and upper 30s south. Warm spots in the low 40s for the Merrimack and Seacoast of New Hampshire. Winds will be light and variable with mainly clear skies.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
High pressure continues to drift south of Georges Bank in the Atlantic as an approaching 500mb trof slides over Quebec. The day will be mainly dry for most locations till late afternoon as the chance of rain showers increases from the NW mainly across the northern 1/2 of the CWA Winds turn S-SW tomorrow with moisture advecting off the Gulf of Maine. Across the mountains expecting highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Coastal Maine into the Midcoast and Kennebec Valley will be in the low 60s thanks to winds off the waters. Southern & south-central New Hampshire into the Lakes region of Maine will warm up into the upper 60s to low 70s thanks to the SW winds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
03Z Update... No significant changes to the long term as models are in good agreement on scattered showers Thursday night, with more widespread rain likely on Saturday.

Previous Discussion...
Overview: High pressure rotates into the open Atlantic Friday.
Low pressure passes through the Great Lakes and towards New England Friday night into Saturday. This will bring our best chance of rain through the period as high pressure returns for early next week.

Details: Dry weather continues through Friday as high pressure continues into the open Atlantic. Clear skies and decoupling could bring temps into the lower 40s or upper 30s.

A weak shortwave trough will pass across Northern Maine on Friday night bringing the potential for scattered rain showers and even a rumble of thunder.

Return flow increases Friday afternoon as low pressure enters the Great Lakes. Confidence is high that this system will eventually bring rain chances to the forecast area this weekend, but there are still differences in how the system progresses east. Trends today have the center of low pressure tracking south of the CAN/US border, bringing the QPF max through a portion of the CWA This may harbor some convective elements, particularly if it passes Saturday afternoon/evening. While rain processes may be accentuated here, the low will be progressive.
Drier conditions would be moving back in through Sunday morning.
High pressure returns for early next week, this one a bit more broad than we see midweek this week.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Short Term...Early IFR/LIFR due to low cigs/fog at coastal terms this AM. Today VFR conditions expected through Friday.
Some gusty winds are possible from the northwest on today. A few showers are possible across Northern & Central terms Late Thursday into Thursday night.

Long Term...Next organized system is expected by the weekend with IFR conditions returning by Friday night.

MARINE
Short Term...Off shore flow expected through today with seas and winds remaining below SCA conditions. Quite weather continues through Friday with high pressure in control. A low pressure system approaches by Saturday with increasing southwest winds.

Long Term...Saturday rain and fog is expected with the potential for SCA conditions. Low pressure departs by Saturday night with high pressure returning in its wake on Sunday with off- shore flow.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.