Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bowdoinham, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Update...Expanded coverage and sped up the timing on likely PoP for much of the area. An area of rain with embedded heavier downpours is moving along north of the warm front and I have gone with highest PoP there. To the west showers along and ahead of the cold front are starting to move into the area and I have favored keeping PoP more likely for that area as convection wanes a bit with loss of daytime instability. Otherwise no major changes to the forecast.

Previous discussion...Main sfc low passes well to our N and W tonight into Tue, but it will bring a couple rounds of rain showers to the region although not everywhere will see some showers from each round. First set of rain showers, comes in from the west this evening, on the WAA at the warm frontal part of the system. Showers move into W zones around sunset, although given the dry air in place, they will be light initially, but should spread across most of the CWA by midnight or shortly after. Will have to watch for development of a triple point across central zones after midnight, which could produce some more convective showers across S NH and the ME during the pre- dawn, and QPF in this area could end in third to one half inch range in some spots overnight, while to the N, it should be below a quarter inch. Lows will fall into the 40s across much of the CWA, may some upper 30s in the mtns.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Most of the rain in S NH will end by around 12Z, with some showers though mid morning in W ME. The ME mtns and E zones first round of showers should end by noon, but there’s a chance for another round of showers in the E mid to late afternoon as weak upper level trough moves through, along with weak cold front. Given that the triple point will cross through the center of the CWA Tue morning, some of the CWA /southern areas, especially S NH and CT vly/ are likely to see some clearing and break out in the warm sector, with highs 65-70, but as you head E, it will take longer to clear and in the far E zone it probably won;t clear at all, so highs there will be around 50.
Clouds will linger in the E and the mtns Tue evening, but should start to break up after midnight, with lows from the upper 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Overview: High pressure rotates through New England Thursday, moving into the open Atlantic Friday. Low pressure passes through the Great Lakes and towards New England Friday night into Saturday. This will bring our best chance of rain through the period as high pressure returns for early next week.

Details: Mid-level jet will be overhead Wednesday morning ahead of broadening high pressure. This will keep the drying trend intact from exiting disturbance early week, slowly diminishing any remaining mountain showers through the morning. Dry weather continues through Friday as high pressure continues into the open Atlantic. Highs remain nearly steady in the 60s to around 70. Did go lower than NBM Wednesday night across the southern forecast area. Clear skies and decoupling could bring temps into the lower 40s or upper 30s.

Return flow increases Friday afternoon as low pressure enters the Great Lakes. Confidence is high that this system will eventually bring rain chances to the forecast area this weekend, but there are still differences in how the system progresses east. Trends today have the center of low pressure tracking south of the CAN/US border, bringing the QPF max through a portion of the CWA This may harbor some convective elements, particularly if it passes Saturday afternoon/evening. While rain processes may be accentuated here, the low will be progressive.
Drier conditions would be moving back in through Sunday morning.
High pressure returns for early next week, this one a bit more broad than we see midweek this week.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term.. MVFR moves in after midnight, and will likely see a few hours of IFR in the pre-dawn into the first part of Tue morning. All terminals should be back to VFR, except KAUG/KRKD, which will likely at MVFR-IFR through the day, with improvement expected Tue night.

Long Term...VFR Wed - Friday. Low pressure advancing towards the area this weekend will bring a chance for RA. LLWS may be possible ahead of a warm front Friday night into Saturday morning.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds increase from the S this evening, and could push up to near SCA gusts tonight into Tue morning, but should peak in the 20-25 kt range before switching W and diminishing Tue afternoon and evening.

Long Term...Conditions remain below SCA criteria mid to late week as high pressure transits New England and passes into the open Atlantic. Low pressure nears New England Saturday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.