Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Henry, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 209 AM EDT Saturday...Widespread showers are moving across most of the region except south central Vermont and quickly exiting with a gap of about two hours until the next area of showers arrives. Model guidance does not quite capture these radar trends in terms of PoPs, but have tried to tweak them to better represent definite precipitation trending towards low chances over the next few hours. Then when the next area of showers arrives, it remains questionable if any thunder will persist. Given how lightning has become non-existent over our region and the progged MUCAPE looks marginal for lightning in the North Country, have removed thunder chances with this update. Will monitor and may adjust as it approaches northern New York towards 4 AM.

Previous discussion below: Unsettled weather will begin to move into the region this evening into tonight with unseasonable warmth. Thunderstorm chances remain during the overnight period, but chances this evening are decreasing. Winds will continue to be breezy, with increasing strength by tomorrow.

Clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms are tracking out of Ontario, but with significant dry air ahead of it, little to no accumulation is expected this afternoon/evening. After sunset, surface moisture will recover with moisture increasing as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Dry air and lessening CAPE values will help limit any thunderstorm activity from this initial round of showers with most shower activity confined to the northern portions of the region, particularly in northern New York.

By late this evening, more clusters of showers and thunderstorms will move from the southwest into the region. This decaying area of thunderstorms will be the remnants of the convection over the Great Lakes earlier today. As instability aloft increases overnight from an elevated mixed layer, the probability of thunder will increase in a narrow spatial corridor near the international border. Soundings show most of the CAPE is surface based, and thus any chances for hail will be low to none. Briefly heavy rainfall is possible, especially in northern New York with QPF amounts near a quarter to locally a half inch of rain, with sharply lower amounts to the south.
Temperatures overnight will not drop much from this afternoon due to the shower activity with values in the mid-50s across the area. Thunderstorm probabilities will decrease towards sunrise as the elevated mixed layer erodes and moves east.

Lingering scattered showers will still be possible through Saturday morning ahead of a cold front. Strong southerly waa in the Champlain Valley will help drive temperatures to near 70 degrees in the warm sector on Saturday. As the cold front approaches the area by Saturday afternoon, westerly wind gusts could be gusty at times up to 40 mph, especially across northern Clinton and Franklin Counties in New York. Gusts will continue through Saturday night with lows falling back to near freezing in the Adirondacks and near 40 in the valleys under modest caa.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...Breezy conditions will continue on Sunday as frontal system departs to our east and ridge of surface high pressure builds in from the west. The strongest winds on Sunday will be in the downslope areas east of the Green Mountains. No precipitation is expected. Winds will calm down Sunday night as high pressure ridges into the area. Maximum temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 40s to around 50, with minimum temperatures Sunday night dipping into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...Next approaching system will be entering the Great Lakes region on Monday, some warm air advection precipitation associated with the warm front will reach our western zones later in the day Monday. Widespread rain showers are then expected for Monday night as cold front crosses our area with low pressure system passing to our north.
Precipitation will wind down on Tuesday and upper level flow will become flattened out and progressive headed into the middle of the week. High pressure will build into the area mid week and warming temperatures are anticipated. Towards the end of the week models diverge and it's less certain what weather we have in store.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...An area of VFR light rain with localized 4SM visibilities is currently moving across the airspace north of RUT. Behind this shower activity, there will be a break between 07Z and 09Z from west to east of a couple hours, followed by potentially more showers, especially northernmost terminals. Like the previous activity, thunderstorm chances are relatively low as convection weakens, but will monitor as this currently shows slightly deeper cloud tops than the previous batch that did not produce lighting at our area terminals. More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon ahead of cold front, but again confidence of thunderstorms is too low to indicate in TAFs. Greatest chances would be at RUT where greater destabilization is favored. Ceilings will trend lower, especially behind the front as winds turn west-northwesterly towards 00Z and beyond.

Increasing southwest winds at 2000 ft agl of 40 to 50 knots is producing areas of low level wind shear as surface winds are generally light aside from at BTV. Between 12Z and 16Z, winds will gradually veer and increase areawide to 10 to 15 knots sustained with gusts 20 to 28 knots. This will at least limit LLWS.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
Several sites have a chance to tie their record High Minimum temperature this Saturday.

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 19: KBTV: 56/1914 KPBG: 55/1976 KSLK: 50/1976

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.