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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 1149 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy with scattered light snow showers and isolated showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy. Scattered light snow showers in the evening, then isolated light snow showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Isolated light snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 101030 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 530 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

AVIATION

Low VFR/High MVFR clouds should remain in place through tomorrow morning as cold west-northwest flow persists. Although confidence does diminish overnight into Monday morning, and certaintly could see some clearing.

A surface trough swinging through this afternoon will likely trigger widely scattered snow/rain showers, trending straight snow by the end of the day. A very brief interval of IFR vsby possible. Little in the way of accumulation expected with temperatures solidly above freezing through mid evening. A slight chance of snow showers (~15 percent) persists overnight which could lead to a coating of snow.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceilings aob 5000 feet through this evening, then medium-low.

* High for precip type being rain/melting snow today becoming straight snow in evening and beyond.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

DISCUSSION...

An upper wave now churning over eastern Wisconsin will dampen as it lifts across northern Lower Mi this morning. Secondary mid level short wave energy trailing this initial wave will advance across Se Mi late this afternoon/evening and will maintain broader mid level troughing across the Great Lakes region through tonight. While there is ongoing post frontal low level cold air advection this morning, the rate of cooling in the boundary layer is being tempered by increasing low level mixing/steepening lapse rates. This will result in a slow drop in sfc temps into the mid/upper 30s today. Growing depth of cold air across the lakes will continue to activate the lake effect today. The westerly flow will veer toward northwest today, which will limit the extent of lake effect into Se Mi. The wave lifting across the northern lakes this morning will drive a sfc trough into Se Mi early this afternoon. Convective cloud depths may however struggle to activate ice nucleation, limiting precip potential. Cloud depths will increase late in the afternoon and evening as the secondary short wave drives colder 850mb temps into the area. This will increase chances for ice nucleation in the clouds and suggests scattered/30 percent chance of showers within the backdrop of mid level height falls. Boundary layer temps and wet bulb zero heights suggest precip type will be rain/melting snow this afternoon and wet snow this evening, with the expected coverage/intensity suggesting little to no impacts.

With the mid level trough passing east of the area on Monday, mid level confluence/subsidence will expand across Lower Mi. There is likely to be ample lake clouds trapped under a deepening low level inversion, with the clouds holding temps in the 30s. The low level flow will back toward the southwest late Monday/Monday night, driving a warmer and drier low level airmass into Se Mi which will promote a clearing trend. Despite this, nocturnal cooling will be limited by the strengthening gradient.

An upper level low forecast to rotate from central Canada into northern Ontario on Tuesday will drive a cold front across the Great Lakes. This front is forecast to weekend as moves south into the more zonal flow across the southern lakes. Lack of moisture depth along this boundary suggest the main impacts will likely be an increase in clouds and a slight cooling trend by mid week. Expansive high pressure will affect much of the eastern US by the end of the week and will ensure a dry forecast to end the work week.

MARINE...

Cold air advection is settling into the region with another cold front expected to move through the region today. Winds will turn out of the northwest this afternoon with in the wake of the front, which will also bring increasing waves and lake effect snow showers across Lake Huron through today. Wind gusts approach 30 knots and will continue to maintain higher wave action across Outer Saginaw Bay and northern portions of the Thumb. This will keep Small Craft Advisories in effect through today as waves build into across central and southern Lake Huron. Brief lull in stronger winds expected Monday with mainly 25 knots or below before another strong low pressure system swings across northern Ontario and Hudson Bay late Monday night into early Tuesday. This system will send another cold front through the region and another round of potential gales, mainly across Lake Huron, with the southwest to west winds beginning Tuesday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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