Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 9:47 PM   Moonset 6:03 AM

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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 351 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.Friday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy in the evening, then showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 250807 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 407 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for all of southeast MI through 8 AM as temperatures remain into the mid to upper 20s.

- Dry conditions with a warming trend bring high temperatures to the 50s today and 60s on Friday.

- Showers are likely Friday night into Saturday morning with breezy and warm conditions this weekend. There is low confidence in shower and thunderstorm potential for the latter half of Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

An extremely dry air mass is in place, characterized by PWAT of 0.14" observed in the 00z DTX sounding. For context, this is the lowest late April PWAT recorded at our site since 00z 4/26/2000 per SPC climatology. No surprise that skies are clear this morning and temps have dropped well into the 20s away from the lakeshore and urban footprint. The Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 AM.
With high pressure parked overhead, temperature advection will be nil today but do expect the abundant sunshine to bring a notable improvement to the brisk conditions from yesterday. High temps in the mid 50s look on track this afternoon with light wind mainly out of the east. Lows tonight look to settle to the lower to mid 30s.
Modest lake moisture flux within the easterly flow and more of a gradient tonight will prevent another widespread hard freeze, but areas of frost are certainly plausible.

On Friday, a low pressure system will strengthen over the central Plains in response to a strong mid-level wave passing over the Rockies. This amplifies the ridge axis in place over the Great Lakes and maintains dry and stable conditions through the daylight hours.
High clouds will steadily increase over the course of the day as the Plains system's warm conveyor begins to advance in from the west.
Better low-level moisture advection should hold off until the LLJ veers into the southern Great Lakes, likely after dark Friday evening. This air stream will have origins in the western Gulf and will rapidly moisten the column with PWATS rising in excess of 1 inch overnight. A band of showers will likely pivot through overnight into Saturday morning as the LLJ drives a corridor of strong warm/moist ascent up the progressing warm frontal slope.
Models continue to suggest some embedded thunderstorms will be possible given the strong upward vertical motion. Lapse rates near moist adiabatic will offer little elevated instability and a strong near-surface stable layer will result from the elevated warm advection, thus severe storms are not anticipated.

As the Plains wave eventually tracks from the Upper Midwest into Ontario on Saturday, it will weaken and shear across the longwave ridge over the eastern half of North America and modest height rebounds are likely across the Great Lakes. We will be positioned within the warm sector as the surface low races well to our north, leaving its cold front draped nearly stationary across the western Great Lakes. This feature will be the main forcing mechanism for convective activity on Saturday afternoon, and think the brunt of it will remain to our north and west. However, there will remain at least a chance of showers and storms Saturday afternoon as the sfc- 850mb theta-e ridge moves in with relatively weak capping in place.
MLCAPE building to around 500 J/kg with a belt of 40 kt southwesterlies aloft will bring the potential for stronger storms if convection does fire, especially late in the day. SPC has highlighted parts of the region in a Day 3 Marginal Severe Risk.
Temperatures will trend up to the mid 70s for a high and breezy southwest wind looks to gust around 25 to 30 mph.

A second low pressure system develops over the Plains on Sunday and tracks northeast along the stalled frontal boundary into the Midwest. Have high confidence in another day spent in the warm sector with temps well into the 70s - possibly 80s for some spots.
Lower confidence exists on convective trends at this stage. Models have varying depictions of placement/strength of the LLJ and potential for a secondary warm frontal passage which would be the main forcing mechanism. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will likely undergo another period of modest amplification as the low deepens well to the west, and this may provide a less favorable background environment for convection. Will hold on to the inherited chance/likely PoPs but can expect significant revisions for this period as we glean additional insight. Higher confidence does exist in cold frontal passage on Monday that will likely direct a round of showers and storms across the area. Only weak cold advection is shown behind this system so expect above normal temps through the bulk of next week.

MARINE

The influence of high pressure will maintain lighter wind speeds through the day into tomorrow morning. Low pressure, derived from the Panhandle of Texas, will then fill in across the western Midwest, while the aforementioned high pressure system settles over New England. This will strengthen the pressure gradient across the Great Lakes, bringing elevated winds and gust potential centered Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. The peak gust potential is expected by Saturday morning, where gusts just shy of gales, or occasional gust to gales, will be possible across Lake Huron. Very stable over-lake conditions will be in place during this time as warm air filters over the cooler waters, so the expectation is that the increased stability will help prevent sustained mixing of gust to gales. Widespread showers with some rumbles of thunder will be likely Lake Friday into Saturday morning as a warm front moves over the region.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1137 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

AVIATION...

High pressure across the northern Great Lakes will expand across southern Michigan overnight. Dry air will ensure mainly clear skies tonight and Thursday morning. There is some remnant clouds over central Lake Erie. Recent model soundings are indicating that some of this moisture will advance into metro Detroit late Thurs morning, possibly resulting in FEW to SCT clouds aob 4k ft. The gradient will remain light through the day Thursday, supportive of east- southeasterly winds under 10 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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