Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Three Mile Bay, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:20PM Friday August 7, 2020 2:22 PM EDT (18:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 8:50AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 108 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Overnight..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..East winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:202008070945;;055310 FZUS51 KBUF 070508 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 108 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-070945-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Three Mile Bay, NY
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location: 44.04, -76.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 071522 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1122 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbance will produce a few scattered showers today, mainly from the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes to Central NY. High pressure will then build back into the eastern Great Lakes this weekend with mainly dry and warm weather. Monday will be very warm and humid before a weak cold front brings a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Weak disturbance moving through the region today may support a few showers over the Finger Lakes and portions of Southern Tier. Otherwise fair and pleasant with temps near normal.

Any showers will taper off from west to east tonight with departing disturbance. Clearing to lead to some valley fog.

High pressure over the region Saturday. This should guarantee fair dry weather in the west with only a slight chc for instability shower from Finger Lakes east.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Quiet weather with continued warming for the second half of the weekend with high pressure over the area to start the period, slowly migrating toward the East Coast by late Sunday night. Despite a weak upper level shortwave moving across the area Sunday, instability will remain in check, which should limit any diurnal shower/storm activity. Temperatures and humidity will continue to trend upward, with highs Sunday mainly in the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Hot and humid conditions to start the work week, along with increasing chances for showers and storms, centered on Monday night and Tuesday.

A southwesterly return flow of much warmer, more humid air will ensue on Monday as surface high pressure slides off the East Coast. Expecting a mainly dry, hot and humid start to the week. However, a weak upper level impulse will approach from the central Great Lakes Monday afternoon. This feature combined with diurnal heating and increasing instability may be enough to pop a few storms across areas west of the Genesee Valley later in the day Monday. Otherwise, highs on Monday could reach ~90F across portions the lake plains, Genesee Valley and and northern Finger Lakes region. Given the increasing dewpoints to around 70F, could edge near or into low-end heat advisory criteria. At the least, apparent temps will reach the lower 90s across a good chunk of the lower elevations.

Heights aloft begin to fall off some Monday night, signaling the start of an unsettled period of weather for later Monday evening through Tuesday as upper level trough swings through. At the surface, primary cold front expected to cross late Monday night into Tuesday. Timing is a bit earlier than previous guidance has been advertising. Lead shortwave could bring a period of showers and storms in as early as Monday night, especially across western NY. Still looks like the best chance/greatest coverage for showers and storms will be on Tuesday as the cold front crosses the region. Some of the storms Tuesday may be on the stronger side. That said, if the front moves through earlier in the day, this could limit chances for stronger storms, especially for western areas. This is just something that will need to be monitored going forward.

A few showers may linger through the first part of Tuesday night, before high pressure builds into the region, bringing a return to mainly dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. There are some indications in the latest guidance that the surface front may stall out somewhere across Pennsylvania during the mid week timeframe. There will also be weak troughing aloft during this time. Either of these features may be enough to spark a few showers/storms, especially during peak heating and/or if there are any stronger embedded shortwaves rotating through in the base of the trough which is certainly possible, but hard to pin down as this point.

The cooling behind the front will be much less notable than what we experienced this week as highs by the middle of next week only settle back into the lower to middle 80s. However, it will not be as humid as early in the week.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Fair VFR weather through this evening . although a few showers will be possible across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions.

Later tonight . expect some patchy fog . especially in the valleys of the Srn Tier. The latter should become extensive enough for IFR conditions at KJHW after 08z.

Outlook .

Saturday . Local IFR in morning fog, otherwise VFR. Sunday through Monday . Mainly VFR. Tuesday . Showers and thunderstorms likely. Brief MVFR/IFR possible.

MARINE. Northeast winds in the 12-15 knot range will continue today on Lake Erie, producing choppy conditions especially southwest of Sturgeon Point. Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. East to northeast winds will increase a little on Lake Ontario as well, with a light chop along the south shore of the lake. Light winds will return for Saturday as high pressure builds back into the eastern Great Lakes. A southwest wind will increase Sunday on Lake Erie and the western end of Lake Ontario, but conditions are expected to remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . RSH SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . RSH MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 24 mi53 min 1021 hPa
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 40 mi83 min NE 7.8 G 7.8 71°F 75°F1021.1 hPa (-0.3)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi53 min N 9.9 G 12 74°F 1020.7 hPa58°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 59 mi53 min 75°F 73°F1021.2 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 92 mi83 min NE 9.9 G 13 71°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY9 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair79°F53°F41%1020.4 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY24 mi27 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds78°F54°F44%1020.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW95SW5SW4W4CalmSE3CalmE3CalmE3E4CalmE3E4E3E3CalmCalm3Calm53Calm
1 day agoSW15
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W11W6W4CalmCalmCalmSE4S3SE4CalmCalm3W56SW6SW8W5
2 days agoE3NE7NE7NE5NE5CalmCalmS5SW4W6S3CalmS3SW6S6S9
G41
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W11W16
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W15W16
G26
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G28

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.