Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Three Mile Bay, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 5:57PM Thursday March 4, 2021 7:55 PM EST (00:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 634 Am Est Thu Mar 4 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm est this afternoon through late Friday night...
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Scattered snow showers early. Waves in ice free areas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered flurries in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers in the evening, then scattered flurries overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Scattered flurries. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain and snow showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LOZ045 Expires:202103041630;;455196 FZUS51 KBUF 041134 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 634 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-041630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Three Mile Bay, NY
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location: 44.04, -76.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 050002 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 702 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. Temperatures will now remain firmly at below normal levels through the upcoming weekend . as several cold frontal passages will continually reinforce a late winter airmass. The cold will be accompanied by some nuisance lake snows . but accumulations will be insignificant. A major warm up is then expected next week with temperatures in the 50s and 60s by mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Weak shortwave rotating around the main upper low will pivot through northern NY this evening bringing overcast skies and the chance for a few snow showers across the North Country through the early overnight. Otherwise, aside from a few stray lake effect showers possible southeast of the Lakes, a fairly uneventful night on tap for most areas. Lows will range from single digits in the North country to teens elsewhere. These will be nearly 10 deg f below normal.

Most of Friday to be dry, but weak lift ahead of reinforcing cold front will combine with deepening moisture from the northeast to allow for some light snow showers toward the end of the day. Temps will struggle to freezing in the far west, but most areas will not make it out of the 20s.

Arctic front to sag through the forecast area Friday night with an increase in the coverage of snow showers.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Aloft, a positively tilted trough over the Northeast Saturday morning will eventually push east by Monday, where upper level riding across the Mid-West will work its way into the area. With the trough overhead, cold air at 850mb will remain in the mid negative teens Celsius for the weekend. This will be cold enough to continue to support lake effect snow showers south and southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario, but primarily south of Lake Ontario. Overall, an inch or two will be possible this weekend.

The aforementioned ridging to the west of the trough will make its way into the central Great Lakes Sunday afternoon, which will shift its associated surface high over the region. This will act to diminish any lingering lake effect by Sunday afternoon. Then with the surface high overhead, a period of dry weather can be expected through the start of the new work week.

The below normal temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday with highs reaching the mid to upper 20s across most locations. Some places along the lower terrain will reach 30, while the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario will remain cool with highs in the low 20s. This cool streak will break by Monday, when the area will be influenced by warm air advection due to the high pressure. Temperatures will warm up to normal with highs in the 30s east of Lake Ontario and low to mid 40s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The warm and dry trend continues Monday night through Wednesday, though a weak warm front will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. With the passage of the front a few rain or snow showers are possible for the area east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail.

Meanwhile aloft, a trough across western Canada will push the ridge axis east. The trough to the west of the area will let a shortwave pass through its base and cause its associated surface low to intensify across the western Great Lakes Wednesday. As the surface low continues on its northeastward track, it will drag its associated frontal features across the region late Wednesday night and Thursday, which will cause chances for rain showers to increase starting Wednesday night.

The weak warm frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday will initiate a warm trend for the remainder of the period. High temperatures will start off in the 40s Tuesday, and could reach near 60 across the warmer locations in the Genesee Valley Wednesday.

With the higher terrain still blanketed by some sort of snowpack and the warm ambient temperatures, the snowpack will continue to ripen and melt. This may may cause some flooding and/or ice jam flooding, though this is mainly the case for the WNY area. The flooding potential will continue to be monitored as the warm up approaches. For now will continue to carry a mention for this in the HWO product.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR flight conditions are expected through the majority of the TAF period. Only exception being some MVFR CIGS possible toward the tail end of the TAF period later Friday afternoon/early evening across the higher terrain east of the Lakes as an arctic cold front approaches the area. Otherwise, winds will remain gusty this evening, reaching 20 to 25 knots at times. Winds will then remain somewhat elevated for the remainder of the overnight, however will lose the wind gust component. Friday will see the return of wind gusts up to 30 knots.

Outlook .

Friday night . MVFR conditions with snow showers likely. Saturday . VFR to MVFR in scattered snow showers. Sunday . Mainly VFR weather with just a chance of snow showers. Monday and Tuesday . VFR.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain in place on Lake Ontario through Saturday with moderate to strong northwest winds continuing tonight through Saturday. The strongest winds will occur Friday, when sustained winds will reach 30 knots on Lake Ontario. Winds will be somewhat lower on Lake Erie today and tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing by Friday afternoon.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ045. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LOZ030.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . JM/RSH SHORT TERM . EAJ/Thomas LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . JM MARINE . Hitchcock/JM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 24 mi55 min 33°F1016.4 hPa (+0.9)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi55 min WNW 18 G 28 27°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.0)11°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 59 mi55 min 20°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.9)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 92 mi55 min WNW 17 G 24 25°F 1020 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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W8
G11
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G17
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G21
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G11
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W12
G18
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G18
W11
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W8
G11
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W5
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NW41
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NW36
G44
NW30
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NW34
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NW28
NW25
G31
NW26
G34
NW24
G30
NW25
G39
NW26
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NW21
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NW12
G17
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W16
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W11
G17
W16
G21
SW5
S5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY9 mi59 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast24°F2°F38%1016.8 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY24 mi59 minNW 810.00 miOvercast22°F-3°F33%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N9N10N6N3N5N9N12
G18
N10
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N14N10N9N11NW11N11NW11NW12N9NW9NW12NW10W12W8W6
1 day agoSW11S7S7S6S6------------S6SW10SW9
G17
SW6W9W8SW8SW9SW8SW6SW6SW4Calm
2 days agoNW15
G28
NW17
G24
NW18
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NW22
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NW16
G24
NW14NW12NW10NW11NW8W11W11W14W11W10W15
G19
W11W14
G19
SW8
G16
W11W9SW10SW9
G15
SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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