Tuesday, April20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Three Mile Bay, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:55PM Tuesday April 20, 2021 5:41 AM EDT (09:41 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1031 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers late this evening, then showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Rain and snow overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Snow and rain. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Thursday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
LOZ045 Expires:202104200930;;822508 FZUS51 KBUF 200231 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1031 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-200930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Three Mile Bay, NY
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location: 44.04, -76.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 200541 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 141 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. Showers ahead of approaching cold front will spread from western New York to the Genesee valley and eastern Lake Ontario region overnight. More importantly, this cold front will signal the beginning of a change to unseasonably cold weather. Low pressure will pass just south of the region later Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, producing widespread accumulating snow across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Light showers continuing to moving over western New York as cold front enters the region. Expect the front and showers to progress to the eastern Lake Ontario region by late tonight. Large scale forcing supporting the front will weaken with time and eastern extent as the mid level trough over Lake Superior moves northeast into Quebec. The showers will diminish in coverage and intensity by late tonight as forcing weakens, with just a few light showers left by daybreak Tuesday.

Latest model guidance remains consistent with going forecast in showing rain ending in Buffalo and Rochester by around daybreak. There will still be a few leftover showers in the morning from the western Southern Tier eastward through the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region, but these showers should end by midday. Also, may see a few wet flakes mix with the rain on Tuesday morning over higher terrain of Southern Tier. Clouds will linger over most of the area Tuesday as the frontal zone stalls nearby across PA. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the cold front, with highs only in the 40s in most areas.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. A late season accumulating snowfall event continues to appear more and more likely later Tuesday night through Wednesday across most of the region. A mid level trough will dig and sharpen into the upper Midwest late Tuesday, then reach the central Great Lakes Wednesday. DPVA and flow adjustments downstream of the digging trough will force a strong baroclinic wave to develop along a stalled frontal zone over the Ohio Valley, with the resulting surface low tracking from the Ohio Valley Tuesday night to southern New England by Wednesday afternoon. A shield of widespread precipitation will be forced by strong frontogenesis and differential temperature advection to the north of the low track, with an added boost of strong DPVA ahead of the digging trough. Model guidance continues to converge on a common solution, but there are still enough differences in low track and frontal position to yield some uncertainty with the forecast. The NAM remains on the northern edge of the guidance envelope, with the GFS/ECMWF farther south.

Tuesday evening will start dry, then light precipitation will develop from southwest to northeast from late evening through the early overnight. Colder air will still be in the process of filtering into the region on low level northerly flow, so this initial light precipitation may be a rain/snow mix. Late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning frontogenesis will intensify as the baroclinic wave reaches our longitude, resulting in a period of moderate or even marginally heavy precipitation. The combination of ongoing cold advection, cooling from melting processes, and wet bulbing of the column will cool the atmosphere sufficiently to change all the precipitation to snow. Forecast soundings continue to suggest there may be a narrow zone of freezing rain/sleet near the rain/snow transition line, but if the farther south model solutions verify this may end up just south of the NY/PA border.

The ground is warm in the second half of April, so that will initially inhibit snow accumulation. Snowfall rate is the key to accumulation at this time of year, if it snows hard enough the snow can overcome the warm surface and cover the ground. Once the ground is covered, the warm ground becomes irrelevant with an insulating layer of snow between the ground and new snow accumulation on top. Given the strong forcing in this case, we expect the warm ground to be overcome for a window from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning when snowfall rates are greatest.

Initial first guess accumulations are 2-5" for lower elevations and 4-6" for higher terrain. These numbers may change with future changes in model guidance. The expected accumulation is below watch/warning criteria, but nonetheless this may have a notable impact to travel, especially around the Wednesday morning commute. The heavy/wet nature of the snow may also result in a few isolated power outages and a few downed tree limbs.

The widespread snow will taper off quickly from west to east Wednesday afternoon, to be replaced by a few snow showers as cold air pours into the eastern Great Lakes in the afternoon. Lake effect and upslope snow showers will become more widespread Wednesday night through Thursday morning as the pool of coldest air aloft crosses the region. Northwest flow will direct most of this into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and from Orleans County eastward across Rochester to Oswego County and down into the Finger Lakes off Lake Ontario. Upslope flow will also keep more widespread snow showers going across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. All of this may produce localized additional accumulations of 1-3" Wednesday night through Thursday morning in the most persistent bands. The snow showers will become more scattered in nature and focused over the land by Thursday afternoon before finally ending later Thursday night as high pressure starts to build towards the eastern Great Lakes.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Upper level ridging late Thursday night through Friday night will promote mainly dry conditions. Looking into the weekend, a shortwave will kick out in front of the next upper level trough Friday night. This trough will support a low to form over the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Attached to said low, a frontal boundary will approach and eventually cross the area late Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Therefore, have increasing chances for rain showers Saturday, though the morning looks to remain dry. The best chances and likelihood of showers will arrive into the area late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The frontal passage should be exiting the region Sunday which will decrease chances for showers from west to east. By Monday, upper level ridging will support an area of surface high pressure and bringing back dry weather to the area.

Otherwise, upper level ridging and surface high pressure Friday will support warm air advection into the region and allow temperatures to rise up into the mid to upper 50s Friday and upper 50s and low 60s Saturday. A brief interlude of cool temperatures on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 50s due to the passage of the frontal boundary the night prior. Temperatures will then rebound into the mid to upper 50s on Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front will move from Western NY to the eastern Lake Ontario region by late tonight. A band of rain tied to the front will continue to spread east across the area through the overnight hours, with areas of MVFR VSBY developing in the steadier rainfall. VFR CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR behind the cold front, with IFR most likely across higher terrain and MVFR favored at lower elevations.

The rain will taper off late tonight and Tuesday morning from northwest to southeast. Lingering MVFR/IFR CIGS in the morning will improve to mainly VFR in the afternoon with a veil of mid/high clouds remaining across the eastern Great Lakes to the north of the departing cold front.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night . VFR deteriorating to widespread IFR late with snow developing. Wednesday . Widespread IFR in snow, improving to MVFR/VFR in the afternoon as snow ends from west to east. Wednesday night and Thursday . MVFR/local IFR with scattered snow showers and some lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes. Windy. Friday and Saturday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes the rest of tonight, with westerly winds increasing behind the front. Though there may be lull just behind the front after an initial surge of strong and gusty winds, winds and waves later tonight appear to increase enough to justify Small Craft Advisories for all but the Niagara River and St. Lawrence River right through Tuesday afternoon. Details on Small Craft Advisories are outlined below.

Low pressure is then forecast to move east across Pennsylvania late Tuesday night to New England by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will become northeast and increase Tuesday night as this low approaches, then become northwest and increase further Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as cold air pours into the eastern Great Lakes behind the departing low. A long period of Small Craft Advisory conditions is expected on Lakes Erie and Ontario from Wednesday through Friday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 24 mi54 min 42°F1007.7 hPa
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 40 mi42 min W 16 G 19 39°F 38°F3 ft1009.5 hPa (+0.9)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi54 min W 14 G 18 41°F 1010.3 hPa38°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 59 mi54 min 48°F 1006.5 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 92 mi42 min WSW 7 G 12 43°F 1011.5 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY9 mi46 minSW 105.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F39°F86%1008.8 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY24 mi46 minWSW 9 G 1710.00 miLight Rain44°F39°F81%1008.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SW4SW7SW11SW8SW12W10W10W10W10
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W10SW9SW8S4S3SE53SW7SW9SW12
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1 day agoSW6SW7SW9SW9SW8S10SW11SW12W10
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W9SW7SW6S4CalmS4CalmS4S5S3S4SW3S5S5
2 days agoN4CalmNE4CalmE734W8W8SW7SW8SW6W4SW4W7SW4S3S3SW5SW6SW5SW6SW4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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