Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Three Mile Bay, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Cold front remains stalled just south of the area across Ohio and Pennsylvania, with dry weather prevailing across the eastern Great Lakes. Otherwise, clouds will continue to increase from southwest to northeast as warm advection and moisture transport in the mid/upper levels increases to the north of the stalled out boundary.

Friday, the frontal boundary stalled to our south will begin to move back northward as a warm front later in the afternoon in response to a southern stream closed low advancing into the mid Mississippi Valley. A broad area of deeper moisture will begin to advect north ahead of this system, supporting an increasing chance of showers across the Southern Tier later in the afternoon. There may be enough instability to support an isolated thunderstorm as well. Areas along and north of the NYS Thruway will stay dry, further removed from increasing moisture and forcing.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A frontal boundary will remain stalled out across the Ohio Valley and northern Mid Atlantic through the short term period, as high pressure remains locked in across much of Ontario and Quebec.
Showers chances this weekend look to be mainly confined to the Southern Tier and focused during the afternoon hours with only an isolated threat for thunderstorms with limited instability.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A wave of low pressure will slowly ripple northeastward across a stalled frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday night. This will lift the boundary back northward with a more notable warming trend and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours. More widespread activity is expected Wednesday through Thursday as more robust troughing moves across the Great Lakes, though track, timing, and strength of this energy remains highly uncertain at this range.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Widespread VFR flight conditions are expected through late Friday, before conditions start to deteriorate across portions of the area starting Friday evening.

Stalled frontal boundary to our south will start to nudge ever so slowly back north as a warm front late Friday into Friday night. A weak wave of low pressure riding east along this boundary will increase chances from to south to north through the evening for at least a few showers, with some embedded isolated thunderstorms possible as well across areas south of the NYS Thruway (highest chances toward the NY/PA line). The uptick in low level moisture will also bring lowering CIGS through the evening, with areas across the Southern Tier (KJHW) likely lowering into the MVFR range by late in the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue across the remainder of the region, although low VFR will be possible for the KBUF/KIAG/KROC terminals late.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers for most of the area. A better chance of showers, MVFR ceilings, and isolated thunderstorms will be found across the Southern Tier.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially southern portions of the area.

MARINE
Northeasterlies will persist on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie through the weekend, with a fairly persistent light to moderate chop.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.