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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 944 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of today..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect snow with some rumbles of Thunder possible, then a chance of snow showers late. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then lake effect snow overnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect rain showers with lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..South winds to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect rain showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain and snow showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 282117 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 417 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Significant lake effect snow will continue through this evening southeast of the lakes. Lake effect snow will then swing back north late tonight and early Wednesday. Even though the snow will be in a weakened state some accumulations are expected northeast of the lakes in the morning which could impact the morning commute. A weak clipper passes through the region later Wednesday which may bring some more light snow showers to the area. High pressure then briefly builds in Thursday with relatively quiet weather. Unsettled but milder weather returns towards the end of the work week with more of a rain system arriving on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO

Regional radars late this afternoon showing northwest flow configuration to the lake snows with multiple narrow bands of snow varying in intensity from light to occasionally heavy.
Heavier snow rates look to be enhanced by upstream connection to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Off Lake Erie, the greatest snowfall amounts through this evening will occur over the Chautauqua Ridge through the Boston Hills where the Lake Huron connection will enhance amounts. Winds continue to remain gusty with continued areas of blowing snow with visibilities dropping to below a half mile at times making travel very difficult at times. The stronger northwest winds also pushing accumulating snow bands into portions of Allegany County.

Off Lake Ontario, multiple narrow bands of snow focused along the entire length of the lake this afternoon and even the higher terrain east of the lake. Snowfall rates have come down considerably from what they were this morning, but still some plumes of heavier snow being enhanced by an upstream connection to Georgian Bay.

Through most of tonight a northwest flow continue with upstream connections being maintained. There will likely be a consolidation to the lake snows with the focus of heavier snows off Lake Erie continuing to be across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills and southeast of Lake Ontario from Wayne to Oswego county, although there certainly could be some accumulating snows from Niagara to Monroe county as well.

Late tonight, it still appears that the steering flow will back to southwest ahead of another compact shortwave trough dropping across the Great Lakes. The backing flow will send the lake effect back to the north. There may even be a period of heavier snow over southern Jefferson county into northern Oswego County as low-level convergence increases before the band shifts more to the north very late tonight. Snow could start to impact the Buffalo Metro and Watertown by 4 am or just a bit later. Lake effect parameters will be weakening by this time, so expect snowfall amounts to be on the lighter side, especially compared to what has occurred with this lake effect event so far. However, even though only a couple of inches of snow is forecast off Lake Erie Wednesday morning, it will be timed with the morning commute around the Buffalo metro making for some slick travel. Set up off Lake Ontario appears to be a bit more favorable with a quick burst of several inches possible Wednesday morning across Jefferson and far northern Lewis counties, including the Watertown area. With the Wednesday morning commute expected to be slippery have opted to issue an advisory for Jefferson and northern Erie counties.

Winds will continue to back to south-southwest by late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon with the bulk of any weak lake effect activity across Niagara county off Lake Erie and near the Saint Lawrence River off Lake Ontario where an additional inch or so will be possible, although expect little impact as temperatures in these areas are expected to climb above freezing. Meanwhile, the higher terrain will see highs only in the mid 20s to around 30.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Wednesday evening a shortwave trough will finish crossing the area.
In its wake the general south-southwesterly flow in place early in the evening will veer to west-southwesterly through much of the night...before starting to turn more southwesterly again late across far western New York as a modest wave of low pressure develops over the Upper Lakes. As a result the lake effect plumes will settle back to areas east-northeast of the lakes...though these will also be steadily weakening over time due to a combination of increasing warm air advection/subsidence aloft
diminishing moisture
and increasing directional shear
Consequently
expect any additional accumulations to be limited to another inch or two east/northeast of Lake Erie and 1-3 inches east/northeast of Lake Ontario...with the Lake Erie activity likely being reduced to just some remnant flurries by late in the night. Given the warm advection regime and a decent surface gradient...low temps will mostly occur during the first part of the evening and range from the mid/upper 20s inland to the lower 30s along the lakeshores...with slowly rising temps then following for the balance of the night.

By Thursday morning any lingering lake response should be limited to some scattered leftover rain and snow showers northeast of Lake Ontario...with these lifting further northward and falling apart by midday with continued drying
subsidence
and increasing shear.
Otherwise we can expect a partly to mostly sunny and dry day...with continued warm air advection helping to send high temps back into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the higher terrain...and to the mid to upper 40s across the lower elevations. Across far western New York it will also turn fairly breezy (with southwesterly winds gusting to 30-35 mph) during the late morning and afternoon as the above mentioned wave of low pressure pushes across central Ontario and into western Quebec...and induces a tightening pressure gradient across our region.

Thursday night the surface low will eject northeastward across Quebec Province...and in the process it will slowly ease its trailing weak cold front across Lakes Erie and Ontario. Still-rather breezy conditions in the evening across western New York will gradually subside overnight as the boundary arrives...though a decent southwesterly gradient will still persist through the night and thus will help to keep low temps from falling below the mid to upper 30s...with some areas along the lakeshores possibly not even dropping below 40. While the front will be weak in nature and thus should largely produce just some scattered light rain showers...
contributions of moisture from the lakes will probably be sufficient to result in a period of more numerous rain showers east of both Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight...where some wet snow will probably also mix in across the higher terrain.

On Friday the surface cold front will slowly cross our area...while also serving as the conduit for a surge of deeper moisture and lift out ahead of a weakening southern stream wave working across the Ohio Valley. This will result in a round of fairly widespread light stratiform precipitation working across most of our area on Friday...with the possible exception of the Saint Lawrence Valley and adjoining portions of Jefferson county. Model temperature profiles currently suggest that the precip will be in the form of just plain rain across the lower elevations...with a rain/wet snow mix and possible minor accumulations found across the higher terrain
As for temps
highs will range from the mid-upper 30s across the higher terrain to the lower 40s across the lower elevations.

Following the frontal passage...the steadier precip will quickly wind down from west to east Friday night as high pressure and drier air briefly builds in from Ontario and Quebec...yielding a mainly dry but still fairly cloudy second half of the night. With a somewhat cooler airmass in place...lows will range from the mid- upper 20s across the North Country to the lower 30s south of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The potential for precip during the long term period is increasing with new model runs. Models are starting to bring a few rounds of showers into the area for the long term period. These rounds of quick passing showers will occur as a few different shortwave troughs track northeast from the Ohio/Mississippi Valley's. This will result in at least chance POPs for most of the long term period and some likely POPs where models are in better agreement.
Precipitation will be both rain and/or snow, depending on time of day and elevation of any particular area.

Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal for most of the long term period, with temperatures dropping to right at normal for the end of the period.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Bands of heavy lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through this evening with IFR/LIFR during the heavier periods of lake effect. Outside of lake effect areas though, mainly VFR will prevail with passing snow showers or flurries at times.

Most of the TAF sites will see little to no impact from the heavy snow, with VFR prevailing most of the time at KBUF and KIAG. KROC will see a few snow showers at times into this evening when brief periods of IFR in light snow is possible. KJHW will be the most significantly impacted, with snow briefly reducing the VSBY to near airfield minimums at times into this evening.

Lake effect snow east of both lakes shifts north late tonight as winds shift to the southwest. The snow could result in IFR-LIFR vsby at BUF/IAG and ART.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR/MVFR, with IFR-LIFR in lake effect snow showers.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with lake effect snow ending early.
Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR with rain showers.
Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Strong westerly winds and only slowly subsiding waves will persist through late this week. Long duration Small Craft Advisories are now in effect for all but the Niagara River and St. Lawrence River through later Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ004- 021.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ005- 006-008-012-019-020-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Wednesday for NYZ007.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LOZ042>045.

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