Three Mile Bay, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Three Mile Bay, NY

June 16, 2024 5:57 PM EDT (21:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM
Moonrise 2:33 PM   Moonset 1:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 144 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024

This afternoon - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday night - South winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Three Mile Bay, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 162110 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 510 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Heat and humidity builds Monday and last through at least Thursday.
Apparent temperatures during this time will likely reach 100F at some locations Tuesday and Wednesday. There will also be a chance of a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm well inland from the lakes each day. Some relief from the oppressive heat begins Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A mild day is wrapping up with fairly low humidity for much of the forecast area. A range of temperatures across the CWA with 80s for most locales...a little cooler east of Lake Ontario where some clouds are present (temps in the low 70s).

Tonight...a warm frontal segment will pass by to our north, and this will begin to bring in a more humid air mass. This frontal passage will also bring a small chance of showers, mainly across the Eastern Lake Ontario region late tonight.

...Heat and humidity builds MONDAY and remains for much of the work week...

Details...

In the wake of the warm frontal passage temperatures on Monday will be notably warmer, and it will also be more humid. Apparent temperatures will rise into the upper 90s in the lower Genesee Valley and Western Finger lakes region, where a Heat Advisory was issued starting Monday. Elsewhere, will be hot with high temperatures in the upper 80s and apparent temperatures in the lower 90s.

For the most part, the day should be rain-free but some high res models do develop some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Given forecast soundings, it appears this is likely overdone and only supports a slight chance PoPs.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Dangerous Heat Wave Will Begin For The Region

Surface high pressure will be anchored over the Atlantic and a deep southerly flow will bring HOT and HUMID conditions during the day and WARM and HUMID conditions during the night Monday night through Wednesday night.

An anomalously strong upper level ridge will build across the eastern Great Lakes region and Northeast through mid-week. Warm air advection will take place Monday night through Tuesday with 850mb temperatures climbing to +20C. Very warm Monday night with lows in the upper 60s across the higher terrain and low 70s across the lake plains. Temperatures will soar into the low 90s across the region with valley locations reaching the mid to upper 90s Tuesday.
Dewpoints will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s with PWAT values 1.5 inches or greater. The combination of the heat and humidity will drive heat index values into the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday afternoon. The forecast area will be on the northwest side of the strong upper level ridge and should be enough in the ridge to keep any upstream thunderstorm complexes outside the forecast area Tuesday. There will be high surface based instability across the region (sans the immediately shorelines.) Terrain circulations and lake breeze boundaries will likely produce a cu field with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any convection will wane into the evening hours. The very warm airmass will persist through Tuesday night with overnight lows only reaching the low 70s.

There is little change in the sensible weather for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another HOT and HUMID day with highs in the low to mid 90s, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. There is some model guidance that shows 850mb temperatures a few degrees higher (EC) which could add a degree or two to high temps Wednesday. The forecast area will remain on the northwest side of the upper level ridge Wednesday through Wednesday night. The convective potential is similar to Tuesday with low coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Another very warm night with lows in the low to mid 70s.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area Tuesday through Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
...Dangerous Heat Wave Will Continue For The Region Through At Least Thursday...

Model consensus shows the axis of the anomalously strong nearly 600 decameter ridge will be just to our south and southeast Thursday, just a slight jog from its position on Wednesday. This may bring 500 mb heights down just a smidge, along with surface temperatures/dew points possibly a couple of degrees cooler. All in all, very similar to the hot and steamy conditions expected for Tuesday/Wednesday, which will make Thursday the most oppressive day of the long term period with heat index values again ranging from the mid 90s to very low 100s for the bulk of western and northcentral NY.

Positioning/proximity of the upper level ridge will suppress most, if not all convection, especially across western NY. Better chance for an isolated shower/storm would be toward the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley closer to the northern periphery of the ridge.

A very gradual day-to-day 'cooling' is then expected for the Fri-Sun timeframe as successive shortwaves traversing eastward through central and eastern Canada slowly suppress the ridge to the south, leaving a quasi-zonal flow in place across the CONUS by the end of the period. That said, still want to emphasize that conditions are still going to remain very warm to hot with elevated humidity levels. In terms of temperatures, upper 80s/low 90s Friday will slowly trend downward to the mid and upper 80s by the end of the weekend, with the highest elevations several degrees cooler respectively on any given day. Heat index values will reach the low to mid 90s for all of the lower terrain Friday afternoon, upper 80s to low 90s Saturday afternoon, and mid 80s to near 90 by Sunday.

In terms of precipitation, there will be some increase in convection potential as we close out the work week and head into next weekend.
This will be owed to mainly two things: Upper level disturbances riding the northern periphery of the upper ridge passing closer and closer to the area as the center of the ridge slowly sags further south through the period, while a surface boundary also sags south toward the region from Canada. Areas that do receive some showers/storms, will enjoy some relief, however any reprieve will only be temporary.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR flight conditions expected through the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday through Friday...VFR, but a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

MARINE
Lake breeze enhanced easterly winds, especially on the central and western portions of Lake Ontario this evening where some choppy conditions will be found.

Winds will then be generally light Monday through much of next week as high pressure anchors over the Ohio Valley and New England.

CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region, starting Monday June 17th. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:

Buffalo

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
94/1994............73/2006
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012


Rochester

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
94/1994............70/1994
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923


Watertown

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
89/1994............68/1949
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001-002-006>008-010>012-019>021-085.
Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ003>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 24 mi58 min 66°F30.15
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 40 mi58 minNE 9.7G12 64°F 64°F1 ft30.13
45215 42 mi32 min 66°F 65°F1 ft
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi58 minNNE 11G14 68°F 30.0955°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KART WATERTOWN INTL,NY 10 sm61 minWNW 0510 smClear72°F52°F50%30.14
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Wind History graph: ART
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Montague, NY,




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