DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the Four Corners, Central Plains, and Upper Midwest. Upper low is near the ALTA/SASK border with trof extending through the Northern Rockies, with an ejecting short wave near the Central Rockies. At the surface, cold front is through about 2/3rds of our zones. There is some monsoonal moisture streaming overhead, but the lower layers remain very dry.
Hot temperatures remain, especially across south-central SD ahead of the cold front.

The cold front will stall out this afternoon south/east of the Black Hills, and will be the focal point for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening as short wave ejects out of the Central Rockies and through the region. Broad bulk shear is rather weak, but higher right along the cold front, and most CAMs are showing a few stronger storms along the front. Severe wind gusts look to be the main threat given high storm bases. Most guidance is rather wet later this afternoon/evening, primarily across the western 1/3rd of SD, but not sure how quickly the lower levels may be able to moisten.

Upper low will move slowly across the central Canadian provinces this weekend, with disturbed southwest flow across the Northern Plains. Another ejecting short wave and cold front will move through during peak heating on Saturday, with more storms possible. Shear is a little better Saturday so some hail may be possible, but severe wind gusts would again be the main threat. Hot temperatures expected again Saturday, but should cool for Sunday behind the cold front.

The unsettled pattern looks to continue into the early part of next next week, but upper ridge looks to get reestablished to our west as the week progresses, leading to more hot weather with less chances for precipitation.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 516 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR conditions should continue for much of the period.
Scattered thunderstorms have developed across a line from KIEN to KPHP, these storms will continue to develop and increase in coverage across western SD into northeastern WY as the evening progresses. Strong and erratic wind gusts may be encountered near any storms.

Increasing haze/smoke from wildfires may also cause some reductions in vsbys at times late in the period, especially from northwestern SD to northeastern WY.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued At 138 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions continue today, although RH is a little higher behind the cold front pushing through the region. A better chance of storms arrive later this afternoon and evening, especially across the western 1/3rd of SD. The lower levels of the atmosphere are still quite dry, but not as dry as yesterday, so widespread dry lightning is not expected.

Hot weather returns on Saturday, with RH dropping into the teens for northeast WY and far western SD, but winds do not look particularly strong. Another round of thunderstorms is possible in the afternoon/evening.

Unsettled weather continues into early next week with mainly above average temperatures. Very hot and dry conditions are likely to return as next week progresses with an upper ridge rebuilding to our west.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ032- 043-046-047-049-077.
WY...None.