Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Austin, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 5:00PM Thursday December 12, 2019 1:57 AM EST (06:57 UTC) Moonrise 5:30PMMoonset 8:14AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 1000 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light rain and snow. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201912121015;;217426 FZUS53 KDTX 120300 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1000 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-121015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Austin, MI
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location: 44.06, -82.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 120455 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1155 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

AVIATION.

High pressure lifting across the region overnight will maintain a dry and stable environment. This ensures VFR conditions with clear skies across the lowest 6-8 kft throughout the night. Winds gradually diminishing as the high builds in, backing with time toward the southwest then south overnight. An elevated warm front will then lift across southeast Michigan Thursday. Mid level cloud with thicken ahead of this boundary late tonight and Thursday morning. The passage of this boundary may offer a brief window for some lower VFR cloud during the midday period, but retention of a dry low level environment limits this potential. South to southeast winds strengthening late in the day, sustained near 15 knots at times.

For DTW . Clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft holds tonight. Brief window for a limited coverage of lower cloud carrying 3-5k ft cigs will exist late morning/early afternoon, simply highlighted with a sct mention attm.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceiling briefly below 5000 feet late morning/early afternoon Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 349 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

DISCUSSION .

Intersection of sub inversion cloud layer in the -12 to -15C/microphysics sweet spot and diabatic forced potential instability layer of 1000-900mb resulted in a respectable lake effect event across Southeast Michigan during the mid to late morning hours. Subtle synoptic scale forcing existed from differential increase in absolute vorticity and very brief upper level divergence. The synoptic scale forcing was not enough to increase coverage/duration of snow activity, but did provide for some favorable lower column convergence. Merging of individual convective line elements led to some isolated convective bands exhibiting +30 dbz and convective depths that pushed upwards of 6.0 kft agl.

Eastward progression of composite H3 - H5 trof is leading to efficient lower column subsidence down a fairly upright slope from 266 -271K equivalent potential temperature surfaces this afternoon. Forecast soundings bear this subsidence out with shallow equilibrium heights crashing from 4.5 kft agl down to approximately 3.0 kft agl. Latest regional mosaic and satellite imagery shows a disruption to the convective setup with fading of lake effect streams upstream of Southeast Michigan. Expect no support for snowflakes this evening due to increase in lower column stability.

Surface high pressure will pass through the Great Lakes region tonight with the 800-600mb anticyclone center drifting eastward through the Ohio River Valley 12-18Z Thursday. Very efficient setup for southwesterly return flow to be directed right into Southeast Michigan during the period from Thursday afternoon through Friday night. Effiency of the warm advection will be so good, any residence time for the elevated warm front from south to north is expected to be very brief. For the bulk of Southeast Michigan, system relative trajectories show a setup that will be mainly anticyclonic. Therefore, high confidence in dry conditions. The one area that has been hinting at some possible QPF potential is at the Tri Cities Thursday evening with a ribbon of enhanced Lake Michigan moisture shown to line out from SW to NE clipping Bay and Midland Counties. The problem is forecast soundings are very consistent in showing no midlevel moisture above 7.0 kft agl and deeper saturation remaining within the -2 to -6C range. From this vantage point there does appear to be some freezing drizzle potential Friday 00-08Z for the extreme northern CWA.

Very aggressive jet energy packent and anomolous south positioning of jet exit region supports greatest height falls and cyclogenesis to the east of Southeast Michigan Friday through Sunday. Will need to monitor the potential for some possible overrunning precipitation back to the west (daytime Saturday) especially given the degree of jet coupling and anticyclonic curvature to jet axis aloft. Any snow accumulation potential appears to be mitigated on Saturday by surface temperatures that will be in the lower to middle 30s. The offered guidance carries chance PoPs which is a compromise of synoptic deformation brushing the extreme east and what should be a door opening to some scattered lake effect snow showers.

Deep column anticyclone is then forecasted to build into the region for the beginning of next week. Models have shown high consistency in bringing a system in vicinity of Southeast Michigan Tuesday. Strong upper level jet dynamics is expected to result in a well organized mid latitude cyclone. Latest deterministic ECMWF run shows a southern shift of the storm track with strong ridging in place over much of the Great Lakes.

MARINE .

The coldest air aloft will push to the east of the region this evening as the gradient gradually eases, leading to weakening winds over the lakes tonight. A Gale Warning and Small Craft Advisory remain in effect over portions of Lake Huron into this evening. Brief improvement in marine conditions overnight as a ridge of high pressure tracks just to our south, but southerly winds then increase through the day Thursday as low pressure moves into the western Great Lakes. Southerly gales will be likely across southern and central Lake Huron late Thursday afternoon into the evening, and a new Gale Warning has been issued during this time frame. The low pressure will bring a good likelihood for snow turning to rain across northern Lake Huron on Thursday into early Friday. Winds weaken by early Friday, remaining out of the south through the day. A low pressure system lifting up the eastern seaboard will then flip the winds northerly by Saturday and drag an arctic air mass in by Sunday, leading to unsettled marine conditions once again for the late weekend.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning from 4 PM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night for LHZ362-363-462-463.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 7 mi67 min WSW 4.1 14°F 1035.2 hPa7°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi58 min W 6 G 8.9 14°F 33°F1033.9 hPa (+1.2)8°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 32 mi78 min SW 7 G 8.9 13°F 1033.5 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 33 mi78 min WSW 11 G 16 15°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 46 mi58 min SW 9.9 G 13 18°F 1033.2 hPa (+0.4)
PSCM4 48 mi58 min W 2.9 G 6 15°F 1052.5 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW7
G11
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G15
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G18
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W12
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G18
NW11
G16
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G19
W17
G25
W15
G26
W7
G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI7 mi67 minWSW 4 mi14°F7°F73%1035.2 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi62 minWNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy14°F9°F80%1033.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6
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SW6SW7--W10
G23
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W9W6W4Calm
1 day agoNW13
G25
W12
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G24
--NW14
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NW12
G19
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G20
NW10NW8W6W855W7W10
G16
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SW7SW10
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W10W10
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2 days agoSE4SE3SE3S6S6S6S6S6S8S7S6S5S8S8SW8
G15
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SW10SW9
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G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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