Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Austin, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday August 22, 2019 2:45 PM EDT (18:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:00PMMoonset 12:31PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 1000 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. A chance of waterspouts in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201908222115;;035266 FZUS53 KDTX 221400 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1000 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-222115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Austin, MI
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location: 44.06, -82.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221643
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1243 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Aviation
A cooler and drier environment taking residence over the region will
provide a stretch of quiet conditions for aviation interests this
taf period. Period of late day diurnal cumulus may briefly become
broken in coverage, before quickly fading withe loss of heating this
evening. Another round of high basedVFR diurnal CU likely on
Friday. Modest northerly winds late today, turning northeasterly
tonight.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 344 am edt Thu aug 22 2019
discussion...

last evening's cold front has cleared SE michigan and will remain
semi-stationary south of the ohio border today. The air mass behind
the front is much cooler and drier than what has been in place
recently. With surface dew point depressions of 5 to 13 degrees and
mid to high clouds moving overhead, the fog low stratus potential is
minimal this morning. 850 mb temps are progged to fall to the 8 to
10 c range by this afternoon, resulting in a cooler day in the 70s. A
few ripples of upper energy will travel along the ohio valley
frontal zone this morning, but should only result in an isolated
coverage of showers for monroe and lenawee counties. Will keep slight
chance pop in place to account for this. Skies clear later this
morning with gentle isentropic descent introducing a continued flow
of dry air into the midlevels. Some diurnal cumulus may develop
during peak heating but will be of little impact.

Clear skies and dry low-levels will allow for good cooling potential
tonight; lows in the 50s with a shot at some readings in the upper
40s in the thumb. High pressure expands over the northern great
lakes from the late week into the weekend and keeps conditions cool
and quiet. Temperatures will be more reminiscent of mid september
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s both Friday and Saturday.

A shortwave trough will rotate around the canadian upper low late
Friday morning and may tap into enough over-lake instability to
produce some showers over the thumb.

A warming trend then begins on Sunday as the thermal trough axis
moves off to the east and southerly flow starts to advect warmer air
back north. Shortwave ridging will remain overhead on Sunday as we're
positioned between two troughs which will lead to continued quiet
weather. Temperatures will rebound back to near-normal for late
august during the early week. The next chance for showers and storms
comes late Monday into Tuesday as an upper trough digs through the
upper midwest and pushes a cold front through. A negatively-tilting
trough and 80kt jet streak moving overhead hint at the potential for
some strong storms, but still plenty of time to resolve many moving
parts in the forecast. Cool air will move back in for the late part
of next week.

Marine...

canadian high pressure will expand into the northern great lakes
over the next couple days before departing to eastern canada over
the weekend. This system will influence the region right through the
end of the weekend. There is an ongoing push of seasonally cool air
across the lakes as this high builds in. This is currently
supporting gusty northerly winds across southern lake huron. The
winds and waves will gradually decrease during the course of the day
and into tonight as the gradient slowly relaxes. Light to modest
northerly winds will however persist across the the lakes through
the day Friday. Persistent cold air advection across the lakes today
into Friday will promote enough over lake instability to support a
chance for waterspouts.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until noon edt today for lhz441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Tf
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 7 mi55 min 5.1 69°F 1016.4 hPa53°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi52 min N 14 G 17 64°F 72°F1017.1 hPa52°F
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 30 mi26 min NNW 14 G 18 63°F 68°F1016.8 hPa54°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 32 mi66 min ESE 4.1 G 8 70°F 1017.6 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 33 mi66 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 1017.6 hPa
45163 37 mi26 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 74°F1 ft
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 46 mi46 min N 4.1 G 8.9 66°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.3)
PSCM4 48 mi46 min N 12 G 15 66°F 1034.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI7 mi55 minVar 5 mi69°F53°F57%1016.4 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi50 minN 11 G 1710.00 miFair69°F48°F48%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10
G15
W6NW4SW9N14--------------------------------6NW75
1 day agoE86SE8--CalmNW3Calm------------------W4W3--Calm6NW8SW9W8
G16
2 days agoE8--SE11SE9SE9SE6S3S4S5------S5----SW4W3SW5SW444N4NE5E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.