Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Austin, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:00PM Friday December 4, 2020 7:27 PM EST (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:43PMMoonset 11:33AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 350 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. A chance of snow and a slight chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of snow and rain after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy with rain and snow likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:202012050415;;841265 FZUS53 KDTX 042050 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-050415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Austin, MI
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location: 44.06, -82.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 042318 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 618 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

AVIATION.

A weak elongated area of low pressure is in place near Chicago to Grand Rapids with a backdoor cold front sliding southward through Lower Michigan. A very narrow axis of low-midlevel thetae is pooled in advance of this cold front. The ribbon of moisture is collocated with MVFR stratus that is now across Northern Metro Detroit invof the I 96 corridor. Expecting cigs to lower yet into MVFR for a time at DTW the first couple of hours of the TAF. Increased dry air advection will then occur post front which will cause skies to convert over to a more stratocumulus. This has support in satellite imagery with stratocumulus based at 4.5-5.0 kft agl advancing southward through Saginaw Bay and Tri Cities. Deep dry air advection is then forecasted to increase tonight after 9Z. Uncertainty exists late tonight as inversion heights drop a significant amount by 12Z. Models show saturation holding beneath the inversion but it will be quite possible that breaks in the stratocumulus develop by morning. The prospects bkn-ovc increases during the daytime Saturday as daytime heating occurs and some signal exists for lake aggregate moisture backdooring into the Detroit terminals.

For DTW . VFR through the forecast with cigs of below 5kft.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High for cigs aob 5000 ft tonight and Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

DISCUSSION .

Temperatures have once again have climbed into the low to mid 40s today across most locations. However, colder and drier air is slowly filtering into the CWA behind the cold front, with some weak convective radar returns noted earlier in the day with the steep low level lapse rates and modest diurnal cape generated. However, formidable 700 mb mid level dry slot is taking hold and activity has pretty much dissipated.

Large scale northern stream trough axis swinging through the Central Great Lakes region this evening, and already in the process of phasing with the Tennessee Valley storm system, which will rapidly deepen at it moves to the southern New England coast tomorrow. Still looking at some lake effect potential across the eastern Thumb region tonight into tomorrow, as 850 mb temps fall into the negative upper single numbers to possibly as cold as -10 C. And there lies the issue, as inversion heights do not look to be much higher than 5- 6k feet, and cloud tops likely stay below the DGZ. Shallow nature of activity leading to plenty of mixed signals in the hires solutions, and could be looking a weaker multiple bands vs one dominant band. If dominate band does develop over far southern Lake Huron, would likely just provide glancing blow to Port Huron. Ultimately, do think winds will veer around enough to the north-northeast over Lake Huron tonight for the eastern Thumb to be impacted with lake effect activity, but will favor weaker multiple bands (somewhat similar to NMM or ARW2), and keep localized accumulations topping out mainly around 1 inch (low chance of an isolated 2 inch total). With water temps still in the mid 40s over southern Lake Huron (PER GLERL), still some concern snow will be melting or rain occurring right along the immediate shoreline as well with a prolonged onshore surface wind, which could be saving grace if in fact, one dominate band does attempt to develop and roll through the Port Huron area tomorrow morning. Outside of the Thumb region, looking at mostly cloudy skies tomorrow with temps near normal (35-40).

The forecast for the second half of the weekend into early next week will hinge on the interaction of a series of strong pacific upper waves tracking through Canada and then nose diving south into the western Great Lakes, as they run into the blocking upper level low over/near New Brunswick. Thus, re-enforcing shot of cold air, with 850 mb temps back down around -10 C Sunday night will keep the early week period seasonably cool before 500 mb heights significantly rebound for the mid week period, supporting a warmup well into the 40s. Although, there appears to be a strong shortwave tracking through Ontario on Wednesday, and this feature could delay the warm up if it dips farther south, as there is a strong degree of variance over the Great Lakes region per ensemble members. Outside of the lake effect activity over the next 24 hours or so, the outgoing forecast will have no mention of precipitation, but don't have a lot of faith that will hold in the Thursday-Friday time-frame (see 12z Euro/Canadian).

MARINE . A secondary cold front will drop south across Lake Huron this afternoon and evening shifting winds to more northerly along with spotty rain or snow showers. Waves in the Huron nearshores will increase to the 3 to 6 foot range requiring small craft advisories through Saturday afternoon. Winds will remain northerly Saturday then slowly back to the northwest Sunday as weakening high pressure moves into the area. A disturbance aloft will produce the likelihood of rain and snow showers Saturday over the southern half of Lake Huron. After Saturday, little if any weather expected through Wednesday with a diffused surface pressure pattern producing a relatively light northerly flow that will gradually back to westerly by mid week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . DRC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 7 mi31 min NNW 6 40°F 1012.5 hPa30°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi58 min WNW 5.1 G 7 36°F 38°F1011.2 hPa30°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 32 mi48 min NNW 5.1 G 9.9 37°F 1012.5 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 33 mi48 min WNW 13 G 15 38°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 46 mi28 min NNW 11 G 14 38°F 1012.2 hPa (+1.7)
PSCM4 48 mi88 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 37°F 1029.8 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI7 mi31 minNNW 6 mi40°F30°F68%1012.5 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi33 minNW 310.00 miOvercast34°F30°F87%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9
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SW7SW66SW7SW6SW5SW5SW6SW6SW6W6W8W5NW8W8W6NW7N6
1 day agoW7W8W9
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W6W6SW5SW4SW66SW6SW4SW7
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5W9
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2 days agoNW21
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W6W9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.