Tuesday, June15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Austin, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 9:20PM Tuesday June 15, 2021 12:40 AM EDT (04:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:30AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 1115 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt Tuesday through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:202106150915;;285232 FZUS53 KDTX 150315 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1115 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-150915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Austin, MI
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location: 44.06, -82.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 150403 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1203 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

AVIATION.

Showers dissipated leading up to midnight with the loss of daytime heating and then cooler and less humid air further aids decreasing clouds going forward. A period of clear sky settles in over the terminal corridor until a reinforcing cold front arrives from the northern Great Lakes and moves through SE MI during the morning. The front brings patches of stratocu that formulate a few hours of low end VFR ceiling before coverage decreases during afternoon. Increasingly dry and cooler air builds in on a north wind gusting around 20 kts at times into Tuesday evening.

For DTW . A few hours of clearing during the late night are followed by patches of VFR stratocu with an otherwise dry cold front during the morning. Any ceiling below 5000 ft is expected to be brief before clouds decrease into the afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft during the morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

DISCUSSION .

Cyclonic flow in place across the Great Lakes today as a weakening jetlet, evident on water vapor satellite imagery, now resides across the northern Ohio River Valley. Amplification of a longwave trough will continue tonight through the midweek period a series of shortwaves ripples through the greater flow regime. For today, strengthening mid-level cold pool of the building thermal trough and streams of cirrus clouds aloft will aid in continued cooling of the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, increasing mid-level lapse rates to around 6 C/km. Concurrently, diurnal heating has increased instability with MLCAPE values building up to 500 J/kg. This will set the stage for the continued chances to see isolated to scattered rain showers with some thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. Effective bulk shear values around 20 knots will decrease through the evening hours which will limit organization potential of storms, however, steep low- level lapse rates and lowering freezing levels will bring the potential to see small pea sized hail with stronger storms. Otherwise, precipitation potential will fall off after sunset. Clearing trends behind earlier activity and northerly flow will allow overnight lows to drop into the 50s.

Limited precipitation chances are expected to hold over southwest Michigan, where the better CAPE gradient resides, as high pressure and associated dry air filters across Southeast Michigan. Northerly flow will advect very dry air across the Great Lakes 00Z Wednesday into 06Z Thursday, noted by EPS PW values dropping below .50 inches. This will result in dry weather with extended periods of sunshine through the midweek period. Daytime high temperatures are expected to hold in the 70s with dewpoints in the 40s for both Tuesday and Wednesday, making for very pleasant outdoor conditions.

High pressure will travel south into the Appalachians during the Thursday- Friday time frame, with return flow bringing some warmer temperatures and more moisture to end the week. Ensemble members are starting to converge on a shortwave feature set to travel near the Great Lakes at some point on Friday which will enhance moisture transport and will bring the next chance for showers or thunderstorms to the area.

MARINE .

A trough is currently working south through the region producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. As the trough gets south of the region tonight, Winds will become northerly and increase slightly as the gradient tightens between the exiting trough and incoming area of high pressure. Although winds look to peak around 20 to 25 knots Tuesday, the long fetch down the axis of Lake Huron will build wave heights across the southern basin. Small Craft Advisory may be needed for elevated wave heights along the Huron shoreline. Northerly winds will linger into Wednesday although speeds will decrease as the high take a stronger hold over the area.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421- 441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 7 mi45 min WNW 8.9 G 18 70°F 1012.3 hPa56°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi52 min NNW 7 G 11 67°F 65°F1012.1 hPa54°F
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 30 mi30 min NNW 16 G 18 58°F 55°F1013 hPa56°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 32 mi60 min NNW 6 G 9.9 64°F 1014.2 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 33 mi60 min WNW 13 G 15 65°F 1014.2 hPa
45163 37 mi40 min NW 12 G 14 66°F 1 ft1015.2 hPa (+0.7)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 46 mi40 min SSE 6 G 8.9 67°F 1013.9 hPa (+1.0)
PSCM4 48 mi40 min W 5.1 G 8 63°F 1031.2 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI7 mi45 minWNW 9 G 18 mi70°F56°F61%1012.3 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi3.8 hrsN 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F53°F66%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4NW8N4NW11
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W4SW5W7W10
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NW12NW7NW5NW6NW53CalmNW5NW7NW4NW4W4W6W5NW9
G18
1 day agoNW3W3W3CalmCalmW3NW6NW8NW7NW9NW6NW7NW43NW43E3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3Calm
2 days agoNW5N3N4NE5CalmCalmCalmNW3N4E7E8E6E4E4E6E5E3E3E6SE7SE5S4SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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