Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bartlett, NH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Satellite imagery early this Friday morning shows lingering mid-level clouds across the mtns and towards the Canadian Border with some passing upper-level clouds further to the south. A sfc cold front is currently sinking south over southern Quebec and webcams show some light snow falling towards the Canadian Border. Where clouds have been more persistent temperatures are primarily into the single digits and lower teens but where skies have remained more clear, readings are several degrees below zero. Expecting this trend to persist through daybreak as clouds come and go.

The aforementioned sfc cold front will cross from north to south today before moving over the Gulf of Maine by this afternoon.
Behind this front, winds will shift to the northwest and increase some with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible. Downsloping winds will allow locations south of the mountains to warm into the upper 20s and lower 30s while further to the north readings will mostly be into the teens to near 20 degrees. Initially skies will be mostly sunny south of the mtns but increasing Froude Numbers will likely result in at least some increased cloudiness by the afternoon. Clouds will be more persistent over the mtns and far north with scattered snow showers at times.
Given the high Froude Numbers, cannot rule out one or two spilling into the foothills/interior.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Surface high pressure will begin to build to our south and west tonight, allowing for clearing skies and diminishing winds.
This combined with the still fresh snow cover will likely result in good radiation cooling conditions. Given recent performance, went ahead and used mostly MOS guidance for overnight lows areawide and then nudged the normally colder spots down a few more degrees. This brings interior valley locations down to around 10 below with single digits either side of zero elsewhere.

High pressure will remain in control on Saturday, resulting in continued dry conditions with partly to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will be a little cooler though with readings into the teens across the north and 20s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Late evening update...
A large ride of high pressure will be exiting off the Eastern Seaboard Saturday night. A southwest flow aloft will allow for warm air advection overnight, however temperatures may still fall into the single numbers north to the teens south below an inversion.

By Sunday, above normal temperatures will return to the region.
Ahead of a weak trough, readings will reach the 25 to 35 degree range from north to south. Once again, this in a series of troughs will be relatively moisture starved with little if any precipitation.

As we head into next week, on Monday, a developing west to southwesterly gradient will enter the region. This will allow for above average temperatures and once again relatively dry conditions.
Latest operational models and ensemble solutions suggest another Arctic front will cross the region around the Tuesday time frame. However, the timing of this front once again varies from model to model and the arrival of the frigid Arctic air remains uncertain as to the exact timing. However much below normal and perhaps dangerously cold temperatures can be expected again in the Tuesday, Wednesday time frame. Scattered snow showers or possibly snow squalls may accompany this system. Have raised NBM pops during this period. In the meantime, the Canadian run is the outlier with a clipper type system exiting the Great Lakes midweek at this time.

Prev Disc...
Overview...

The trough that has been in control of the weather pattern this week retreats to the north and east this weekend. High pressure builds south of New England, bringing a moderating trend into this weekend and the start of next week. A cold front likely moves through on Tuesday, with the next shot of Arctic air arriving by midweek next week.

Details...

After highs in the teens and 20s on Saturday, temps likely reach about 10 degrees warmer on Sunday. This marks the first time most spots south of the mountains will reach above freezing since this past Sunday. These milder temps hold for Monday and Tuesday, with highs likely reaching the low to mid 30s along the coast and through southern New Hampshire.

However, this moderation period will come to an end late Tuesday as a strong cold front moves through late in the day. The front is likely to bring some scattered snow showers and the potential for snow squalls, with the best chance for these across northern areas.
The timing of the frontal passage will factor into the strength of these, with an afternoon passage fostering the best potential for heavier snow squalls. With a relatively narrow window for stronger snow squalls, POPs remain relatively low at this point for Tuesday's forecast, but are likely to rise as more certainty and better high res guidance comes into view over the next few days.

Behind this front, Arctic air returns to New England. Daytime highs ranging from the single digits to mid 20s look likely by midweek, with overnight lows in the single digits to below zero. There is some signal in the models that a weak wave of low pressure may ride along the arctic boundary late next week. While still a low chance, this looks like the next chance for a more organized system to move through the area. It's still a week away, and the models remain inconsistent on this feature, but it bears watching for the potential of both snow, as well as serving to disrupt the heart of the cold airmass moving into the area.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...VFR conditions will persist through at least Saturday. The exception will be at KHIE where a period of MVFR ceilings is possible this morning. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-15 kts, gusts up to 25 kts between roughly 14Z-00Z before becoming light and variable tonight. Winds will then become southwesterly on Saturday at 10-15 kts. No LLWS is expected through the period.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions prevail through midday Tuesday. Scattered afternoon snow showers are then possible on Tuesday. Gusty northwest winds are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. VFR likely prevails on Wednesday, with snow possible by late next week.

MARINE
Short Term...Northwesterly winds will increase some today behind a cold front with a few gusts near 25 kts possible at times and seas of 2-5 ft, highest outside of the bays. Winds weaken some tonight into Saturday while gradually backing to the southwest.
Light freezing spray is possible through this morning.

Long Term...SCA conditions are possible in southwesterly flow on Sunday and Monday. Southwesterly gales are possible ahead of a strong cold front on Tuesday, with northwesterly gales then possible behind the front Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Northwesterly winds likely to continue to bring SCA conditions into late week. Freezing spray will be possible behind the front from Tuesday night through the end of the week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.