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LMZ543 Expires:202312030300;;780934 Fzus53 Kgrb 021811 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 1211 pm cst Sat dec 2 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz542-543-030300- sturgeon bay to two rivers wi-two rivers to sheboygan wi- 1211 pm cst Sat dec 2 2023
This afternoon..E wind 5 to 10 kts. A slight chance of light rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..E wind 5 to 10 kts. A chance of rain showers. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..NE wind 10 to 15 kts backing N 10 to 20 kts in the afternoon. Light rain and snow showers in the morning, then a chance of light rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..NW wind 10 to 15 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 021713 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1113 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM
Today
Tonight
and Sunday Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

High pressure will slowly pull away from the region today, as mostly cloudy skies remain across the area. The high will keep the weather quiet as temperatures rise to a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs today are expected to range from the lower to middle 30s across the north to around 40 across east- central Wisconsin.

A low pressure system approaching from the southwest will combine with a mid level trough and bring a swath of snow and some rain to the area late tonight into Sunday. Although surface temperatures would indicate the event would be a mix of rain and snow, model soundings show a cold column with above freezing temperatures very close to the surface and mainly later Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Therefore, the primary precipitation type is expected to be snow for most of the event, with rain mixing in later in the event once the main precipitation is moving off to the east. The main exception to this will be along the lakeshore where an easterly wind late tonight into Sunday morning could deepen the layer above freezing, which will mean more rain for these locations that locations further inland. Snowfall amounts late tonight into Sunday are generally expected to be 1 to 2 inches with the highest amounts north and west of the Fox Valley. Lower amounts of a few tenths are expected along the lakeshore with only a few tenths across far north-central Wisconsin as the main swath of moisture is not expected to make it that far north.

Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower to middle 20s across the north, to around 30 across east-central Wisconsin.
Highs on Sunday are expected to rise into the 30s.

LONG TERM
Sunday Night Through Friday Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Sunday night through Monday...Some lingering flurries, mainly in east-central WI, will be possible Sunday night as a low pressure system works its way off to the east. A brief dry period will follow for much of Monday, as an area of high pressure centered over the southern Plains extends into the area.

Monday night through Tuesday...An organized clipper system is progged to move southeast over Wisconsin beginning late Monday night and exiting the area Tuesday afternoon. A favorable area of mid-level convergence over the area associated with this system could produce some light snow throughout this period. As temperatures warm Tuesday afternoon a few areas of rain may also mix in, mainly in the Fox Valley and east-central WI. Currently, there is a consensus amounts the global ensemble models that QPF with this system will be under 0.10".

Wednesday through Thursday afternoon...After a brief period of dry conditions Wednesday morning the chance for mixed precipitation returns Wednesday and lasts through Thursday morning as a system works its way across southern Ontario. There is a wide range of model solutions with this system so forecast confidence is low. Frontogenetic forcing on the southern side of this system looks like the primary driver of precipitation across WI. Temperatures Thursday afternoon are forecast to be in the upper 30s to low 40s, so if precipitation lingers a change over from a wintry mix to rain is possible, especially in central and east-central WI.

Thursday night through the end of the extended period...There is a wide range of model solutions for the end of next week, but there does seem to be a general consensus amongst the GFS and ECMWF that another low pressure system will impact the area. It is too early to dive into the details with this system, however, given warming temperature trends this may be a primarily rain producing system for central and northeast WI.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1104 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Pockets of MVFR CIGS will continue this afternoon with MVFR CIGS becoming more widespread earlier this evening, then falling into the IFR or lower category later this evening and overnight then continuing through much of Sunday. Snow will arrive across central Wisconsin, and then overspread much of the rest of the region between 06z-12z. Snow will then gradually taper off and end from west to east Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening along with improving CIGS. Around an inch or less is expected across northern Wisconsin with 1 to 3 elsewhere although there is potential for greater than 3 inches across portions of northeast Wisconsin.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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