Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manitowoc, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:41PM Sunday August 25, 2019 6:00 AM CDT (11:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:34AMMoonset 4:06PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Expires:201908251615;;175995 Fzus53 Kgrb 250850 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 350 Am Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-251615- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 350 Am Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Today..SE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy.
Monday..S wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Monday night..S wind 10 to 15 kts veering sw after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ543


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manitowoc city, WI
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location: 44.09, -87.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 250839
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
339 am cdt Sun aug 25 2019
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Monday
issued at 338 am cdt Sun aug 25 2019
quiet weather continues today before becoming more unsettled
overnight through the day Monday. The main focus in the short-term
will be on shower and thunderstorm potential and timing tonight and
Monday. Some of the storms may produce heavy rainfall.

Today: the surface ridge that has been in place across the are over
the past few days will continue to gradually slide off to the east
of the area today. In fact, the surface high pressure center is
expected to be over southeastern quebec this morning, before sliding
into the new england states new brunswick by this afternoon. This
will be ahead of a developing low pressure system and cold front
approaching from the northern plains. Aloft, a ridge axis will shift
eastward into the eastern great lakes through this afternoon as much
of the western great lakes sits roughly on the inflection point
between the ridge to the east and a trough to the west. Plenty of
dry air in place across the area, will lead to a continued
precipitation-day for much of wi. There will be some late morning to
early afternoon CU development along with increasing high clouds
during the afternoon hours. High temperatures today will be similar
to Saturday with highs warming into the mid 70s for most locations,
with a few upper 70 degree readings possible over the central and
east-central portions of wi.

Tonight: clouds will further increase across the area and thicken
overnight. Again, this will be well ahead of the aforementioned
developing surface low and cold front. Current thinking is that most
of the overnight hours will remain dry; however, an initial
shortwave sliding across the plains is expected to shift eastward
into the area overnight. The system is expected to split into two
pieces of energy, one is associated with an mcs, shifting eastward
across the central plains into missouri this morning. The northern
portion of this wave, over eastern nebraska western iowa is the most
likely portion of the wave to slide through at least the south half
of wisconsin. Moisture transport with this wave is not overly
impressive and it will be fighting quite a bit of dry air entrenched
across the area. That, along with only weak forcing (show by
overlaying q-conv and 1000-500mb rh), will lead to only a small
chance of an isolated shower toward daybreak across portions of
central into east-central wisconsin. Very little instability will be
available, so thunder chances look to be very low. Again, this is
only associated with the first shortwave to slide through the area.

Overnight lows will likely be kept a bit warmer with the added cloud
cover and increased southerly flow. Lows are expected to be in the
mid to upper 50s to around 60, warmest central and east-central.

Monday: the much deeper shortwave axis will dig across the northern
plains Monday morning and then push eastward into western wi by 00z
Tuesday. At the surface, the aforementioned surface low will deepen
further as vort MAX rounds the base of the upper-level trough. The
cold front is forecast to reach central wisconsin between 21z 26 and
00z 27. Along and ahead of the cold front, forcing and moisture will
increase, allowing for better chances of showers and thunderstorms
during the mid to late afternoon hours. It is possible that most of
the day could be dry or at most have some isolated showers through
the morning hours with the first shortwave. Instability looks to be
very weak, especially with the front sliding through the area during
the evening and overnight hours.

Models are generally painting out around 500-1000 j kg of MUCAPE in
the late afternoon early evening. Wind shear values are expected to
be around 20 to 30 kts along and just behind the front. The better
shear is expected to remain over southern wisconsin into northern
illinois, where a 50kt mid-level jet is expected to develop. With
limited instability and marginally favorable shear values, it looks
like strong to severe thunderstorm potential is fairly low across
northeast wisconsin throughout the day Monday. Shear vectors are
expected to become parallel to the front during the late afternoon
and early evening hours, which may lead to some training
thunderstorm potential and will likely lead to some heavy rainfall
as the eastward motion will be defined by the speed of the
front forcing. Precipitable water values are expected to be nearly
double the average for this time of year, with values in the 1.5 to
2.0 inch range. This may lead to some ponding of water on roadways
and potentially some localized flooding of poor drainage areas. High
temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
issued at 338 am cdt Sun aug 25 2019
Monday night is the main concern during this part of the forecast
as a mid level trough and surface cold front traverse wisconsin.

Timing remains a bit uncertain as the models seem to be a little
slower bringing the system across the state, but thunderstorms
look like a pretty sure bet. Models didn't show a lot of
instability in the forecast area, but SPC has the southern half
of the area in a marginal risk of severe storms.

The storms may produce heavy rainfall, but since it has generally
been dry across the area for at least a week, this is not as much
of a concern as it would have been earlier in the month. There is
just a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across wisconsin.

Once the approaching system departs expect below normal
temperatures with no widespread significant rainfall into early
next weekend.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1043 pm cdt Sat aug 24 2019
skies will become mostly clear overnight with some mid and high
clouds across portions of central and north-central wisconsin. A
few more lake clouds may drift inland along the lakeshore late
tonight, before fair weather clouds become more widespread again
by around 15z Sunday. Areas out to the west will become broken at
times Sunday afternoon, with bases around 3500 ft. The cumulus
clouds will dissipate Sunday evening, however high clouds will
increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the
west.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Cooley
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 24 mi61 min SSE 17 G 19 68°F 1022.1 hPa (-0.4)58°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 27 mi43 min SSE 15 G 18 67°F 1022.2 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI4 mi65 minSE 710.00 miFair64°F60°F87%1022.6 hPa
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi68 minESE 410.00 miA Few Clouds63°F57°F81%1021.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTW

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmN3CalmSE9E10SE9
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SE10SE9E7SE73CalmCalmCalm----NW3------SE8
1 day agoN5N5N5--N7N7N6NE7N8NE54NE75NE7NE5--N3--NW4--N4Calm--N3
2 days agoNW3N4--N3E4CalmE5E4NE33E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------N4--NW3----

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.