Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manitowoc, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:14PM Thursday December 12, 2019 1:52 AM CST (07:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:49PMMoonset 8:34AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Expires:201912121115;;218467 Fzus53 Kgrb 120314 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 914 Pm Cst Wed Dec 11 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-121115- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 914 Pm Cst Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am cst Thursday through Thursday evening...
Rest of tonight..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow after midnight.
Thursday..S wind 10 to 15 kts increasing to 15 to 25 kts in the morning, then veering sw early in the afternoon. Waves building to 5 to 8 ft. Snow.
Thursday night..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 5 to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of light snow in the evening.
Friday..W wind 5 to 10 kts backing sw in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Cloudy.
LMZ543


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manitowoc city, WI
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location: 44.09, -87.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 120442 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1042 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Thursday Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Subzero wind chills will continue tonight, but it will not be quite as cold as last, with increasing clouds and warm advection. Minimum temperatures will likely be during the evening hours. Some light snow may begin after midnight in the far north but accumulations should be less than an inch.

A solid snowfall is expected Thursday as a 130+ knot 300mb jet moves across southwest Wisconsin with the left exit region producing rising motion across the forecast area. A 50 knot low level jet will produce strong low level warm advection producing additional lift.

Temperatures near the surface and aloft are sufficiently cold so we do not have to worry about precipitation type with this system, though the snow could end as a little freezing drizzle as mid level moisture diminishes during the afternoon. A total snowfall of 2 to 5 inches looks likely for most places, with six inches or more in the far northeast and perhaps a bit less in the southern Fox Valley.

LONG TERM. Thursday Night Through Wednesday Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

An active pattern is setting up as several Pacific systems quickly move across the CONUS. One system to be exiting WI Thursday evening, followed by the next system (Friday night/Saturday). A third system to pass mainly to our south Sunday night/Monday before the mean flow splits over the eastern Pacific by the middle of next week and the weather quiets down. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal through Saturday, then pretty much stay below normal through the middle of next week.

Light snow may linger into early Thursday evening over eastern WI as the clipper/cold front move into Lower MI/southeast WI respectively. The rest of Thursday night will be dry with weak high pressure to reach western WI by daybreak. Time sections show plenty of low-level moisture to hang across northeast WI, thus mainly cloudy skies with patchy fog can be expected. Min temperatures to range from around 10 above zero north-central WI, lower to middle 20s east-central WI. This high pressure moves across the rest of WI Friday morning, however the approach of an elongated area of low pressure and a cold front, could bring a chance of light snow back to at least central WI by Friday afternoon. Still anticipate plenty of clouds over the region with max temperatures on Friday to range from the lower to middle 20s north-central, to around 30 degrees east-central WI.

This system is not a fast mover with the models only moving the broad area of low pressure/cold front into the western Great Lakes on Friday night. The chance for light snow would spread across northeast WI during the night, however lift/forcing/moisture are all rather weak, thus accumulations should be held at an inch or less by daybreak. Min temperatures to range from the middle to upper teens north-central, middle to upper 20s east-central WI. The chance of light snow would continue through at least Saturday morning until the low pressure/cold front pull farther east into Lower MI Saturday afternoon. An additional one-half to one inch of snow is possible before diminishing, with the exception of north- central WI where northwest winds may keep some lake effect snow showers in the forecast through the afternoon. Max temperatures to range from around 20 degrees north-central, to around 30 degrees east-central WI.

The lake effect snow potential would continue into Saturday night over north-central WI, but tend to diminish overnight as Canadian high pressure begins to build into WI. Some breaks in the clouds, plus the fresh snow pack, may take temperatures below zero again over north-central WI with single digit above zero elsewhere (except lower teens along Lake MI). The high pressure pushes into western WI by Sunday afternoon and should provide for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, albeit with well-below normal temperatures. Look for readings to only reach the upper single digits to lower teens central WI, middle to upper teens eastern WI.

Weather looks quiet Sunday night into Monday as one high pressure slips to our east, but another one builds across the Upper Midwest/central Plains. We are also still watching a system that is progged to develop over the southern Plains and lift northeast into the OH/TN Valleys on Monday. The GFS brushes southeast WI with light snow versus the ECMWF which keeps any snow south of the WI/IL border. Max temperatures for Monday to range from the middle teens north-central, to the lower 20s near Lake MI.

Models begin to have issues with the handling of additional Pacific energy and the amplitude of an upper-level ridge over the Rockies. While there does not appear to be any major systems that would impact northeast WI Tuesday or Wednesday, the GFS does send a cold front through WI on Tuesday and could bring some snow showers to the forecast area. The ECMWF does not even have this cold front in our vicinity on Tuesday. The amplitude issue with the upper ridge will determine how cold we get Tuesday night with another cold front expected by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal through mid-week.

AVIATION. for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1042 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Good flying weather expected through much of the overnight hours. MVFR conditions and light snow will arrive late tonight across central and northcentral Wisconsin. IFR weather and snow is expected across the entire region Thursday. The heaviest snow and lowest flight conditions will be north of an AUW to SUE line. Snowfall totals will range from 5 to 7 inches across far northeast Wisconsin, to 3 to 6 inches across much of north- central Wisconsin, and 2 to 4 inches across portions of central and east- central Wisconsin. Conditions will improve Thursday afternoon and evening as the snow ends from west to east, with MVFR conditions developing as the snow winds down. Some freezing drizzle is also possible across central and east-central Wisconsin as the heaviest snow ends.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for WIZ005-010-018>022-030-031-035>040-074.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for WIZ011>013-073.

SHORT TERM . RDM LONG TERM . Kallas AVIATION . Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 24 mi53 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 16°F 1033.2 hPa (-1.0)
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 27 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 9°F 1031.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI4 mi57 minN 010.00 miOvercast12°F5°F73%1033.5 hPa
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi60 minN 010.00 miOvercast14°F5°F67%1033 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTW

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN3NE3NE3CalmNE3N3N5NW7N5NW5N5N3NW4W4W3--NW10NW14N12NW11NW15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.