Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 10:02 AM   Moonset 1:18 AM

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LMZ543 Expires:202405140100;;156538 Fzus53 Kgrb 132059 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 359 pm cdt Mon may 13 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz542-543-140100- sturgeon bay to two rivers wi-two rivers to sheboygan wi- 359 pm cdt Mon may 13 2024
Rest of this afternoon - NE wind 10 to 15 kts. A slight chance of light showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 ft or less. Tonight - NE wind 10 to 20 kts with a few gusts to around 25 kts. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the late evening and overnight. A small craft advisory may be needed. Tuesday - NE wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday night - NE wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight, then subsiding to 1 to 3 ft early in the morning. Wednesday - NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ500
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FXUS63 KGRB 131942 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 242 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- An area of smoke or haze are expected to clear out of the region from northeast to southwest this evening. The smoke or haze may result in poor air quality at times until it clears out.

- Areas of frost are possible over the sandy soil ares of north- central and far northeast Wisconsin tonight and Tuesday night.

- After a dry period on Tuesday and Wednesday, the chance of rain and possibly some storms will return at times from Thursday through next Monday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday

An area of showers is slowly pushing northeast through southeast WI along a nearly stationary surface boundary. Locations south of an Oshkosh to Manitowoc line may see a few light showers this afternoon and evening. A few rumbles of thunder may be hear, but the best chance any thunderstorms will remain well south near Milwaukee.

Smoke and haze from Canadian wildfires will continue to linger over much of the region through this afternoon. Winds shifting around to the northeast and increasing slightly this evening and overnight should disperse the smoke from northeast to southwest. As the smoke disperses skies should become mostly clear through Tuesday.

Patchy areas of frost will be possible tonight across far northern WI, mainly in low laying areas and sandy soil areas. Gradient winds gusting 10-15 mph should be strong enough to prevent frost from becoming widespread, so did not issue a Frost Advisory for tonight.

High pressure settling over Lake Superior Tuesday will bring quiet conditions to the region. Mixing to around 2000ft Tuesday afternoon may bring some drier air to the surface with RHs dropping to 25-30 percent across northern WI during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are tempered with light NE winds only gusting 10-15 mph across northern WI. Temperatures Tuesday will a few degrees cooler than today, with highs in the 60s across the region, expect along the lakeshore were onshore flow will keep highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday

Generally quiet spring weather is expected through midweek, with unsettled weather expected from Wednesday night through early next week. Beyond Thursday, forecast confidence in the details drops significantly due to large spread amongst and within various ensemble systems.

High pressure will keep the weather dry and quiet through Wednesday. Clear skies and light winds could bring some frost across north-central Wisconsin Tuesday night. the highest probabilities will be across the sandy soil regions of north- central Wisconsin.

An approaching low pressure system will bring the chance for rain from west to east Wednesday night into Thursday. The rain will bring relief from the low RH values and help to alleviate fire weather concerns; however, rainfall amounts are expected to be light with only 0.1 to 0.2 inches of QPF expected.

Beyond Thursday, a PV anomaly of varying strengths will track through the northern Great Lakes late in the week. The strength of this system will be the difference between a dry Friday (weaker)
or a wet Friday (stronger). Given the model differences, confidence in the forecast at the end of the week is fairly low.

The forecast for the weekend doesn't get any clearer as the flow flattens out and several weak shortwaves bring the chance for rain at times. Overall it appears the weekend will have more dry periods than wet periods with the potential for unsettled weather anywhere from Sunday to Monday depending on the strength and timing of a stronger low pressure system and attendant mid level trough expected to track through the western Great Lakes region.
Once again, model discrepancies that far out preclude more detail on precipitation timing. However, it does appear that the weekend will bring the warmest temperatures of the week to the region as 80 degree readings will be possible, especially across central and east-central Wisconsin away from the lakeshore.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Smoke/haze drifting over the region this afternoon will reduce vsbys down to low end VFR to MVFR conditions. Winds shifting around to the northeast this evening should disperse the smoke and return vsbys back to P6SM. Light to moderate NE winds and VFR conditions are then expected overnight through the end of the TAF period.

There is a slight chance for a few vicinity rain showers this afternoon and evening at MTW as on going showers currently along a stalled frontal boundary in SE WI drift northeast. Don't expect any thunder with these shower.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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